저자: John · 외국인
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결론: 영상 발화자는 엔비디아 실적 쇼크 이후 시장이 추가 하락 후 반등 가능성을 보며, 단기 반등 뒤 하락 전환을 예상함. 실적 및 시장 반응: 엔비디아는 예상 변동폭 $18 대비 약 $32 하락(202→165)으로 실적 충격이 컸다고 설명. 어플라이드머티리얼즈는 예상 변동폭 수준으로 비교적 선방. 나스닥 선물: 6920에서 마감 후 6880까지 약 40포인트 하락했다가 일부 회복. 전날 큰 반등이 있었음. 시장 심리 지표: 풋/콜 비율 10일 이동평균이 높아 모두 숏 포지션이라는 해석. 극단적 숏 쏠림은 반등 가능성을 시사한다고 주장. 전망: 내일 반도체 약세 가능성을 언급하면서도, 추수감사절까지 반등 후 이후 하락 전환 예상. 신고가 경신은 당분간 어렵다고 봄. 헤드앤숄더 바닥 패턴의 넥라인 돌파 가능성을 언급. 리스크: 반등이 지속적 상승으로 이어지지 않을 수 있으며 반도체 섹터 부진이 변수. 헤지펀드 숏 데이터: 대형 공매도 포지션을 추적하는 Edge 서비스 소개. 숏 증가 종목에 편승하는 전략 설명. 대마 관련주(CGC, TLRY) 숏 포지션 손실 사례 등 언급. 페이스북, 보잉, 알리바바, 넷플릭스, 엔비디아 등 숏 데이터 언급. 홍보: 월 $97 구독 서비스 및 30일 체험 안내.
다듬은 글
all right hey everybody this is John let's take a look at earnings we had Applied Materials in Nvidia so the expected move on Nvidia was $18 and we closed at 202 here we are at 165 so that's an that's a move of uh $32 that's yeah and uh so almost two times the expected move so that's a pretty much a disaster for NVIDIA and then Applied Materials Also let's see their expected move was let me see what their expected move was Amat was $230 and so they're down about about the expected move so it's holding on to it pretty good and then the question is how is the NASDAQ futures how are they doing and you know they closed here at 6920 with Nvidia they sold off to 6880 so about 40 points and since then theyve covered a little bit um and of course they had a fantastic rally today so OB you know it'll be interesting tomorrow obviously semis are going to have a tough time but what we want to see is how the markets react all right so let's look at the key kind of Statistics here that I like to look at to gauge the markets and I know kind of beat this horse a little bit but I think it's critical when the 10day moving average of the put call ratio remember when it's down here you know below 080 it kind of just means that the market is very long and if the market Market is very long there's not really anybody left to buy okay now that could be a little decline or it could turn into a much bigger decline along the same lines if we're up here and everybody's short and no one else is left to sell okay it kind of kind of marks the bottom you know um so here everybody's long you know here everybody's short all right so here we are again everybody's short and um so if everybody's short then is the market going to roll over and die from here or are we going to Rally to the point and I you know I new highs I doubt it but are we going to Rally to the point here where we can at least bring this back down and then at that point we roll over and die that's what I think is going to happen so I do think that uh so today you know I think we rally into Thanksgiving it doesn't mean that we go straight up I know nvidia's down and stuff like that too so obviously tomorrow is going to be pretty important we do have kind of this head and shoulders bottom but of course everybody can see this as well and then here's the neckline so the idea here is that we could at least potentially test that neckline and pop through it and then from there we'll see okay again I don't think we're going to be making new all-time highs anytime soon but I do think that the path of least resistance here is setting up to be higher and uh okay so there we go there all right uh a couple things I want to show you guys a couple questions on edge we've done a lot of updates to this and we got a lot more data in here so just going to go over here and click on this and just kind of how it works and so just to show you real quick how it's organized uh they've organized all the data and stuff like that here also too I just want to let you know before I dive into this real quick for those of you that are doing the trial that has been extended out to about December 1st all right so you still have um a couple more weeks to kind of check out the new format and everything like that so if you go to Edge dashboard that kind of shows you the updates and news that come up um one of the ones that I used on this let see there's the videos um one of the ones I used on this was they showed all the increasing short interest on the cannabis stocks and with that I was able to switch from my long trades to short and that was something that we highlighted that was great uh you go edge updates and news then you'll see this uh kind of setting up there so this is one and and stuff like this is what I find pretty fascinating so on this one cannabis short sellers nearly recoup Wednesday's losses all right so what does this mean so you can click on this and come in here and it's just like all right so so what are they talking about here and what's interesting here with this is that they have information that you just can't get anywhere else and so for example cgc it shows us like okay currently there's $835 Million worth a stock that's short okay um over the last quarter that's increased by 300 an additional 351 million shares we can see that so far hedge funds are down $39 million Mark to Market okay um and then TL y same thing they're down $336 million so collectively in this the top 10 stocks here there's $3.3 billion worth of shorts and right now they're losing $835 million and so the question here is you know is this are they right or are they wrong okay and then I I have a video on this you can click and kind of get a sense of that but how I use this stuff is I can come over here to cgc and I know that they're increasing their short position right and if I know that they're increasing their short position then I can kind of look at the normal es and flows here and say okay well if they're increasing their short position here into this and what we've done is Rally back up to the midpoint well I want to get on the same side as the hedge funds here okay and then at this point I'm expecting that any rally to the midpoint is actually going to continue to fall all right so just because remember that when there's High short interest it doesn't mean that it's going to be a short squeeze means sometimes that they're right okay and I just then I come back to the charting structure so if I see high short interest and the moving averages are stacked positive and prices like this great I think there's going to be a short squeeze but if the short interest is increasing and the structure is now you know like this where the moving averages are stacked negative or they're mixed guess what they're typically right okay and that's what I want to know and then the other part on this that I really like here is the edge watch list and this is something that you can start to get kind of a hang of in terms of I like to look at this so we've got a you know the stocks that we like to trade that we'll like to look at here and so we'll look at here is just say okay like Facebook what's happening with Facebook well over the last week an additional net 205,000 shares have been shorted okay we can see that the total here and so what I've noticed on this is that when a stock is in a downtrend you know it's kind of you know say it closes below its 21 if the short interest is in inreasing every week all right and you can I mean essentially you can see the difference every day or get this information daily you essentially pile on with them okay they're right that's the kind of stuff and then on the other hand I also like to see it's like okay well if they're you know right now they're increasing shorts on Boeing they're increasing shorts on Alibaba um on Netflix what's interesting here is they actually covered half a million shares all right so was Netflix now kind of starting to bottom out and then uh this was something that was up updated you know yesterday and we can see for NVIDIA going into earnings they actually added an additional 429,000 shares short as we saw today after hours the stock dropped $36 so these hedge Fones are smart and a lot of times they're right so when we see this stuff we don't want to fight them we want to join them all right and so that's what this data is for and then we can say okay great we got our watch list of stocks that we like to trade we have IBD 50 um you know stocks that we like like on that list and it's the same thing so there's a lot of there's a lot of really cool stuff here and again if you've been on the trial it's extended out to December 1st you have more time to kind of dive in and use this all right so if you're seeing this and you're thinking like man I would like to check this out because this is institutional level data that has never been available to the retail Trader before literally giving you an edge um you can sign it up and try it's $97 a month um this is the um at the this point you can kind of dive in for 97 bucks try it for 30 days and see what you think obviously you can cancel any time uh but this is a game Cher for the retail world this is not information that up to this point has ever been available before the short interest you see on other sites that's weeks old sometimes 30 days old they have up to theate information in terms of not only what the shorts are today but how the funds are positioned for it are they winning on this trade are they losing on this trade and again it's just inside that you just can't get anywhere else so pretty good stuff all right guys have a good night see you at the next update
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