저자: Daniel · 외국인
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팔란티어 2분기 실적은 매출 성장 13%로 약하고 기업가치(매출 대비 약 18배 선행)는 부담스럽다고 평가. 3분기 연속 GAAP 흑자와 고객 수 38% 증가, 매출 가이던스 상향(22억 달러, 16%)은 긍정 요인. S&P500 편입 기대가 단기 수급 요인으로 언급. AIP 플랫폼과 방산 계약(특수작전사령부 4억 달러)이 성장 스토리로 제시되나, 현재 밸류에이션을 정당화하려면 상당히 높은 성장이 필요하다고 판단. 결론적으로 펀더멘털은 약하고 스토리는 흥미롭지만 기대가 과열됐다는 입장.
다듬은 글
palantir reported their second quarter 2023 earnings sending the stock up slightly after hours and if you look at the stock year to date 2023 the stock is up over 180 percent causing investors to wonder how much is this is due to some sort of speculative froth versus how much is the underlying fundamentals of the business I'm going to cover both in this video to try to understand where can palantir stock go in the years ahead if this is your first time tuning in my name is Daniel you're watching unrivaled investing if I'm a little bit off in this video I apologize I'm getting over coveted that said I'm still hoping to dive into their latest earnings to help you understand what's going on with palantir stock so let's go on to understand what's what's going on here so I ask AI ticker chat first month is free which leverages artificial intelligence to help investors get up to speed on terms of researching stocks I go why might palantir go up on these results I'm selecting their latest press release this is this earning statement and it calls out a couple of different things one is their third consecutive quarter of Gap profitability is a big component that Alex carp has been talking about for some time how they are a profitable business how they're keeping their costs under control they're growing their revenues and they're rapidly growing their customer base you know growing their customer account by 38 year over year that is a very favorable data point to show but when I look at the actual fundamentals diving in a little bit deeper you know I gotta say I it's sort of this theme that I'm looking at which is for several quarters now the fundamentals have actually not been amazing I would say they're closer to weak or even soft but the story that Alex carp has and the potential is great so I'd say weak fundamentals great potential and that's really what it what it comes down to when I'm looking at with you know a palantir because when you're looking at the results you know you could see 13 Revenue growth not amazing in my opinion for company trading at in something like 18 times forward revenue and you split up you know what's actually driving their revenue gov government's the biggest component growing 15 percent commercial which is what I'd expect to be really accelerating isn't it's only growing ten percent versus the government business which is growing 15 so you know maybe this picks up maybe this starts accelerating in the quarters ahead management once again you know reiterating how they're increasingly profitable you know in this case they've achieved Gap operating income now for two consecutive quarters uh where they say we will become eligible and this is from Alex karp's letter for inclusion in the S P 500 after we report our financial results for the third quarter so after they have another quarter of Gap profitability they think they'll have can be listed with S P 500 so then you could get some sort of force buying so I think this point alone might be part of the reason why palantir stock is up on what I'd argue is otherwise soft results is because of this idea that you could have forced buyers as it gets rebalanced into the S P 500 let's say in the quarters ahead but when you look look at their profitability I mean look four million in operating profit last quarter 10 million this quarter you're not talking about dramatic margins I mean for a company with a 40 billion dollar market cap saying yes we did 10 million dollars in operating profits it's like woohoo you know I learned how to ride a tricycle at a certain age it's just not impressive anymore and I think it's you know with palantir 40 billion dollars you start expecting you know to actually start delivering real profitability and not just super slim margins now I'm sure they're they're heading in that direction you know favorably step by step but it is an important data point I think the the aspect of the great part of what's going on with palantir is the story and you know Alex carp spins a very good story talk about the scale of opportunity in front of us has never been more significant and he's talking about the artificial intelligence platform which they recently launched just three months ago which leverages large language models to operate within the confines of the Enterprise and on privately held data so the way to think about this is instead of because most data is private data that's held at individual companies they don't necessarily want to share that information with let's say opening eyes chat gbt that said they do want to have open AI chat GPT help them sort through their data and ask questions about their business I mean you want to have a bunch of really smart AIS helping run businesses but you don't necessarily want a third party like Microsoft or openai going through that data so how do you sort of work through that that you can have your own private AI going through your own private data and that's their solution here with artificial and their artificial intelligence platform which is leveraging you know enabling various different large language models so I do expect this is going to be a huge opportunity for them they talk about how they've already you know they're already working with more than 100 organizations and have the demand for this platform is unlike anything we have seen in the past 20 years and that they have more than 300 additional Enterprises to deploy AIP or artificial intelligence platform within their organs so I I strongly suspect this could help re-accelerate the growth in this business so even though their growth has decelerated so significantly over the last few years from 30 growth to now closer to 13 growth this is such a huge opportunity that maybe you start seeing a re-acceleration and I think that's what you're starting to see here with their Outlook because they're raising their guidance another data point that could cause the stock price to go higher is you know management saying hey we're raising our net revenue guidance uh for the year to 2.2 billion so 16 growth so that does you know reinforce this idea you're going from 13 growth to a you know mid to high teens growth maybe it can be higher in the years ahead you know with this huge Runway with their AIP uh you know artificial intelligence uh platform the question is where does palantir stock go from here first in full disclosure this is not Financial advice and also a quick plug I recently bought more of a stock that I think is over 300 upside potential that I called out to my subscribers at unrivaledinvesting.com so if you're looking to take charge of your investment Journey with compelling ideas Market insights and exclusive Discord Community available for annual subscribers come check it out that's unrivaledinvesting.com I also have educational materials available as well and so when you look at palantir there's never a shortage of exciting data points and developments going on I mean just earlier this quarter Alex carp penned an op-ed for the New York Times about our Oppenheimer moment the creation of AI weapons talk about how this is an arms race of a different kind and it has begun and in that he actually draws a direct comparison between the various different large language models to nuclear devices showing what in my opinion is sort of a ridiculous chart keep in mind this is from his op-ed showing the explosive yielding kilotons of various different nuclear devices and how it you know it started you see in 1945 versus 1962 and you just reach this tremendous you know exponential curve here in terms of the size of these explosions and then you're saying well we're he's drawing a comparison to machine learning systems and how you know we have this exponential growth and the number of parameters for these models and we just don't know how powerful potentially even dangerous these models can be in the future and you're going to want to have someone like palantir working with the US government to make sure that you're leveraging these models to work for Western governments and he makes a good point of calling out yes some of these you know largest published models so they are actually Chinese models so you know very clear on where he thinks you know the geopolitical risk is with with China versus the us but he does back it up with some really valuable data points in terms of yeah this is this is a huge opportunity and by the way we're winning Real contracts for example in may they announced a multi-year contract with the United States Special Operations Command for over 400 million dollars to support their AI initiatives so clearly this is another growth driver for palantir and it's not only going to come from businesses looking to leverage their AI platform but also the US government uh and also you know Defense Forces to say hey we want to make sure we have top-notch ai deployed and ready for whatever comes next now thinking about palantir stock this is my hypothetical valuation framework of course the stock price can go way higher way lower but I look at this and honestly with a over 40 billion dollar market cap it's really hard for me to get excited about palantir at this point I think if you're a bull with palantir at these prices I think you need to believe that they're going to be able to re-accelerate rate their growth well beyond where they currently are maybe get to growth you know in 20 plus maybe even closer to 30 percent because penciling out 22 growth and 25 profit margins keep in mind they're closer to break even right now assuming they get to 25 profit margins assuming a nearly 30 times earnings multiple and you're still under water five years from now you know using this valuation framework so I think if you're a bull you need to believe much greater you know fundamental growth than what's actually being delivered at this point um maybe they deliver it but it's just too hard for me at this point and that's why I get to this you know this perspective on palantir which is that the fundamental story with palantir when I look at their sales and I look at their profits I'd say it's weak it's soft the valuation is not compelling but when I look at the story I think it's very intriguing very exciting the idea of you know hundreds of Institutions looking to leverage large language models on their private data and think about us Defense Forces needing to leverage you know AI to help make sure that they have you know ready deployed and quickly can counter any sort of you know initiative around the world so I I look at this and I'm thinking it's such an exciting story but how much of that story is resulting in sort of hype in froth that really could cause investors to be in a world of pain or even just have an unpleasant ride for let's say the next five years and so it's it's hard for me to see why this would continue to do really well other than if you just get tremendous hype where you know if something goes from expensive to crazy expensive to just bananas and so I you know I just wonder you know if you'll see that with palantir personally I want to find easier things where you know it's the Warren Buffett quote where he's he's you know he Compares it to like you know jumping in the the Olympics where you don't want to have to find seven foot hurdles to jump over and that he wants to find one foot hurdles and I'm looking at you know palantir where investors are assuming you know nearly 20 times forward sales that's like a that's like a 10 20 foot hurdle that you have to jump over and that's just extremely difficult I think as an investor while I like that sexy story I'd rather find something where it's a lower hurdle to still get an attractive return if you disagree I'd absolutely love to hear it in the comments below and thanks so much for tuning into unrivaled investing please make a point of hitting that Thumbs Up Hit That subscribe button thanks so much
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