저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee은 비트코인이 단기적으로는 상승이 어렵다고 보며, 기술적 전략가 Mark Newton의 약세 판단(3월 말 62,000달러 목표)에 대해 62,000달러도 장기 관점에선 여전히 큰 수익이라 평가한다. 비트코인은 장기적으로 신뢰와 가치저장 수단으로서 성장할 것이라 보고, 나스닥100과 높은 상관관계를 가진 위험자산으로 본다. 미국 경기침체 가능성은 낮다고 봤지만 고용시장은 올해 혼란스러울 수 있다고 경고한다. 블랙록의 유럽 비트코인 ETP 출시도 언급된다.
다듬은 글
give us your 411 on Bitcoin right now. The best strategy for our clients that we've recommend is you just want to be a long-term holder, you know, but most people don't approach crypto that way. Most are trading it and want instant return. The work by our technical strategist Mark Newton, you know, so he thinks Salana, Ethereum, and Bitcoin all have downside.
Uh he has been bearish since mid January. So I think it's been correct and it's his downside target for Bitcoin is 62,000 by the end of March. But to me, is 62,000 a reason to turn bearish on Bitcoin? I mean, if you're trading it, yeah, but you know, Bitcoin was $1,000 that, you know, well, $100 10 years ago.
So, you know, 60,000 is still a fantastic return. And I think Bitcoin's usefulness is still improving. I don't think it moves. It's still a risk on assets. So, I don't expect it to do well if the market is being hit by tariffs. like it's not immune to that kind of turbulence, but is the trust around Bitcoin going to grow over the next 5 years?
Yes. And is it going to be increasingly viewed as uh a a store of value like gold? Yes, I think increasingly. And then is there room for a lot more people to own it? Yes. So I I don't I don't I'm not really bearish on it, but I think in the near term it's hard to say it should go up right now. Yeah.
You do a lot of correlation work and this is purely anecdotal on my part. It seems very correlated to the NASDAQ 100 right now. Is that fair to say? Yeah, it makes sense. It's a risk on asset. Yeah. Bitcoin Zea shares his crypto outlook, explores why theirs sound smart but are usually wrong, and reveals bullish predictions.
Watch now to uncover insights, and fuel your next strategy. Most people want to disagree with what they're hearing. So if they see this uh markets are up and people are happy, they don't want to hear from someone saying the market's going up for the right reasons. They'd rather hear's why everybody else is going to be wrong.
And I think a second thing that I've heard said many times and it's generally true, bearish people sound smarter. But it because you know the bullish arguments are like time, you know, faith in uh you know, capitalism or whatever. nebulous things but that have historically worked but it's more than just nebulous things that have historically worked.
I mean there's a method there's a process to your work that is not just you know put your finger and you lick your finger put it in the air and say the market's going higher. So I understand what you're saying. Okay let's get into process then because there's a process behind this too. And I would submit that if something changed in terms of the backdrop, in terms of outlooks, in terms of the the environment that we find ourselves in, you would change as well.
Yes, that's right. I mean, if we were having a recession, that wouldn't be a bullish case, you know, or if uh there was an exogenous shock that was going to cause uh markets to repric, you can't be bullish on that unless it's at the extreme, right? Mhm. So like you know in other words if people have turned something into a crisis that's just should just be a scare that's when opportunity emerges.
Black Rockck the world's largest asset manager has introduced its first Bitcoin exchange traded product in Europe responding to growing investor demand for exposure to cryptocurrency in key global markets. The isser's Bitcoin ETP is doiciled in Switzerland and listed on major European exchanges including Paris, Amsterdam and Frankfurt.
This move follows Black Rockck's success in the United States, where it garnered more than $50 billion in similar products after receiving approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission in January 2024. Coinbase has been selected as custodian with Bank of New York Melon serving as administrator, underlining Black Rockck's commitment to robust institutional partnerships.
These collaborations aim to offer greater security and transparency, making digital assets more appealing to traditional investors. By expanding its Bitcoin focused products beyond the US, Black Rockck could further legitimize cryptocurrency within the mainstream investment community. Over time, this development may inspire broader acceptance of digital assets, reshaping the landscape of global finance.
What What separated you from the pack in that situation? because I know we've talked about this, but I think it's interesting to reflect back now because a lot of folks thought that we might have a similar sort of year this year and you know we're two months in it just seems a bit rockier. So curious like how you're thinking about that now that the Rword's coming back into the uh you know into the mainstream a little bit.
One of the reasons we weren't that cautious or expecting a recession is that a recession is is often two conditions, not just one. Most people thought, hey, the Fed tightens and Feds are responsible for all recessions because, you know, they say expansions are murdered by the Fed. But really, that happens when the economy has exhausted incremental return on capital.
And if we go back to the 2021 2022 period, private investment spending as a percentage of GDP was still near recession levels. So capital spending wasn't exhaustive and consumers debt service ratios were still at recession lows. So it was hard for us to argue that the Fed and its tightening even though it inverted the curve would be enough of a contractionary pulse to actually push us to into a recession.
Is there a concern or is it something that people people like me talk about and are concerned but are concerned for the wrong reasons? the employment picture which seemingly is fantastic with a 4% unemployment rate. There's some things under the surface to suggest maybe things are turning employment.
How's your outlook there? I think the employment picture is going to get pretty messy this year. Um but for obvious reasons, you know, there is uh availability workers might be diminishing because of deportations or fears of people getting deported. So there may be fewer people showing up for work. and then Doge um and the the changes in how NOS's are being funded, you know, and the austerity from that uh is going to show up because many of these federal employees are still getting unemployment benefits.
So, they're not filing claims yet. But I think you're already seeing it in like Washington DC. Jobless claims are picking up and Zillow real estate listings are picking up. So, I think that there is a a spillover already happening. So, it's, you know, it's possible that this year in the first half, the job market could be missing consensus by 50% for a while and it'll get people scared.
XRP has shown signs of recovery, climbing around 7% in the past 10 days as broader crypto sentiment improved, and Ripple's legal challenges with the US Securities and Exchange Commission reached a conclusion. Its current value of $244 still sits roughly 30% below the multi-year peak of $3.40, raising questions about whether the market has enough momentum to push prices back above significant resistance levels.
Recent data suggests XRP's futures market remains subdued with open interest below $4 billion, well off the highs recorded in January. Funding rates have lingered near negative territory, indicating a mildly bearish mood among traders. Meanwhile, whale activity has been unusually quiet as wallets holding between 1 and 10 million tokens have neither significantly added nor reduced their positions.
This lull in whalriven volatility may be creating a wait and see environment, limiting dramatic price swings. Much depends on XRP's ability to hold above the psychological support near $2.40. Failing to maintain that level could invite renewed selling pressure, especially if major buyers remain on the sidelines.
If XRP does drop below $2.40, traders will likely look toward the $2 and 22 to $1.90 range for potential support and possible short-term rebounds. Without a surge in trading volume or a pickup in large-scale purchasing by Wales, XRP's price movements may remain constrained. Observers await signs of renewed buying interest, whether fueled by positive macro shifts or improvements in onchain metrics, to determine if XRP can break free from its current consolidation phase. Soon, some traders foresee a bullish rebound. .
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