저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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비트코인은 가치 없는 투기적 버블이며 금을 대체할 수 없다는 주장. 핵심 주장: 암호화폐는 공기 위에 세워진 가치로, 집단사고(groupthink)에 의해서만 가격이 정해진다고 봄. 근거: 비트코인은 한 달 사이 20%, 일주일에 40% 변동 가능. 1918~1924년 독일 하이퍼인플레이션 시기 화폐보다도 불안정하며 베네수엘라 볼리바르보다 보장이 약함. 근거: 주식은 기업 자산·특허·재고가 뒷받침하지만 비트코인은 뒷받침 자산이 없음. 주식 기대수익은 연 7~8%(운이 좋으면 10%). 금과의 비교: 금은 1971년 닉슨 이후 달러와의 연계가 끊긴 뒤에도 헤지 자산으로 쓰여 왔고, 2017년 이후 금과 비트코인이 같은 방향으로 움직여 같은 위험에 반응하는 것으로 봄. 정책 리스크: 한국의 암호화폐 규제 발언으로 비트코인이 약 20% 하락해 10,000달러 아래로 밀렸다가 회복했으나 신뢰성·안정성을 입증하지 못함. 중국 및 미국·EU 등 민주국가도 규제를 강화할 가능성이 있으며, 규제가 강해질수록 변동성과 제약이 커짐. 범죄·감시 측면: 비트코인이 당국의 통제를 피하는 점 때문에 범죄 목적에 쓰이며, 이 특성이 오히려 규제 표적이 되는 취약성으로 작용함. 기술 리스크: 비트코인 지갑은 전기에 의존하므로 핵전쟁 등 상황에서는 가치가 0이 될 수 있음. 금·은 실물은 전기 없이도 가치를 유지. 결론: 비트코인은 금의 대체재가 아니며, 가격 상승 시 투자자는 더 경계해야 한다는 입장. 금은 2017년 말 고점 대비 약 40% 하락 후에도 1만 1천 달러 수준을 유지한다고 언급. 출연자 전망: 비트코인 가격은 추가 규제 발표에 취약하며, 단기 급락 가능성을 경고. 중기·장기적으로 금 보유를 선호하는 입장.
다듬은 글
Gold vs Bitcoin can Bitcoin replace gold as an asset investment gold versus Bitcoin chart bitcoin has enjoyed such a run over the past few months that you'd think the alchemists of the Middle Ages were right apparently gold can be created or better after losing some 40% off its december peak at near $20,000 the according is still valued at around $11,000 rumors have already spread about Bitcoin acquiring a reserve currency status but why stop there before the concept of reserve currency became the norm in global finance and economics it was gold that determined the value of everything in many ways gold retains that reserve characteristic while fiat money is the norm it has only been so since 1971 that's when President Richard Nixon broke up the relationship between gold in the dollar yet gold has remained the asset of choice to hedge investors from bearish markets and currencies looking at a gold versus Bitcoin chart for the past year there's a striking pattern golden Bitcoin have moved higher harmoniously it suggests they respond in similar ways to the same risks the main risk at the start of 2017 was President Donald Trump the big analysts from their Wall Street Towers expected major volatility instead Trump delivered the biggest bull market run in recent memory the Dow Jones gained some 25 percent but many investors remained wary a shadow of impeachment hangs over the Trump White House embed growing international tensions and uncertainties gold versus Bitcoin market camp the best way to describe Trump's modus operandi is unpredictability he may not have drained the swamp but he's radically changed the look of the presidency even the tax cuts that have contributed so much to extending the bull run contain within them a major risk social implosion that would certainly explain why gold has kept its value exceeding expectations until last October it also explains why Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were becoming popular investors wanted to ensure they had good substitutes just like a hockey coach during a playoff match but as the gold versus Bitcoin market cap numbers show something happened in November that altered the pattern call it Bitcoin mania or a Bitcoin craze if you wish I call it the Bitcoin bubble I'm merely one of many analysts who were skeptical about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies at first only to become downright opposed to them simply put cryptocurrencies our values built on air there's nothing of value they are simply based on what a group of people decide to pay for them groupthink rarely produces anything of value the problem with bubbles is that those who are living and then refused to acknowledge the phenomenon they only do so after the bubble implodes or explodes it's all a matter of how quickly the sentiment goes sour the skeptics can only observe and try to persuade it's a thankless and difficult task still if you have any doubts about whether to be bullish or bearish on cryptocurrencies ask yourself a simple question how much return in a good year can you reasonably expect when you invest $100 or $1,000 or any other amount in a respected stock on Wall Street or any recognized exchange around the world sometimes you could gain 20% but those are the result of a combination of exceptional circumstances and exceptional stocks normally you can expect seven or eight percent returns 10% if you're lucky note that behind the stock there's an actual company it has employees valuable assets patents intellectual property inventory and a market for its goods bitcoins meanwhile have nothing to back them up yet courting is not a stock and it's not really a currency how could it be a currency that people use when its value can change 20% in a day and 40% in a week even Germany in the hyperinflation heydays between 1918 and 1924 had a more stable currency than that for a more current comparison the venezuelan bolivar offers better guarantees and cryptocurrencies gold versus Bitcoin volatility perhaps if coins success in the cryptocurrencies rended a spawn dose to the Occupy Wall Street movement and the financial crisis of 2008 many have become disenchanted with stocks and the financial markets and justifiably so I don't blame them indeed I sympathize with them and share their concerns for instance the current bull market is heading toward a disaster but if they wanted an alternative all they had to do was look to their jewelry boxes most likely they would have found their reminder of the alternative or the hedge to stock market vagaries Gould evidently many investors particularly younger ones see Bitcoin as the new gold and that's where the golden Bitcoin comparison starts and where it ends cryptocurrencies appeal to Millennials and those who have listened to Jimmy to Iran at hearts one too many times after all that lovely song has began with fairy tales can come true those same Millennials don't like gold it's for rich old conservative people it's not cool yet coin on the other hand is the coolest it's like totally crypto man gold versus Bitcoin 2018 the appeal of Bitcoin is its space age slash cyber age technology yet that technology depends on power good old fashioned electricity bitcoins are virtual for lack of a better term things many associate them with an image of what looks like a gold coin with a big B in the middle rather without electricity you can't use your Bitcoin wallet to buy anything after a nuclear war for example and given the geopolitical risks in 2018 nobody can rule one out bitcoins will have zero value the jewelry bitcoins gold or silver or even steel renditions of the Bitcoin image will have more value than the bitcoins themselves perhaps many of the new Bitcoin investors who probably have no clue on what they are spending their actual and hard Duren currencies think they've bought a chunk of the Bitcoin coins the appeal of Bitcoin after all this davits lips through rules and authority that makes Bitcoin very much unlike gold which takes up space in vaults and safes to be stored the fact that cryptocurrencies slip by the authorities is why criminals in any entity with subversive ins including some governments or government agencies appreciate them nevertheless this very characteristic and apparent advantage of cryptocurrencies is what will increasingly make them more vulnerable that's the opposite of gold among other things starting with a sudden dose of reality raining down on the Bitcoin to rate one of the main drivers of cryptocurrencies Allah Tillett II as their use in criminal enterprises the other is that governments which still exercise considerable vigilance over their citizens financial activities are wary of allowing them to evade controls through something like Bitcoin it's unfortunate that China should be one of those governments after all by 2050 if not sooner China could be the world's leading economy in addition communist or not the Chinese have taken to investing like sue Tuan green beans to soy sauce the health on cryptocurrencies trading in South Korea suggests that regulatory concerns also exist in democracies who's to suggest that the United States or the European Union won't start taking a closer look at cryptocurrencies South Korea's legal musings have forced Bitcoin to drop by almost 20% it fell below $10 and then recovered but it failed to establish the kind of credibility or stability if he will needs to replace gold yes both assets constitute an alternative to Wall Street but that's where the golden Bitcoin similarities end if you need more proof that they're nothing alike try to conduct electricity or make a nice bracelet with bitcoins put it this way if it can't be a bit it's not a coin try taking a Bitcoin into the pawnshop the difference in the golden Bitcoin price Mar / can be witnessed should you take a gold bracelet to the bomb broker during the blackout the bracelet no matter how ugly are beautiful the workmanship will have a value based on its gold content the Bitcoin will be less than zero won't have any value the more cryptocurrencies increase in value the more investors should be wary the regulatory authorities and not just in China or Korea will start to take a closer look that's what happened after the 1929 stock market crash after all regulators stepped in to ensure more transparency a word that implies the very opposite of crypto South Korea by the way happens to be the country where most gripped the currency transactions occur the more popular and volatile cryptocurrencies become the more they will be regulated and restricted in Europe concerned authorities have already demanded more assurances for consumers or cryptocurrencies investors suggestions of Bitcoin could even serve as an alternative currency in countries with weak financial systems would not be so out of place if Bitcoin had the kind of stability that can make that possible then again why you spit coin when many of those countries largely in Africa have billions of real dollars worth of real and tangible gold resources your coin is still valued at around $11,000 rumors have already spread about Bitcoin acquiring a reserve currency status but why stop there before the concept of reserve currency became the norm in global finance and economics it was gold that determined the value of everything in many ways gold retains that reserve characteristic while fiat money is the norm it has only been so since 1971 that's when President Richard Nixon broke up the relationship between gold in the dollar yet gold has remained the asset of choice to hedge investors from bearish markets and substitutes just like a hockey coach during a playoff match but as the gold versus Bitcoin market cap numbers show something happened in November that altered the pattern call it with corn mania or a Bitcoin craze if you wish I call it the Bitcoin bubble I'm merely one of many analysts who were skeptical about Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies let first only to become downright opposed to them simply put cryptocurrencies our values built on air there's nothing of value they are simply based on what a group of people decide to pay for them groupthink currencies looking at a gold versus Bitcoin chart for the past year there's a striking pattern golden bitcoin have moved higher harmoniously it suggests they respond in similar ways to the same risks the main risk at the start of 2017 was President Donald Trump the big analysts from their Wall Street Towers expected major volatility instead Trump delivered the biggest bull market run in recent memory the Dow Jones gained some 25 percent but many investors remained wary a shadow of impeachment hangs over the Trump White House and growing international tensions and uncertainties gold versus Bitcoin market cap the best way to describe Trump's modus operandi is unpredictability he may not have drained the swamp but he's radically changed the look of the presidency even the tax cuts that have contributed so much to extending the bull run contain within them a major risk social implosion that would certainly explain why gold has kept its value exceeding expectations until last October it also explains why Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were becoming popular investors wanted to ensure they had good Gold vs Bitcoin can Bitcoin replace gold as an asset investment gold versus Bitcoin chart Bitcoin has enjoyed such a run over the past few months that you think the alchemists of the Middle Ages were right apparently gold can be created or better even after losing some 40% off its december peak at near $20,000.00
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