저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
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트럼프 당선 후 증시 사상 최고치와 금리 상승은 투자자들이 트럼프의 성장 정책(인프라 투자, 법인세 개혁, 규제 완화)에 기대를 걸고 있기 때문이라는 분석. 엘-에리안은 시장이 트럼프의 친성장 요소(인프라, 세제, 규제완화)를 높이 평가하고 무역 보호주의 요소는 경시한다고 설명. 어조가 건설적·통합적인 점도 시장 안정에 기여. 에스트룰린 Austin 교수 측은 대규모 감세가 조세 재원 없이 성장을 크게 끌어올릴 것이라는 주장에 회의적. 부시 감세 사례에서도 성장 효과가 크지 않았다고 지적. 미국 성장률이 약 2%에 머무는 이유는 금융위기 전 버블 붕괴 후 성장 동력을 수출·설비투자·혁신 쪽으로 전환하는 데 시간이 걸리기 때문이라는 설명. 금리 상승은 성장·인플레이션 기대 상승과 연준 긴축 전망 변화 때문이며, 12월 금리 인상 가능성이 선거 직후보다 높아졌다고 봄. 배경 리스크로 트럼프 행정부가 연준의 정치적 독립성을 훼손할 가능성에 대한 우려가 언급됨.
다듬은 글
joining me right now former economic adviser to President Obama Austin gby along with aliance chief economic adviser and President Obama's Global Development Council chairman Muhammad L Aran gentlemen good to see you thank you so much for joining us great to see you so Muhammad let me kick this off with you to what do you attribute this week's performance we see a real uh would you call it a romance with with markets as As Trump was elected president why did stocks go to record highs why did interest rates uh move as high as they did the 10-year highest since April because Traders and investors Maria have embraced the prospects of higher growth and high inflation under president-elect Trump and they've done that for two reasons content and tone the content of his comments has been to emphasize to progrowth elements of his program higher infrastructure spending corporate tax reform deregulation and downplay the anti-trade elements and the tone the tone has been incredibly constructive and unifying yeah I think you're right I mean when you look at the infrastructure plans coupled with the lower taxes and a roll back of Regulation he's promising to Spur economic growth Austin what do you think about that how much growth are you expecting as a result of these plans not a ton I mean I think we we've had a significant uncertainty that was bearing down in the market trying to figure out this question that that Muhammad raises is Donald Trump going to go for that National IST kind of protectionist agenda or is he going to shift if he were elected to a more traditional Republican agenda of you know big tax cuts regulatory Cuts thus far he seems to be going toward the more standard Republican route but I we have yet to see this other shoe drop which is how are his supporters the non-establishment Republicans going to react to the last 72 hours in which you they're taking down a bunch of the big promises on the campaign website they named a bunch of lobbyists and the the list of people they're talking about for jobs in Washington are the are the same old lifetime politician kind of names I I think we saw when George Bush enacted pretty close to the program that Trump is now describing big tax cut big roll back of regulations that had existed under President Clinton we did not get a very big jump and growth if you got a little bit but uh you know we were going into a recession right then so but didn't that wasn't that coupl wasn't that coupled Austin with a whole host of new regulations which did also hamper growth um so in other words what you're saying is you don't think lower taxes you don't think lower taxes and and a roll back of regulations will lead to growth I I do not think that giant tax cuts for high income people and corporations lead to Rapid growth it did that did not happen when George Bush did it and uh factually it's not true that George Bush increased a bunch of regulations when he came in he repealed a whole bunch of the things that Clinton had put in I think the the argument that unpaid for tax cuts that are going to grow the deficit will create magic bean stock beans that grow the economy I think has been disproven many times I think they will pass a tax reform of that nature but I don't think that that will have a big impact so what what do you think's been wrong with the last eight years then how come we're still at just 2% growth the reason we've been about 2% growth as as we've talked about many times is we had a large bubble that popped and the economy can't go back to doing what it was doing before the recession began and so that involves transforming the main drivers of growth and that's a slow process and you know we what we need is to shift to more exports more capital investment more Innovation Le growth and you can't do that overnight Mohammad let me ask you about this mooving interest rates do you think that has to do with the worry about inflation given that we are going to see more spending in terms of infrastructure uh which Trump has spoken about or or do you think that we're seeing that have to do with the Federal Reserve I think we're seeing mainly because of the embracement as I said of higher growth and higher inflation we also are having a redefinition if you like of what the FED is likely to do and with the market so calm and with inflationary expectations going up that means the FED is more likely to hike in December than what people thought immediately after the election results and finally in the background Do's this concern and it hasn't come out yet and it's important that it stay in the background there's this concern as to whether a trump presidency will come after the political Independence of the Federal Reserve so the main driv is now are growth inflation to a lesser extent the Fed
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