The Stock Market Crash is Worsening... When will it End?

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S&P500과 성장주가 2021년 상승분을 반납하며 급락 중이며, 기관이 고평가 기술주에서 경기회복주로 자금을 옮기는 중이라고 주장. 연준의 은행 자본규제 완화나 1.9조 달러 부양책이 반등 촉매가 될 수 있으며, 이번 주가 최악일 수 있다고 봄. 본인은 최근 3일간 약 100만 달러를 주식에 추가 매수했다고 밝힘. 다만 방향 예측은 투기적이라고 스스로 단서를 달았음.

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※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. hey everyone me kevin here the s p 500 has eradicated all of its 2021 gains just like arc invest which is down over 25 from its peak unfortunately now the market is continuing to get battered futures are down the chinese stock market has opened down we have after hours not looking pretty we had a pretty dang big sell-off today and now we got 16 percent of a loss at superior super league gaming we got agora down six percent the backbone behind clubhouse we got sends down cciv down another 5.5 under 23 pinterest lemonade vroom neo tesla you name it tesla's sitting at 600 a share what's the market gonna open like tomorrow we have absolutely no idea but in this video we're gonna talk about will this crash keep going what is causing this madness and what do i think about it when do i think it's going to end what's it going to take let's talk so first let's give a shout out here to our boy jim cramer jim cramer on cnbc thinks that the market is flooded with investment opportunities he mentions spax he mentions big ipos coming like coinbase and roblox plus there are shareholder lock-up expirations at newly ipo and newly stacked merged companies that could potentially lead to a massive glut of stocks available on the market for purchase and as we know when supply goes up price goes down and this is why jim cramer believes that the market might have further to fall on top of what jim cramer said you also have the crypto craze do you pick bitcoin aetherium cordana do you pick all of them do you put a little bit into all of them do you put money into nfts do you put money into real estate there are literally so many freaking endless opportunities right now that it's not just what jim said but it's all of the opportunities combined right now that kind of start making us feel like oh crap we're kind of running out of money in fact i just ran a poll on twitter which if you don't follow me follow me on twitter you can follow me at real meat kevin and in the first 35 minutes of the poll 3 700 of you voted and 58 of you have said amar money six percent of you said that you're selling stocks and not buying so the most most of you are diamond handing this and 36 percent of you said you have money left over to invest so only about a third of you actually have money to invest right now now let me be clear i am aware that the vast majority of us following me certainly are probably a retail investors which kind of supports this narrative that yeah we're kind of running out of opportunities here because we have too many opportunities but not enough cash which is a problem that makes it hard for us to prop up the market by buying the dip so what then can turn this market around well in my opinion it's actually what's causing this market to fall and that is institutional investors i personally think institutional investors are doing what they deem to be safe bets right now i personally believe it's institutional investors the big hedge funds the big money managers that are trying to protect their clients and their pension funds and their whatever health insurance companies or whatever it is that they represent their municipalities or whatever and they're trying to protect their clients and they're saying you know tax overvalued tech is passe we're in a tech wreck right now let's uh invest your money into a diversified portfolio of the john deere and the home depot and let's throw some disney in as well how about some carnival cruise line they'll pay off their debt they'll be okay we're going to have a travel boom don't you want to go traveling after this pandemic where you've been locked up for over a year yeah we'll invest into those things because that's where it's at personally that's literally what i think is happening i think institutional money is literally flowing out of tech and energy and some of these specs and going directly into recovery although we're also seeing those stocks sell off a bit so sure while we might be seeing 15 declines in like attack and we see you know maybe modest declines or stability at disney um disney's still modestly declining we see that as well a lot of the money seems to be flowing over there some of the money is obviously getting caught up somewhere probably some of that money is getting caught up in shorts and puts which are actually in my opinion artificially accelerating this decline as hedge funds gonna hedge because we don't want our clients to leave because we don't want our clients to think we're just doing the kathy wood and buying the dip we want our clients to feel like they're protected by every complicated hedge option that exists so we're gonna short this market yes that is after all what funds do so what's the point well the point is i don't think retail investors are screwing the market right now this is not retail investors selling this is institutional investors seeing the start to a tiny transition and now they're like okay okay oh maybe rates going up inflation happening move away from the high value let's go away from tech sheep on over to recovery place cash shorts puts maybe some bonds maybe some of them are throwing money into bitcoin which could explain why bitcoin has actually been relatively stable through some of the madness here and that is relatively stable i know bitcoin is volatile but surprisingly it's been holding up relative to like tech stocks right personally that's what i think is happening and what's fascinating if this is true is i would not be shocked to see that very soon especially where these prices are heading very soon these institutional funds are all going to have moved over and then they're going to go um wait a minute tesla looks pretty damn cheap right now in fact kathy wood just put out a new bullish statement on tesla which she hasn't yet i'm projecting into the future which she plans to do soon she put out a new bullish research team on tesla and she's right tesla is actually a value play why would we buy these indebted companies in dying industries when we can buy the next frontier at now a cheaper price hey let's move back over and then slowly we get that rotation back we get people closing their short positions which have been going up at a lot of companies we get people selling off on their puts we get people then taking money these funds taking money throwing them and rotting at them rotating them right back into the tesla the pinterest the etsy the expi whatever possibly also consolidating other funds they have available the cash they held or bonds they bought who knows maybe bonds go back up and then they take the cash they invested in a bonds throw that right back into these stocks and we end up seeing a pretty instantaneous boom back and this boom back is exactly what i want to basically prevent buying after that is i believe simplifying my explanation here i believe we are going to see a big rotation back into tech and the future of america expi tesla apple google amazon these companies are the future of america the matter ports of the world the ccivs the genomics the trade desks the neos the open doors these are the future companies of america and money will flow back to these the problem is when when are those values going to or or those prices going to get to the point where the institutional investors say let's close our shorts and let's get back over at the into the tech play let's get back into that space when that happens probably won't it'll probably happen pretty fast so it won't take many institutions doing this it'll happen pretty fast when that happens i would expect the market to bounce back pretty dang quickly and this is why i've been driving so many of you nuts with all of my stock buy alerts because i am not selling this dip i am buying this dip i broke down my margin i broke down my entire strategy with all the course members today uh in the stocks and psychology and money group in fact many of you have been sending messages in the chat going hey talk to my cpa they confirmed i can write off your stock course so that really means instead of paying like 400 for your course i'm getting it for like 275 dollars some of you were saying which is really awesome because of the tax benefits obviously check with your cpa but yeah i mean check out the program link down below it's a 38 off coupon it does expire in less than two weeks which means the current uh price will go away so do check that out that coupon does expire it's linked down below but the big question now is when will this rotation happen what catalysts are going to lead this rotation to actually happen and take place let's talk about that the first potential big catalyst that can push everybody right back into tech is understanding what's going on at the fed first of all i saw multiple videos today from multiple different creators and i'm not trying to bag on everybody anybody anybody maybe i just have a different perspective but there are multiple people saying that and even cnbc cnbc oh my god cnbc had an article that's like the market is just spooked because jerome powell said inflation is coming no wrong that is not what jerome powell said jerome powell said inflation is coming temporarily but it will not stay here if you want a further explanation on what's going on at the fed please type this into youtube write this down on your notes or phone right now to look this up afterwards okay you're gonna or open up a new tab meet kevin why the fed just crashed the market you need to watch that after this but first listen to these other catalysts okay i'll remind you again on this so watch that for what's actually going on it's very interesting you gotta understand that when this expectation of inflation come coming ends and when the suits start realizing wait a minute maybe inflation isn't coming then our favorite stocks go right back to the moon that is one of the big catalysts however that's going to take a while it's probably going to take in my opinion three to six months for the suits to realize inflation isn't coming the way they expect that means for the next three to six months they could be right with this fear that inflation is coming which is bad that means we need an a sooner catalyst okay well what's another catalyst well more pain happens the bond market continues to sell off leading yields to go up and maybe finally the fed does what we were expecting the fed to do today and they swoop in and extend bank capital reserve exemptions now this is a fancy way of basically saying the fed waves their magic wand lets banks have or spend more of their money on whatever they want like bonds or purchases basically they need to keep less sitting around in cash doing nothing if the fed says you're good to do that for longer another six months or a year then banks could in theory go by bonds and maybe those yields will come down as bond prices go up and the market will be happy again so in other words bottom line of this like last 30 seconds the fed could literally wave a magic wand not print more money and potentially solve this the velocity of this bond market freaking out and i think we'll have a rotation like that i think we will have a very fast rotation waiting for the inflation like inflation not to come is going to be very painful and it's going to take a while and bitcoin could go to the moon between now and then uh this is why it's probably a good idea to own at least some bitcoin which is one of the reasons i have a bitcoin over at blockfi where you can get up to 250 for free if you sign up and purchase bitcoin and get interest on your bitcoin which is great they're paying like six percent on your bitcoin right now uh and you can go to medcavin.com bf block five kevin.com bf to sign up for an account over at blockfi but anyway that is going to be the quick catalyst so slow catalyst inflation doesn't end up coming the way we expect and dronepal is right that's the slow catalyst that doesn't have to be the right one but that's the slow one if that happens the quick catalyst is the fed going bloom hey bank go ahead spend money and i think the market will react very positively today and i think that's why we had a double dip crash today because that did not happen the market was hoping that that would happen but it didn't happen and so that's why the market started selling off more when it became abundantly clear that the fed wasn't going to do this watch that video meet kevin why the fed crashed the market today much more detailed explanation so the fed could act sooner that would help but if the fed doesn't act what else do we have well we have tomorrow's job report but honestly that's probably going to fall flat okay cool so the unemployment rate goes down but what is the unemployment rate signal to old-school institutional investors well old-school institutional investors go well when the unemployment rate goes down uh that means uh jobs become more competitive and uh the price of labor goes up which means inflation goes up so uh thank you for reiterating my argument inflation's going to go up that is entirely possible if the unemployment rate goes down which we expect it will then we could see more pain because people are like that's it inflation is coming now this hasn't actually been true and this is why this is also complicated because old school economics says unemployment rate down inflation up well the last 10 years unemployment rate be falling and inflation be falling it's literally everything is turned topsy-turvy everything is freaking nuts and confusing and that's why there's so much happening in the market right now because nobody has a clear picture or understanding of what the hd double hockey sticks is going on with the exception of me i'm just kidding i'm probably the last person that has any clue as to what's going on because here i am again again wearing the tree of life druid shirt which you can barely see from world of warcraft so you know take note of who you're taking advice from here so convincing the market that inflation is not coming slow play bad not a good catalyst okay the fed waiving their one and changing liquidity requirements good good catalyst the unemployment rate going down probably a bad or neutral catalyst like it's not going to help us this means this dip could continue how long historically these dips last six weeks we started this back on february 19th that means february 19th through the end of march could potentially be a nasty nasty nasty period of time to invest a lot of pain a lot of loss a lot of paper handlers selling because they can't take it anymore or stop losses getting triggered because they went in as diamond handers but they were secretly paper handers i'm not trying to offend anybody with stop losses okay stop losses totally have their purpose i'm getting a little extreme here but what happens between february 19th and the end of march the stimulus package is it possible that when the 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package passes which i believe has a a very high likelihood of actually occurring is it possible that that stimulus package props the market back up potentially because right now i believe the market is pricing in 1.9 trillion dollars of money printing because there's already been so much money printing like the inflation fear is already there i don't think another 1.9 trillion dollars at this point is going to make people people think that oh inflation's going to be 10x what it was before i don't think that is going into it like through institutional investors mindsets i think they're like we've already printed so much we're going to see inflation we're going to see with or without this 1.9 trillion package sure the 1.9 trillion will make things even worse for that inflation argument but it's not going to make that much of a difference in other words i think institutional investors are pricing and inflation happening but we're not actually anymore pricing in the benefits of a 1.9 trillion dollar package less unemployment that is more people potentially with jobs because people have money to spend all of this extra spending in the economy all of this new inflow of mortgage forbearance money which could go into the stock market stimulus checks which could go into the stock market unemployment checks which could go into the stock market longer now i'm not suggesting that that's healthy because really we're just transferring money from the government to people and then people are throwing it back in the stock market which is kind of artificial it's basically jerome powell funneling money directly into the stock market i'm not saying that that is healthy uh but that could be a short-term catalyst at least to get us out of this rut the stimulus package is expected to pass march 14th that means we literally potentially have 10 days to go of pain now that doesn't mean that the bottom of the market is in 10 days see when we have these recessionary times markets can actually go down and then we have like a monday happen where the market goes up like 10 15 percent and it goes down again and it goes up again right i just think that this volatility period is going to stay probably for at least the next 10 days until this stimulus package which keeps getting delayed because now they're reading the whole bill because they're freaking morons anyway longer this gets delayed the longer we might have to wait but there is one last catalyst and this one's a little softer but it it is it works in mysterious ways this one and it's the weekend catalyst okay the weekend catalyst says that after a sell-off week institutional investors go through and they're like oh look at all those cheap deals remember what i mentioned at the beginning of these catalysts that there's the potential of institutional investors going time to move over things are cheap tests are under 600 that's cheap let's go boys it is possible that that could happen on monday just like what we saw this monday now will that be followed by more of a crash who knows who knows so bottom line what the hell am i doing about all of this and what do i think is actually going to happen okay so this is where we're going now is magic 8 ball random dude on the internet theorizing about stuff he has very little clue about because i have absolutely no idea what is going to happen with any form of a guarantee so what i'm about to say is totally just entertainment and speculation anyway now that you're still here let me give it to you i personally think that this is the worst that this right here is potentially the worst week of this crisis we have been selling off since february 19th we are now about halfway through that six-week cycle i do think and by this is the worst i am also already incorporating friday's pricing so i think we could have some blood friday it would not shock me though for us to open dirty and nasty and to rally into the close tomorrow complete speculation complete speculation even if we don't i think next week once that weekend effects effect goes into play we're gonna see some recovery in the stock market three four percent maybe it'll start slowly maybe it'll come quickly like what we saw on monday where all of a sudden it's like wow we were bottom and boom we're up 10 15 again right entirely possible not sure not sure about that but i do think that this week could go down as the worst and that's because next week we're getting closer to that stimulus package or fedrome chair a fed chair jerome powell making a decision on those liquidity reserves which is due before the end of the month so we have some serious catalysts here and because we have these catalysts around stimulus and j pal it's very likely in my opinion that these institutional investors are going to realize we have these catalysts coming the weekend catalyst comes into a into play and potentially the institutional investors go um this is some sweet opportunities over there let's go shopping before the stimmy comes it could be totally wrong we could literally just go straight off a cliff for the next you know who knows it could be two months i have no idea if these inflation expectations keep going up right again don't sue me bro if you lose money on this is not my problem but what am i doing i'm putting my money where my mouth is and in the last three days i've put over one million dollars into the stock market yes i'm literally going into more margin to buy right now because i believe what i'm telling you you don't have to believe me call me crazy leave nasty comments but i don't really believe that bond yields going to 1.55 is such a freaking catalyst that we're gonna see another march 2020 are you kidding me march 2020 i went to a grocery store in a hazmat suit because nobody knew what the heck we were up against that was peak fear this is a joke compared to that this is a joke compared to 2008 and that's why jerome powell isn't acting and at some point the institutional investors will realize this sell-off is a complete joke don't talk to me about valuations save that for the next video or my next videos when i start doing valuation videos on tesla airbnb square chew me out in those videos or do whatever you want i don't care all i ask is uh on folks see you tomorrow you