저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 파월 연준 의장 체제에서도 저금리·양적완화 기조가 유지될 것이며, 이는 거품을 키우고 장기적으로 채권 거품 붕괴와 기업부채 위기를 부를 것이라는 비관론. 파월 지명과 인준 전망: 트럼프가 지명한 파월은 옐런·버냉키의 정책을 계승할 것으로 평가됨. 상원 청문회는 비교적 평온했고 민주당·공화당 일부 반대가 있었으나 대체로 인준 가능성이 높다는 취지. 파월의 발언 해석: 파월은 위기 대응 권한의 유연성과 적극적 대응을 강조. 발언자는 이를 중앙은행 주도 금융체제(PhD 표준)의 연장으로 보고 거품과 잘못된 투자를 부추긴다고 비판. 채권 거품 경고: 빌 블레인 등을 인용해 채권 거품이 곧 터지며 주식도 함께 하락할 수 있다고 주장. 정상 금리 환경에서 미국 연방부채 이자 부담이 크게 늘어난다는 분석(부채 2.05조달러 기준 금리 1%p 상승 시 연 2,050억달러 추가 이자) 제시. 금리 역사 비교: 1980년대 초 볼커 시기 10년물 국채 금리 15.3%, 현재 2.4% 수준. 미국 순채권국 지위 소멸, 외국 달러 보유 및 달러 기축통화 체제 도전 가능성 언급. 기업부채 리스크: 다음 금융위기는 기업부채(특히 하이일드 시장)에서 나올 가능성. 토이저러스 파산 사례를 들어 저금리 레버리지 인수(LBO)의 취약성 강조. 고부채 기업, 헬스케어·통신 섹터 등 취약성 지적. 자산별 방향 예측: 발언 중 1~3개월 단위의 명시적 가격 예측은 거의 없음. 채권 거품 붕괴 및 주식 동반 하락 가능성은 경고 수준의 장기적 리스크 언급. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 비관적이며 금·달러 대체 체제 등 구조적 변화를 강조.
다듬은 글
walking in their footsteps power will maintain status quo unfed it looks like Trump's pick to chair the Federal Reserve plans to walk in the footsteps of his predecessors in other words we can expect the legacy of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen to continue unbroken that means a continuation of interventionist monetary policy artificially low interest rates into the foreseeable future and plenty of quantitative easing when the time comes yes the new boss looks a lot like the old boss Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday the New York Times described it as a relatively Placid affair maintaining the status quo doesn't set off too many fireworks Democrats seem okay with a pic interestingly the people who were against Powell when he was an Obama appointee are okay with him now that he's a trump appointee some Democrats have indicated they might oppose the nomination but importantly mr.
Powell drew little opposition from conservative Republicans who opposed both his nomination as a Fed governor in 2012 and his reappointment in 2014 senator Dean Heller a Nevada Republican who voted against mr. Powell both times said he was trying to get to yes conservatives are down with the status quo so what can we expect from a Powell Ledford from what he has said pretty much the same thing we got under Yellen and Bernanke we set when Trump announced the appointment Powell is the quintessential swamp creature in remarks he made before his confirmation hearing Powell defended the feds broad uses of crisis fighting powers as Reuters put it Powell positioned himself as an extension of the central bank policies of current chair Janet Yellen and her predecessor Ben Bernanke in a brief opening statement released by the Fed on Monday Powell who is currently a member of the feds Board of Governors endorsed the core ideas that have defined u.s.
central banking since the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 a willingness to move aggressively against the downturn and an insistence on flexibility and independence from political influence and setting policy in other words we can expect the Powell to blow up bubbles and drive malinvestment Powell is a typical central planner he believes a small cadre of people is smart enough to micromanage the world economy investment guru jim grant once called the central bank driven financial system the PHT standard as opposed to the gold standard that system features monetary oversight by former university economics faculty the PhD standard let's call it the express errs buy bonds with money they whistle into existence quantitative easing tinker with interest rates and give speeches about their intentions to buy bonds and tinker with interest rates forward guidance Powell's statement before the hearing proves him to be a dedicated disciple of the PhD standard we must retain the flexibility to adjust our policies in response to economic developments we must be prepared to respond decisively and with appropriate force to new and unexpected threats to our nation's financial stability and economic prosperity I will do everything in my power to achieve those goals while preserving the Federal Reserve's independent and nonpartisan status that is so vital to their pursuit so what does the status quo mean for us Greenspan gave us the dot-com bubble Bernanke gave us the housing bubble yelling has blown up all kinds of bubbles most significantly the bloated stock market bubble the question is what kind of bubble will Powell blow up when he slashes interest rates to zero or below and launches the next rounds of quantitative easing in response to the next economic downturn and we're way overdue for that what happens to the federal debt if the bond bubble pops earlier this month and then capital strategist bill Blaine warranted at the bond bubble is about to burst a crash in the bond market would likely take stocks down with it but there is another impact that is less obvious it could have a huge impact on the United States ability to finance its massive debt as Dan cursive DK analytics points out the federal government would have a difficult time even paying the interest on the debt in a normalized interest rate environment neither US federal debt nor virtually any OECD government debt could be easily carried with normalized interest rates which would readily be two to five percentage points higher than current short-term dominated and long-term based on 10 year old ECD government bonds with no or very nominal yields rates for the US government whose costs of funds is currently around 1.4 percent thanks to both massively lower QE enabled long-term rates and to a propensity to fund deficits and refinance debt with more shorter term funding which has been extremely cheap thanks to the or near slurred for nearly nine years every one percentage point higher average cost of funding twenty point five trillion dollars in debt would equate to a two hundred and five billion dollars higher annual interest expense government bond yields fluctuate wildly from the mean in fact they are typically at non mean levels yields tend to spike during and after periods of marked debt expansion wars and/or higher inflation when this reverses yields tend to sink far below the mean falling bond yields typically take the S&P 500 earnings yield down with it as the following chart shows according to Kurs a bond bust would trigger massively higher interest rates / massively higher ten-year government bond yields that is yields that would substantially exceed the four percent - five percent nominal historical yields associated with investment grade government bonds curse provides some historical context for some fairly recent historical perspective considered that 36 years ago America was still a two hundred and twenty seven billion dollars net creditor nation versus an eight point three trillion dollars net that are recently government debt to GDP was thirty one percent versus 103 percent recently one measure of published inflation was nine point four percent versus one point three percent recently and Volkers tough-love monetary policy coupled with high inflation expectations had 10-year Treasury yields reaching fifteen point three percent versus 2.4 percent recently he compares this to the environment today and reaches a disturbing conclusion fast forward to today given America's hugely diminished manufacturing and financial stature juxtaposed against a enormous external financing needs about five hundred billion dollars per annum be overall foreign dollar holdings that have been estimated as high as sixteen trillion dollars and see a concerted effort by leading countries to conduct trade and non used terms whether America can continue to indebt itself at nominal cost low yields isn't an academic discussion specifically Asian success at scaling up non dollar and or gold backed payment systems to compete with and eventually displace the all-important petro dollar standard used in the world's biggest and most important trade oil would have increasingly superfluous overseas dollars come home if a trick will became a gusher this would place enormous pressure on the bucks value trigger much higher domestic inflation and elevate the US government's and thus America's cost of capital substantially as the latter is based on a premium to the benchmark ten-year Treasury yield note that an increase in the overall cost of capital from say two percent - four percent from ten years - böck corporate bonds currently to six percent - nine percent respectively what raised the federal government's cost of funds by over eight hundred billion dollars per annum and the US economy is overall borrowing cost by about three dollars and twenty cents TRN pas assuming total US based debt of 68 trillion dollars a huge summer nearly 17 percent of the current nineteen point two trillion dollars u.s.
GDP a heavily indebted interest rate-sensitive nation non-starter globally assuming 217 dollars TRN in debt an increase in the average cost of capital of roughly four percentage points would increase financing costs by eight dollars and seventy cents d trillion equivalent to eleven point five percent of world GDP of seventy five point five trillion dollars this is a heavily indebted interest rate-sensitive world non-starter last time housing this time bonds over the last couple of months we've focused a lot of attention on the stock market bubble but some analysts say we should be watching the bond market bubble last summer former Fed chair Alan Greenspan issued an emphatic warning beware the bond bubble is about to burst and when it does it will take stock prices down with it last week the capital strategist bill Blaine issued a similar warning the truth has in bond markets and that's where I'm looking for the dam to break the Great Crash of 2018 is going to start in the deeper darker depths of the credit market Blaine noted that the People's Bank of China recently dropped 47 billion dollars into its financial system where bond yields have risen dramatically amid growing signs of wobble the game's afoot once more the result is global stocks bound upwards again suggest central banks have little to worry about in 2018 if markets get fractious just bung a load of money at them personally I'm not convinced how the talath monetary market distortion is a good thing markets have become like Pavlov's dog ring the easy money Bell and markets saliva to the upside with all of this easy money available companies have piled up debt the 2008 crisis was the result of consumer debt pumping up a housing bubble this time corporate debt is pumping up the bubble and the inflating asset is the stock market that's why blame is focused on bonds but I do think the next financial crisis is likely to be in corporate debt and it will be a credit market analogue to the consumer debt crisis of 2008 the high-yield market is a likely source as markets recovered banks started lending again and low rates forced investors out the credit risk curve to buy returns the funds used to buy nothing but AHS are now buying speculative single B names such as the demand for assets these companies have been able to lever up and refinance increase leverage and refinance further at ever faster rates it's been exacerbated by private equity fuelling returns through debt demand has increased exponentially borrowers have been able to slash covenants making it easier and simpler for over-indebted companies to raise more and more - where does it end when toys-r-us declared bankruptcy earlier this year everybody pointed to Amazon is a culprit lost in all the chatter about consumers moving to online retailers was the fact crushing debt pulled the giant toy seller under the company has piled up more than five billion dollars in debt toys are reportedly pays more than four hundred million dollars a year on debt service alone the story behind the Toys R Us bankruptcy gives us a glimpse at a fundamental problem with easy money created by central bank monetary policy the ability to borrow a lot of money at low interest rates fuels speculation malinvestment distorts the economy and inflates bubbles that eventually pop this is the story of Toys R Us an article in Forbes explains what happened in 2005 KKR and bain capital which included former presidential candidate Mitt Romney bought Toys R Us for about 6.6 billion dollars plus assuming just under 1 billion dollars of debt for a total valuation of 7.5 billion dollars but the private equity guys didn't buy the company with equity they only put in 1.3 billion dollars and used the company's assets to raise 5.3 billion dollars in additional debt making total debt a whopping 6.2 billion dollars total debt was now a remarkable 82.7% of total capital at the time of the deal interest rates on that debt were around 7.25% creating a cash outflow of 450 million dollars / year just to pay interest on the loans at the time toys-r-us was barely making a profit of 2% so the debt was double company net profits the Fed dropped interest rates in 2002 in response to the dot-com collapse rates were creeping back up in single quote 0-5 but they were still at low levels the Fed wanted people to borrow and spend to stimulate the economy they did equity guys would have found it much more difficult to swing this kind of deal on a normal interest rate environment this vividly illustrates how the central bankers feed the business cycle and the unfortunate side effects of their policies Blaine said we will see more toys artists moments repeated on a grand scale as central bank's try to normalize interest rates the rise of and fall of zombie companies that simply can't meet that payments is bound to Kanta JH not just the rest of the credit market but also stocks more immediately the realization that crisis is coming fuels very similar to June 2007 when the first mortgage backed funds in the US started to wobble the first few pebbles rolling down the hill before the landslide it explains why we are seeing the highly levered sector of the junk bond markets struggle and companies correlated to struggling highly levered consumers such as health and telecoms also in trouble basically very little is really fixed since the 2008 financial crisis 10 years later here we are with the next bubble about to burst corporate debt watch out dition himself as an extension of the bank policies of current chair Janet Yellen and her predecessor Ben Bernanke in a brief opening statement released by the Fed on Monday Powell who is currently a member of the feds Board of Governors endorsed the core ideas that have defined u.s.
central banking since the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009 a willingness to move aggressively against the downturn and an insistence on flexibility and independence from political influence and setting policy in other words we can expect the Powell to blow up bubbles and drive malinvestment Powell is a typical central planner he believes a small cadre of people is smart enough to micromanage the world economy investment guru jim grant once called the central bank driven financial system the PHT standard as opposed to the gold standard that system features monetary oversight by form leave us the housing bubble Yellen has blown up all kinds of bubbles most significantly the bloated stock market bubble the question is what kind of bubble will Powell blow up when he slashes interest rates to zero or below and launches the next rounds of quantitative easing in response to the next economic downturn and we're way overdue for that what happens to the federal debt if the bond bubble pops earlier this month and then capital strategist bill Blaine warranted that the bond bubble is about to burst a crash in the bond market would likely take stocks down with it but there is another impact that is less obvious it could have a huge impact on the United States ability to finance its massive debt as bankers of DK analytics points out the federal government would have a difficult time even paying the interest on the debt in a normalized interest rate environment neither you and University economics faculty the PhD standard let's call it the expresser spy bonds with money they whistle into existence quantitative easing tinker with interest rates and give speeches about their intentions to buy bonds and tinker with interest rates forward guidance Powell's statement before the hearing proves him to be a dedicated disciple of the PhD standard we must retain the flexibility to adjust our policies in response to economic developments we must be prepared to respond decisively and with appropriate force to new and unexpected threats to our nation's financial stability and economic prosperity I will do everything in my power to achieve those goals while preserving the Federal Reserve's independent and nonpartisan status that is so vital to their pursuit so what does the status quo mean for us Greenspan gave us the dot-com bubble Bernanke gave walking in their footsteps Powell will maintain status quo on Fed it looks like Trump's picked to chair the Federal Reserve plans to walk in the footsteps of his predecessors in other words we can expect the legacy of Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen to continue unbroken that means a continuation of interventionist monetary policy artificially low interest rates into the foreseeable future and plenty of quantitative easing when the time comes yes the new bus looks a lot like the old boss Jerome Powell testified before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday the New York Times described it as a relatively placid affair maintaining the status quo doesn't set off too many fireworks Democrats seem ok with a pic interestingly the people who were against Powell when he was an Obama appointee are okay with him now that he's a trump appointee some Democrats have indicated they might oppose the nomination but importantly mr.
Powell drew little opposition from conservative Republicans who opposed both his nomination as a Fed governor in 2012 and his reappointment in 2014 senator Dean Heller a Nevada Republican who voted against mr. Powell both times said he was trying to get to yes conservatives are down with the status quo so what can we expect from a power Ledford from what he has said pretty much the same thing we got under Yellen and Bernanke we said when Trump announced the appointment Powell is the cold essential swamp creature in remarks he made before his confirmation hearing Powell defended the feds broad uses of crisis fighting powers as Reuters put it Powell
Comments 0