저자: BillMiller · 외국인
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결론: 미국 경제는 견조하고 주식은 채권 대비 싸다는 낙관적 시각이다. 거시경제: 금융위기 이후 미국 경제는 상승 궤도이며, 고용·물가 등 후행지표뿐 아니라 신용스프레드·주가 같은 선행지표도 양호하다고 봄. 저물가·저실업, 기업이익·GDP·가계순자산 사상 최고 수준 언급. 주식 밸류에이션: 주가는 채권 대비 '어리석을 정도로 싸다'고 평가. 10년물 국채금리 약 1.5%, S&P500 PER 약 16배(이익수익률 약 6%) 기준 Fed 모델식으로 보면 격차가 역사적으로 매우 커 주식 쪽으로 해소될 것이라 전망. 섹터: 시장 내 양극화 — 유틸리티·필수소비재·통신은 채권 대체재로 과대평가, 경기민감주·논쟁적·위험해 보이는 종목은 매우 저평가. 올해 주도주가 유틸리티·통신이라는 점도 언급. 배당·금리: S&P500 배당수익률이 10년물 국채수익률보다 상당히 높고, 주식은 5~7% 성장 가능하다는 논리. 과거 이런 상황에선 주가 상승 또는 채권 하락(혹은 둘 다)이 나타났다고 언급. 정책·리스크: 완화적 통화정책 지속. 미국 마이너스 금리 가능성은 낮다고 봄(미국 성장률이 그 수준으로 나빠지려면 해외발 큰 충격이 선행돼야 함). 기타: 오바마 행정부 경제 평가에서 거시지표는 좋으나 중하위층 실질임금 정체가 문제라고 지적, 중위임금 성장을 기준으로 평가해야 한다고 주장. 빌 밀러의 레그메이슨 결별 및 LMM 100% 인수 관련 배경 설명.
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welcome to Wall Street week the show of record for long-term investing I'm Anthony scaramucci and I'm Maria bartoo Gary Kaminsky will'll be back next week forget Dow 19,000 are we headed for Dow 20,000 in a year at least one Analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indy says yes but is he right and if he's right how do we get there we turn now to a giant of Finance the way in Bill Miller is the chairman and chief investment officer of lmm we should note that just this past week Bill and leg Mason announced that bill will acquire all of leg Mason's interest in lmm Bill along with companies he controls will Own 100% of lmm Bill welcome to the show thanks Anthony and I want to talk right away about the macroeconomy why don't you tell us a little bit about what you're seeing uh for you the US economy and stocks in general well the the US economy has been broadly on an upward path since the financial crisis I think we saw a payroll number last week that was very strong um and but when people were trying to look at it through the lens they they pointed out that well payroll and unemployment those are lagging indicators but con conveniently forgetting that the leading indicators credit spreads in stocks are are doing great so I think the outlook for the US economy is solid it's among the best in the among the best in the world we have low inflation we have low un low unemployment we have record corporate profits record GDP record household net worth and uh and stock prices are are I think stupidly cheap compared to bonds the Obama Administration is in the news now we're litigating whether or not their policies have been successful in aiding the economy uh some of the detractors are saying that the middle class and the lower middle class have had stagnating wages what is your report card for the Obama economy well you can look at that in many different ways at at a very macro level when when the administration came in we were we' had the worst financial crisis in history and the worst recession since the Great Depression and then eight years later we have as I mentioned record profits low unemployment low inflation so if you look at it just that way it's like it it would be considered you know a marvelous record on the other hand as you point out a large portion of the population has not benefited from from that and I think one of the one of the issues that would be very helpful in this election and future elections if people got away from I'd say those macro things like GDP growth and corporate profits growth and focused on the growth of the median wage in real terms and if they made that their objective that the average person would do better I think it would give us a better way to evaluate the success of those Administrations I'd like to follow up on on on your uh macro story but first bill you got to tell us about the news of the week Bill Miller leaving leg Mason after 35 years uh people want to know what this means how it's going to change your business why the move well technically I haven't been a legon employee for a couple of years uh they merged the subsidiary that I ran lmcm into clearbridge as part of a broader strategy to have fewer managers and bigger and and bigger platforms and trying to get various things like the equity businesses Consolidated so when that happened I had I had the only subsidiary that wasn't 100% under control by leg Mason lmm and so I took that out of leg Mason but they still retained an ownership interest in it and it had been a it been a publicly stated uh goal of Joe Sullivan and the CEO uh to basically clean up some of those loose ends and so this really represents represents that so when you look at the markets today it's I'm struck by what you just said you said that the market is cheap now we've seen a pretty good rally right in in stock prices you still see value and when you say cheap you mean cheap relative interest rates are just cheap overall well there's a couple things that the the market has like many markets there are parts of it that are expensive and parts of it are cheap and so to talk about the market as a whole you're amalgamating all those things so for example I happen to believe that um utilities Consumer Staples Telecom are are ridiculously overpriced and very expensive because they're Bond proxies and they've been a a safe place to be whereas more cyclical names uh more controversial names more perceived risky names are very very cheap so you've got this bifurcated bifurcated Market Market but more broadly you know if you think about the old fed model that Alan Greenspan used to talk about where you look at the F the the return or the yield on the 10-year Treasury and compare it to the earnings yield on the market well and and it was thought that well if the 10-year treasury was was uh higher than the earnings yield then stocks were cheap and if it was lower stocks were expensive well right now the 10year treasury yields 1 and a half% and the the median multip on the S&P 500 is about 16 times so call it you know six uh you know a 6% earnings sheld on the market or 16 times earnings on the market and let's call it close to 70 times earnings on bonds and I think that's that's a spread that is very very wide historically and one that I think will be resolved in favor of equities okay so for our viewers they're not great at math what you basically just did is you took the reciprocal of those two just so that you can make a comparison in terms of what the future cash flows were I'll make it yeah sorry I'll make it even easier the divid in yield on the S&P 500 is now considerably higher than the than the return you get on a 10 year treasury unbel the 10e treasury doesn't grow right will grow 5 to 7% just to further that argument historically when that happens typically bill you get a rise in stocks or a decline in bonds yes or both all right yes there you go so you know nobody expected telecoms and utilities to be the leadership of this Market this year but that is exactly what has led this Market yeah and and and we we we're seeing also very LAX monetary policy um and so do you think that there's a likelihood if possible that there'd be negative rates in the United States I don't see that I think the US economic growth is it's slower than his history obviously but it's not so slow that we would see negative rates you'd have to have a very bad situation probably starting outside the US and and factoring it over here for that to happen we're just getting started Bill Miller stay with us a lot to come Wall Street week we'll be right back
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