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You know, we've been thinking and uh giving you evidence over the last 3 years that the US economy has been in a rolling recession. Manufacturing negative for 3 years, small businesses suffering, low and middle inome consumers suffering, even capital spending. I know the headlines are all about AI and power needs, but x those.
We've seen a flattening out, if not a decline, in many capital spending sectors. So, we now are looking at the early days of this Trump administration. Seems like a lot of drama and headlines primarily about tariffs, but underneath in terms of real policy moves included some massive changes. At ARK's latest update, Kathy Wood revealed what she calls an overlooked economic shift.
New depreciation rules now let US companies write off nearly everything, cutting the effective tax rate to about 10 12%. She says this could flip the US from a rolling recession to a rolling recovery. Lower taxes mean higher returns and more global capital flowing in. Wood believes this will boost productivity and fuel growth without sparking inflation, especially as deregulation in AI and crypto accelerates innovation.
remaining bullish what has been increasing her crypto and tech positions. She predicts explosive growth ahead and says the next phase of the crypto cycle could define the biggest market opportunities of 2025. Hey, I am Maria with Daily Dose Crypto. Have you noticed that gold, silver, and Bitcoin have hit all-time highs recently?
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OB3, so the one big beautiful bill. I think the most important ones involve depreciation and uh they are taking the effective corporate tax rate. The statutory tax rate is still 21% but incorporating uh depreciation schedules, the new ones for manufacturing facilities, equipment, domestic R&D and software.
The effective corporate tax rate has probably dropped into the 10 to 12% range which makes it really the lowest in the world for any major economy. So, we do believe that uh we're moving from a rolling recession into a rolling recovery. It's going to take a little time to to catch fire and we think that employment is a lagging indicator.
So, we're going to hear more bad news about employment for both cyclical reasons and because AI is limiting the job opportunities for especially new college graduates. But we do think that tax policy changes and critically deregulation everywhere. The edict from on high was deregulate, deregulate, deregulated and and we are seeing it all over the place, especially in healthcare and crypto and even AI.
The first executive order that President Trump rescended was Biden's AI executive order because we really do believe right now we're still in very early stages uh the equivalent of 1995 in terms of the internet. We're in early stages as it relates to AI. There were some ownorous regulations moving into policym uh into the policym arena.
Those will no longer happen. So uh we believe we're moving into a productivitydriven boom in activity. I think the plan was this to the extent President Trump and team could control it. get all the bad news out early in this term and as we move into the election campaign season for the midterms have the economy move into a very strong expansion.
Uh so that's what we expect and because it's productivity driven we believe that the surprises will be on the low side of inflation expectations. So this is very much like uh the economy that reeganomics unleashed in the 80s and 90s and we think that this could be a much more powerful version of that.
So we're very excited about the outlook for the economy innovation and the markets generally. I'm going to come back with one more just on the macro side here too. We're hearing a lot of talk about just US dollar weakening and gold and bitcoin and how that relates gold hitting new highs. Can you just give us your uh kind of quick take on that?
Yes, it's very interesting. I just took a trip around the world actually and I saw the negative sentiment about the US mostly because of the headlines tariffs. They've really colored the point of view of investors in the rest of the world. And you know, I heard dollar weakness a familiar refrain abroad.
first half of the year, weakest dollar since by some metrics 1973. And um I gave them the outlook that I just described here and actually took the opposite point of view. I think the dollar and and this happened during regonomics as well. I think the dollar is going to go up and that's because I believe given the policies that are being put in place that have been put in place uh that the returns on invested capital in the US are going to go up relative to the rest of the world and that foreign direct investment will increase substantially we think is going to be a surprise.
One of the reasons gold has been going up is this narrative. The dollar is debasing. And so that's a boon for for gold and for Bitcoin. Well, if the dollar becomes as good as gold, and this is an expression that Art Laugher, you've heard me talk about La Art and the Laugher curve. He's also a monetary expert.
And as we've been discussing this scenario with him, he brought this framing back, which is, well, if the dollar becomes as good as gold, then why hold gold? Kathy would calls it a modern-day version of reaggonomics, but bigger. She believes a new boom is forming, powered by AI, robotics, and blockchain, while others focus on tariffs and deficits.
Q4 2025, she says, could be the turning point few expects over 1.1 billion crypto wallets by the end of 2025, marking the fastest wealth growth in history. Her research points to one truth, liquidity drives markets, and crypto will be the top performing asset as prices move sharply higher. So, we shall see.
Gold did go down. It peaked in the early8s, actually 1980 at $800 and went down over the next two years to $300 with that kind of dollar strength. So, and actually the dollar strength did not end until 1985. uh the dollar actually doubled from its low to its peak in 1985 at which point the rest of the world was suffering.
Uh there was a huge amount of dollar denominated debt in countries whose currencies were depreciating rapidly. So debt service became ownorous if not impossible and we ended up with a worldwide easing effectively with the US providing more dollars into the global ecosystem. So I think we're going to be back to the future on that as well.
As far as Bitcoin, well, Bitcoin is sure it's digital gold, but as we've said many times, it is also a technology and it's the first of its kind in a new asset class. That paper, I believe, is still on our website. Uh maybe we can put it into this uh webinar, but first of its kind in a new asset class and institutions have just started tiptoeing into it.
Kathy Wood says a quiet economic shift is underway that could spark the next productivity boom with new tax incentives driving investments in AI, automation, and biotech. She believes Q4 2025 could mark the start of a powerful innovation cycle similar to the internet boom of the 1990s. She also sees crypto gaining massive momentum as institutional money flows in and new laws take shape.
What expects Bitcoin and DeFi to redefine global finance in the coming years. Do you agree with her outlook? And how do you think innovation and crypto will shape the economy in 2025? Share your thoughts below. .
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