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with a fellow investors welcome to the stock market news with a long term fundamental twist my name is van Carlene I have been successfully investing for almost 20 years now yes I'm that old and I have been a finance and accounting professor at the University of Amsterdam I have a PhD on investing risk and now I'm an independent researcher doing research on businesses and sharing my thoughts on YouTube two years ago one and a half year ago I gave my thoughts I shared my thoughts on canopy growth and the cannabis sector because it was really required for me to do that and my conclusion wasn't positive so I'm going to give you an overview of what I did what was the consequence of it and how it developed now that cannabis stocks are crashing then we'll also discuss the Bitcoin as Ray Dalio discussed how there is a currency imminent collapse is Bitcoin the answer to it I'll give you a bullish thesis on Bitcoin and then you will see how that fits your investing strategy risk and reward and why I'm not going to invest in Bitcoin I might look like a fool for the next 5-10 years but it's simply not my strategy however there is a very strong bullish case behind it so let's start so I invest canopy growth in aurora cannabis in April of 2018 I was even contacted by investor relations because of my conclusions to have a chat with them but then it's diluted I didn't manage to catch them and they were going public on the New York Stock Exchange and simply the chat didn't go through and I also didn't have any interest in discussing it with them but I looked like a fool for exactly a year and a half I discussed canopy growth at $40 per share it went to 60 60 and something so everybody that came on my channel so oh look at this idiot he said canopy grow is a tomato business when it was at 40 and now it is at 60 and it lasted for a year and a half and now the stock is at 20 what did I say in my video well to sum up I said we have a commodity market with much lower prices management that's trying to make money in any way for themselves not for shareholders no moat same like tomatoes or broccoli huge delusion in all forms a perfect example of misaligned interest with shareholders they were diluting the hell out of all other shareholders unreasonable growth projections that might or might not happen so I'd said that it's like tomato producing and everybody attacked me everybody said okay's when you are crazy then I looked for like a fool for a year and a half but what is the conclusion when you have an unsustainable business model business model that selling dreams and there is plenty of money then of course the management made a lot of money by selling those dreams diluting shareholders getting share options selling stocks and that's how the business works somebody gets rich unfortunately those that invest hoping that they own a great business or hoping that they will make quickly some more money based on greed or based a fear of missing out on the biggest new era of the biggest new business model on the biggest new market that's coming they unfortunately lose their money very very fastly it's simply greed and if a risk doesn't materialize it doesn't mean it isn't there if we look at the sp500 it's also very risky the greed index is extremely greedy everybody rushes into index funds and just a year ago it was extreme fear because people were scared that the sp500 will crash because it was down what fifteen to twenty percent however going back to fear and greed I think I find it very difficult to understand why people put their money or why people like to bet on those Gamble's because yes it is exciting but then again former Huber's CEO sold more than seven hundred million in stocks on his great idea and investment he made his 700 million that's enough for a lifetime and he was protected you investing in uber or similar stocks you might not have the same fate another stock that I got so many messages so Sven please analyze it analyze it analyze it and I didn't analyze it because I didn't want to bother with it because I knew what the story was was beyond meat it went public explosion upwards and then it's just simply slowly coming back to where it was so the thing is that people are investing in things that sell dreams and don't have earnings and that's called the greater fool investing theory because you need to find a greater fool to whom you're going to sell that stock to make money not from earning similar story was the dot-com bubble in the 2000s that Nasdaq index went almost 5000 points it took 1314 years to reach that level again and yes they were all right the internet was Co has changed the world but few made money from 2000 five years ago there was the frida system bubbles everything was will be printed by 3d printers right then we had we will use drones cameras everybody will have a drone everything will be transported by drones GoPro and cameras and blah blah blah well another bubble that blew up now investing in something that everybody will be using is always a hot story is always a hot story easy to sell the next hot story that was a hot story two years ago it's now hotter it was cool a year ago is Bitcoin so I've made a video on dahlias view on an imminent currency debasement over the next 10 years and I got a lot of messages asking me okay whether the Bitcoin is the answer as an asset class to protect yourself from what's going to happen to currencies from what's going to happen to economies and well the economics the fundamentals of the Bitcoin are there very interesting so let me first share the bullish thesis for Bitcoin and then I'll tell you why I will or will not put my money into this so the supply of Bitcoin is currently 18 million the 160 billion market cap at the current price it will go up to 21 million over the next year so slow slow inflation with a hard cap so this occurs in form of supply shocks in the mining block reward and it is exponentially decreasing manner as such so we can say that the Bitcoin has a limited supply so inflation rate will be zero and it also has a cost of production like other metals have and a week ago it was seven hundred seven thousand four hundred ninety per Bitcoin in electricity costs to mine a single Bitcoin so it's decentralized no government or third party owns the network it's also fungible and divisible in eight decimal points censorship so in Argentina it trades at a premium because people are putting their money into bitcoins to protect themselves from what's going on there in Argentina it's more and more difficult to mine as we have said so it gets provable scarce it is something limited something decentralized so it's a very very good story but why am I not going to put my money in it because I think I can do better than the Bitcoin over the long term by investing in businesses that compound over the long term that produce something however if I put it in a ray dolly on all-weather portfolio where you simply invest in all asset classes this could be part of it you say okay I'm investing in Bitcoin 5% of my portfolio when it becomes 7 I bring it down to 5 when it becomes free I bring it up to 5% and in such a way you might get the yield you might trade it you might do something but then again all weather is not about maximizing portfolio returns it's just about stabilizing portfolio returns I am focused on maximizing portfolio returns but by investing in things that have unlimited the upside if Bitcoin stabilizes and gives you just protection against inflation then you know the upside is limited so these are my thoughts you see how what fits you I'm not saying this could cannot go to 60 it absolutely can go to 60 thousand I might look again like a fool for not investing in Bitcoin for the next two five ten years I probably will we'll see depending on the supply and demand and what people believe but I don't like to invest in what people believe I like to invest in what people need and I'm note a will need it and that's the risk reward I'm not going to accept so what will happen I have absolutely no idea with Bitcoin and it could be the fundamentals are there depends on what are people going to believe and where they are going to put their money not a sufficient reason to invest for me thank you for watching look forward to your comments look at what I do in the description of the video below you have all the links for my stock market research platform where we look for businesses that are going to deliver returns forever and infinite returns hopefully thank you and I'll see you in the next video
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