저자: JimRogers/ErskineCharlesWilliam · 외국인
요약 보기
2018년 거시경제 전망 영상으로, 세계 성장 가속과 고용 개선, 인플레이션 상승, 중앙은행 긴축으로 금에는 하방 압력이 커서 약세장이 강세장보다 더 가능성이 높다는 결론이다. 세계 경제 성장: 2017년 세계 실질 GDP는 약 3.7% 성장해 2016년보다 높았고, 2010년 이후 처음으로 대부분의 예측을 상회했다. 골드만삭스 기준 2018년에는 약 4%까지 성장할 수 있으며, 성장은 여러 국가에 걸쳐 넓게 나타난다. 금은 경기침체 때 빛나는 자산이므로 견조한 성장은 금에 역풍이다. 고용과 인플레이션: 미국을 포함한 선진국 실업률이 위기 이전 수준으로 떨어졌고, 인플레이션도 2년 전보다 뚜렷하게 높아졌다. 다만 완만한 CPI 상승은 금 가격을 크게 끌어올리지 않으며, 인플레이션이 연준 목표를 크게 웃돌 때만 금이 강하게 오른다. 그럼에도 중기적으로 인플레이션 재점화는 금의 가장 큰 상방 리스크다. 중앙은행과 금리: 연준은 2015년 말 이후 다섯 차례 금리를 올렸고, 대차대조표 축소와 자산매입 감축을 진행 중이다. 2018년 FOMC 구성은 더 매파적이며, 금리 인상은 점진적이겠지만 세 차례 인상도 배제하기 어렵다. 금리 상승은 이자가 없는 금에 부정적이다. 실질금리와 달러: 견조한 성장과 재정정책 기대로 실질금리에도 상승 압력이 있으며, 금은 실질금리와 강한 음의 상관관계를 가진다. 2017년 금은 달러 약세의 지지를 받았지만, 2018년에는 그런 급격한 달러 매도가 나오기 어렵다고 본다. 시장 동향: 2018년 1월 런던 시장에서 금은 연초 대비 2.3% 올랐고 금 현물은 온스당 1,332달러의 4개월 고점을 찍었다. 미국 소비자물가는 12월 전년비 2.1%, 근원물가 1.8%였다. 숏커버링과 투기적 선물 거래가 가격을 밀어올렸고, GLD 보유량은 감소했다. 유로와 엔 강세로 금의 유로·엔 환산 가격은 주춤했으며, 중국 위안화 강세로 상하이 프리미엄은 낮아졌다. 결론과 리스크: 기본 시나리오는 견조한 성장, 낮은 인플레이션, 균형 잡힌 리스크이며 이는 금에 하방 압력이다. 그러나 미래는 불확실하고 블랙스완이 나타나면 금이 급등할 수 있다. 영상은 금 가격 목표가를 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
macroeconomic outlook for 2018 and gold luckily or not 2017 is behind us it was a positive year for the gold market as the yellow market gained more than 12 percent however investors are forward-looking so let's focus on what the coming months will bring the next year will be shaped mostly by the following broad economic trends global activity is improving labor markets are strengthening further subdued inflation is finally rising central banks are slowly reducing their monetary policy stimulus interest rates are rising let's analyze them now starting with the accelerating global growth in 2017 the global real GDP grew by about 3.7 percent it was higher than in 2016 and significantly above the expectations indeed the world economy is outperforming most predictions for the first time since 2010 and according to the goldman sachs the world's real economic activity may rise by even four percent next year importantly the global growth is broad-based across countries gold is a safe haven asset which shines the brightest during periods of economic malaise such as Great Recession hence the solid economic growth likely to occur next year will be a serious headwind for the yellow middle with relatively strong economic momentum the labor markets should strengthen further in several developed countries including the US the unemployment rate has already fallen to the pre-crisis level the advanced economies are thus near full employment with quickly closing output gaps chart 1 the unemployment rate in the inflation rate in the US over the last ten years hence the flourishing economy and the tightening labor market should finally raise inflation actually inflation is significantly higher than two years ago as one can see in the chart above Gold is perceived to be a hedge against inflation but have moderate increase in the CPI or the sepi should not boost the price of the yellow middle gold shines brightly during periods of high an accelerating inflation so unless inflation gets out of control significantly exceeding the feds target it should not rally madly however we cannot exclude inflation rearing its ugly head again actually this is one of the biggest upside risks for the gold market in the medium term indeed the rebound in inflation may actually encourage the central bank's to adopt a more hawkish stance this is what has been happening recently the Fed hiked interest rates five times since the end of 2015 it also started to an wind its enormous balance sheet and even the ekor deuce the scale of its monthly asset purchases last year additionally the composition of the fom can 2018 will be more hawkish so we expect a continuation of policy normalization the tightening will be gradual for sure but three hikes are not unlikely next year or they may come earlier as the US central bank has fewer reasons than in 2017 to pause the rate hike cycle at the beginning of a new year tighter monetary policies and less accommodation imply higher interest rates which is negative for gold zero income asset importantly there might be also an upward pressure on the real interest rates due to the solid economic growth and rising expectations of the fiscal policy stimulus this is of great significance as gold has a strong negative correlation with real interest rates the implications of the upcoming economic trends are not good for the gold market we predict that the global recovery will continue so we will have basically solid economic growth with low inflation and balanced risks in the global economy thus the macroeconomic environment is likely to observe downward pressure on the yellow middle it does not mean that we expect our plunge in gold prices but we simply consider a bear market to be more probable than the bull market surely if the Goldilocks economy remains in place the Saito a strength in the boolean market may continue what we are saying that the downward move is more likely due to the solid economic momentum and rising interest rates but a lot will depend on the performance of the US dollar in 2017 the price of gold was supported by the depreciation of the greenback we believed that was similar sell-off is unlikely this year so there is a more room for declines in gold prices at least in the short or medium term last but not least we painted the base scenario above but future is uncertain and a lot may happen on the way so it does not need to materialize if some black swans land the price of gold may jump we will analyze the potential upside risks for the gold market in the next part of this edition of the market overview if you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the most important macroeconomic factors influencing the price of gold we invite you to read the January market overview report if you're interested in the detailed price of analysis and price projections with targets we invite you to sign up for our golden silver trading alerts if you're not ready to subscribe yet and are not on our gold mailing list yet we urge you to sign up it's free and if you don't like it you can easily unsubscribe sign up today jld gold investment goes AWOL as short-covering sees bullion jump versus sinking dollar gold investment bars pushed their new year 2018 gains to two point three percent versus a falling dollar in london trade friday rising even as world stock markets extend of yesterday's fresh record highs and US equities large bullion bars traded by wholesalers and investment dealers reached new four-month highs at one thousand three hundred and thirty two dollars per ounce before heading back after new data said US inflation in consumer prices held firmer than expected in december the official CPI index rose two point one percent from twelve months before with so-called core prices rising one point eight percent from November's one point seven percent annual pace platinum prices outpaced gold yet again adding seven point three percent for 2018 today to touch seventeen week highs just four dollars shy of the $1,000 mark but silver lagged badly trading lower for the week even against the US dollar no doubt stretched shorts instigated over the past fortnight are playing a role in the gold price gained says the latest trading note from Swiss refiners MKS pam pointing to speculative trading and Comex futures and options contracts rather than physical bullion a test of the recent high of 1357 dollars we'll see further aggressive short-covering amongst gold-backed trust funds the giant SPDR Gold trust ended Thursday and changed in size even as the share price rose with the cost of bullion thanks to shareholders liquidating the GLD a major proxy for investment fund is wanting to track the gold price it has now shrunk 1.6 percent since bullion bottom dat 5 month lows immediately before the u.s.
feds December rate rise the investment gold prices have in contrast gained seven point six percent for dollar buyers the GLD was last this small and late August gold prices were also then rising through 1330 dollars per ounce the single euro currency meantime rose Friday to new three-year highs above one dollar and 21 cents that pushed gold investing prices and Euro terms back down to unchanged for the week at 1098 euros per ounce yen gold prices stood one point zero percent lower from last Friday's 30 month peak as the Japanese currency rose the six week highs versus the dollar on the FX market most Western commentators do not give developments in Japan as much attention as it deserves says the latest global strategy note from permobil Albert Edwards that French investment bank Societas Generale could it be that a surprise monetary tightening in Japan will finally burst the global asset price bubble it is now entirely conceivable that the improved economic and inflation picture prompts the Bank of Japan to cut its QE leaving the market badly wrong footed and prompting a massive 2008 like on wind having bucked the trend of gaining versus the dollar all week the Chinese yuan also jumped overnight Friday hitting its strongest level versus the US currency since September's spike to 18 month highs priced in the yuan shanghai gold rose only one-third as fast as global dollar quotes for investment grade bullying that squashed the shanghai premium back below $1 per ounce holding this week's average incentive for new imports to the world's no.1 consumer nation almost 20% below a typical level physical interest out of Asia continues to remain muted says MKS PAMP rather the metal continues to remain bid on the back of the weaker greenback after China's factory gauge inflation slowed only to four point nine percent per annum in December stronger than analysts forecast US producer prices showed their first month on month decline in the year on Thursday's new data pulling the annual rate of inflation down to 2.6 percent dear or they may come earlier as the u.s.
sent has fewer reasons than in 2017 to pause the rate hike cycle at the beginning of a new year tighter monetary policies and less accommodation imply higher interest rates which is negative for gold zero income asset importantly there might be also an upward pressure on the real interest rates due to the solid economic growth and rising expectations of the fiscal policy stimulus this is of great significance as gold has a strong negative correlation with real interest rates the implications of the upcoming economic trends are not good for the gold market we predict that the global recovery will continue so we will have basically solid economic growth with low inflation and balanced risks in the global economy thus the macroeconomic environment is likely to exert downward pressure on the yellow metal it does not mean that we expect our plunge in gold prices but we simply consider a bear market to be more probable than the bull market surely if the Goldilocks economy remains in place the saito a strength in the bullion market may continue what we are saying that the downward move is more likely due to the solid economic momentum and rising interest rates but a lot will depend on the performance of the US dollar in 2017 the price of gold was supported by the appreciation of the greenback we believe that was similar sell-off is unlikely this year so there is a more room for declines in gold prices at least in the short or medium term last but not least we painted the base scenario above but future is uncertain and allowed me with relatively strong economic momentum the labor markets should strengthen further in several developed countries including the u.s.
the unemployment rate has already fallen to the pre-crisis level the advanced economies are thus near full employment with quickly closing output gaps chart 1 the unemployment rate in the inflation rate in the u.s. over the last 10 years hence the flourishing economy and the tightening labor markets should finally raise inflation actually inflation is significantly higher than two years ago as one can see in the chart above gold is perceived to be a hedge against inflation but have moderate increase in the CPI or the SEPA should not boost the price of the yellow middle gold shines brightly during periods of high an accelerating inflation so unless inflation gets out of control significantly exceeding the feds target it should not rally madly however we cannot exclude inflation rearing its ugly head again actually this is one of the biggest upside risks for the gold market in the medium term indeed the rebound in inflation may actually encourage the central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance this is what has been happening recently the Fed hiked interest rates five times since the end of 2015 it also started to an wind its enormous balance sheet and even the ekor deuce the scale of its monthly asset purchases last year additionally the composition of the fom can 2018 will be more hawkish so we expect a continuation of policy normalization the tightening will be gradual for sure but three hikes are not unlikely next happen on the way so it does not need to materialize if some black swans land the price of gold may jump we will analyze the potential upside risks for the gold market in the next part of this edition of the market overview if you enjoyed the above analysis and would you like to know more about the most important macroeconomic factors influencing the price of gold we invite you to read the January market overview report if you're interested in the detailed price of analysis and price projections with targets we invite you to sign up for our golden silver trading alerts if you're not ready to subscribe yet and are not on our gold mailing list yet we urge you to sign up it's free and if you don't like it you can easily unsubscribe sign up today jld gold investment goes AWOL as short-covering sees bullion jump versus sinking dollar gold investment bars pushed their new year 2018 games to two point three percent versus a falling dollar in london trade friday rising even as world stock markets extended yesterday's fresh record highs and US equities large bullion bars traded by wholesalers and investment dealers reached new four-month highs at one thousand three hundred and thirty two dollars per ounce before heading back after new data said US inflation in consumer prices held firmer than expected in december the official CPI index rose two point one percent from twelve months before with so-called core prices rising one point eight percent from November's one point seven percent annual pace platinum prices outpaced gold yet again adding seven point three percent for 2018 today to touch seventeen week highs just four dollars shy of the $1,000 mark but silver lagged badly trading lower for the week even against the US dollar no doubt stretched arts instigated over the past fortnight are playing a role in the gold price gain says the latest trading note from Swiss refiners MK s Pam pointing to speculative trading and comics futures and options contracts rather than physical bullion a test of the recent high of one thousand three hundred and fifty seven dollars we'll see further aggressive short-covering amongst gold backed trust funds the giant SPDR Gold trust ended Thursday unchanged in size even as the share price rose with the cost of bullion thanks to shareholders liquidating the GLD a major proxy for investment fund is wanting to track the gold price it has now shrunk 1.6 percent since bullion bottom dat five month lows immediately before the u.s.
feds December rate rise investment gold prices have in contrast gained seven point six percent for dollar buyers the GLD was last this small and late August gold prices were also then rising through 1330 dollars per ounce the single euro currency meantime rose Friday to new three-year has above one dollar and 21 cents that pushed gold investing prices and euro terms back down to unchanged for the week at 1098 euros per ounce yen gold prices stood one point zero percent lower from last Friday's 30 month peak as the Japanese currency rose the six week highs versus the dollar on the FX market most Western commentators do not give developments in Japan as much attention as it deserves says the latest global strategy note from macroeconomic outlook for 2018 and gold luckily or not 2017 is behind us it was a positive year for the gold market as the yellow market gained more than 12 percent however investors are forward-looking so let's focus on what the coming months will bring the next year will be shaped mostly by the following broad economic trends global activity is improving labor markets are strengthening further subdued inflation is finally rising central banks are slowly reducing their monetary policy stimulus interest rates are rising let's analyze them now starting with the accelerating global growth in 2017 the global real GDP grew by about 3.7 percent it was higher than in 2016 and significantly above the expectations indeed the world economy is outperforming most predictions for the first time since 2010 and according to the goldman sachs the world's real economic activity may rise by even four percent next year importantly the global growth is broad-based across countries gold is a safe haven asset which shines the brightest during periods of economic malaise such as Great Recession hence the solid economic growth likely to occur next year will be a serious headwind for the yellow middle
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