저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 팔란티어에 약 10억 달러 규모 풋옵션 숏 포지션과 엔비디아 약 2억 달러 규모 숏을 보유한 것으로 보고됨. 팔란티어는 매출 성장률 60%, 미국 상업 부문 120% 성장, 영업이익률 약 33%, 분기 잉여현금흐름 약 5억 달러, 현금 60억 달러·무부채. 그러나 매출 대비 약 140배 밸류에이션이 고평가로 지적되며, Flash 모델 기준 향후 5년 약세 시나리오에서 80% 하락 가능성 제시. 진행자는 밸류에이션 수축 가능성을 언급하나 투자 조언 아님을 명시.
다듬은 글
Dr. Michael Burry has a new big short position against Palantir via put contracts representing around 5 million shares or around a billion dollar notional value. He also has a sizable Nvidia bet similarly, you know, around a million shares around $200 million notional value. He also has bought a few things like Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, and Halliburton, so maybe making a call on an energy rebound, but I'm going to focus on this video on the big short because the same time that this came out and this is holdings as of the third quarter of 2025, so September 30th.
Palantir just reported their third quarter results and it's amusing to see Alex Karp talk here. You know, he's talking about the ascent has confounded confounded most financial analysts and the chattering class whose frames of reference did not quite anticipate a company of this size and scale growing at such a ferocious and unrelenting rate.
Some of our detractors have been left in a kind of deranged and self-destructive befuddlement. It has indeed been difficult for outsiders to appraise our business either in its significance in shaping our current geopolitics or its value in the vulgar financial sense. I got to say for a guy talking a lot of smack, he can do it because he's delivering with his financial results.
You can see this business has accelerated dramatically and Wall Street loves a good acceleration story going from few years ago closer to teens, you know, growth rate to now 60%. This is just a tremendous re-acceleration in this business. What's driving 60% revenue growth versus, you know, roughly teens a few years ago?
A huge part of it is US commercial business growing 120% and US government also seeing an uptick as the US government saying, "Look, there's a lot of, you know, demand. There's a lot of need to improve our services." And so you've seen this 52% uptick in US government. There is a little bit of a chart crime here because the US government business is up 50% to around 500 million and the US commercial business is up 121 to 400 million.
Yet the 400 million looks like it's bigger than the five. Whatever, it's The point is they're growing super fast. Looking at their US commercial business, what's driving? I mean, look at this contract value up 300% year over year. They're getting tons of new deals, new contracts. They talked about $204 million dollar deals, 53 that are $10 million plus.
So there are loads and loads of enterprises going to them, one of which BP is talking about, so the major oil company, saying, "Look, we can talk very confidently that we are getting year-on-year triple figure returns from the investments made with Palantir and there are other companies like Palan- like American Airlines and HSS that are also talking about the dramatic leverage they they've gotten from Palantir's AIP, so the artificial intelligence platform leveraging Palantir.
So this is an example of leveraging AI to make operations smoother, get best best in class operations. But it's also the government that's already called out. One example is where they talked about the ISV Titan where it took about 90 days to design and deliver it, which is just incredible light speed building and creating that sort of lines.
So that way if the government says, "Hey, we need this new type of vehicle, how do we get it? What's the process for making this possible?" Never before have you had this type of scale and ability to deliver so quickly. And frankly, I do believe in the AI revolution and I think you can also see it in the results because not only are they posting accelerating revenue growth, you're also seeing incredible profit margin expansion.
They're delivering real profitability, operating margins around 33%. This is best in class type of results. Looking at their free cash flow, free cash flow also fantastic. Talking about around 40% plus free cash flow margin around $500 million in the quarter. The question is, what's $2 billion in annualized free cash flow worth?
Because 500 million in the quarter, annualize that, you know, so that means around $2 billion a year and keep in mind sales is growing 60% and they have $6 billion in cash on the balance sheet, no debt. So I I do like a lot of these data points. You know, these are very favorable developments and yet here it is, Michael Burry, a very shrewd trader, he's got this new big short position worth around a billion dollars notional value.
You know, you you see this stock last few years, it's up around 2400%. Does it make sense to have that big short? First of all, none of this is financial advice. I'm just sharing a little bit about my own investment journey. Also a quick plug, Kieran D previously wrote, "Gave this service a try and was very impressed but investing five years now and haven't found anything comparable to what you're providing." This follows Joe R who wrote, "I've made almost a million dollars following along with your investing journey." He's talking about Unrivaled Investing, so come check it out now if you're interested.
And so looking at Palantir, looking at Flash, this is our I'm a co-founder of Flash, see the link below in the description of this video, and it's using leveraging AI to look at any company in the world, it recognized that overall Palantir has an ex- excellent quality, you know, an excellent growth outlook, 10 out of 10.
Very few companies are getting 10 out of 10 growth outlook. Their profitability is improving significantly, you know, this is financial health 10 out of 10. When you have billions of cash, no debt, you know, overall very strong quality. A plus, I would say, but the estimated framework on how it can perform in the years ahead isn't so great.
And when you look at the hypothetical, once again, you can pull this on any stock in the world if you're interested at Flash, it's saying, "Yeah, Palantir not so hot." In a low case, maybe it loses 80% over the next five years. Maybe in the high case, you roughly break even. And so this is my question to you.
How should you think about it? Because when you look at this valuation, it now trades at a richer valuation than it did in the prior peak just a few years ago in terms of multiples. So you could say, "Hey, a lot of this is justified based on the fact that their revenue is growing so fast." But at the same time, this is a very rich valuation, 140 times price to sales.
There are few companies that trade I This might be one of the most expensive companies in the world. Then you have folks like Jim Cramer where he's saying, "Look, I you know, this this was from earlier, I think at the end of last month. He was saying, "Now it's in striking distance of his $200 price target that he was thinking about.
Maybe I should raise it to 250." That's what he was talking about. Now, you'll notice, you know, reading and listening to what he has to say, none of it actually, you know, walks through logic on why he would just bump up a price target by 25% other than the fact that he just likes riding the momentum.
It's not fundamentally based. He's not running a no hype mission focused channel. He's, you know, he's going with the animal spirits. And so and hence the reason why, you know, some people like to make jokes about the inverse, you know, Cramer index. And so, you know, as I think about looking at Palantir, how should how should we think about?
Let's imagine that their free cash flow compounds at 40% for the next five years. That is an exceptional growth rate. And let's assume that effectively goes from $2 billion to $10 billion over the next five years. So once again, fantastic growth. So versus the market cap of around $500 billion today, you're saying it's 50 times free cash flow five years from now.
And is that an expensive multiple? I would argue any bull, anyone buying right now is saying it needs to grow faster than this 40% in order to drive upside. And I think that's the reason why Michael Burry's betting against it is that it's so tough and there's a good chance the valuation contracts. Looking at Michael Burry's quote though, I I think it is relevant to think about it.
He says, "Sometimes we see bubbles, sometimes there's something to do about it. Sometimes the only winning move is not to play." And personally, I think that's my my take with this which is that it's it the valuation is just so rich, it's too tough for me personally. Wouldn't surprise me at all if it keeps doing well, but I I look at something that's 140 times sales and, you know, it's interesting to see Michael Burry making the short.
Maybe he should take his own advice advice in saying, you know, the only winning move is not to play, especially when they're posting such amazing results. But I also at the same time wouldn't be surprised if it follows the trajectory that Flash laid out where the stock is down, you know, 40 to 80% in the next few years just from valuation contraction. Hope this video has been helpful. .
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