저자: UnrivaledInvesting진행자—제목은BillAckman발언리뷰형식이나발언자중심영상 · 외국인
요약 보기
전쟁 종료 기대로 증시 반등. Ackman은 Fannie Mae가 매우 저평가, 10배 가능성 언급. Burry도 동조. 진행자는 Meta가 AI 투자 부담 속 약 15배 핵심 PER로 저평가라 보고 상승 여지를 제시. Amazon은 AWS 성장과 2,000억 달러 capex를 근거로 적정~저평가 수준으로 평가하며 Ackman식 '매우 저렴' 주장에는 동의하지 않음. 금지된 투자 조언 면책 문구 포함.
다듬은 글
The markets are ripping higher on renewed prospects of peace in the Middle East and yet just within the last day or so you've seen billionaire investor Bill Ackman calling out how some of the highest quality businesses in the world are trading at extremely cheap prices. Ignore the mainstream media. One of the most one-sided wars in history that will end well for the US and the world and we have the potential for a large peace dividend.
One of the best times in a long time to buy quality. These are the words of Bill Ackman. As an addendum he said, "Oh yeah, by the way, Fannie and Freddie are stupidly cheap. Asymmetry at its best. They could be a 10x and it could happen soon." Michael Burry, famed short investor, big short investor, tagging along saying, "Yeah, cannot emphasize how rare this is in this market." Bill Ackman, Michael Burry, both saying, "Yeah, there's a lot of upside potential with Fannie Mae stock." This is the legacy Fannie Mae shareholders that still own a piece in the in the business.
Showing, "Yeah, these favorable positive comments resulted in Fannie Mae stock jumping 50% plus during the trading hours. It's given back a little bit since then and overall investors are saying, "Hmm, maybe there is a lot of upside." I've actually talked about Fannie Mae before and it really just comes down to how much do you think the government's going to take.
The original deal was the government would take 80% for effectively bailing them out, but they are still under government watch as via conservatorship. And so if you think it ultimately shakes out to somewhere between 5 and 18% that is tremendous upside potential for Fannie Mae given that it is an entity an entity that's generating around 14, 15 billion dollars in profitability.
If ultimately the government takes, let's say, less than 20% or excuse me, less than 80 85% you know, if if ultimately the legacy shareholders own somewhere between 14% and 18%, then you're talking about a stock price that could be in the range of maybe 25 to $55, maybe more per share depending on the multiple that investors give for this utility type business.
I've talked about Fannie Mae before. Obviously, this is a hypothetical exercise because a lot depends on what does the government do and arguably a big part of this uncertainty has been because of this war in Iran. So, if that goes off the table, there is a chance that President Trump can have renewed focus to bring Fannie Mae out of conservatorship and you could see it reset higher.
We'll see how that plays out. But then looking at Bill Ackman's broader portfolio cuz he's talking about, you know, extremely cheap holdings. The two holdings that he was buying during the fourth quarter of 2025, so that's as of the end of December 31st, 2025, the two of his positions that he was buying more was Amazon and Meta.
He did own very sizable multi-billion dollar stakes in Google, Uber, and Brookfield, but for this video, let's focus on Amazon and more recently Meta, the newest purchase in his portfolio. So, Meta stock losing between 10 and 20% so far this year rebounding sharply today once again on that renewed prospects of the Iran war winding down, possibly oil prices dropping a lot lower.
That hasn't quite happened yet, but possible. You know, it's still around $100 per barrel at the time of this video. Looking at Meta, even though the stock is down, the fundamentals arguably keep marching ahead and you could see just tremendous improvement in terms of their advertising revenue going from around $40 billion in the fourth quarter of 2023 to nearly $60 billion as the fourth quarter 2025.
And you could see their profitability over that same time period for that core segment, their family of apps, has grown from around 21 billion to around 31 billion. So, nearly 50% growth. So, this is just an incredible business, lots of free cash flow that it generates. And looking at the business, there's been some noise that investors have to digest, such as his investments around the metaverse.
And also the announcement, look, you know, they're going to have to shape, you know, looking at these tens of billions of dollars that have been invested in Reality Labs. I think Mark is starting to say, wait a second, I'm not seeing the traction I want. And so, looking at deep cuts for Reality Labs, thousands of people laid off, but also redirecting those investments towards the wearable space, the glasses space, where he has seen strong demand, strong traction, where people say, yeah, I love having AI integrated into something that I wear.
So, that I think is part of the vision. And a key part of why, arguably, investors might be turning bullish on this, or more bullish, even though the stock has sold off, is the fact that these Reality Labs might lot these losses from Reality Labs, which is very sizable, tens of billions of dollars a year, they're saying, yeah, it will likely peak soon, and then we'll gradually reduce our losses going forward.
So, that's a big development, saying, yeah, this is you're going to be seeing growth in their profitability, arguably, go even faster than their sales because of this dynamic. They're cutting their losses in Reality Labs segment. And it is important to understand Mark Zuckerberg's perspective. He had a memo on personal superintelligence, where he believes developing superintelligence is now in sight.
This is a memo from July of 2025, July 2025, and he makes the point that, look, Meta believes strongly in building personal superintelligence that empowers everyone using the resources and the expertise to build the massive infrastructure required. He views this building of super intelligence as undeniable.
This improvement slow for now, but it will make this progress as the AI systems improve themselves. I think this is super important for investors to reflect on because he's making a bet saying, "Yeah, I I strongly believe in this, and I'm going to back it up with the cash flows of this company." You could see their capital expenditures have roughly doubled from 40 billion to 72 billion in 2025.
So, just shy of doubling. And then they're saying for 2026, we're actually expecting it to be closer to 115 to 135 billion. So, another step change in investment, and that's once again tied to their bet on their meta super intelligence lab saying, "We want to build this. We want to be one of the winners here." And this is an all-in bet for them because you can see their free cash flow or their operating cash flow was only around 116 billion last year.
For So, for them to talk about that, they are going all in on this using up pretty much all their potential cash flow to fund this super intelligence bet. And investors in Meta do need to not only stomach that bet, they also need to stomach the reality that society from a litigious standpoint is increasingly turning on these huge platforms.
And Meta has been increasingly noting it as well in terms of their risks and disclaimers calling out that look, we might face up to hundreds of billions of dollars in potential legal proceedings and lawsuits that, you know, could be material to the financial condition of this company. I mean, just recently, just I believe earlier this month, uh jurors awarded about $4 million uh award that Meta must pay due to saying the design and operation of their platforms, you know, are effectively dangerous for minors, they're you know, overly addictive.
It's negligence. And so, it is interesting to think how can this impact the business? A lot of people are going to see this like piranhas with blood in the water. They're going to get on board and I this could be like the modern-day tobacco sort of stigma but also sizable litigation. I would expect this to play out in the coming years.
I don't think it's just something you could just hand wave away. And I think that's part of the reason why it trades where it does because management's saying, "Look, for the first quarter we're actually expecting around 30% revenue growth." That's incredible for a business this size. Now, couple percentages of that is due to favorable currency dynamics, but their family of apps, excluding the unprofitable reality labs segment, should do, you know, probably around a hundred billion dollars of after-tax profit equivalent from those segments.
So, the advertising of Facebook and Instagram. First is roughly 1.5 trillion-dollar market cap. So, 100 billion for family of apps, that means it's trading around 15 times core earnings. So, I can understand why Bill Ackman would say, "Yeah, these are, you know, incredibly cheap companies." He's saying, "If you're willing to stomach the litigation risk for something like Meta, if you're willing to stomach this all-in bet on super intelligence, it is arguably quite a cheap setup." You know, this is a company with 3 billion plus users, growing, still rapidly taking market share in the advertising space.
So, if you believe, "Hey, either the bet on super intelligence in AI labs will eventually wind down or that they will generate an attractive return," that's sort of a heads I win a lot, tails I don't lose much sort of dynamic when the core business is still trading at around 15 times. So, I can understand Bill Ackman's perspective on this.
And this is why Flash, my free-to-use AI assistant that looks up any company in the world, podcast, videos, slides, it's effectively saying, "Yeah, I think looking at Meta." This is once again this AI looking at Meta saying, "Yeah, maybe there's up to 500% plus upside over time, maybe 40% downside depending on how much the business is impacted by, you know, let's say legal legislation, you know, some some sort of challenges there." So then the next is the follow-up question on Amazon, which is the other position that Bill Ackman was buying in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Before we get into that, first of all, recognize none of this is financial advice. I'm just sharing a few of my thoughts as we look at these holdings. Also, a quick plug, it's such a pleasure working with you. You're definitely the real deal. You know what you're doing and seem to have some luck on your side.
That was from Michael G, a member of the Unrivaled Investing community. And then also, another member wrote, "Joining your membership has been one of my best investments both in terms of value and personal growth. Gradually adopting your ideas has made a significant and noticeable difference in my investing journey." That was Venu.
If you're looking for compelling ideas or like this video, you should check out Unrivaled Investing because I do make exclusive videos for my subscribers when I am finding quality companies that I want to buy. And just recently, I did a video earlier this past month on a company I was buying and I plan on making another exclusive video for members very soon on another stock that I was buying.
So check that out on Unrivaled Investing. So next is Amazon. Amazon, similar to Meta, down around 10% year-to-date. And you could see this is a company that's still posting incredible traction, incredible fundamental improvements. You're seeing their core operating profitability, their operating income up nearly up roughly 17% to around 80 billion on a trailing 12-month perspective as of the fourth quarter of 2025.
This is just incredible for this business. And you could see this business is just it's operating across the board. You could see 10% growth North America, 13% growth in international, and then 20% growth in AWS in acceleration from 19% the year the prior year. These are incredible figures and you could see the majority of their core profitability, their operating income, roughly $46 billion is coming from 46 out of 80 is coming from AWS.
And this is an important dynamic for investors to think about, which is that AWS is growing faster. So, I would expect AWS to become even more of the driver of Amazon shares in the years ahead even though everyone most consumers know it from the retail perspective. You have the Amazon store, you're getting your packages, you know, the merchant base fulfillment.
That is the reality a minority perspective relative to this the success of AWS, which is really remarkable. Now, looking at you know, AWS, you see this company that has, you know, rapidly been investing similar to Meta, rapidly investing in their infrastructure. Think about all the demands from AI, buying up these servers.
And you can see it's gone from around 53 billion to 130 billion last year. So, they're rapidly tapping out their cash flows. And then for 2026, they're expecting 200 billion in capital expenditures, another step change, going all in again. And this is really built on a real and rapidly growing AWS backlog.
So, I'd argue it's not entirely speculative. Apologies for the dog barking in the background. It's about building custom silicon chips to drive a cost edge versus Nvidia, you know, Nvidia chips which can be more expensive. And it depends really on on potentially new revenue streams as well. And one of those really interesting revenue streams is Amazon's investment and expecting to launch, you know, project Kuiper.
And that is going to be a constellation of over 3,000 low Earth orbit satellites designed to deliver global broadband internet, which uniquely integrates directly with Amazon Web Services. The bundle both the connectivity that you have with something like Starlink, but also the cloud services into a single ecosystem.
This is going to be the first of its kind because it's combining that connectivity with the processing power of AWS. So, you can have things in remote locations now able to easily tap into, you know, with much lower latency, tapping into the Amazon cloud. So, this is very sort of exciting development.
This is, you know, has huge ramifications for maritime, for government enterprises, defense. So, I'm I'm looking at this this is very interesting. It is launching this year, so I'm curious, you know, how much of a driver this will be for Amazon's AWS business. So, this is something to think about. At the same time, you are seeing real challenges that could impact the retail segment.
We have seen tariffs impact the retail business, and higher, you know, exponentially higher oil and gas prices could impact it as well. That said, this is part of the reason why stocks are getting this nice release, you know, relief rally today as, you know, the prospect of Middle East peace resumes.
Now, I think what gives people some pause here looking at Amazon is they're saying, "Well, wait a second. I am having to trust that you're doing a smart thing with this $200 billion investment, which is this step change from just 50 billion just a couple of years ago." And I don't think it gives investors a lot of comfort when they see them potentially doing, you know, reaching deals where they announce, "Hey, we're going to partner with OpenAI and invest roughly 50 billion dollars into OpenAI." That deal valuation is supposedly around 40 times sales and it also does raise the question of some sort of circular financing, which is, "Okay, we're going to take our funds.
We're going to, you know, buy shares in OpenAI. OpenAI is then going to reinvest them, you know, effectively buying our services. So, is that what sort of propping up AWS's growth?" I actually think, you know, the the true demand from AI is going to show up there. But, I I think investors are saying, "Well, wait a second.
You know, when you when you're paying something like 40 times sales, there is that risk of of getting into trouble." And so, that is that is the the concern is, "Will you're going Are Are they going to get uh an attractive return on investment for that 200 billion?" That's That's the uncertainty. But, as I look at Amazon, think about a hypothetical valuation framework for the company.
It's currently around 2.3 trillion-dollar market cap. The bulk of the value, as I already mentioned, really is going to come from AWS potentially in the years ahead. And so, you could see how I'm sort of penciling that out and assuming around 15% growth going forward, they keep the around 35% margins, and that segment alone could be effectively their entire market cap.
And so, then everything else is sort of additional to it. So, I I look at Amazon, I would say, yeah, it's reasonably valued. I wouldn't necessarily jump into, you know, the Bill Ackman camp to say, "Oh, yeah, this is, you know, extremely cheap." You know, that might be Bill Ackman sort of painting, you know, the picture right before the the end of the first quarter hoping to get slightly higher marks.
I mean, look, smart investors can disagree. You have Berkshire Hathaway and they were selling out of their Amazon at the end of the fourth quarter. You know, I I look at this and I I think overall Amazon is arguably on the the cheap to fair side, but not, you know, the deeply cheap, not, you know, deep value or anything like that.
Overall, I I hope this video walking through Bill Ackman calling out, you know, look, things are cheap, how you should, you know, consider, okay, net never just listen to one investor like Bill Ackman say, "Hey, things are cheap, therefore I have to buy it." You have to figure out whether or not it's right for your own journey, whether or not, you know, your risk tolerance is appropriate for these, you know, types of companies, whether or not you can handle that sort of volatility.
For some people it's not even appropriate. So, all these factors should be considered, you know, when when you're thinking about this. As always, none of this is financial advice, just sharing a little bit about my additional thoughts. Overall, hope this video was helpful for you. If so, please make a point of hitting that thumbs up, hit that subscribe button. Thanks so much for watching, Unrivaled Investing.
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