저자: SvenCarlin,Ph.D. · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 전통적 밸류 지표(PBR·PER 등)는 과거 데이터라 죽었다고 볼 수 있으나, 현금흐름 기반의 워런 버핏식 본질가치 투자는 영원히 유효하다. 전통적 밸류 지표 비판: 저PER·저PBR 등은 백미러를 보는 것이며, 어떤 지표가 이길지는 예측할 수 없다. 러셀 3000 가치주는 최근 10년 약 150% 상승, 성장주는 약 350% 상승해 가치주가 크게 부진했다고 주장. 버핏식 가치투자 핵심: 미래 현금흐름을 할인한 본질가치를 추정하고 그보다 싸게 사는 것. 완벽히 맞히기보다 대략 맞히는 게 낫다. 정보 우위는 사라졌고 속도·규모 우위도 개인에게는 없으므로, 남은 우위는 장기적 사고방식이다. 시장은 3~5년 뒤 현금흐름을 보지 않는다. 리스크 관리: 제1원칙은 돈을 잃지 않는 것, 안전마진을 확보해 하방은 제한하고 상방은 열어둔다. 역사 데이터: 1926년 이후 90년 중 가치(PBR) 전략이 성장을 84번 이겼다. 다만 1990년대 닷컴 버블, 최근처럼 성장주가 강세인 시기에는 가치가 부진했다. 평균회귀: 미국 가치주가 성장주 대비 5배 저렴할 때 역사적으로 이후 10년 수익률이 좋았다. 다만 이번에도 평균회귀가 올지는 모른다고 인정. Kenneth French 데이터: 시장 연 8%, 성장 5.7%, 가치 10.3%. 10년간 10만 달러 투자 시 약 17.4만 달러 대비 약 22.3만 달러. 개인 투자자는 최근 트렌드를 쫓아 실패하므로 장기 관점과 현금흐름 중심 투자 원칙을 지켜야 한다고 강조. 영상 말미에 자사 리서치 플랫폼 홍보. 개별 종목 예측 발언은 없음(일반 투자 철학 중심).
다듬은 글
good day fellow investors over the past years the message has been clear value investing is dead I agree especially when they define it as it is usually defined low price-earning slows price-to-book low price - cash flows however there is a different definition of value investing that has worked since ever and will work forever and that is the definition I'm going to give you to really put value investing what is we can call it modern value investing that will work forever no matter that old value investing might be dead let me give you an explanation of value investing old value investing new value investing what are the key factors to focus if you want to win when investing thus really use the truth everlasting value investing the general environment underperforming over-performing that always talked in the media and then at the end of the video you will know exactly what to focus on how to focus how to invest where to invest that will bring you to extremely good investing returns over your lifetime you're not investing for the next 2-3 years or in this hot stock in this hot trend now that's not going to bring you two returns you have to find things that will work forever and this is what you're going to get in this video so please subscribe to this channel we are all about things that will work forever that will deliver returns with low risk forever subscribe like and let's start with content so it's value investing debt well value investing has been usually Devine defined as low price to book value low price earnings ratios and low price to cashflow ratios when you defined things like that when you define things and when you look at investments by looking into a rearview mirror because all that data price earnings price to cash flow looks in the rearview mirror then it's certainly dead because investing is about what's going to happen neck not what happened in the past so if we look at many value investing definitions from free cash flow to enterprise value book value to price earnings yield sales to price forward earnings to price we can see big variations in related returns over 15 years book value to price over the last 15 years delivered 16 percent free cash flow to enterprise value deliver 200 20 percent so does this mean free cash flow to enterprise value works and book value to price doesn't work no it's simply that sometimes something works sometimes something else this is just statistics statistics looking in the rearview mirror does not relevant for long term investors then no one measure of value has consistently performed better than others some there have been price to book value has done good price to earnings other times price to cash flows has done better over the last year's price to book value did really really bad a little bit better price to earnings so you never know what's going to work well in general value stocks again defined as usual defined as Benjamin Graham discussed in his book have performed terribly over the last 10 years if we look at the Russell 3000 value versus the Russell 3000 growth index value stocks are up 150% while growth stocks are up what 350 percent so a huge difference and that's why people are saying OK value stocks are dead if we look at the Vanguard growth vs.
value index funds we can see that in the 2000s value was over performing but since the 2008 crisis value is really really underperforming albeit a little bit better than in the Russell so again questionable is how they measure it then what is value investing and is it dead as I said yes value investing if you take a fixed measure based on the past will always be dead because you never know what will work better what will work worse over the next five to 10 years it's all about sentiments statistics what you need is something that you can rely all the time on and that's something there are three core things when it comes to value investing the first thing is cashflow intrinsic value Warren Buffett defines value investing by looking at the intrinsic value of a business and then trying to buy it below that intrinsic value how does he define intrinsic value well intrinsic value is what is the number that if you were all knowing about the future and could predict all the cash that a bit my business would give you between now and Judgment Day discounted at the proper discount rate that number is what the intrinsic value of businesses thanks foreign so intrinsic value is defined as the discounted value of all the cash flows that the business is going to deliver from today to Judgment Day and that's something that none of those metrics that we discussed as defining value investing give you you have to understand the business trying to estimate what's going to happen in the sector in the economy competition what's the mode what's everything and then you can wrongly guess what's going to be the future cash flow that's going to deliver be delivered to you wrongly yes is but it's better to be vaguely right then precisely wrong and then you're looking at margins of safety looking at okay it can be a hundred it can be five hundred ten five years from now but that is value investing trying to estimate future cash flows with a correct predictability probability and then comparing to the risks and seeing okay where is the price now compared to what it can be in the future that's value investing according to Warren Buffett Warren Buffett changed his value investing techniques since starting since studying under Benjamin Graham because Benjamin Graham was a statistical value investor he simply looked at bay is trading at below cash value both them bought a bunch of them and knew that those will deliver value over time as their value unlocks however a lot has changed since then first when Buffett started investing he would take the sp500 manual stock market guide and he would read all the 1,000 pages and he would find those undervalued uncovered stocks that were really delivering great returns for him but he had an informational advantage that's something you cannot have now because all the information is out there you go to your Bloomberg terminal boom boom boom and you get all the information that's you cannot have an informational advantage the second event that you can have an in investing is speed or scale you call Warren Buffett he can get an advantage he can lend money to an ad to buy Anadarko at 10 billion here he can buy preferred shares of Kraft Heinz or Goldman Sachs Bank of America you can't do that plus there are flash traders from Michael Lewis's book that have the speed have the connectivity again advantage that you cannot have the only advantage you can have is having the right mindset and that's something that you have to focus on creating the right mindset that's something we focus on this channel so please subscribe and click that like button and what does it mean to have the right mindset the right minds and means to look long-term look at businesses look at things that the market isn't looking what is it out there that the market isn't looking the market isn't looking for long-term competitive advantages for undervalued long-term cash flows or for cash flows that are going to come not in the next 3-5 quarters but that are going to come in the next 3-5 years that's something the market isn't looking everybody is focused okay I need to beat my competitors in the next 12 months not 5 years and therefore that gives you an advantage thirdly the market isn't focused on another core Finken of value investing and that's risk value investing is focused on risk and you try to avoid the first of all an investment is don't lose and the second order investment is don't forget the first rule and that's all the rules there are I mean that if you buy things for far below what they're worth and you buy a group of them you basically don't lose money Thank You Warren you try to avoid losing money because the first rule in investing is don't lose money the second rule is don't forget rule number one and when you compare those cash flows and you look to for a margin of safety not to lose money then the downside remains limited and the upside is unlimited that is what is core everlasting value investing so do you see the difference between value investing defined from whoever wants to be a value investor or whoever calls value investing debt and value investing defined but in a Buffett way and that will work forever Buffett defined that defines value investing as cash flows and a margin of safety if I'm wrong what do I fall on to what gives me protection if I'm right what's the upside not past price to cash flow price to sales or something even if I think that even those past metrics might work very very well in the future let's see so when you're looking at value investing and you look at the price to book value over the 90 years that Kenneth French and Eugene fama have given us the data to calculate price to book value has outperformed growth investing in 84 of the 90 years if we this was up to 2016 measured so if we add the three years over the last few years that value investing didn't outperform so value investing outperformed growth investing in 84 of the last 94 years so 84 of 94 so one in nine years over the next ten years when you measure returns growth investing will do better so statistically I think that value investing will continue to do good just there are periods when value investing doesn't outperform like the 1990s like now when growth stocks were really really hot and then here is the chart showing the difference between growth stocks and value stocks you can see here this is the last ten years when looking at performance it has been flat underperforming growth stocks but over the last 70 80 90 years I think the message is clear about value investing especially because price to book value now it can be measured differently but gives you a sense of protection and we have seen only increasing rising markets over the last 10 years so value investing the margin or safety didn't matter that much because everything goes up rising tide lifts all boats so it isn't the first time that value stocks disappointed investors for a long time we have seen similar performance in the 1990s dot-com bubble and you all know what happened lately and then US value stocks have rarely been this cheap relative to growth so five times cheaper relative to valuations will there be a min reversal I don't know I don't care because I look at cash flows and I look at future cash flows and risk historically there was always a mean reversal so you see when value stocks were very cheap and underperformed the market the forward 10-year premium returns were very positive and vice versa when value was doing really good the next 10 year returns were very bad to conclude on this data overview from Kenneth French Library when you outperformed growth by an average of four point six percentage points per annum so the market average was eight percent growth was five point seven percent and value was ten point three percent the differences are staggering so if you just invest a hundred thousand over ten years five point seven percent one hundred seventy four thousand ten point three percent twenty two hundred sixty-six thousand those are staggering differences if you do the same over fifty years the difference is amazing and that's what it is all about that's what it is all about you're not investing over the next five ten years you're investing over the next twenty thirty forty indefinitely probably if you will leave your wealth to your children or you want to live off their wealth for as long as it goes so if you are promiscuous about your investing styles sooner or later your portfolio will get the disease but if you focus on cash flows and if you focus on managing risk that's all you need and that is real everlasting modern value investing Warren Buffett has been applying to conclude there are three things you have to remember cash flows from today to Judgment Day discounted at whatever rate you want to reach and then you can compare things managing risk don't lose money allow those cash flows to compound no matter what happens we cannot predict the future and the third key is of course subscribe to this channel for the correct mindset when it comes to investing I'm always amazed by JP Morgan's chart that shows that the markets did good Reed's did good everything did good but the average investor over the last twenty years did terribly because they don't have the right mindset they're always chasing the hot trend the hot stock what worked in the past they're always investing with the rear view mirror looking at all free cash flow to enterprise value looked good let's buy that let's do that and that's not the way to invest and therefore you get those terrible returns instead of getting the great returns so long term investing having the right mindset subscribe to the channel and if you want to see the stocks I'm researching that I'm investing in that have 50 years of production had competitive advantages that are the best in their sector and that will be rate no matter what happens with the economy long-term then please check my stock market research platform in the link below and you have all my website you have many articles mindset research stocks that I have there publishing so please check that out and I'll see you in the next video
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