저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2021년 3월 5일 금요일, 연준 인사 발언(Kashkari: 금리 상승은 실질금리가 아닌 인플레 기대 상승 때문, 정책 대응 불필요 / Bullard: 현재 완화 기조 유지, 채권시장 무질서 움직임 없음)을 근거로 금리-주가 역상관 관계가 깨지고 있다고 주장. 10년물 금리가 1.5~1.6% 수준으로 팬데믹 전과 유사해 주식시장에 큰 문제가 아니라고 봄. 다음 주 시장은 과평가 자산 매도, 저평가 자산 매수 방식으로 대응할 것이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
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we're going to talk about what the fed just said but take a look at this let's go ahead and just draw on this for a moment here this is really our pain began in the stock market right here february 19th was really the last day that we had some good it was a friday and then all of a sudden the stock market started selling off and in part it sold off because treasury yields started rising but this wasn't even that rough of a rise this slope right here where things really got nasty was when the slope or the acceleration of the rate of the tenure did this i mean look at that slope that is that is fast that is a rapid and so this is when we began having our sell-off we had a little bit of recovery on monday when bond yields were actually at a lower point but bond yields started rising again throughout this week and when federal reserve chairman jerome powell talked and spea spooked the market yesterday we got a big spike in bond yields here and the stock market rapidly sold off but i personally believe this relationship is going to begin to fall apart let me show you the relationship a little bit more clearly first just by overlaying the s p 500 and you can see the relationship gets weaker and weaker at least in my opinion you can see that so let's take a look here let's draw where the relationship makes sense so what do we see here right here in orange we see the chart having a spike and the s p 500 or the spy in this case which is the blue line plummets we see that plummet there it's really really evident then look at this i will erase this for a second let's go ahead and use a different color let's look at green look at this the bond yields oh there we go bond yields fall and what immediately happens while immediately like what happens right afterwards there you go the s p 500 goes back up right and we get this sort of like trading with okay when the bond yields go up the stock market goes down and this has kind of been training us to think okay all right if we want to know what the stock market's going to do just look at the uh the 10-year treasury yield in my opinion this is going to break this relationship will not last much longer and i think it's already started breaking today why do i think it started breaking today because take a look at this folks watch this this right here and we know what the market did today but the market was insane today okay the market opened up today it actually opened green but by eight i'm sorry that's california time by 11 a.m the market started plummeting so let's mark that for a second the market started plummeting right here at 11 a.m the market opened up at 6 30 which is actually right here but wait a minute this is when the 10-year treasury was at its highest point and this is when the 10-year treasury was at its lowest point which is very very odd especially since we rallied into the clothes so we had our most pain when bond yields were in the day at their lowest point then we started rallying into the clothes and we actually get bond yields going up into the clothes right so in my opinion the 10-year treasury yield as a relation to the stock market i think that's already starting to fall apart i don't think it's going to work very clearly again next week why did we have the big run-up because of that rate that acceleration was so fast but now we got it we're used to it okay all right the 10 years gonna go up over time that happens that's normal that doesn't mean the stock market has to keep selling off well what did the fed say today and this is interesting as well because it relates obviously to bonds so neil kashkari the minneapolis a federal reserve bank president said the following quote if we were seeing a real uptick in yields that would give me pause that would give me concern of the amount of accommodation we are providing to the economy and that the amount of accommodation we're providing is falling or it's reducing and that maybe he says quote that might warrant us considering a policy response they talk in tongue so in english he's saying look i see that the ten year went up but this isn't really like a big deal because look if the 10 years at 1.5 and inflation's at 1.5 percent we really have a real return of zero percent and so we're actually not even seeing a real uptick in treasury yields we're just seeing a quick uptick that's kind of what the fed is saying here they're like look we're not seeing any cause for concern here yeah sure all of a sudden it like it ticked up really fast i mean the five-year treasury bond ticked up so fast last week that it ticked up at its fastest rate in 10 years that shows you how quickly it ticked up and that was one of the things that really spawned this panic instead neil kashkari says and this is a great reuters piece here we are not seeing much movement in real yields but rather an increase in what bond investors are demanding for compensation to reflect rising inflation expectations again fancy tongue simplify this okay so bond yields accelerate up the fed's like okay well real yields are still low so why is the fed not doing anything well because the fed's saying well because real yields are still really low and remember real is what the yield is 1.5 minus inflation which if that's around 1.5 you're at zero so real rate of return is zero uh nominal would mean you're not considering inflation anyway so you've got neil kashkari going look dude this is no big deal like we're the fed and we're trying to get people to expect two percent inflation obviously in the course of our business of trying to get people to expect two and two percent inflation coming at some point bond investors are gonna go well damn everybody's gonna start inspect expecting two percent inflation coming i better start asking for more money on my bonds i better start asking for a bigger yield in my bonds like why would i take a bond at one point two percent if everybody's expecting two percent inflation well hell give me 1.6 otherwise i ain't buying that's kind of what's happening here and the fed is like uh everything's actually kind of going according to plan just because the stock market freaked out because bond yields went up a little too fast for you all little paper-handers that's not our problem this base i'm obviously heavily oversimplifying the federal reserve here but again when you listen to them they speak in like this foreign language it's bizarre uh let's see if they simplify their language at all all right kashkari said friday that a that the new framework is helping push inflation up and providing the kind of accommodation that we hoped it would yeah no still still foreign language but basically that is exactly what i just explained like what's happening is what the fed wanted to happen they want inflation expectations to go up to two percent the fed is basically the fed's basically taking credit for what's happening they're flipping the script here we are like stock market tanks and everybody's like where's the fed sorry thor came back and took his hammer uh i'll get that back later anyway so this is basically the fed responding like dude this is what we expected so no we're not gonna bail you out you paper handers anyway then we switched to a different president saint louis fed president james bullard in an interview on sirius xm radio he said quote it's not matching up right now that we need to be more dovish than we already are in other words again in plain english he's saying yo look we're already telling you the economy is indulgence and we're going to keep printing money and we're going to be at a you know zero percent rate for like until at least 2023 i mean we've told you that like 17 times and we think that we might even keep rates low until 2024 like we don't know how many more times and in different ways we can tell you that uh but uh just because y'all paper hand is uh sad the stock market is going down doesn't mean that we need to start printing more money that's pretty much what james ballard is saying and so when james was asked what about operation twist can't you just do operation twist and start buying longer-term bonds because if you start buying the 10-year or the 20-year or the 30-year bonds what's gonna happen you drive those yields down and you push yields down well that's gonna be good for the stock market right bullard goes dude folks the interest rate or the yield on the 10-year is 1.55 if you look at the six months before the pandemic that's pretty much consistent to what the yields were before the pandemic and those are still pretty dang low historically and the stock market did fine then again not our problem that there's a little bit of a hissy fit going on right now and quite frankly you gotta give it to him he's not wrong if i put up the five-year chart right here this is the five-year chart of the 10-year treasury yields we're you know right before the pandemic we were like 1.8 we had a period here of 1.5 to 1.6 in october of 2019 and august of 2019 we bounced around uh in november of 2019 we were like 1.7 uh right before the pandemic 1.78 and he's like dude 1.566 like the stock market was doing amazing over here the stock market was doing fine over here with the exception of the end of 2018 like right around here and this is where the fed's like okay okay okay we will stop raising rates and that kind of led to that you know stock market like okay but that's different right that's the federal reserve's discount rate and we don't want to over complicate things here the bottom line that we want to take away from mr bullard here is mr bullard is saying guys chill long term this is not a big deal 1.55 percent bollard goes on to say the following that he would be concerned by disorderly behavior in the treasury market something panicky would catch my attention but we're not at that point mr bullard was then also asked about the stimulus package and he said that he is skeptical that such a 1.9 trillion dollar package would even get enacted he thinks there's only a 50 chance of the stimulus package getting enacted now i'm at like 80 to 90 of it happening uh i'm maybe more bullish than obviously he is but let's stick to the fed right here and not stimulus so sticking to the fed we didn't hear from jay pal today he's probably you know half a fifth deep okay okay i shouldn't say that but uh when we listened to neil kashkari and we listened to mr bullard what do we get we get a reiteration that what's actually happening in the market is pretty much engineered by the fed maybe the fed is just retroactively taking credit like see we designed this like everything is fine but keep in mind the fed's job is not to pump the stock market even though it feels like that's exactly what the federal reserve has been doing since march that's not their problem they don't care if stocks go down or up they care if the monetary system start breaking if banks stop lending credit cards freeze up auto loans stop happening that freaks them out that is a danger we're not seeing that danger is what they're saying so they're saying we have we have no motivation right now to change anything that we're doing because what's happening is not a problem and now if we gen saggy circle back to the beginning of the video where i talk about we're already starting to see this fall apart of this correlation between bond yield up stocks down in my opinion it's entirely possible that next week it doesn't make sense anymore the charts don't inverse anymore and the yield's not going to matter that much anymore i think next week the stock market's going to be in this position of all right let's now assess the damage the hurricane happened the last two weeks let's assess the damage is something still overvalued sell it is something cheap let's buy it and we'll see how the market reacts next week so those are my updates for you from the federal reserve and on bonds hopefully this was helpful if you found it one you
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