저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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달러 약세와 연준·재정 우려로 금 강세 지속을 전망. 금은 연말 6,000 이상, 2분기 말 전 고점 돌파 가능성. 은은 신고가 갱신 전망(중기). 미 국채는 지속 불가능해 매도 압력과 금리 상승 전망, 결국 인플레이션 선택 전망. 비트코인은 폰지식 버블로 하락 및 붕괴 전망, 매도 권고. 주식시장은 실질 기준 하락 리스크 강조.
다듬은 글
Pacific Asset Management to talk about what's happening in the world and how money is likely to move henceforth. Peter, great to have you on the show. Thank you for joining us. Let me start off with the entire thing with regard to the current gold uh rally which you've been seeing. Uh you've been bullish on gold for quite some time now.
How do you see the rally panning out from here, barring of course that intermittent volatility that keeps cropping up? Well, you know, I think gold's going to continue to move higher, uh especially now that the US dollar is moving lower against its fiat counterparts. In fact, I expect uh pronounced US dollar weakness throughout the rest of this year and for many years to come.
So, all of that is going to drive more money out of US dollars and US financial assets like Treasuries into gold and other non-US dollar denominated investments. Right. Uh so, Peter, it's important to analyze. How is it that you see the strength of dollar because you've spoken about the fact that uh you're going to see a dollar weaken this year.
What would be the factors that will push the dollar lower according to you? Well, I think it's going to be the continued loss of confidence in the fiscal uh responsibility of the US government and the independence of the Fed. I think you're going to see ever-increasing uh US federal deficits monetized by the central bank.
So, the supply of dollars is going to increase substantially. In the meantime, you know, I think uh the world wants to move away from the dollar. The US has weaponized the dollar. Um you know, first with Biden and now with Trump, I think the world is not uh looking kindly at the rhetoric and the tariffs which are making it more difficult to trade with the United States.
I think the world would be be better off trading a lot less with the United States. Uh and so I think there should be more trade outside the United States and you know, countries that are major exporters should consume more of what they produce rather than subsidize American consumers so that that we could buy it.
Uh so I think you're going to see a major shift out of dollars. I think foreign central banks will continue to move reserves to gold and out of dollars. I think global investors will keep pulling money out of US financial markets. And as the dollar goes down, I think that's going to create an economic boom outside the United States.
A lot of dollar denominated debt is going to be basically wiped out. And consumers outside the United States are going to find that they have a lot more purchasing power. So I think you're going to see, you know, higher living standards abroad and lower living standards in the US. Peter, how do you see or how do you attribute the diversification of central bank reserves?
We've seen a lot of central banks now adding gold to the reserves and for many gold reserves are more than US treasuries at this point in time. Yeah, well, in the past foreign central banks have accumulated dollars. I think that was a mistake. It benefited the United States, but it perpetuated these massive deficits in the United States where the US became dependent on the rest of the world.
Uh the US needs the world to produce the goods that it can't and the loan of the money that it doesn't save. And you know, this was a big subsidy that the US enjoyed, but it was a burden on the global economy. And I think the world is tired of shouldering that burden, especially since the world is being lectured by Donald Trump.
And uh so, you know, I think it's going to be a healthy development to move away from the US dollar as the reserve currency. Um it's going to be very disruptive initially, uh but I think it's going to be a positive development for the world. In the long, long run, it will be positive for the US, but in the short run, it's a huge negative.
Right. And Peter, as as the dollar relevance comes down, do you see uh uh any other currency that will likely take its place? Uh uh can the dollar get replaced? No, no. There's not going to be a new currency to replace the dollar. I think the dollar is going to be replaced by gold. So, I think gold is going to serve the role that the dollar had been serving as both a uh reserve asset for central banks and as settlement for bilateral trade.
I think gold is going to play an increasingly important role in the global monetary system the way it was prior to uh the US dollar supplanting it. Right. Uh Peter, another commodity which has been running uh which has also seen massive highs is silver. What is your view on silver and how do you see this massive run up uh coming in uh given the fact that, you know, many believe that there isn't much of a physical silver available in the market.
Yeah, you know, silver prices obviously were too low for too long. Gold rose really from 2,000 to 4,000 without much of an increase in the silver price at all. Then silver finally caught up and probably got ahead of itself when it shot up to 121. It then pulled back below 70. And right now it's about $80 an ounce.
Uh I expect silver prices to trend higher from here. But it may take uh several months before we get back above uh the 120 level. But we're going to go go above that level and ultimately much higher. Peter, how do you see the pricing outlook for gold and silver for 2026? And do you see both the commodities hitting a new high in this year?
Yeah, but I you know, gold got almost to 5600 before pulling back. I think that it will end the year above 6,000. We'll see how much higher, but uh I'm very confident that the high that we set earlier in January will be taken out probably before the end of the second quarter. And what about silver? Yeah, I mean silver's going to get make a new high, but obviously it's further away from its high.
It's 50%. It would need a 50% move to get back to its high. Uh gold only needs a 10% move. So, much easier for gold. But you know, silver is very volatile. Uh so, it's hard to say, but I do believe that silver will make a new record high may you know, maybe by uh you know, the end of the Q2 or in you know, sometime in the third quarter of this year.
And and Peter, I wonder how you look at US Fed policy given that you you have a president who is pushing for lower interest rates at a time when inflation is likely to inch upwards directionally. What's the policy stance in your opinion? Yeah, I think we have horrible fiscal policy in the United States and and horrible monetary policy, which is going to get worse.
Uh so, you know, that's why gold is trading above 5,000. That's why the dollar, you know, recently hit an all-time record low against the Swiss franc, and why it's continuing to fall now against a basket of other fiat currencies. It's because of the the the monetary and fiscal policy that we have been pursuing in the past, and that we continue to recklessly pursue in the present.
Mhm. And Peter, how do you see rising US debt? Is that going to be sustainable for the US going forward? No, it's not sustainable. It hasn't been sustainable for a while. Uh it's completely unsustainable. Uh you know, that's why people should be selling US Treasuries. That's why, you know, China just advised banks to sell Treasuries.
I think Japan is going to be a major seller of Treasuries. I think the whole world's going to be selling Treasuries because the debt is unsustainable. It can't be repaid. It can't even be serviced. Uh so, it's going to be either default or inflation. And obviously, politically expedient a choice is inflation, and that's the direction that we're headed.
And it's pretty obvious. So, our creditors want to get out. They don't want to watch the value of their US dollar holdings inflated uh away. Uh it's better to just sell now and move the money into something else. Right. And do you see interest rates going up given that yield is still holding up above 4.2, and you have pressure coming in from many countries selling Treasuries as well?
Yeah, I think there's going to be a lot of upward pressure on Treasury yields from global selling uh amidst a a a of supply. We have record deficits that we need to fund. We also have a record amount of debt that matures over the course of the year. And the government needs to find new buyers for the maturing debt, and they're going to be scarce.
So, I think the Federal Reserve is going to be coming back with uh more quantitative easing to buy bonds that the private sector can't absorb and doesn't want. Because the alternative would be a huge spike in interest rates, which the administration clearly uh it does not want because we can't afford it.
So, we're going to get massive inflation instead. Right. Peter, but how do you look at the tariff war initiated by the US and the repercussions of it all? Yeah, well, you know, the weapon is aimed at Americans and and and it's Americans who are going to bear the burden of these tariffs. Ultimately, they're taxes on consumption in the US.
They will raise the price of whatever we import and a lot of things that we don't import. I think it's more of a of a annoyance or a nuisance for emerging markets because it's disruptive to their you know business. They now need to adjust to the US being a smaller market. So, countries are going to export fewer goods into the American market because of the higher prices.
Americans will still buy foreign goods. They just won't buy as much because they're going to be more expensive. But, in the meantime, um businesses, companies in other countries need to reorient their their sales channels. They have to find consumers in other countries who are not uh being uh targeted by tariffs where their goods may be more affordable and they need to look more towards domestic customers.
And I think that will be a lot easier with the weakening dollar because as the dollar goes down then customers outside the US will now be wealthier and will be better positioned to buy the goods that Americans can no longer afford. Peter, you've been bearish on the Bitcoin and we've seen Bitcoin you know correcting in the last few months.
Where do you see Bitcoin going in from here on? Do you see some kind of a recovery on Bitcoin? Yeah, you know, I've always thought Bitcoin was more of a Ponzi scheme or pyramid than a legitimate you know disruptive technology or an alternative to the US dollar or digital gold. I mean, I never bought into that hype.
And I think last year pretty much exposed the fraud that Bitcoin is digital gold. Gold had its best year since 1979 and Bitcoin was down and gold's having another great year and Bitcoin's getting clobbered. So, I think the air is coming out of the Bitcoin bubble and that's going to you know, do more harm to the US economy because we've invested more in crypto than any other country.
Uh Americans are more exposed to Bitcoin and crypto than any other country and I think this is going to be very problematic for the US economy. It's going to lead to uh you know, a loss of paper wealth. It's going to lead to a lot of layoffs in the crypto sector. So, you know, it's a net negative uh for for the US.
Uh so, you know, if anybody is listening to this and you still own Bitcoin you can can get better than $68,000 for your Bitcoin, I would suggest that you sell now while you can, while there's still people dumb enough to buy. And if you really want gold, buy the real thing. Uh $5,000 gold may seem expensive compared to where it was, but I think it's very cheap compared to where it's going.
So, do you see a systemic risk because of a Bitcoin meltdown on the banking or the financial system? Yeah, you know, only in the short run. I think that was part of the reason that we saw the big drop in silver was a lot of margin related selling due to losses probably predominantly in crypto and Bitcoin, but also to some extent silver if people came kind of late to the party relative to where where we were.
But yeah, I don't see any long-term disruption of other assets from you know, the collapse of the the crypto market, but to the extent that there are lenders involved, if banks and other companies have loaned money against crypto collateral, yes, I think that they're going to suffer losses in their loans because I believe ultimately that a lot of the collateral will be liquidated at prices that don't cover the the value of the loans that have been made.
That and that was always the risk of lending against crypto and Bitcoin. It's not very good collateral because of the lack of depth of the market and how quickly the prices could collapse. I don't even think we've seen a crash yet, a real crash in Bitcoin. I think it's coming, but it's going to be you know, be it's going to start at a much lower level.
So, hard to say, maybe once Bitcoin goes below 50,000, it'll crash right to 20,000. We'll see, you know. Hm. Peter, talk to us if you believe that there is a systemic risk because of Bitcoin going forward, uh especially for the financial system. Now, I don't think that by itself Bitcoin is going to take down the the financial system, but you know, if we also get a bursting of the AI bubble, which is bigger, you know, dollar-wise than the crypto bubble, if what happens in Bitcoin uh is just uh reflective of a broader, uh you know, move out of risk assets, which could be the case, and I don't think it's so much that it goes from Bitcoin to the tech stocks and the Nasdaq.
It might be that, you know, air is coming out of all these bubbles. It's just that uh crypto is more vulnerable because it's left got less substance. It's more of a complete complete bubble. At least there's some viability to the AI story, even if the stocks themselves may be overpriced, and if a lot of the companies may have over-invested in in in building out the technology, there's something there.
When it comes to Bitcoin, there's nothing there, and most of crypto, it's all pure pure hype. But, we could see um you know, a broader decline in risk assets that includes the stock market and, you know, the US bond market, uh and and that would be very problematic. That There's a lot of systemic risk there to the entire the entire system melting down, but I think in isolation, if it's just crypto, uh then then that's not the case.
It It's going to be very problematic for the people in crypto, uh and I think it is enough to tip the US into recession, if it's not already there, but I don't think it's enough to create you know, a real financial crisis. That's coming anyway cuz I think we're going to get a US dollar crisis, which is going to be even worse and a sovereign debt crisis, but that's not because of a Bitcoin.
Right. Peter, lastly you spoke about AI that valuations are rich and some argue that there is an AI bubble as well. But what stocks you know, what stocks continue to hold up and rise up? Do you think a correction is overdue? Uh in which case what will happen to the overall equity market then? Well, I you know, we just hit a record high, right?
The Dow got over 50,000, which is not a record in any real sense because that's 10 oz of gold. 10 oz of gold is not, you know, a high price. The Dow was worth more than 40 oz of gold 27 years ago. So, that's a 75% decline. This century is it's not very good. So, it's mostly inflation that is creating the illusion that the US stock market is going up even as in real terms it's it's going down.
But I think US stocks are ripe for a sell-off, but the dollar is even more ripe. And so if the dollar collapses, US stock prices might not go down in dollar terms, but I think the pace of the decline in real terms will accelerate. So, you can see the market go from 10 oz of gold to 5 oz of gold in a relatively short period of time, just you know, a couple two, three years.
And so that's, you know, that's a 50% decline from here in in in terms of gold. Right. Uh Peter, such a pleasure having you today on ET Now. Thanks for your insights. Okay.
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