저자: Paul · 외국인
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52주 신저가 종목(CAT, NVDA, MU)을 자체 스톡 애널라이저 툴로 분석. CAT은 매출 역성장과 높은 부채를 근거로 적정가가 현재가(171)보다 크게 낮다고 제시하고, 수익률 2~3%로 매력이 낮다고 봄. NVDA는 가정치 기준 적정가 약 70~105달러로 현재가(147) 대비 하락 여지를 언급하되 추가 리서치 필요라고 함. MU는 현재가 근처를 적정 범위에 두고 가격·현금흐름 괴리 원인 확인을 권고. 개별 종목 매수 권유가 아닌 스크리닝 과정 설명 취지.
다듬은 글
three stocks at 52 week lows let's check out if they're buy or not caterpillar nvidia and micron technologies so here's our stock analyzer our software guys if you're already a subscriber to our software and you're part of the em community open up your browser start watching it with us if you're not you're gonna love the software just check it out easy to sign up for so first one caterpillar we just type in cat so first thing we're going to look at the chart wow look at that drop just recent oh my gosh june 8th it was 2 30.
it's currently at 170. 52 week high is 237 170.66 probably reached that today all right let's go to the eight pillars so guys here are the eight pillars a lower roic which doesn't surprise me it's a big company it's gonna be hard for them to deploy their capital and get high rates of return but seven percent is not awful uh higher debt so what's one thing remember the eight pillars here won't tell you to buy or sell stock it's merely a screening process first thing i'm gonna ask is why do they have so much debt find out why they have so much done and finally their price to free cash flow is a little high so it doesn't match up with their pe which is a little bit lower so that's something else to check out why are the pe and the price of free cash flow are not even close to the same they're twenty percent difference all right so i'm just going to take a quick seek peak at the income statement today check the revenue so guys look at this 63 billion 55 55 43 39 48 55 i mean all over the place so this is caterpillar my first question is do they sell stuff along the way do they buy things along the way because it's a lot of drop for such a big company or they sell a lot of major equipment just maybe there's a slowdown in buying equipment it's going to drive down prices and revenue big time so keep this in mind when we go to the stock analyzer tool and make our assumptions about the future right because right now they're actually lower in revenue by 20 than they were 10 years ago that's a big drop for such a big company okay so let's go scroll down a little bit to the net income level now their net income looks a little more consistent it's still dropped climbing back up now caterpillar sells very expensive big equipment we are on the tail ends of an economic boom and if you saw our previous videos you'll see that maybe where the economic boom is slowing down and guys i'm paul this is everything money if you like this video please subscribe to the channel there are over 600 videos in our history and we post two per day so subscribe to the channel all right so let's go check out the stock analyzer tool our most famous tool what this allows us to do is make our assumptions about the future based on the past and it'll tell us what to pay for the stock today based on those assumptions now remember these assumptions are i'm going to sell you how i get to them but it's not to be set in stone we don't know the future we're just making reasonable assumptions as warren buffett says he doesn't buy a company unless he has a reasonable idea of what they're going to make over the next five 10 or 20 years so in this situation i picked 10 year analysis you can pick one to 20.
so revenue growth guys look at this negative two percent a year for the last 10 years so i'm gonna do negative two zero no negative two one and four percent revenue growth profit margin they range from seven to twelve percent but the twelve percent is the most recent one year the seven point three is more consistent for ten years so i'm gonna go seven eight and nine percent you might say that there's a paul they did twelve percent last year i know but it's also one year of data on ten years and tail end of economic boom a lot of pent-up demand as you saw in a lot of companies so i'm gonna be more conservative on that one free cash flow margin much more consistent in the five and ten year numbers i'm gonna do seven seven and a half and eight now why didn't i do seven eight nine well because the five and ten year numbers were seven and a half and basically seven and a half so i'm just gonna kick it keep it more um more consistent they do a little bit worse at seven a little bit better it's eight very simple remember guys don't get caught up in these very minute details what i want to make sure you're not doing is putting in 10 here i'd be like well where'd you get 10 from here and they haven't done 10 percent and even here if you did 10 i'd say okay maybe that's the high end that shouldn't be your low end go on the pass to see how they're doing and also keep in mind that during economic booms margins are bigger so you should contract those margins a little bit now for pe i'm going to go with 12 on the low side 14 in the middle 16 of the high and the same with price of free cash flow and my final desired annual return i i usually do 12 and a half especially for larger companies why is that because you can get 9 or 10 just by investing in a long-term etf so give yourself margin of safety and a reason to buy an individual stock so when i hit the analyze button it's going to tell me based on these assumptions what i should be paying for the stock today scroll down all right guys the stock is at 171.
even though it's a 52-week low according to these numbers we got a long way to go we have a low of 55 and a high of 120. and the middle numbers is around 80. so we got we got to fall basically in half you might sit there and say oh my god paul half well remember this 14 pe becomes seven you're like paul it's insane but they're also coming off of really really high profit margin in that one year so this isn't this is a this is a pe that's not exactly accurate this is purely math guys if everything stays the same this company but they hit this level the middle level you got to pay 80 bucks to get a 12.5 return so what do you have to pay if you pay today's price what return are you getting well we have to work a little bit backwards here let's go five percent return guys if you change the five percent return in the middle section you're still not even there you're in about 130 dollar price so bates paying today's price of 171 you might be getting a two or three percent return because of the long run stocks are awaiting machine in the short run they're a voting machine so let's go to the next stock nvidia now we're gonna go through this one a little bit quicker because we already have explained some of the things here but let's look at nvidia wow look at nvidia's chart a high of 346 and a low of 140.
guys i remember people thinking i was crazy go look at our past videos about nvidia paul you're crazy this stock won't fall but okay sounds good but look at this it's fallen by over half in in six or seven months over half so let's go to the eight pillars tab all right so they've increased their shares outstanding just a little bit in the last five years not a ton but just a little bit and don't blame them expensive stock go issue shares to everybody they want to buy your shares don't take on debt to fund your business take issue shares but look at these pes and price of free cash flow 73.75 pretty close together all right anything else here i want to take a look at ooh look at this high return that's a capital 13 i like that very low debt i like that too yeah everything else looks good so let's go to our stock analyzer tool now stock analyzer tool look at these revenue growth numbers one year is a 53 percent five year 28 a year 10-year 23.5 it will not likely grow that much my goal is to be conservative in all my assumptions because there are 10 000 stocks out there i want to find the 20 to 40 that fit my criteria the company last year did how much in revenue go to income statement 30 billion in revenue if they were to grow at 25 a year for the next 10 years again 1.25 to 10th power times 30 billion they would do 280 billion dollars in revenue that would be four times larger than intel today is it possible yes is it probable i hear i'm here to make investments based on the probable outcomes and i just don't think 25 growth for 10 years is probable so i'm gonna put in 7 10 and 13.
profit margin so going on these past numbers i'm going to go 25 28 31 same with free cash flow my p e 14 16 18 14 16 18. twelve and a half percent return now guys you look at this p e in price of free cash flow but paul it's 39 it's 46 well yeah but six seven months ago it is 100 does that make 100 reasonable you still have to go based on historical numbers because a dollar of cash flow does not care about anything besides it's a dollar cash flow i didn't care where it came from and i put a higher p e for higher growing companies now is 14 16 18 reasonable i don't know but we'll check it out and we'll see the differences that's the analyze button the stock's at 147.
it's going to fall in half from here if you want to hit these middle assumptions you hit these middle assumptions then you have to be at 70 the low is 47 the high is 105. a middle of 70 bucks so my idea is i would sit there if you have the software hit the plus button at 105. what this does it adds it to your watch list notify me when it hits below 105 and that way when it hits you'll get an email and a message on your app and it'll tell you hey go check out nvidia that doesn't mean go buy nvidia it means go check it out have the fundamentals gotten better do i need to do more research you probably need to do more research because it's a very high level view up final stock micron technologies now micron is a big one for monash probably monis gre is a um is a friend of the show he loves micron he loved it back at 90 and i'm quite sure he loves d56 let's see what he sees in it okay so as i said look at the 52 week high 100 bucks 52 week low 52 and it's currently selling for 55 dollars a share 56 dollars a share wow it's a four percent today holy cow today's a down day in the market by a good chunk and it's up four percent today go to the eight pillars now a lot more red x's here but remember again this is not to tell you to buy or sell a company it's about telling a story so right here a lower roic net income has fallen minor shares outstanding and cash flow growth is decreased so these are all questions of my biggest one is why is net income and cash flow falling over the last five years because this really isn't a lot of shares outstanding it doesn't bother me that much i just want to make sure that i'm issuing huge amounts of shares okay but right here look at this pe five year pe of eight five year price of free cash flow 16.
so of course i want to ask why are earnings and free cash flows so different here all right so let's go to our stock analyzer tool now revenue growth numbers i'm gonna do six i'm gonna do five eight and eleven i'm going to do profit margin of oh wow look at the profit margin that's what throws me here the last five years have done 29 but 10 years have been 22.8 so let's go 22 25 28.
free cash flow margin 11 13 15. pe 12 14 16 12 14 16. now guys look at this the current p e is seven and i went to 12 14 16. i'm not going lower than seven why because seven isn't unreasonably low for especially for a company that's existing and good and great that's way too low of a pe in my opinion so i'm gonna go put it higher okay i'm not just always here to drag it down i'm gonna put it higher and finally my twelve and a half percent return and we're gonna hit the analyze button and again the company's currently if it's already gone up in a few pennies since 56 bucks and this is probably why monash likes it it's pretty much all green but it's wide ranges why because price price for price profit margin and free cash flow are very different almost half so you got to find out why but right now if you like these assumptions you got to take a look at the stock further go figure out why these numbers are so different and maybe and go find out what monis's whole entire thesis is so why do we go through these videos like this we really believe the more you know the less you fear the future out there is unknown but the more you understand about what affects it the better you will do and less fear you'll have if you like this video please watch a past video we did 52 week lows on microsoft intel and disney thank you very much like and subscribe bye
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