저자: PeterSchiff/ErskineCharlesWilliam · 외국인
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결론: 금은 지금이 '1월 크리스마스 장식 세일'처럼 저가 매수 구간이며, 중국·미국 부채 위기로 금 가격이 폭등할 수 있다. 금 가격 관점: 현재 금 가격이 펀더멘털을 반영하지 못해 낮고, 연말 장식 세일처럼 지금 사두는 것이 유리하다고 주장. 중앙은행이 가격을 억제 중이지만 실물 수요가 누적되면 폭등할 것이라 봄. 금 관련 투자 대상으로 금 현물(bullion)과 금광주(mining stocks)를 언급. 경기침체 관점: Stoffel은 금리 인상 사이클로 인해 경기침체가 가까워졌다고 봄. 과거 18번의 경기침체 중 15번이 중앙은행 긴축 직후였다는 근거 제시. 양적긴축(QT)은 폭락 시 실패할 것이라 주장. 미국 부채 관점: 미국 국가부채는 21조 달러 이상이며 정치권이 해결 의지가 없다. 공화당 세제안으로 향후 10년간 약 1.5조 달러 추가 부채 예상. 중국 부채 관점: 중국의 기업부채는 GDP의 165%, 신용/GDP 비율은 장기 추세보다 약 25%p 높다는 IMF 경고를 인용. Jim Rickards는 중국 부채위기를 다음 금융위기의 촉발 요인으로 꼽음. 현장 방문에서 빈 유령도시를 목격했다고 주장. 금융 시스템 리스크: 그림자금융 확대, 암묵적 정부보증에 따른 도덕적 해이, 2008년 위기 전과 유사한 구조라는 우려. 크래시 전망: Bill Blain은 2018년 대폭락이 신용시장에서 시작될 것이라 예측. 출연자 전망: Schiff는 연준이 만든 거대 버블이 터질 것이며 시점은 모르지만 대비해야 한다고 주장. 금 가격은 결국 폭발할 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
golde now is like Christmas decorations in January a bargain when I was a kid my mom always went shopping on the day after Christmas she wasn't going out to spend her Christmas cash on some goodie Santa failed to leave under the tree she went out with the expressed purposes of buying Christmas cards wrapping paper and decorations but why go out and buy Christmas items the day after Christmas after all you're not going to need that stuff for about 11 months well if you've ever been out in the days after Christmas you know why stores slash prices on everything relating to the holiday it's the perfect time to buy if you want to save a little money during the recent precious metal summit in London incremental Managing Partner Ronald Peter Stoffel said his wife is a devout after Christmas sale shopper and as Forbes contributor Frank Holmes tells it we should look at gold today in the same way we look at Christmas items in January here we are several days before Christmas and demand for ornaments lights and other decorations is red hot so be prepared to pay premium prices if you're doing your shopping now but mere hours after the Christmas presents have been unwrapped and Uncle Hank has fallen asleep on the couch with a glass of boozy eggnog stars will begin slashing prices to get rid of inventory gold bullion and mining stocks are currently in the January phase so to speak according to stoph real in other words now is the time to buy gold to get into gold now while most investors remain disinterested and prices are relatively flat you don't want to be out there trying to buy gold when the next crisis kicks off and everybody is bidding up the press you want to be like my mom who is sitting pretty right now wrapping presents in cheap paper she bought last January while everybody else is at the mall forking out full price for their wrapping supplies Peter Schiff made the same point during an interview Greg hunter last month he said the massive bubble the Fed has blown up is going to burst we don't know when that will happen but we should prepare now how long can they keep the price of gold suppressed we will know when we get there at some point the price is going to explode because there is real physical buying and all that paper selling can't camouflage that people don't trust fiat currencies they don't trust the dollar euro yen they're looking for an alternative and believe me the real alternative is gold and more and more people are going to embrace it and when they do it's going to overwhelm the central bank's ability to suppress the price in the meantime enjoy the gift that they are giving because if you haven't already bought your gold whoever is selling it is doing you a favor the fact that the price still doesn't reflect the fundamentals means that it's easier to accumulate gold now Stoffel said he thinks a recession is on the horizon I think the odds are pretty high that a recession might be upon a sooner or later because we're in this rate hike cycle and as always the central banks are way behind the curve historically 15 of the last 18 recessions happened right after a period of central bank tightening and what is the Fed doing right now tightening and Stoffer all agrees with what Peter has been saying quantitative tightening will fail when the crash happens you will want to own gold but you can certainly wait to buy if you don't mind paying higher prices exploding Chinese that could threaten world financial system the u.s.
national debt stands at over 21 trillion dollars and neither political party in Washington DC seems inclined to do anything about it in fact the GOP tax plan winding its way through the political process will add an estimated 1.5 trillion dollars more to the debt over the next decade and that doesn't even account for the increases in spending that Congress will certainly approve over that Thomas Patton of course all of this government death has serious ramifications corporations are also piling on credit last month mint capital strategist bill blading predicted that the Great Crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper darker depths of the credit market now consider this China has an even bigger debt problem than the US and analysts say it could threaten global financial security Jim Rickards recently listed the chinese debt crisis is one of the possible snowflakes that could set off the next financial avalanche as if on cue the mainstream has picked up this narrative as Business Insider reports it China's ballooning levels of debt and dependency on credit to fuel growth continues to pose a major financial stability threat to the global economy and could be the catalyst for the next crisis according to the International Monetary Fund the IMF recently completed a fact-finding mission to China according to the international body credit growth has outpaced GDP growth creating a large credit overhang the credit to GDP ratio is now about 25 percent above the long-term trend very high by international standards and consistent with a high probability of financial distress as a result corporate debt has reached 165 percent of GDP and household debt while still low has risen by 15 percentage points of GDP over the past five years and is increasingly linked to asset price speculation the build-up of credit and traditional sectors has gone hand in hand with the slowdown of productivity growth and pressures on asset quality the IMF listed three areas of tension this pileup of death has created in the Chinese financial sector first expansionary monetary and fiscal policy aimed at supporting employment and growth sound familiar has led both national and local Chinese governments to provide huge incentives to keep failing companies afloat Rickard said he saw the impact of this on his visit to China I was out in the countryside south of Nanjing not too long ago visiting some of China's famous ghost cities I was with some communist party officials and provincial officials who were behind it all everything I saw construction as far as the eye can see magnificent in scope was all empty I've seen it firsthand I turned to one of these officials and said this is all dead finance this is all empty so you have no revenue to pay the debt so how are you going to pay the debt he said oh we can't but Beijing is going to bail us out now we hope Beijing will bail us out but Beijing will bail us out that isn't an isolated viewpoint it's widespread second risky lending has moved from banks toward less supervised parts of the financial system as the IMF put it Chinese investors are looking for increasingly complex ways to increase yields which has led to regulatory arbitrage and the growth of increasingly complex investment vehicles third widespread implicit guarantees have added to these risks according to the IMF Chinese financial institutions seem unwilling to allow investors to lose money this encourages even more risk-taking they don't see any downside a reluctance among financial institutions to allow retail investors to take losses the expectation that the government stands behind debt issued by state-owned enterprises in local government financing vehicles efforts to stabilize stock and bond markets in times of volatility and protection funds for various financial institutions have all contributed to moral hazard and excessive risk-taking loose monetary policy malinvestment and excessive risk-taking all of this sounds eerily like the setup before the 2008 crash this isn't the first time the IMF has warned about Chinese debt in an earlier report it called the current trajectory in China dangerous international experience suggests that China's credit growth is on a dangerous trajectory with increasing risks of a disruptive adjustment or a marked growth slowdown China has the second largest economy in the world behind the US accounting for nearly fifteen percent of the global economy according to World Bank figures as rickards pointed out if things crash there it will certainly reverberate around the world you I probability of financial distress as a result corporate debt has reached 165 percent of GDP and household debt while still low has risen by 15 percentage points of GDP over the past five years and is increasingly linked to asset price speculation the build-up of credit and traditional sectors has gone hand-in-hand with the slowdown of productivity growth and pressures on asset quality the IMF listed three areas of tension this pileup of death has created in the Chinese financial sector first expansionary monetary and fiscal policy aimed at supporting employment and growth sound familiar has led both national and local Chinese governments to provide huge incentives to keep failing companies afloat Rickard said he saw the impact of this on his visit to China I was out in the countryside south of Nanjing not too long ago visiting some of China's famous ghost cities I was with some communist party officials and provincial officials who were behind it all everything I saw construction as far as the eye can see magnificent in scope was all empty I've seen it firsthand I turned to one of these officials and said this is all dead finance this is all empty so you have no revenue to pay the debt well I'm the central bank's ability to suppress the price in the meantime enjoy the gift that they are giving because if you haven't already bought your gold whoever is selling it is doing you a favor the fact that the price still doesn't reflect the fundamentals means that it's easier to accumulate gold now Stoffel said he thinks a recession is on the horizon I think the odds are pretty high that a recession might be upon a sooner or later because we're in this rate hike cycle and as always the central banks are way behind the curve historically 15 of the last 18 recessions happened right after a period of central bank tightening and what is the Fed doing right now tightening and Stoffer all agrees with what Peters has been saying quantitative tightening will fail when the crash happens you will want to own gold but you can certainly wait to buy if you don't mind paying higher prices exploding Chinese that could threaten world financial system the u.s.
national debt stands at over 21 trillion dollars and neither political party in Washington DC seems inclined to do anything about it in fact the GOP tax plan winding its way through the political process will add an estimated 1.5 trillion dollars more to the debt over the next decade and that doesn't even account for the increases in spending that Congress gold now is like Christmas decorations in January a bargain when I was a kid my mom always went shopping on the day after Christmas she wasn't going out to spend to her Christmas cash on some goodie Santa failed to leave under the tree she went out with the expressed purposes of buying Christmas cards wrapping paper and decorations but why go out and buy Christmas items the day after Christmas after all you're not going to need that stuff for about 11 months well if you've ever been out in the days after Christmas you know why Storrs slash prices on everything relating to the holiday it's the perfect time to buy if you want to save a little money during the recent precious metals summit in London incremental Managing Partner Ronald Peter Stouffville said his wife is a devout after Christmas sale shopper and as Forbes contributor Frank Holmes tells it we should look at gold today in the same way we look at Christmas items in January here we are several days before Christmas and demand for ornaments lights and other decorations is red-hot so be prepared to pay premium prices if you're doing your shopping now but mere hours after the Christmas presents have been unwrapped and Uncle Hank has fallen asleep on the couch with a glass of boozy eggnog stars will begin slashing prices to get risk we'll certainly approve over that Thomas Patton of course all of this government debt has serious ramifications corporations are also piling on credit last month mint capital strategist bill Blaine predicted that the great crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper darker depths of the credit market now consider this China has an even bigger debt problem than the US and analysts say it could threaten global financial security Jim Rickards recently listed to Chinese debt crisis is one of the possible snowflakes that could set off the next financial avalanche as if on cue the mainstream has picked up this narrative as Business Insider reports it China's ballooning levels of debt and dependency on credit to fuel growth continues to pose a major financial stability threat to the global economy and could be the catalyst for the next crisis according to the International Monetary Fund the IMF recently completed a fact-finding mission to China according to the international body credit growth has outpaced GDP growth creating a large credit overhang the credit to GDP ratio is now about 25 percent above the long-term trend very high by international standards and consistent with a heart of inventory gold bullion and mining stocks are currently in the January phase so to speak according to stoph real in other words now is the time to buy gold get into gold now while most investors remain disinterested and prices are relatively flat you don't want to be out there trying to buy gold when the next crisis kicks off and everybody is bidding up the press you want to be like my mom who is sitting pretty right now wrapping presents in cheap paper she bought last January while everybody else is at the mall forking out full price for their wrapping supplies Peter Schiff made the same point during an interview Greg hunter last month he said the massive bubble the Fed has blown up is going to burst we don't know when that will happen but we should prepare now how long can they keep the price of gold suppressed we will know when we get there point the price is going to explode because there is real physical buying and all that paper selling can't camouflage that people don't trust fiat currencies they don't trust the dollar euro yen they're looking for an alternative and believe me the real alternative is gold and more and more people are going to embrace it and when they do it's going to over
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