저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 이번 영상은 ULTA·AVGO 실적 시간외 매매와 바이오 종목 셋업을 소개하고, 9월·10월 조정 가능성에 대비하는 트레이딩 교육 강의를 홍보하는 내용이다. 실적 시간외 매매: ULTA는 시간외 약 9달러 하락, 예상 변동폭 20달러 대비 비교적 양호하다고 봤고, AVGO는 예상 변동폭 12달러 대비 약 8달러 하락한 상태에서 매수했다. 규칙은 초기 급락 시 예상 변동폭 부근에서 매수해 지지를 기대하는 것이며 소규모로 진입했다고 설명했다. 바이오 종목: VRTX는 갭상승 후 둥근 바닥 형태로 스퀴즈 시작 조짐이 보이며 가장 선호한다고 언급했다. BIIB도 스퀴즈 셋업 중이라 주시 대상이다. REGN은 거래량 적은 상태에서 돌파가 나왔다. 바이오 섹터는 변동성이 커 실적 매매에 변덕스럽다고 평가했다. 나스닥·시장 전망: 나스닥 차트에 큰 스퀴즈가 걸려 있으며 방향은 양방향 모두 가능하다. 아마존·구글 등 일부 구성종목은 꺾이고 운송주는 급락했으나, 풋/콜 비율 10일 이평은 매우 강세로 혼조라고 봤다. 롱 스트래들도 검토 대상이다. 단기 매매 전략: 주간·일간 이평 정렬이 깨져 거친 장이므로 보유 기간을 3주~3일에서 3일~3시간 수준으로 줄이는 것이 낫다고 주장했다. 모멘텀 전환과 확신(conviction)이 생기면 진입하고 목표가 또는 모멘텀 상실 시 청산한다. 예시 거래는 옵션 1150에 매수해 1290에 매도한 소폭 수익이었다. 장기 조정 전망: 올해가 7로 끝나는 해이며 과거 70년간 9~10월에 하락 기회가 컸다고 언급했다. 시장은 계단식으로 오르고 엘리베이터처럼 내린다는 관점으로, 9~10월 조정 가능성을 대비해야 한다고 강조했다. 이 과정에서 지표 기반 객관적 판단을 강조했다. 강의 홍보: 토요일 강의와 10x 바 지표, 녹화본, 옵션 기초 과정, 구독 패키지(997달러 업그레이드 등)를 안내했다.
다듬은 글
so for Thursday's trading as we go into Friday there's a couple of interesting setups on the long side largely biotech has been ignoring the recent weakness and Varitek Pharmaceuticals very nice pattern here after this nice kind of a gap up and and easing back here you got this nice kind of rounded action you get the starts of a squeeze and I like the prospects of this working its way higher for biotech in general I bebe you can see it's hooked up here we don't necessarily have a squeeze or anything like that setting up but if we look at bi I be you do have one setting up so that's what I want to keep an eye on and then last but not least re GN also had a nice little breakout today of all those I like VRTX the best this move on re GN is on very light volume and as we've seen these biotech stocks can be a little fickle for earnings trades we had Ulta after-hours you can see right now it's down nine dollars we'll take a look at that here in a second on an expected move of twenty dollars so in relation to its expected move not too bad and then AVG o which had an expected move of $12 currently from its close is down about eight alright so let's take a look at these so for AVG oh we did buy it after hours the rule of thumb here is that on an initial spike down you can buy near the expected move with the idea that would act as support obviously you're doing small size you don't wanna risk too much on that but so far so good on that and then we also did the same thing with Alta same thing here not really looking for too much more after this but kind of a no harm no foul with this small size holding it the fun thing is that if bi you get to the morning and you've actually come all the way back because remember the market makers priced this in such a way that the best thing that can happen to them is nothing like they like it if it opens up flat and so if they can push it up to flat so they can suck the life out of all those at the money spreads then this would benefit our long stock position that we bought down here last but not least we do have a massive squeeze sitting up on the Nasdaq chart this could go either way if you look at some of the components of the Nasdaq some of them are rolling over ie Amazon Google if you look at the transports the transports are getting crushed okay so if you look at it just from that angle then you know the bet would be right let's just bet at all that this market is going to roll over however if you look at the ten day moving average of the put/call ratio it's extremely bullish okay so you have a very mixed market here and this is something that we would look at even potentially doing a long straddle on okay but there's some other ways to navigate this market so another way to play these markets or to trade these markets is just to consider the ebbs and flows that were on okay so when you're in a nice uptrend you know all the moving averages are stacked in the weekly and daily charts are in alignment the the waves you're trying to catch are longer period waves you know three days on the short side to like three weeks and of course this is from a swing trading perspective and what's happened right now is that while the the bullish argument is still intact on the weekly charts it's not on the daily okay what that happens is that creates rougher seas okay and to do that instead of three days to three weeks you want to tighten your kind of trade time down three hours okay to three days now if you're working full time obviously you want to look at trades that can last a couple of days and if you are trading full time you can look at trades it lasts a couple of hours okay so if you're looking at trades that last a couple of hours so this is one we did in the video that lasted approximately in terms of trading hours about seven seven to eight trading hours we held it overnight and what we did on this is that what we're looking for is a momentum shift plus conviction okay and what happened with this is when we picked it up we got a momentum shift plus conviction that got us into the trade and then we're staying in the trade until one we get to our target of 169 or there is a loss of momentum okay and so we just kind of rode this way we almost got to the target ended up getting out once we switched momentum and you know Mike bought options for 1150 and sold them for 1290 okay so it wasn't a fantastic trade by any stretch but in this market that's the kind of stuff that we want to look at if we're looking at trying to catch these smaller ebbs and flows and not scalping you know again this is a trade we held overnight it I know I don't wanna I want to you know something a little bit more meat on the bone but this is this way we were able to stay in the trade until it ends now WD is a trade I'm in and you can see what I'm looking for here is we're in now we've got a squeeze down here and what I'm looking for is that this will actually push into momentum plus conviction and if this happens you can see what happens here I mean this turns in it can turn into a hugely powerful run and that's what we're waiting for right here so you can still use this and try to anticipate that this is what's going to happen right and then if it doesn't that's fine as long as it's staying in yellow that's kind of neutral if it gets the red we just get out what we're looking to see if this can transition - yellow which is neutral into conviction + momentum which can turn into a homerun trade this also does work for larger term trends okay if you look at Chipotle's this is kind of what I've envisioned at some point in September or October I am looking for a bigger not a crash I don't like to use the term crash but a bigger correction and this is what we'd be looking for on the Nasdaq we're you know we've gone from positive to neutral and neutral you know you can it's easy to kind of get excited about something that goes into neutral and it's over but once you start getting conviction and momentum to the downside this is why we say that the you know the markets take the stairs up and the elevator down and that's what we're looking for and that is the kind of stuff that we want to be aware of going into the September and October now this is a class I'm gonna be teaching on Saturday so here's how it works and this does include the indicator as I showing you I'll explain how that works as well but we're gonna be looking for ways in this market environment that's changing okay we did have a nice quiet bull market but now we're changing into what I would call a more normal market where you've got forces tugging at both sides okay so we want to know how to know when stocks are likely to explode or implode okay the whole idea of 10x trades is we're able to catch them it doesn't matter which way they're going okay and especially with options I mean you can catch some really big moves using options we're gonna be talking about a fairly extensive a couple of checklists where we look for first of all anticipating what I would just call rare situations we are in a situation where we've got a year that ends in seven going into September October and every time that's happened over the last 70 years we've had these huge trading opportunities to the downside when that happens first we don't want to be run over abort by it second we want to capture it because that can make your entire year so we want to learn how to recognize these potential setups and this includes what I would call a Black Swan event in real time okay those two are kind of lined up there we're gonna be talking about some of the bigger trades that we've made together in the past and this tool that we've put together is designed to help us recognize what's happening and more importantly being able to hold on for the ride probably the biggest thing I see people doing in terms of trade management is getting out too soon okay and then what's even worse is having conviction that something is gonna happen and then it doesn't happen and this tool it translates are our conviction from us to the market okay we don't want to have conviction that the market was is gonna do something we want the market to tell us that's going to do something and so it makes it very very objective okay when to say no there's very simple rules when to not even get into a trade or when to just do neutral things like iron condors and this is actually really important how to tell a base hit from a homerun advanced in advanced the trade we did on the video that was a base hit we knew it from the beginning we weren't trying to get a homerun y-you know that's the stuff that we want to look at okay so what is going on here so on Saturday I'm gonna be teaching the class this is a I think it's a very reasonable investment and for this you're going to get all the details of the class and all the setups that we just discussed in how to do it you can of course get a recording another class if you can't be there on Saturday and of course a recording to go back and review you also get a copy of the 10x bar indicator now good news obviously if you have thinkorswim or if you have tradestation this is something that will be ready to go to those platforms but if you've got fidelity or Schwab and you want to keep that guess what we're gonna have this ready for trading view as well which is a free charting service for those you that are newer we're including an options foundation course and a back to basics course in case you're kind of intimidated by options and I'll get you up to speed you can upgrade to 997 and that includes everything in the Saturday class plus three days of live trading a follow up day for questions plus we're also adding a new scan that will also help you find these opportunities and you can have access to three months of the 10x scan ok and then for this upgrade you get all that stuff plus a year membership to our entire scan including the 10x skin so this is going to be an awesome class it'll be a lot of fun if you go to simpler trading comm forward slash formula you choose the package that's right for you and I look forward to working with you on Saturday
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