저자: JosephCarlson · 외국인
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빌 애크먼이 넷플릭스 전량 매도 서한을 분석하고, 진행자 본인의 넷플릭스 보유 전략과 아마존 투자 논리를 설명한 영상. 결론: 넷플릭스는 한 분기 더 보유하며 구독자 감소가 200만 명을 넘으면 손절, 아마존은 포트폴리오 41.8%를 차지하는 핵심 보유 종목으로 강한 확신을 표명. 빌 애크먼 매도 배경: 넷플릭스 손실로 펄싱 스퀘어 펀드 연초 수익률이 4%p 줄었고 현재 연초 대비 약 -2% 상태라고 언급. 구독자 성장 둔화와 광고 요금제 전환에 따른 예측 가능성 상실을 매도 이유로 제시. 진행자의 넷플릭스 손실 분석: 포트폴리오 손실 20,800달러 중 넷플릭스 손실이 16,400달러. 밸류에이션 문제라는 시각에 대해 성장률 가정(2.5억 명 구독자 전망)이 빗나간 것이 핵심 실수라고 평가. 넷플릭스 향후 전략: 현재 보유 평가액 11,200달러, 한 주도 팔지 않음. PER 24배로 기대치가 낮아졌다고 판단해 다음 분기 실적과 연간 가이던스를 보고 결정. 구독자 200만 명 이상 감소 시 전량 매도 기준 설정. 아마존 투자 논리: AWS를 핵심 안전마진으로 평가하고 넷플릭스·디즈니 등 스트리밍 경쟁과 무관하게 수혜를 받는 구조라고 설명. 1차 매출 1배, 3자 판매 3배, 구독 4배, AWS 10배, 광고 5배 매출 기준의 SOTP로 2023년 기준 적정가치 2.4조 달러(현재가 대비 약 44% 상승), 분할 전 목표가 4,850달러 제시. 리스크: 2021년 잉여현금흐름이 마이너스 150억 달러로 대규모 설비투자 영향. 실적 발표(다음 주 목요일)가 포트폴리오에 중요한 이벤트라고 언급.
다듬은 글
well we have some breaking news bill ackman that bought in a billion dollars worth of netflix just three months ago sold entirely out of the company dumped his entire his entire position in it only three months after buying in and he did it after a 37 loss so in this episode we're going to be going over his letter of why he explains the reasons that he sold the company we're also going to be talking about my holding in netflix i haven't sold yet and i want to share my thoughts on if i'm going to sell or what my plans are going forward and then we also have another subject i want to dive into in this episode which is amazon's upcoming earnings next thursday amazon is by far my biggest position we have their earnings just one week away and i have some thoughts on what to expect for their upcoming earnings so we have a lot to get into let's go ahead and jump right in all right so first of all let's go ahead and look at the ladder here they're pershing square investors today we sold our investment in netflix so they sold the entire thing which we purchased earlier this year the loss on our investment reduced pershing square funds year-to-date returns by four percentage points so he had roughly the same position size i did i lost maybe four and a half percentage points based on uh just that one day the 36 down 36 down move he says reflecting this loss as of today's close pershing square funds are down approximately two percent year-to-date so people that are are kind of dunking on bill ackman like he's a bad investor because he bought it and then sold it quickly realize that he's down two percent year-to-date so take a look at your portfolio year to date see how you're doing and see if it's better than two percent anyways he goes on and says while we have high regard for netflix's management and the remarkable company they have built in light of the enormous operating leverage inherent in the company's business model changes in the company's future subscriber growth can have an outsize impact on our estimate of its intrinsic value in our original analysis we viewed this operating leverage favorably due to our long-term growth expectations for the company yesterday in response to continued disappointing customer subscriber growth netflix announced that it would modify its subscription-only model to be more aggressive in going after non-paying customers and to incorporate advertising an approach to management's estimates would take one to two years to implement while we believe these business model changes are sensible it is extremely difficult to predict their impact on the company's long-term subscriber growth future revenues operating margins and capital intensity now he goes on saying his requirements for any investment we require a high degree of predictability in the businesses in which we invest due to the highly concentrated nature of our portfolio while netflix's business is fundamentally simple to understand in light of recent events we have lost confidence in our ability to predict the company's future prospects with a sufficient degree of certainty based on management's track record we would not be surprised to see netflix continue to be a highly successful company and an excellent investment from its current market value that said we believe the dispersion of outcomes has widened to a sufficiently large extent that it is challenging for the company to meet the requirements for a core holding one of our learnings from the past mistakes is to act promptly when we discover new information about an investment that is inconsistent with our original thesis this is why we did so here we are in the midst of an opportunity-rich environment for pershing square due to the dramatic shifts in the federal reserve policy a highly inflationary environment geopolitical uncertainty and the resulting high degree of scrutiny price volatility we therefore expect to find good use for the netflix proceeds so when i read this letter i think it was a fancy way a well-worded way of blackman just saying look this last earnings report was shocking we didn't expect it this is way different than our normal investment thesis and we're just taking our losses and move on and moving on to something we expect that's basically what i see him saying we just did not expect this outcome so i don't blame bill ackman for selling in fact i think it fits with his investing framework pretty well the question is what do i do in this situation i am down twenty thousand eight hundred dollars in this portfolio and the huge majority of these losses sixteen thousand four hundred is from netflix alone the big majority of my overall losses in this entire portfolio is from one company so netflix so far has been a disastrous investment it's thrown me into the red and every single time we climb back to the green and i start making progress actually making gains netflix has another quarter which just knocks me right back into the red so this has been more than a frustrating investment it's been a terrible investment and i want to go over what i think i did wrong and what i plan on doing now so let's go ahead and first talk about what i did wrong a lot of people go right away to blaming valuation they say the reason that you're in the red on netflix is because it was overvalued it was a valuation problem you don't run discounted cash flow analysis right a lot of people say that first of all that's not true i have a discord where i discuss valuations all the time with lots of different investors we go through different scenarios and discounted cash flow analysis and when i put this much money into any investment i do a lot of valuation work on it so this wasn't a lack of effort in valuation and i think that simply saying the company was overvalued when you were buying it i think that understates the real problems here an important component of valuation is your expected growth of the company that is one really important ingredient or or factor to factor into the valuation and in that growth there's two important components there's how quickly you think the company will grow and for how long do you think it will grow those two variables alone determine a huge part of the terminal value or the intrinsic value of a company so if you have a company that you believe will grow at a very brisk pace and you think it will grow for a very long period of time 10 plus years that is a company that you're willing to pay more for than one that you think is just going to stay flat and not really grow but it's just going to kind of stay where it is that one would deserve a lesser multiple and a lower valuation so the growth rate and the expected growth of the company is a huge component of the price that you should be paying for the company my assumptions with netflix is that right now today it would have over 250 million subscribers that was my growth assumption they're struggling to get past 220 million they got to 222 and they're expecting to shrink so it's kind of part of my valuation the growth assessment is part of my valuation but more specifically the big thing that i got wrong with my analysis on netflix is the expected growth rate of the company they're running into resistance with their growth rate far quicker than i expected i expected at a minimum that they would be able to get to 350 million subscribers before seeing a lot of resistance in their growth and here we are at 220 million and they're seeing a lot of resistance so again you can say this was a valuation problem while that's technically true within the scope of valuation is the growth assumptions and that's specifically the part that i got wrong if netflix continued to grow according to my valuation and analysis what i thought it would continue to grow at then i'd be still fine paying the price i originally paid if they grew to 250 million subscribers and they're adding more subscribers every single quarter i don't think we'd be seeing the massive sell-offs that we're seeing i think the price i paid for it would have been completely fine so of course where netflix has run into trouble is their growth has completely stopped it's came to a grinding halt and now it's a question of whether or not they can continue to grow at all that's the question investors face so that requires a completely different valuation and i think the multiple contraction associated with that the re-rating of the company makes sense i think it's deserved i got the analysis wrong i thought the company would grow with ease it's not growing with ease it's running into a lot of trouble so it deserves to be re-rated at a lower valuation so the question for me is what do i do at this point do i do what bill ackman didn't just dump the holding and move on or do i hang on to it and by the way before you leave your comment of this is why you don't follow bill ackman into a holding i did not follow bill ackman into buying netflix i've held this company long before he was ever involved in it so before you leave that comment i didn't buy the company because bill ackman bought it now the question remains what do i do with my remainder of netflix i currently have 11 200 of value and i haven't sold a single share i've not sold out any part of this company i've decided that i'm going to hang on to it i just want to see a full year's performance and if this is a consistent trend of declining subscribers for the foreseeable future or if they can reverse this and start to gain subscribers towards the end of the year which is usually their best months because right now netflix has traded down so much another 36 percent in one day and then another three percent that there is a ton of pessimism built into this stock it's been completely re-rated it's down to a 24 p e ratio so all the growth investors have dumped out of the stock they've moved on and now it's being priced with much lower expectations the expectations are very low for netflix as of right now so i could continue to lose money with netflix they could continue to disappoint even below the current low expectations but i think the expectations are very low i think pessimism is very high people are becoming very bearish on streaming and netflix in general so i think the opportunity for them to actually outperform expectations are higher right now than they were a year ago certainly much higher so i'm gonna hold on to netflix for at least the next quarter i'm going to be looking at next quarter and seeing if they guide down again throughout the rest of the year and how many subscribers they really lose they're projecting a loss of 2 million subscribers and if they lose more than 2 million i'm dumping the stock so that'll be the final straw i'll sell the company at that point at a big loss but i just want to see if they're being very conservative if they actually beat the expectations of the minus two million subscribers and what they guide for the remainder of the year because that's usually a strong quarter for them so i think that next quarter will be very revealing of netflix and what their future path is and i just don't feel comfortable dumping out of the story as of right now so that's what i'm choosing to do but i understand if people sold it i understand if people bought in right now everyone has different views and expectations on netflix but that's what i'm doing i'm going to be holding on to netflix for one more quarter and seeing how this shakes out for the rest of the year now moving on i want to talk about amazon this is by far my biggest holding i have 41.8 percent of my portfolio into amazon i feel very confident in this holding it has a couple things that i think netflix lacked as an investment primarily it has a margin of safety i think that aws as a business acts as this enormous margin of safety to put it in perspective there's companies like netflix disney there's warner media there's all these streaming companies like stars and showtime and you know all these different ones competing to be the best streaming service but no matter which one wins it doesn't matter amazon wins they're hosting the data for every single streaming service virtually all of them except for apples right they're hosting the data for every single streaming service so they're kind of like this real estate landlord of the streaming services they win no matter who becomes victorious whether it's netflix or or disney both of them use aws so i look at amazon as an inevitable winner it's a platform that has a growth path that i think is very unlikely to be disrupted and i think that that brings in a much larger margin of safety than the smaller bets of companies like adobe or salesforce i think that amazon is a much safer bet now having said that let's go ahead and look at some of the valuation of amazon and their fundamentals like i said the earnings are right around the corner they're next thursday for amazon and that's very important for my portfolio because i have over 40 of my portfolio in this one company i can recover from a loss in netflix i can recover from a loss in alibaba but i cannot recover from a loss in amazon if this company doesn't perform well over the next four years then i'm not going to be able to outperform the s p 500 so having said that let's go ahead and jump right into this the market cap is 1.57 trillion dollars so one and a half trillion dollar market cap a lot of people look at the ford pe of the company and base amazon's valuation off of that i think that's an incorrect way of looking at it because amazon they do things with their earnings that i don't think are fully reflective of their profitability for example we can look at the annual free cash flow here notice how it goes up into the double digit billions for 2018 2019 2020.
it's growing consecutively every single year and then amazon has negative free cash flow of 15 billion in 2021. now did amazon struggle in 2021 did the company was it like netflix where they're just losing customers no this company's on fire they're growing like crazy the reason that they have negative 15 billion dollars of free cash flow in 2021 is because they did massive capex investments in their retail business they hired hundreds of thousands of new employees they opened up hundreds of warehouses they bought planes they bought shipping trucks they bought vans they did massive investments that they expect to get a return on in the future now having said all of that let's go ahead and jump into the sum of the parts valuation this is where you break out the different aspects of amazon and give each of them their own unique valuation based on future assumptions and i think that this is pretty accurate conservative assumptions so we have the first thing that we can look at which is one party first party revenue this is the stuff that amazon sells themself on their website not third-party sellers so when amazon sells their own items on their websites in many cases it's stuff that other people don't want to sell amazon doesn't really want to compete with all their sellers they'd rather fill in the gaps and make the shopping experience more complete they want you to have a wide selection of stuff so they look for the stuff that doesn't have great margins and that's what they try to sell so their first party revenues is a lot like walmart it's just not high margin it's very low margin revenue and because of that we're going to only give this a one times price to sales so just a one price to sales this part of the company will be valued at one year's worth of sales they're expected to do in 2023 336 billion dollars in first party sales it's a lot of sales but this is amazon we're talking about and if we give that a 1x on the price to sales that's 336 billion dollars market cap so right there we have 300 billion dollars of market cap for amazon now the third party sales which is hundreds of thousands of small businesses selling on amazon's marketplace this has a much higher margin because amazon basically just fulfills a product and they don't count the entire thing as revenue they only count the part that they make money on their fees as a revenue of the sales so this is understating how much they actually sell in third-party sales if you looked at the total revenue of third-party sales it would be multiples bigger than this but since amazon only counts their fees is revenue it's 159 billion dollars and because this has three times the margin of first party sales we're gonna give it a three times price to sales that brings a valuation to 477 billion dollars in the market cap now moving on we have the retail subscription revenue this is very high margin revenue and it's very consistent sticky revenue amazon has one of the lowest churn rates in the industry right there with costco and because this is high margin revenue we give a higher valuation a four times price to sales which again i think is pretty reasonable now they're expected to have 52 billion dollars of subscription revenue in 2023 which means that this aspect of the business would be worth 208 billion dollars based on these assumptions that's what it's worth now moving on we have the aws portion of amazon aws is by far the most important most profitable biggest growth path least disruptible biggest moat part of amazon it is the key part of this business and i think that in five to ten years that will become increasingly clear that when you're investing in amazon you're investing in this powerhouse of a business called aws with their little side thing that they do in retail and their logistics business and their subscriptions those are all little side things around the central business which is aws and i think that this business in and of itself is on par with the likes of microsoft so i hold aws an incredibly high regard and i think that this will continue to be a big profit center for amazon now aws right now does 70 billion dollars in revenue that's their run rate and they're expected in 2023 to do 111 billion which i think is a very conservative assumption based on their growth rate the multiple that we're giving it is a conservative 10 price to sales a 10 price to sales is a lower multiple than microsoft which currently has an 11 or 12 and microsoft is growing around half the speed of aws so this is a very conservative multiple for this company there's arguments out there that you could give aws a 15 or 20 price to sales but we're being conservative giving it a 10 price to sales that puts the enterprise value of just aws at 1 trillion 100 billion dollars 1.15 so just this portion of amazon in and of itself i think is worth over a trillion dollars i think it's worth the majority of amazon and if you value any of the other business above 400 billion dollars which i think is extremely silly it's conservative obviously it's worth more than that i think that amazon right now is heavily undervalued we can continue on with this we have the other revenues advertising advertising is a bigger business for amazon than it is for youtube youtube makes less money in advertising than amazon does in fact amazon's advertising business on their website amazon.com is not only bigger than youtube but it's actually growing at a quicker pace they're making more money at a quicker pace than youtube.com we have expectations in 2023 that the advertising portion of amazon will have 59 billion dollars in revenue and this is an extremely high margin business this is one of the most high margin parts of amazon if we attach a five price to sales on that which i think is conservative that is a 299 billion dollar market cap so when we break down all the parts of amazon and give them all different conservative valuations the company should be worth 2.4 trillion in 2023 which currently is a 44 upside that would mean the price target as of right now pre-split would be 4850.
so the reason that i have amazon is such a big conviction such a big bet in my portfolio the reason that i have 42 percent of my portfolio allocated to it is not because i like the logo or i like the website or you know jeff bezos isn't my hero that's not the reason that i'm buying this stock the reason that i'm buying it is because of the valuation i think this company is heavily undervalued based on a breakdown of the parts of the company and their future growth expectations i think that investors are heavily underestimating amazon so with amazon i not only have very high expectations but i also feel like i have a decent margin of safety i don't think i'm going to lose any type of money on amazon like i have with netflix i think that it has a much better margin of safety and one last thing that i'll mention on amazon this company is constantly still innovating they're still creating new stuff all the time amazon unveils buy with prime expanding prime shopping benefits beyond amazon.com so now third-party websites can have a buy with prime button where you pay with prime and all the fulfillment and all the customer service even though you're on a third-party website is still fulfilled through amazon justice news alone took shopify down nine percent today the fact that amazon is now going outside of the bounds of amazon.com now you're going to be able to order from amazon and their fulfillment as a service beyond just amazon.com so i'm very bullish on this company i look forward to the earnings crossing my fingers that it goes well but we'll see you
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