저자: JosephCarlson · 외국인
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결론: 찰리 멍거의 Daily Journal이 알리바바 보유 물량 50%를 매도했다는 소식이며, 매도 이유는 확실하지 않고 여러 가설이 있다. 뉴스 사실: Daily Journal이 2022년 1분기(Q1) 알리바바 지분 절반을 매도했다. 멍거는 2021년 Q1, 같은 해 Q1 추가 매수, 2021년 말에도 추가 매수했던 인물이라 이번 매도는 이례적이다. 멍거의 2월 발언: 2022년 2월 멍거는 중국 기업의 가치와 가격 면에서 미국보다 나은 투자 기회라고 말했으나, 동시에 중국 투자를 망설이는 사람도 있다고 언급했다. 발언은 불과 한 달 전 것이다. 매도 이유 가설 1: Daily Journal 경영진 교체(2022년 3월 28일 새 회장 및 임시 CEO 선임). 신임 경영진이 중국 노출 축소를 원했을 가능성. 매도 이유 가설 2: 멍거가 중국 전망을 바꿨을 가능성. 중국의 록다운, 방역 강화(영상 증거 언급)가 악화되어 실적 부진이 예상된다는 논리. 단, 진행자는 멍거의 최근 발언을 볼 때 입장 변화 가능성은 낮다고 봤다. 매도 이유 가설 3: 세금 손실 확정(tax loss harvesting). 수익이 난 다른 종목의 세금을 상쇄하기 위한 전략적 매도 가능성. 매도 이유 가설 4: 보유 주식의 일부를 홍콩 상장주로 전환했을 가능성. 이 경우 미국 공시에는 매도로만 나타나므로 실질적 매도가 아닐 수 있다. 진행자의 개인 포트폴리오: 최근 5일 약 1만3천 달러 손실, S&P500 대비 약 13% 하회. 목표는 2025년 말까지 S&P500 상회. 알리바바는 작년 10월 이후 추가 매수 없이 보유 중이며 약 1만2천 달러 투자, 4,800달러 손실 상태. 매도 계획 없이 장기 보유 입장. 결론적 조언: 유명 투자자도 틀릴 수 있으므로 개인 확신과 리서치를 갖고 자신의 상황에 맞춰 투자 판단을 내려야 한다.
다듬은 글
oh boy we have some news here if you're an alibaba investor you're already not having a good time i i'm just being frank here we're not having a good time as alibaba investors it's been a troubling past six months and then we get news that charlie munger the value investor the legendary investor the diamond hands buy and hold for life 20 year time horizon has sold half his position in alibaba and this was last quarter q1 of 2022 this year he dumped half his position in alibaba and this is particularly uh particularly surprising because he was just buying the company repeatedly he bought it in q1 of 2021 he bought more of it in q1 and 2021 and then he doubled down again at the tail end of last year only to dump half his position this quarter so this raises the important question why did he sell why did he dump half of his alibaba position and we're going to be discussing that in this episode i'm gonna propose what i think are the four most realistic reasons why we see him dumping 50 of his share count and i'll go through all four of those reasons and try to figure this out with you in this episode now before we jump into that it has to be said that i have my own portfolio here i track it with transparency every single week week by week with this channel so if you want to see how this turns out good or bad over the course of the next four and a half years you can subscribe and follow along for free but i do something interesting here i don't only explain my investments and explain my my thoughts on different companies but i show what i'm doing i show how much money i'm putting into different companies and i show the outcome at the end of the week every single week for example this week has been very tough we went from the green back into the red i'm down 13 000 over the past five days so pretty difficult week every single company in my portfolio is down over the week you know you name it all of them are down so i can't really blame it on one company overall i do benchmark my performance against the s p 500 we can look at that here the s p 500 is in red my portfolio is in blue right now we are trailing the s p 500 by around 13 now the challenge here my goal and what i'm going to do is outperform the s p 500 from now until the end of 2025.
that is my goal and many of you are looking at this saying joseph there's no way you're already trailing the s p 500 i realize that and you're going to see me catch up to it and surpass it by the end of 2025. if you're questioning how i'm going to do that just follow along you'll see it unravel over the next four years now on that note one of the companies that's been hurting my performance so far is alibaba this is a company that i jumped into last year i started buying the company when it was dipping down i bought a little bit more of it as it continued to go down and i stopped buying the company saying that i'm done i've exhausted my buys on alibaba around october of last year that was the last time that i bought this company since then i've just been a bag holder of it just holding the stock not buying or selling it and i still haven't sold a single share so this is what it looks like so far i've invested like you know twelve thousand dollars in it i'm down four thousand eight hundred now having said that let's go ahead and take a look at what happened the breaking news is that the one time very big bowl on china and alibaba who was just previously doubling down repeatedly on this investment has sold out so we have an article here from january 5th this was literally the beginning of this year charlie munger's firm doubles down on alibaba investment again this is the second time he did a huge buy into alibaba we also have mid-february of this year again mid-february of this year charlie munger sang this regarding alibaba and china we invested some money in china because we could get more value in terms of the strength of the enterprise and the price of the security than we could get in the united states other people including sequoia the leading venture capital firm in the united states have made the same decision we have but i'm sympathetic to gun lager he's nervous he doesn't have to join us different folks have different opinions he said that february of this year this is like a month ago so a month ago charlie munger's on stage drinking his coke saying we're investing in china because we're getting more for what we're paying for right we're buying a lot of company earnings for the price that we're paying which is kind of the bowl case if there is any bowl case left for alibaba that the company's so cheap with its fundamentals because of all the the scary stuff going on that people like charlie munger are brave enough to go in there and buy it when nobody else wants it so that's what he was saying literally just weeks ago and then we hear this breaking news that he's dumping half his position after doubling down in q4 of 2021 the daily journal which is it's kind of the company that charlie munger's over he's a steward over it it reduces its holding by 50 so that's the shocking news here now i will say that this is surprising i don't fully understand this but like i said i have four different theories of the most plausible explanations of why this happened the first one is that the daily journal is not like solely controlled by charlie munger he has a ton of clout i think he has a ton of sway but it's not entirely controlled by him it's actually a separate company charlie munger's a part of it but there's other people involved in here and i know charlie munger is getting older he's kind of shifting into more of a retirement role and so one of the possible theories and i'm not saying this is why this is just a theory is that the leadership is changing at the daily journal and maybe someone came in and they said hey charlie i want to do this and he said i don't think that's a good idea but you can do it so that's an option we have the daily journal names a new chairman and interim ceo announces other leadership changes this was march 28th of this year so as they're going through these transitions in leadership i could see it plausible that the new leaders of this company taking over the reins and kind of wanting to direct things themselves are wanting to lower their exposure to china that's one possible explanation again this isn't for sure this is just one of the theories now the next possibility which i think is a possibility but in my opinion it's less likely maybe charlie munger is changing his mind on china maybe he underestimated some things with china and the things that they're doing if you look at what china's done over the past couple of months they've reinstituted a lot of the lockdowns and this was a surprise to people in the west because over here we're kind of over covered we got the vaccines you see some people wearing face masks but most people aren't anymore uh it's not really in the news anymore right we're just kind of moving past it well over in china covet is like the big thing right now they're still in huge lockdowns and the government there has taken a very scary forceful way of dealing with it to the point where they're basically starving their citizens here's a video of some of the audio and this isn't in english but i think this illustrates the problem the translation here which i assume is correct people in the comments are saying uh that people are saying that they need food they're running out of food they're literally starving now i don't know for sure the validity of this video it could be fabricated but it you know it could be very real i think this type of thing is happening in china here's another one being shared around social media of drone drones telling people to stay inside stop singing stop yelling outside of the windows now if you're curious why americans like their guns that's an example right there that thing would never fly in the u.s people would be shooting down that drone um but regardless the situation in china is is dramatic it's actually getting worse when i look at my exposure to china with companies like starbucks and alibaba i know that next quarter in china is not going to be good i know that same store sales is going to be way down they have quarantines it seems like china's not willing to move on from the coronavirus seems like their vaccines aren't that effective they're separating families from their children if their children get covered they're doing all sorts of crazy stuff so maybe maybe charlie munger just looked at this and thought i underestimated china right i underestimated them now in my opinion i don't think that one's correct when i see that charlie munger just a couple weeks ago was still very much on the same the same talking points that he's been on the entire time i don't think he's changed his mind on china in the past six weeks i just think it's unlikely but it is a possibility maybe he changed his mind on china decided to lower his exposure because things are starting to unravel there so so far we have leadership changes in the daily journal maybe that had a role to play in it the new leaders didn't want alibaba in their portfolio maybe he just decided he was wrong after seeing what's going on with china and the the new lockdowns that don't seem to be going away that's always a possibility in my opinion i think that one's unlikely for him to change his mind like that he seems very stubborn um there is the option this would be the third one of tax loss harvesting maybe it's just a strategic thing to take on a loss right now uh pay some of the the taxes with that with the companies that he has had do really well so that could be an option and then the fourth thing that i think is also somewhat likely is converting half the shares to hong kong shares i think that is an option if he did that it would not show up on dadorama because they don't need to be reported so all we would see on our end is that he sold the shares here but we wouldn't see if he converted them to hong kong shares because it doesn't have to be reported now out of those four options the real truth is here we don't know for sure and we're not going to know for sure until someone asks charlie munger so that's the situation we're in right now and that brings me to my final point which is you might see people buying different stocks doing different trades sharing different insights of what they're doing with their investments realize that no matter how good of a history they have how smart they sound or whatever they're doing that none of them are going to be 100 accurate not a single one warren buffett has many failed investments bill ackman had herbalife he had valiant he had lots of investments that he lost lots of money on that everything went terribly charlie munger is no different he has had many failed investments so if you're watching someone no matter how good they are they're not going to be perfect and this is something you should be careful of you have to have your own conviction your own research your own due diligence when you're buying stocks here's a clip from an interview i did on amit's show he has a youtube channel he wanted me to do an interview so i i did one with him this was one week ago and ahmet here asked me he said joseph don't you have a renewed enthusiasm of alibaba because charlie munger is just pouring more money into it right he put in another like 50 million dollars into it or whatever and this was my reply to that question you look at their history uh buffett's been wrong before charlie munger's been wrong before if you look at they made many failed investments um but if it turns out it's a good investment they make a lot of money so i'm not going to go all in on it even if charlie munger does even if another big name investor does i will limit my risk with it because i can't have my long-term portfolio completely determinate on you know determine based off of what china does i just am not willing to do it on social media on youtube we share lots of ideas we talk about investing we help share insights and research and different things that we can learn about and help become better investors overall and that's great to learn from other people and get ideas and insights but ultimately you are the one that has to make the final decision on what investments you make and you have to do that with your situation in mind not other people's situations so whenever i buy and sell a company i'm always trying to make money doing that always trying to have a positive roi in no way is it going to work out every time so far with alibaba it's not working out as of right now i'm not selling i'm going to continue holding i want to see what happens over the next couple of years when things kind of move on with china and eventually they get over covered at some point so i'm still holding i'm still longit but by no means is that the situation for everyone or do i think it should be so that's my thoughts with this video i hope you enjoyed i have more updates coming on this channel in the future about changes i've made in my portfolio so stay tuned i'll see you soon you
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