Bill Ackman Sells Netflix Stock

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넷플릭스 주가 급락 후 빌 애크먼(퍼싱스퀘어)이 보유 지분을 전량 매도한 소식을 다룬다. [결론] 빌 애크먼 매도는 넷플릭스 사업 불확실성 때문이며, 영상은 넷플릭스 장기 전망을 엇갈린 시각으로 다룬다. [뉴질랜드 인플레이션] 3월 분기 인플레이션 6.9%로 1990년 이후 최고 수준이나 시장 예상 7.1%보다 낮았다. 비거래재 인플레이션은 약 6%로 12월 5.3%에서 상승했다. 중앙은행은 기준금리를 0.5%p 올려 1.5%로 인상했고 추가 인상이 예상된다. 건축자재 가격 급등도 언급됐다. [넷플릭스 주가] 하루 만에 약 35% 급락했고 11월 17일 이후 약 67% 하락했다. 구독자 성장 둔화가 원인으로 제시됐다. [빌 애크먼 매도] 퍼싱스퀘어는 넷플릭스 지분을 전량 매도했다. 손실은 펀드 연초 대비 수익률을 4%p 낮췄고 현재 펀드는 연초 대비 약 2% 하락 상태다. 매도 이유는 넷플릭스의 광고 요금제 전환 등 사업모델 변화로 장기 구독자 성장과 내재가치 예측이 어려워졌다는 것이다. 애크먼은 포트폴리오가 고집중형이라 높은 예측 가능성이 필요하다고 밝혔다. [로스 저버 반론] 넷플릭스 투자자 로스 저버는 단기 고통은 인정하지만 장기 투자자로서 주식을 추가 매수했다고 밝혔다. 경쟁 상대는 다른 스트리밍이 아니라 실생활 활동이며, 무료 계정 공유 단속으로 유료 가입자 확대 여지가 있다고 주장했다. 구독자 성장 대신 이익 성장 지표로 평가해야 하며 넷플릭스는 저평가 상태라고 했다. [진행자 의견] 광고 요금제 전환은 스포티파이 모델과 유사할 수 있다. 콘텐츠 품질보다 수익화 방식이 핵심 과제이며, 극장형 체험·상품·커뮤니티 등 수익화 여지가 있다고 봤다. 넷플릭스가 유튜브처럼 광고 수익을 낼 수 있다는 의견도 소개됐다. [기타] 스포티파이도 함께 하락했으며 기술주 전반이 약세였다.

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01. hey jj here again from the art of value as i said last time i'm going to be doing this trying to do this three or four times a week and so today i've got some more follow-up from yesterday talking about netflix there's more news on netflix obviously the stock plummeted 35 percent was it 35.12 it was 26 in the pre-market or post market and i went more but first i want to talk about inflation i'm in new zealand asia asia pacific region and there was some news the inflation figures came out today uh and uh let's just i'll re i i've got a bunch of uh some content here and not that i haven't really looked at properly so i'm just going to react to it trying to make this too long i've been putting making this too long so a bit shorter so let's watch see what martin martin north from digital finance analytics has to say that he has he follows the news from australia and new zealand well inflation has hit its highest level in new zealand since 1990 but the 6.9 figure as at the march quarter is actually somewhat below market expectations which were for a figure of 7.1 percent the latest 6.9 figure is though up from 5.9 as at december 2021 and it's close to what the reserve bank of new zealand was expecting now of course they had suggested that inflation would peak at around seven percent in the first half of this year now the key non-tradables in other words domestically generated inflation figure is around six percent up from five point three percent in december showing that there is a great deal to do in terms of controlling rising prices within the country now of course the reserve bank is targeted with keeping inflation between one and three percent and explicitly targeting two percent and governor adrian orr has conceded that the central bank is quote not in a great place now with inflation the reserve bank of new zealand's main weapon of course against inflation is the official cash rate which was raised by 50 basis points to 1.5 percent last week and you can expect much more hiking in the months ahead yes so new zealand's put their cash rate up uh 0.5 percent uh and the thing is we're we're a small economy small developed economy but you know wall street and other countries look at what we're doing other central banks so the inflation is it's the trend higher around the world here six point nine percent and i can feel it i can feel that we're i'm building a house which i show you showed you a picture of a while ago and you know some materials like structural steel was more than double so building materials is kind of at the forefront of high inflation and uh it's unfortunate but um we kind of knew what we were getting into there and uh anyway so that's that there's just a bit of inflation news so next let's get to netflix so yeah thirty five point one two percent uh down up down listen so just overnight and so that's of course more than fifty percent what's it now let's check so it's down well 67.3 percent about since 17th of november down down down so i talked about the reasons some of the reasons for that and what i saw in the competition and how it relates to what's happening but the other news is of course that was out today is that bill ackman from pershing square holdings so famous investor well-known investor billionaire investor uh in the value realm sort of after after buffett uh it has small focused focus stocks usually only about seven or eight stocks and so i highly concentrated well is that highly concentrated it's not one stock but i'm not three stocks there are some investors with like with about three stocks okay next sleep is known for that anyway so this is his twitter uh at bill eggman and i noticed he didn't put the letter his shoehold letter which uh he didn't post it after posting last last quarter that that bought netflix no it isn't chunk of netflix after the last quarter earnings which fell and so this time but the internet was on to it and found it that's what see since let's see what he says in the investor letter that the reason for selling and the fact that they did this is what uh this is what bill ackman had to say in the shareholder letter today we sold our investment in netflix which we purchased earlier this year the loss on our investment reduced the pershing square funds year to date returns by four percentage points reflecting this loss as of today's close the pershing square funds are down approximately two percent year-to-date while we have a high regard for netflix's management and the remarkable company they have built in light of the enormous operating leverage inherent in the company's business model changes in the company's future subscriber growth can have an outsourced impact on our estimate of intrinsic value in our original analysis we viewed this operating leverage favorably due to our long-term growth expectations for the company okay so the thesis has definitely changed the way that as they see it and but it's only down a few it means that selling out quickly uh because at least the change means it didn't take the fun down too much um even even though they're concentrated yesterday in response to continue disappointing customer subscriber growth netflix announced that it would modify its subscription-only model to be more aggressive in going after non-paying customers and to incorporate advertising an approach that management estimates would take one to two years to implement while we believe these business model changes are sensible it is extremely difficult to predict their impact on the company's long-term subscriber growth future revenues operating margins and capital intensity okay so that's explained it pretty clearly and do they say you know subscriber quotes growing they can't see it's interesting it's changing to this if they change to this advertising and subscription based model it's kind of like a spotify in terms of it could be is it going to be freemium where they have free free subscribers they talk about cracking down on non-paying users which means sharing passwords and so forth but you know spotify is a premium model where you you have to you just do advertising and then you kind of get drawn into being a premium subscriber which isn't really that expensive for what you get in my opinion and uh so we're interesting to see if they take on more of an ad model and add revenue and uh subscription but what the hell bill eichmann's theme says it's two us basically to uncertain uh we believe the business model changes are sensible it is extremely difficult to predict their impact so it seems like uncertainty is chasing them away we require a high degree of predictability in the businesses in which we invest due to the highly concentrated nature of our portfolio while netflix's business is fundamentally simple to understand in light of recent events we have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company's future prospects with a sufficient degree of certainty based on management's track record we would not be surprised to see netflix continue to be a highly successful company and an excellent investment from its current market value that said we believe the dispersion of outcomes has widened to a sufficiently large extent that it is challenging for the company to meet our requirements for a core holding okay so basically uncertainty risk reward is less asymmetric perhaps they see that it's more uncertainty about about being able to predict the outcome so they're out uh what else this is a short letter actually so not much to go one of our learnings from past mistakes is to act promptly when we discover new information about an investment that is inconsistent with our original thesis that is why we did so here we are in the midst of an opportunity-rich environment for pershing square due to the dramatic shift in federal reserve policy the highly inflationary environment geopolitical uncertainty and the resulting high degree of security price volatility we therefore expect to find a good use for the netflix proceeds please feel free to contact the investor relations team if you have any questions about the above we are grateful for your support and long-term partnership okay so yeah they're out and that's pretty clear so i'm just going to finish up i'm just trying to not make this a lot too long i like i think i want to make short shortened more often so netflix craters after stock after shock subscriber drop so this is uh um on bloomberg bloomberg video with gerber a kawasaki president ross gerber talking about that uh who's invest whose investment firm is an investor in netflix joins emily chang so emily chang talking to to rascal let's see what he has to say okay you know it hurts for sure on the short term but if you're a long-term investor like we are i i bought a little bit myself today to be honest why why do you think well why do you see potential well it's what's changed is is really in my mind two things number one i don't really see the competition as really being the biggest issue from other streamers the competition is with real life and real life is back and people are going out and people are going to vegas people are going to disneyland and the problem is they're just watching less netflix and and when you look at how many people are getting netflix for free and what that addressable market is which is actually a third of their total subscribers um netflix still has a lot of room they can grow i think another thing a lot of people aren't talking about okay so that's not really contradictory to what bill lackman was saying in terms of the future could be good but you know two different investor opinions sandy bergville like the north gerber here about uh their future he's sticking with it didn't he said he bought some more he didn't sound too certain though did he really ran about about it as more certain as some other things he's been talking about so a bit of a brave face perhaps talking about is this could be a byproduct of the work from home culture you know netflix has really struggled with the work from home culture because making movies and and content is a collaborative process and it's been very difficult and netflix has called all their employees back into the office that's starting i think this month and i think reid hastings and the team there are the smartest people in hollywood and they're going to figure out new ways to monetize their brand and i think we just have to change the metrics that we're valuing netflix with towards earnings growth and away from subscriber growth and when you look at that netflix is a very cheap stock so let's talk about the ways that they could unlock new growth one cracking down okay so that's interesting talking about earnings rather than subscribers that subscribers is it maturing coming to the end uh i mean when i think about in terms of spotify i think spotify's got a long way to go especially because they have that premium model where they can bring people in who aren't subscribers and have advertising so they're up to them yeah close to 400 million subscribers where netflix is a lot less that everybody's paying well and there's the sharing passwords so let's see what he says about future growth i mean ekman didn't say that they wouldn't continue to grow he just said it wasn't too uncertain to to stick with it right now but you know he's a long-term investor on password sharing how much growth is that really going to unlock then of course there's the idea of an ad supported model a tiered model gaming or maybe it's just making better content which of all those options seems to be the hardest well better content is okay so yeah this is this sort of nonsensical thing right now they have the most watched shows on television currently uh i think it's so on the screen they're saying changes on the way to netflix netflix to explore cheaper ad back subscription has been ad free for 10 years rejected ad model back in july 2019 cheapest subscription with ads part of part of range about a range of things so i haven't listened to the earnings call i mean just getting the second hand but it does it's interesting that it seems more closer to the spotify model i think spotify actually uh kind of dropped in um dropped overnight too probably in kind of sympathy with it people worry about that let's see uh ten point eight six percent down a lot of companies with a lot of tech stocks were down there much it was pretty brutal overnight so it's not it's not surprising to be honest when i saw that when i was down 10 people associated two together inventing anna which my wife is uh watching like non-stop they have the best producers in hollywood and they have every great project in hollywood so the content isn't the issue the issue is monetizing the content in ways that they haven't in the past and i'm a big believer that netflix needs to reinvent the theater experience around their shows and movies and there's many ways they can monetize between merchandise events and communities they could build around their content which they currently are not secondly you've mentioned two i think very important areas which is an ad supported netflix lite which they take zero dollars in on ad revenue and you look at a model like youtube and how much money they're printing on advertising and that's the other thing youtube yep spotify and youtube so spotify is really sort of taking the uh youtube model there i think where they they can see well the thing is it's it's both it's what if i started a subscription that's very strong in subscription but can you know the advertising has been ramping up and they can see the opportunity there especially with podcasts and something that netflix can't do they can't they're not having as far as i know can't do plug i'm doing podcasts i mean that would be so different they would have to do something quite different there and i think uh spotify's got that and apple's the engagement netflix has the same engagement level as youtube and if they ran ads they would be very successful and i would advertise on netflix for sure you know and so that's another okay all right that's enough for today i think um so if you uh want to get more episodes going forward smash like subscribe uh it's interesting i was looking at the stance so most of uh this you i've only just started on youtube i think any uh subscribers or views there yet so hoping to ram that up over time i started on spotify and podcasting on the audio first so many more inspired spotify and uh apple actually is still the top so if you're on apple subscribe on there and on youtube but you'll see if you use spotify you'll see uh the video all right see you next time