저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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첫 줄: 영상은 2018년 주식시장 폭락 가능성을 경고하며, 투자자 낙관론이 과열되어 있어 조정 가능성이 크다고 주장한다. 투자심리 과열: VIX(공포지수)가 25년 만에 최저 수준이며, 2007년 VIX 저점 이후 몇 달 뒤 대폭락이 있었다는 점을 근거로 든다. 약세 펀드 자금 유출: 시장 하락에 베팅하는 약세 주식펀드 자산이 2016년 초 고점 대비 78% 감소했다. 검색 지표: 구글 트렌드상 'how to buy stocks' 검색량이 최근 5년 내 최고 수준으로, 대중의 낙관을 보여준다고 해석한다. 가치평가: 시장 PER은 약 20배이며, 테슬라 PER은 -411 수준으로 제시된다. 실러 CAPE 비율은 31을 넘어 1929년 이후 및 닷컴 버블 수준에 근접했다고 언급한다. 자사주 매입: S&P500 기업들이 2012년 2분기~2017년 2분기 약 2.7조 달러를 자사주 매입에 썼으며, 금리 인상 시 이 매수세가 줄 수 있다고 본다. 정책·재정 리스크: 트럼프 감세안은 의회 분열로 통과가 불투명하며, 미국 국가부채는 20조 달러를 넘었다. 금리 100bp 상승 시 약 2000억 달러의 추가 이자 부담이 생긴다고 경고한다. 기술주 밸류에이션: 2017년 일부 성장주의 과열이 지적되며, 아마존 등의 성장이 전통 유통(예: 토이저러스 파산)을 압박하고 있다고 언급한다. 가격 급등: 다우지수가 2016년 이후 약 9,000포인트 급등했고, 2016년 1월~2017년 12월 사이 하락 월이 4개월뿐이라 저항이 약하다고 평가한다. 결론: 현 시점은 강세에 베팅할 때가 아니라 신중할 때이며, 대규모 랠리 전에 폭락이 올 수 있다는 경고로 마무리한다.
다듬은 글
predict stock market crash coming will the next stock market crash strike in 2018 three stock market crash charts every investor must watch when does a stock market crash happen legendary investor Sir John Templeton says bull markets are born on pessimism grown on skepticism mature on optimism and diarrhea as it stands there's an abundance of optimism among investors it's borderline euphoria it free tells a stock market crash be very careful if you own stocks fear index not so fearful to get an idea of how severe the optimism is these days just look at the chart below it shows the Chicago Board Options Exchange bow volatility index VIX this index is often called the fear index as well the fear index currently sits at the lowest level in 25 years in other words investors haven't been this optimistic for almost a quarter of a century a stock market crash is the least of their concerns mind you there's one thing to pay extra attention to whenever the fear index reaches extreme lows a stock market crash usually follows for example we saw the VIX drop to historical lows in 2007 and a broad market sell-off followed a few months later bearish funds witnessing severe outflows beyond this look at the chart below not a new chart to long-term readers of Lombardi letter at its core the chart above tracks assets and bearish stock funds over the last two years these funds have witnessed severe outflows funds betting on a stock market crash aren't getting much attention from investors it suggests again that investors are severely optimistic and not concerned about a sell-off bearish stock funds assets have declined 78% from peaks in early 2016 how to buy stocks searches surged lastly look at another chart it's from Google Trends for the search term how to buy stocks the chart below ranges from 0 to 100 when the search volume hits 100 it means the term is very popular notice something interesting on this chart the number of searches for how to buy stocks is surging as markets are making new highs more and more people want to know how to buy stocks as a matter of fact the search traffic for this term has never been this high in the last 5 years if this doesn't say optimism then what will stock market outlook we could be closing in on a sell-off dear reader soaring optimism as markets are at their all-time highs is something that shouldn't be ignored look back at previous stock market crashes just before them optimism was soaring everyone wanted to get involved listen to great investors they have warned about this over and over again it's time to pause and reflect when everyone wants to buy when will the next stock market crash happen know that a rationality can remain for a very long time so the optimism we see now could get even more euphoric but it can't go on forever I will end with this we may be closer to a stock market crash than a massive rally will the next stock market crash strike in 2018 what on earth could be responsible for such optimism after all the after repeated adage that Trump's tax cuts have been feeding the Bulls on Wall Street has run its course the tax cuts have not been approved and with the divide in Congress a divided also within Republicans themselves there's little chance of the major reductions occurring Maur over the u.s.
debt now exceeds 20 trillion dollars no expert prediction or technical indicator is necessary the makings of the next crash are already clear whether it's Janet Yellen or Tyrone Powell who will head the Federal Reserve after February 2018 interest rates can only move higher at the current rate of debt even 100 basis points 1% higher interest will mean two hundred billion dollars in additional not all mind you just the extra bit in debt how does this affect the stock market can you cause another black Monday answers are rather direct yes if there is anything you can bet on in 2018 or even in this latter part of 2017 it's that a major market correction such as what happened on October 19th 1987 that is Black Monday looks likely on Black Monday the markets were a bit different than today that's the explanation that many market optimists like to offer when they explain why another Black Monday can't happen that is the market cannot lose some 23 percent of its value in a single trading session they might be right but in the opposite direction the markets now have human as well as computer input through so-called robot trading they have more variables and are more complicated but information and risks travel much faster if anything the risks of a major market crash are higher today the price to earnings P / e ratio now is around 20 times in many cases for some of the star stocks of 2017 the P / e ratio is completely different the P / e ratio for Tesla nasdaq:tsla for instance in 2018 is minus 411 point three seven indeed Tesla's performance has all the makings of a stock market crash chart to reflect the irrational exuberance of 2018 investors have pushed Tesla's stock market valuation to such a degree that it has infected the healthiest hedge fund it's a one stock Black Monday warning the Tesla stock market chart it's moving on hope and expectations alone every time the quarter results are released the stock tends to drop were past Black Monday the situation is more dramatic it's beyond Black Monday the next stock market crash will combine the effects of Black Monday with the tech bubble of 1999 to 2000 and the recession that resulted from the crash of 2007 to 2008 the Shiller Cape ratio which measures a stocks performance by comparing its price against earnings over a 10-year period has reached the very point when Alan Greenspan pronounced his famous their rational exuberance speech the Shiller Cape ratio now stands at just over 31 it was only hired before 1929 on the.com bubble it's time to fasten your seat belts the market right is going to get bumpy but in the dot-com 1990s there was some real economic growth now one of the indicators of overall economic health the retail sector is falling apart the number of major store chains shutting down or downsizing is remarkable one of the latest to fallas Toys R Us some may find consolation and the fact that one of the reasons for the crumbling of traditional brick-and-mortar stores but by no means the only one has been amazon.com incorporated Nasdaq Am's but the day could come when given this giant is slain thus when you combine factors like irrational exuberance the Warren Buffett indicator and signals from the real economy you realize this all that separates the markets from a major crash is a single spark the pair is ready this is why a stock market crash could be ahead warning don't get too complacent with soaring key stock indices a stock market crash remains a possibility for 2018 there are three things investors need to keep in mind going into 2018 stock buybacks investors euphoria and price escalation S&P 500 companies by immense amounts of their own shares you see over the past few years there has been an invisible hand that has been supporting the stock markets stock buybacks by the companies on the key stock indices thanks to low interest rates companies were able to borrow money and buy their own stocks consider this for example between the second quarter of 2012 and the second quarter of 2017 S&P 500 companies spent a little over 2.7 trillion dollars on buybacks the trillion figure is not a misprint how significant is 2.7 trillion dollars this is similar to the gross domestic product GDP of the United Kingdom now interest rates are increasing will the companies continue to buy their own stocks like they have been over the past five years or so it wouldn't be shocking if companies reduce their spending on buybacks with all this said remember that if stock buybacks decline major buyers will suddenly be out of the market this could make a lot of investors worried and we could see losses investors euphoria continues to soar as markets continues to soar investor euphoria keeps on climbing mind you you forea is one of the best indicators of an upcoming stock market crash just look at the chart below it plus the percentage of bullish respondents from the American Association of individual investors investor sentiment survey in the last decade investors have never been as bullish on stocks as they are now in the most recent survey 59 point eight percent of all respondents said they were bullish on the stock market the last time this figure was this high was back in 2003 extreme price escalation on key stock indices look at the price action on the markets - we are seeing them increase way too quickly this has been mentioned here before it's usually the last phase of the bull market when there's a rapid move to the upside consider the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart below there are two things to notice here first the trend on the Dow between 2009 and 2016 was very gradual since early 2016 it has just taken off the index increased 9,000 points between 2016 and now an extremely quick rise relative to historical performance second between January 2016 and December 2017 there were only four months when the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined this says there's really no resistance what's ahead for the stock market I completely understand that any talk of a stock market crash at this point when key stock indices are soaring sounds outright irrational but as I said earlier don't get too complacent dear reader I continue to ask one question could the Dow Jones Industrial Average double in the next eight years sadly I don't see it happening before there's a massive rally we could see a stock market crash as I see it this is not the time to get bullish on stocks rather it's time to get cautious step back a little and reflect on what is happening after repeated adage that trumps tax cuts have been feeding the Bulls on Wall Street has run its course the tax cuts have not been approved and with the divide in Congress a divide also within Republicans themselves there's little chance of the major reductions occurring moreover the US debt now exceeds 20 trillion dollars no expert prediction or technical indicator is necessary the makings of the next crash are already clear whether it's Janet Yellen or Tyrone Powell who will head the Federal Reserve after February 2018 interest rates can only move higher at the current rate of debt even 100 basis points one percent higher interest will mean 200 billion dollars in additional not all mind you just the extra bit in debt how does this affect the stock market can you cause another black Monday the answers are rather direct it suggests again that investors are severely optimistic and not concerned about a sell-off bearish stock funds assets have declined 78% from peaks in early 2016 how to buy stocks searches surge lastly look at another chart it's from Google Trends for the search term how to buy stocks the chart below ranges from 0 to 100 when the search volume hits 100 it means the term is very popular notice something interesting on this chart the number of searches for how to buy stocks is surging as markets are making new highs more and more people want to know how to buy stocks as a matter of fact the search traffic for this term has never been this high in the last 5 years if this doesn't say optimism then what will predict stock market crash coming will the next stock market crash strike in 2018 3 stock market crash charts every investor must watch when does a stock market crash happen legendary investor Sir John Templeton says bull markets are born on pessimism grown on skepticism mature on optimism and die Emporia as it stands there's an abundance of optimism among investors it's borderline euphoria it free tells a stock market crash be very careful if you own stocks fury index not so fearful to get an idea of how severe the optimism is these days just look at the chart below it shows the Chicago Board Options Exchange bow volatility index VIX this index is often called the fury index as well the fury in stock market outlook we could be closing in on a sell-off dear reader soaring optimism as markets are at their all-time highs is something that shouldn't be ignored look back at previous stock market crashes just before them optimism was soaring everyone wanted to get involved if you listen to great investors they have warned about this over and over again it's time to pause and reflect when everyone wants to buy when will the next stock market crash happen know that a rationality can remain for a very long time so the optimism we see now could get even more euphoric but it can't go on forever I will end with this we may be closer to a stock market crash than a massive rally will the next stock market crash strike in 2018 what on earth could be responsible for such optimism after all the objects currently sits at the lowest level in 25 years in other words investors haven't been this optimistic for almost a quarter of a century a stock market crash is the least of their concerns mind you there's one thing to pay extra attention to whenever the fear index reaches extreme lows a stock market crash usually follows for example we saw the VIX drop to historical lows in 2007 and a broad market sell-off followed a few months later bearish funds witnessing severe outflows beyond this look at the chart below it's not a new chart to long term readers of lombardi letter at its core the chart above tracks assets and bearish stock funds over the last two years these funds have witnessed severe outflows Fonda's betting on a stock market crash aren't getting much attention from investors
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