저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 지금은 인내와 선별이 핵심이며, 지수는 바닥을 다졌지만 새 고점은 당분간 어렵다는 관점. [투자 철학] 시장에는 트레이더와 투자자가 있으며, 뉴스에 반응하는 트레이더와 달리 투자자는 실적만 본다. 뉴스와 헤드라인은 점수판이 아니며, 마라톤처럼 긴 호흡으로 노이즈를 차단해야 한다. 인내가 가장 중요하고, 인내가 없으면 시장에서 탈락한다. [종목 선별 기준 SMILE] S(작은 규모) 섹터 내 작은 기업, M(15~20년 경력의 깨끗한 경영진), L(큰 야망), E(매우 큰 시장 잠재력)을 충족하는 기업을 선호한다. 성장 섹터(선라이즈)에 투자하고 사양 섹터는 피한다. 과거 손실 기업이라도 현금이 충분하고 섹터가 바뀌는 변곡점이면 투자한다. 좋은 실적을 냈다가 부진해진 기업은 레이더에 두고 턴어라운드 때까지 5~10년도 기다린다. [시장 전망] 2025년 큰 수익 이후 현재는 세금과 조정을 치르는 시기이며, 2026년은 조정(횡보) 국면이 될 가능성이 크다. 지수는 바닥을 찍었다고 보지만 새 고점을 빠르게 갈 것 같지는 않다. 중소형주는 크게 훼손됐다. 2008년 이후 2009~2014년 지수 횡보 구간에도 중소형주 개별 종목은 100배 상승한 사례가 있어, 지수가 횡보해도 기회는 있다고 본다. 지금 위기는 이미 왔고(2021~24년 과열의 조정), 이 시장이 추가로 크게 폭락할 것 같지는 않다고 본다. [유망 섹터] 인프라: 인도 GDP 10조 달러 목표에 필수적이며, 주요 인프라 주식은 고점 대비 2/3 하락해 기회가 있다고 본다. 금속: 조정 중이며 향후 10년 기대. 관광: 정부 중점 분야이며 일자리 창출 측면에서 긍정적. 전력·물 관련 중소형 EPC 기업: AI·데이터센터 수요로 전력 수요 급증 예상. 병원: 젊은 인구와 고령화로 수요 지속 예상되나 밸류에이션이 비싸 조정 시 매수 대기. [대형주 및 기타] L&T 같은 대형주보다 중소형 틈새 기업을 선호한다. 공기업 은행(PSU 은행)은 PER 5~7배, 배당 3~4%로 저평가지만 대중의 관심이 낮다고 지적. 중국: ETF를 보유 중이며 50~70% 상승했으나 추가 매수는 하지 않음. 중국에 긍정적이다. [리스크·조건] 좋은 종목을 적정 가격에 잡는 과정은 어렵고 지속적인 작업이다. 적절한 기회가 없으면 현금(유동성 펀드)을 보유하고 기다린다. IT 섹터는 최근 15년간 수익이 부진했다는 점을 언급. [출연자 전망 요약] 2026년은 조정 국면, 지수 새 고점은 당분간 어렵지만 개별 종목 기회는 존재. 현재 대중 투자자들은 이 조정을 겪으며 교훈을 얻을 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
He's an eminent private investor. You've seen him so often on ET now. Huge round of applause for Mr. Kadia for his fireside chat with Aisha. Over to you Aisha. Ladies and gentlemen, a huge round of applause please for Vijayia. Um, you know, we were debating about what to talk to him about and we've talked so much about gold, silver, news flow, war, Trump, and we thought we'll ask you how is it that you tune off from all that noise and how do you invest and make money in this market?
No. Take my mic. I'll get Yeah, it's okay. No, it's okay. Yeah. Yeah. So, it's [clears throat] very simple. Uh Aisha, as you know, uh in the in the stock market, there are two kind of animals you can call it. One is like trader and one is like investor. So all these noise which what you are talking about this is only for the traders and all.
So for investors all these news actually does not matter for them. The only thing which matters is earnings and earning does not come on everyday basis. So every day we are we are you know uh you you have to face or you have to uh you you get all kinds of news on a daily basis. So if you will uh keep on reacting on every news then ultimately you will end up holding nothing in this market.
And it is it is applicable at all times at any given time. So this is what I think one has to understand one has to evaluate oneself whether I am in this market as an investor or I am in this market as a trader. So if you ask me that I am 100% there is no doubt I am here in this market for this trading and all.
So for me all these news all these headlines uh they don't matter at all. So for me it is like something like a scoreboard or for me again it is like a I'm a marathoner. So I'm running a say 42 kilometer of uh run. So for me it does not matter that one at 1 kilometer where am I after 5 km where am I?
As long as I am running as long as I'm continuing my uh thing I am okay with this. So that is why the biggest thing is to cut off all this noise. M but Vijay you always said key uh markets reward patience it's difficult to be patient in this kind of a market now Sunday go Tuesday so that is why is it difficult to make money also so because you have to you have to win over yourself if you are not patient enough then any given time you will be out of this market so this is what you have to learn all these are the quality of a good investors that you need need to keep uh knowledge courage and patience and the patience is a very important thing to ultimately to win in this market.
So if you if you don't have patience that means you are out of the race. So enjoy. So Sunday morning when we were chatting with you you were singing Tuhi from Bombay for the finance minister after the SDT hike what song did you sing? So she punished me for that because why did you sing the song? So I got this punishment.
So I got the punishment. So that is all right. Okay. So if I I want to ask you if markets were a WhatsApp group, everything happens on WhatsApp groups nowadays. What messages would Vijadia mute immediately investors? Oh, the biggest problem in this market is micro level. people are talking in percent terms.
You know, Right. So, you've been, you know, known for spotting very long-term stories and very early. What is your filter before seeking sector company or promoter? So as I know that I I simply apply one formula which I the acronomy is smile. Sm I L E. So S stands for small in size and MI stands for medium in experience and L stands for large in aspiration and E stands for extra large market potential.
So usually I like to invest in a company which is the smallest or maybe the small company in its in its sector not necessary obviously I do invest in a small cap and midcaps only. So but it has to be the small company in that sector but management should be having a clean track record and uh should be having 15 20 years of experience so that it uh they have seen all the ups and downs in this market up and downs in the economy related to their companies that they have gone through all those uh phases of life and then L stands for large in aspiration the management should be very ambitious if they don't have the fire in the belly then obviously uh 5,000 0 cr company cannot become 50,000 cr company.
So that large in aspiration is very important and besides all very important is extra large market potential. So the market size of the company should be so big that the company always remains small. So know so that is what all these things put together I identify company and it's obviously bottom bottoms up approach.
So this is what I'm doing for myself and luckily it has done reasonably well. So I'm still I don't want to change this. But Vijay it's um it's a difficult task takes a lot of research. I'm sure you must be having some filters at your end company. Yes. But how is it that you see key you know it has managed to tick all the boxes.
There must be some screener some filter earnings. What valuation is the stock available on? So I have uh earlier I have bought uh few companies uh when I bought that time they were actually uh they were losing money but they had cash in their books like the network just a just a reference for purpose we are talking about.
So the market cap was around uh maybe say uh 400 cr or something and all if I remember correctly and they have sub 200 cr in the books and uh so uh but the sector has completely changed. So as there is a quote of mine which is like that always remain invested in a or invest in a sunrise sector at any cost and stay out of a sunset industry at any cost sunset sector at any cost.
So I am always looking for the sector which is uh futuristic uh sectors. Maybe today the time has not come or maybe it is at inflection points. Maybe after 3 months or after 6 months if the overall sector will do well then that company should have that balance sheet that uh so it should be at that particular point.
So this is what I have done in the past. So what I see that the health should be good and another one more formula I'm applying in this market is this. I always I keep uh if any uh I will give you in the reference of an athlete. Suppose an if an athlete has created a track record or suppose marathon he has done a marathon he or she has done a marathon at particular time or whatever is but currently the uh athlete is out of the form.
So I put that athlete or put that story on my radar and I wait for the time to turn around. So when that company is at inflection point then I I just think that once if it has set up a set a track record maybe next time it will also do well. So I wait for that inflection point sometime I have to wait for 5 years also 10 years also.
So that is all like that is my business and when I find that now this company has completely turnaround and sector is also uh growing so then whatever money I have at that point of time I invest in that company. So this is what I had been doing. patience and more patience. Yeah. Yeah. Patience. Yes.
Okay. Since you did talk about smile and I want to talk about the small cap sector right now. You know, if you look at individual portfolios, they've been hard hit especially small cap investors. Some people are not even opening their portfolio balance sheet right now to see stocks around 80 100 odd percent.
You think 2026 that recovery will kick in with small caps? No, I don't think I personally I feel that uh now things are going this 25 26 similar to 25 was we made a lot of money between 21 and 24 let me tell you right everyone did everyone we means everyone of course you also including you so we of course we made lot of money
mutual fund returns yes they were very good so and stocks multiplied three times four times 50 time 20 times 50 times you know now we paying the toll for that. We are paying the tax for that once you pay to income tax madam and then again you are paying to the market. So now 25 was the reality you know market shoulders reality.
So this is what 25 shoulders 26 I think I'm I think that is going to be a year of consolidations but in my personal view I think the market has met the bottom if you uh index wise if we say or even smaller and midcaps they have been beaten down so badly. So I don't think largely I think market has made its bottom and at the same time I have this view that this market is not going to show new high also in a hurry.
So this market should be in a consolidation phase and second thing I think even in in this kind of market you will get ample of opportunity. Why I'm telling you because I remember in 2008 after this Leman business financial crisis happened market were sideways between 2009 and 2014 index wise market did not index did not show new high I think before 14 something if I remember correctly but during that time also there were so many midcaps even luckily my three uh stocks went up 100 times between 2008 and after 2008 crisis This is between 2009 and 2014 they went up by 100 times.
So that gave me this uh you know uh cures and this is what the same formula you applying now also. Maybe this index wise this market will consolidate but you will you will certainly get some opportunities in this market which is going to give you a very handsome return. But the idea is this to ident identify the same stock at right stock at right time.
That is what our homework uh should be uh of that level. So basically you're saying wait for another COVID or 2008 like crisis. No the crisis has already come. No this is the crisis only. No crisis we have seen you see in 10 years only you will see one crisis only. No not expect this. No not at all.
I don't want any crisis either. Yeah. Yeah. So that crisis we have seen now we are seeing the correction of that that uh exuberance exuberance which happened between 2021 and 24. So maybe after 20 in 26 we will find some level playing field kind of things will happen in this market. I don't think this market is going to crash further from here this is what I feel as of now.
So where to hunt then? Where to hunt? because there are a lot of pockets which are looking cheap but there are lots which haven't fallen at all also so that is why I tell you this is not an easy process as I said that you have to be you have to identify the right script should be available at right price so that is not easy easy thing that is an ongoing process and world has become also dynamic like you were talking about this IT sectors and all I was seeing that if I remember uh correctly in last 15 years vo has not given you any any kind of return.
So this is was happening to it then and it is having a large market share in uh in our market cap cap in force all these IT companies are having a major share. So and they are not performing that way. So this is it's not a difficult it's it's not a so easy thing it's a difficult thing but uh you have to everything is difficult in life you know.
Yeah you make it easy with songs. No depend. Yeah, I'm trying to start to to current state patience to describe your state of mind right now. What is that song? Inactivity is also an activity not necessary that you have every day you have to start. Huh. So that's what I'm saying. It not necessary that every time you have to be active in this market.
If you don't find any uh any ideas better protect your money don't lose this money on your uh on every trade or every investment alone you can have your money in the bank for the time being whenever you get right opportunity that that time you strike it has to be like But you know, Vijay, it's easy for people like you who have seen two bare cycles and then massive bull markets as well.
But for most of the investors who have come in at the COVID lows, they've not seen a bare market just yet. very very difficult for them to be patient in this market. So this is a lesson for them. That is what I'm saying. Any school, any college or any uh exam cannot or any course cannot teach all these newcomers that how to behave in this market.
So everybody has come and everybody wants to become a chopati overnight. That is the real problem. So now this what is whatever happening in 2025 and 26 or whatever is happening it is actually it is going to teach them a very good lesson. this market always doesn't go one side. There has to be a correction and reaction and action.
All these things happen as a part and parcel of of this market. Uh so I think that would actually that will build their character that will build their personality to be in this market for next 20 30 years. So I think this lesson was very important which they are going to learn. If they learn from this lesson then it is a good thing for them and otherwise.
So what opportunities are smiling in this market right now? You see currently I feel opportunities are not random. Again I think that one has to be very selective. So if you uh let me tell you that like suppose if India has to becomes a 10 trillion economy by 2030 32 or whatever it is now 10 10% GDP growth we are predicting projecting.
So maybe in 7 years we will double. So maybe in 7 10 years we will 101 12 or whatever it is. So I think without like infrastructure you cannot imagine uh $10 trillion economy. So I think and those also find sectors which has already you know reacted their infrastructure stocks as I said it it has already they have already 2/3 of value has gone now now they are available at a one/ird or uh maybe 30 40% of of their peak so I think it it could be a good opportunity in these sectors metals also ultimately this metal whatever happened in this metal and now they are correcting but I think maybe next 10 years should be for this metal stocks also.
So similarly tourism also government is also focusing on tourism. I think tourism is also a job creator. Tourism should also do well. So there are some pockets which are going to do well. I understand infrastructure but again your way would not be via L&T right? I'm sure there are small and midcap companies you're looking at any niche businesses within infra.
Yeah, of course, because I always uh invest in small companies, not L&T and all these things and all. So, there are many uh many uh companies you will find out which are doing something in water. We are doing something some EPC into power and all because as everybody's talking without power now again you cannot imagine even China has actually I read somewhere that China is advising USA to increase its power production.
China is advising if we don't teach us you just increase your power otherwise you're going to have a problem because of all this whatever this AI VI data center all this demand is going to come so huge demand is going to come so they are teaching uh USA so I think the same thing applicable to us also to any com company which are catering to all this business of power and water and all this infrastructure uh should be uh invested
what else is looking I think I like uh like hospital business. I like I have invested in hospital company. I like hospital business because there is in India we have a young population also and as well at the same time don't ask the name you are taking my no no because so India is now it's a unique situation we are a young country also as well as we are an aging population also.
So I think the demand for hospital is going to be there for next 10 15 years but stocks are very expensive. So one I was basically lifting the mic to say that that healthcare as a sector is priced to perfection and valuations have gone off. So wait for uh pray to god that suppose if something happens and all these now they have reacted 20% from it peak 20 30% they have uh reacted come off from their peak but still they are expensive.
So you have to keep a watch if a market reacts and if you get something cheaper then you can invest otherwise keep money in liquid fund. But you know Vijay the problem is and then that's the same with the other sectors also that you said uh tourism and hospitality definition of cheap is now very different than what it was 5 years back.
Yeah. So I will tell you that is that is the uh you know market is very unique. I will tell you another cheap uh uh sectors but you will you are not going to invest in those companies like PSU banks and all. So I'm bullish on PSU banks but nobody's going to invest. They are available at 5 6 7 P 12 13% credit growth rate dividend yield also 3 4%.
But you won't like it because you want fun you means people like all these young people are coming to the market they want uh fun they want some excitement so better to have a daru instead of investing in these cheapy stocks that will give you fun that will give you excitement that will give you hangover.
So this is what I think. Okay. So um other than the sectors the one call that you really got right Vijay and I still remember what two years back China your investment in China do you still have that and are you still bullish on your China returns? Yeah yeah yeah sir China uh I'm a patriot okay China is close to my heart let me tell you business-wise.
Okay so nihow so I know this much only in Chinese. So I'm a fan of China from business perspective. Let me tell you I'm a really big fan of China. I think China is the first wonder of 21st century. What China has done every country should learn from China including India, including USA, including Korea, Taiwan or whatever.
So I have invested in ETF which is listed at uh exchanges and I'm still holding of course I am holding uh I don't want to increase more because already gone up by 50 60 70% from their uh low. So but I am very uh yes I am upbe on China. So so China Hello mister. How do you do? How will he join you? Hello mister.
How do you do? Okay, on that note, Vijikia, always a pleasure having you on the show. Keep smiling and may your portfolio always do. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much, Mr. Kia, for those words of wisdom. Lots of notes are taken by the way. Sumit from this conversation and for that lovely song at the end also.
Round of applause as Aisha Chinu of course Aisha thank you so much for handing over the token of appreciation to Mr. Kadia gold. Do you know?
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