저자: RickRule · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 '금은 필요 없다' 발언을 반박하며 금은 모든 포트폴리오에 필요한 자산이라고 주장함. 버핏 발언 반박: 버핏처럼 연 15% 복리를 내는 투자자라면 금이 필요 없겠지만, 일반인은 자신의 나쁜 투자 본능을 막아주는 강제 저축과 정부 재정 남용으로부터의 보호 수단으로 금이 필요하다고 봄. 금은 이자 수익이 없다는 버핏 지적에 대해서도 금의 안정성과 상승 시 효과를 강조함. 달러·채권 관점: 금은 미국 달러 신뢰(특히 미국 10년물 국채)와 역의 상관관계를 보여 왔음. 10년물 국채가 35년간의 강세장을 거쳤고 그 끝이 가까워졌다고 판단하며, 이는 금의 새로운 강세장 신호라고 봄. 미국의 부채(온/오프밸런스 약 22조 달러 및 약 120조 달러 규모 사회보장·의료 등 부외부채) 상환 문제를 근거로 듦. 광산주: 광산주는 올해 실물 금보다 강하지만 기업 수가 너무 많아 합병이 계속되어야 하며, 합병으로 일반관리비를 크게 줄여야 한다고 주장. 뉴몬트-배릭 합병은 연 3.5억 달러 비용 절감 효과로 주주에게 이롭다고 평가하며 업계 전체에도 긍정적이라고 봄. 단기 금 시장에는 관심이 없다고 밝힘. 리스크: 버핏 같은 장기 투자자가 아닌 일반 투자자에게 주가 50% 하락은 견디기 어려운 수준이라는 점을 언급.
다듬은 글
another year another PDAC it is day one and my first guest from the silence here of the world's largest mining show Rick rule welcome back always a pleasure to be here with you thank you too long it's really your official return to the to the mining stage we missed you Rick excited to talk to you today because Warren Buffett making headlines earlier this week with his thoughts on gold now we know Buffett has never been a huge fan of the yellow metal but he had some some some harsh words saying the magical metal gold was never a match for American metal so he does not see it as a safe haven what did you think when you when you saw this race three comments first of all I'm a huge huge huge Buffett fan I've been a Berkshire Hathaway shareholders for a very long time so the remarks that follow are not intended to disparage Buffett but rather in fact to talk to his well necessary disclaimer because these are he's a great guy were I warned Buffett where I as smart as Warren Buffett where I as disciplined and investor and as good an analyst I probably wouldn't need gold either part of what gold does is it protects you from your own worst instincts it's an enforced form of savings and it protects you from the depredations of government if you are someone like Buffett who can manage money for 15% compound internal rates of return over 50 years you don't own gold sadly for the world there's only one Buffett for the rest of us who are mortal the insurance offered up by gold is critical the second thing that Buffett said is that gold offers no yield if you are Warren Buffett and you manage four hundred billion dollars and you get gauged quarterly although he always disclaims this quarterly focus I can understand his point of view sadly I don't manage four hundred billion dollars I manage a somewhat smaller amount of money and the stability of gold at the same I'm as the demonstrated upside when there is a tailwind in gold makes it an absolutely critical asset class for immortal Buffett doesn't conform to the moniker mortal he's immortal so he doesn't need gold but all of the rest of us do so do you feel he's doing a disservice to investors who follow him religiously by putting that out there I don't I also think that when gold returns to favor irrespective of what Buffett says that investors will pick and choose based on their own paradigm the truth is that most investors don't want education they want affirmation so if people don't want to confuse themselves with gold they take the fact that Buffett said that gold is unnecessary as an excuse not to do the work to manage their own portfolio when gold returns to favor and they want to invest in gold they're gonna say well Buffett snidey what do I care what he says I think he's a sideshow relative to gold well he also he also kind of took a you know a bit of a jab at the fear-mongering crowd right saying well you know when they're saying that a recession is coming and you know everything is going out the window and we need safety you need to run to gold and like you said he was saying gold hasn't proven to succeed and shine in those situations Buffett's right if you are Buffett Buffett has pointed out and I've experienced this that four or five times in his stewardship the price of Berkshire Hathaway has fallen by 50 percent an 18 month time frame if you look at those declines over 40 years you don't even see them on the graph but if you're a mortal if you're Daniela or if you're or if you are one of the people who watch kit Co while you can survive a 50% decline it's decidedly unpleasant from my own point of view gold is an absolutely necessary component in most portfolios Buffett is right that the ascent of man is an unbroken bull market that's gone on for 6,000 years so if you look at it in a decade-long perspective he's right but if you look at it as immortal he's wrong let's get Rick rules feeling on gold right now you never mince words every time I ask you is the gold returned we've seen a very good rally albeit Friday aside do you like what you're seeing in the gold market I don't care about the gold market in the very near term I believe first of all that every portfolio has to have some gold in it all the time up or down but I also believe and we've talked about this before Daniela gold moves for many reasons but the most important determinant and gold for the last 40 years has been faith in the purchasing power of the US dollar particularly as expressed by the US 10-year Treasury the US 10-year Treasury has been in a 35-year bull market from that point of view I think that that bull market is either over or close to the end if you believe that gold trades contra to faith in the US dollar that suggests on its own that gold is ready for its own bull market if the bull market that trades contra two is over it suggests that that market will do well why would that be that one's simple twenty two trillion dollars in on balance sheet liabilities your your listeners will be their eyes will glaze over because a trillion is too big a number to comprehend a hundred and twenty trillion dollars and off-balance sheet liabilities people say what's an off-balance sheet liability look I'm 66 I'm an off-balance sheet liability Social Security Medicare all the promises that my generation made to ourselves you have to pay that's why I'm bullish about gold there's two ways out of this you can default honestly that is your generation telling my generation you made the promises you pay them we're not gonna or you can default dishonestly by inflating away the net present value the obligation good for gold shifting gears now to mining stocks the miners outperforming physical bullion this year the opposite of last year do you like what you're seeing in the mining space miners were oversold the bounce had to happen my outlook for the miners really is mixed there are too many of them this merger thing needs to keep going you need to we need as an industry much smaller general and administrative expense relative to assets under management I mean much smaller if this continues to happen the gold sector the gold equity sector will really surprise to the upside what will we do with all the extra PDAC booth space that's the PDS ease problem no but in all seriousness you can't mention the mergers but do we need mega-mergers yes of the size of possible new mom Baris yes yes yes I mean mark not the best thing for shareholders that it is not the best thing for redundant management it's absolutely the best thing for shareholders they believe that they can cut the combined GA by the way I'm not talking about the price I mean a take under the silly frankly it's silly but the rationale for the merger is that you can reduce general administrative expense by three hundred and fifty million dollars a year a million dollars a day now that would be one of the best minds in their portfolio in other words saving three hundred and fifty million dollars a year is the same as generating three hundred and fifty million dollars a year at ten times evid it's three and a half billion dollars in additional market capitalization but what makes it better than a mine is that it doesn't deplete its three hundred it's a million dollars a day if you manage it well for the rest of time it has to happen and it's great for the industry to Danijela people haven't thought about this but if you take these big companies and you have them sell the assets that are no longer big enough to manage to work for them they can take a second or third-tier mining company and double the size of it the people who get made redundant can be used I remember when Placer Dome went away I was able to hire Neel add Chet and Andy Jackson there was intellectual capital that was redundant for Barrack that was greatly beneficial to sprite I think this is wonderful is the shareholder question because Newmont stock has outperformed Berek stock and when I was interviewing peerless on you said it's obvious who has created more shareholder value I don't care personally who ends up running it what I care about is that they use the Denver office as an excuse to cut the Toronto office in half and they use the Toronto office as excuse to cut the Denver office in half and that they share they they save shareholders three hundred fifty million dollars a year that's what I care about right fair enough Rick rule always a pleasure having you on thank you for your comments I pleasant happy PDAC and to you and we're just it's just the start we're gonna have so much more content for you so be sure to stay tuned to koco.com
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