저자: Kevin · 외국인
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2022년 12월 14일 FOMC SEP(경제전망요약) 발표를 앞두고 시장 변동성이 커질 것이라 주장. 12월 CPI 근원서비스 0.1%로 긍정적이나 변동성 우려. 연방기금금리 전망(4.6→높아질 가능성, 본인 예상 4.8)이 가장 중요하며, 2023년 점도표 분포에서 5.25% 이상이면 위험. 성장률은 0.5% 상향, 2023년 0.9~1.0% 전망 예상. 시장 하락은 SEP 발표 전 불확실성 회피 때문. 세금손실 수확(tax loss harvesting) 전략도 언급.
다듬은 글
you're going to want to watch this one in full before tomorrow tomorrow is December 14th you're going to want to watch this before 11 A.M because that's when we get a new summary of economic projections this is going to be very critical for the market it's going to be much more critical for the market than this 50 basis point idea because we're going to get a new set of projections from all the members of the fed and we're going to see if the FED is in line with which direction they're going in or if they're scatter shot their scatter shot you could have red flags because scatter shot fed members means a lot of contention and anything's game if they're all game for one direction we want to know what is that direction and what are they potentially seeing so folks let's go ahead and look at the last time we got a summary of economic projections going all the way back to September 21st of this year that doesn't sound like it's that long ago but then again we had October November that just vanished and then maybe like another three weeks in between that that's wild so it's been two months and three weeks all right so we're gonna go ahead and jump on over to these the summary of economic projections start with this very specific table and I want to note something up here first right after I mentioned that this video is brought to you by the expiring coupon code tomorrow PP we extended it for the program so I'm building your wealth remember the most important ones in my opinion real estate investing zero to millionaire most popular bundle is you're a millionaire real estate investing and stocks and psych stocks and psych gets you into my trading challenge as well where we're doing volatility trading on options it's gonna be great uh at least I hope so anyway that's the expectation so check out that coupon code link down below you get all of the buy sell alerts if you're in stocks and psych zero to millionaires getting a bunch of new lectures as well as stocks is getting fundamental analysis lectures coming up later this month so those will be really cool and we extended that coupon code to tomorrow evening all right so what do we have here well first it's worth noting a quick may as well mention that core services and CPI today came in at just point one percent excluding energy and rent this is really good because remember Jerome Powell's you know third concerning area is services and so the fact that core services on the good side rotated down like this really really good this comes in after a 0.4 in October a 0.8 in September a point fourth should be 0.4 before that we did have a zero in July though so this is a number that could be a little volatile so I wanted to mention that but so it's it's good news for now because it's trending down but you know it's been zero before okay so this is what we had last time this is the summary of economic projections from last time and I'm going to point out that probably the most important piece out of all of this I'm gonna pick an orange highlighter here we're going to use orange uh as uh as our most important highlighter and that number is going to be right here down there at the bottom so it is actually the federal funds rate projection that uh there we go that is going to be extremely important the reason that's so important is because in June the last time we got an SCP before September the Fed was only expecting to raise rates up to about 3.8 percent now we have the market anticipating that rates could go as high as five percent and there have been murmurings that the FED might end up stopping at 5.25 maybe 5.5 some even say oh the fed's going to go to six percent although those arguments seem less likely now that inflation has kind of tapered at least in the last two reports so we're probably closer to that five percent number and the Fed was very clear in November that if they had to redo the summary of economic projections they would revise up from 4.8 so I'm going to go out here on a limb and make my prediction that if I were at the Federal Reserve what number I would expect all of these uh factors to come in at so I actually think the fed's going to end up at about 4.8 now that's practically going to be 4.75 I believe but I think that their projection is going to be 4.8 if we get 4.8 it's bullish that's going to be below what the market is expecting right now which is about 4.95 if we get 5 4.9 that's going to be right along expectations anything above that it's going to be a problem now the next number I actually believe we could see a shift down on that's because inflation expectations have broken down we're not seeing this runaway aspect to inflation anymore we're more worried about policy lags and I think that could be bullish for markets to see a downshift here my projection is 3.7 for the 2024 number so this is 2023 in 2024.
so not really getting all the way down in the future but it wouldn't surprise me to see this potentially move down to 2.6 or maybe even 2.5 so that way they're suggesting that they might think that 2025 might be the get back to the longer term where we want to be two and a half percent fed funds right so that way you have an upward revision here but you actually have a downward revision here and that's a way in my opinion that the FED can forecast front loading I think that would send a very reasonable message to markets I don't think this would necessarily move markets ridiculously up or down or move Financial conditions in either direction remember when markets rally and bond yields fall those those are ways that Financial conditions actually loosen and it's a way that the Federal Reserve can can make things a little happier and get people back to spending and manipulate essentially markets so if you're ever curious if there's Market manipulation the legal Market manipulation that occurs every single day is over at the Federal Reserve and I mean Congress kind of gave them that authorization so like it or not it's what happens that's the game we play so another number that I think will be very critical will actually be the expectation for up here change in Real GDP so uh in the last measure they actually thought real GDP might drop to as low as 0.2 percent for the year of 2020.
I actually don't know about that so if you go to the Atlanta fed real now GDP measure it's a lot higher than that I'm going to pull that up in just a moment here let's see five days ago they published their last estimate okay we'll look at this together him so the real GDP from five days ago from for the Atlanta fed estimate came in over here above three percent for Q4 2022 we did have a couple negative Quarters at the beginning of the year and sort of mid mid part of the year uh we the third quarter we bounced a little higher especially with the Atlanta feds real GDP we'll see final numbers and all that but but we were positive in Q3 a point is even though these numbers can get revised if we have a strong Q4 like this we might actually see the FED revise this GDP for 2022 up I I that's a sign that maybe the market actually you know or the economy is not doing as terribly as potentially expected so I would think that this might actually move up I'll use my green color here this might actually move up closer to 0.5 and they might actually be a little bit more concerned now about the lagging effects of policy it might potentially take the economy here down to a 0.9 or maybe a 1.0 for 2023 and I'm I'm okay with the consistency here on the others that's sort of below Trend under that two percent growth on uh you know that's below Trend GDP growth that's what the FED wants they think that's going to drive inflation down it also would not surprise me to see the unemployment rate revised up a little bit for next year but not by much I would not expect a big movement here maybe you get like a 4.5 or something to that effect pce inflation obviously this number is going to get revised up we're probably going to be closer to something like a six percent uh for the end of the year and it's possible that next percent next year could see something like a three I don't think that's going to be very very meaningful I think the most meaningful part out of this SCP is really and I'm going to rank these here in an order of priority I think it's going to be the federal funds rate right here absolutely that terminal rate this is a game changer if we get something well into the fives it's going to be a big problem because that means the FED even though they're they're slowing down on their rate hike cycle is actually suggesting all right let's go 25 25 25 25 for a very very long period of time rather than pausing and potentially March or may a March or may pause would put them somewhere probably around four and a half 4.75 or 5 depending on when they go to 25 which we think will be pretty soon we think they might go 50 25.25 right something like that uh wage 50 would bring us to 4.25 25 would bring us to 4.75 just as an example so uh that's an expectation that's a big deal though again if that's like 5.5 for 2023 if markets are gonna go to crap and this is why to answer the question a lot of people had I answered this also in detail in my course member live stream this morning because a lot of people were wondering Kevin why did the market all of a sudden just go to crap today I I was look looking and really the only explanation was that we're getting a sep tomorrow when we get an SCP trading volumes like people sell okay people sell before you get the sap and you generally buy after this app because you're going from uncertainty to certainty right generally people don't like to buy when there's uncertainty and generally the masses like to buy when they have certainty this statement is good you know you're not going to have another let's see schedule uh fed 2023 you're not going to have another SCP probably until March I don't think you're going to have it in the February meeting but I'm going to find out right now so the February meeting is the first Feb Market calendar on that yeah the next SCP is not going to be until March 22nd that's uh four months in a week from now really Jan Feb March no three months yeah three months in a week from now anyway that's a long time that's a hundred days between the basically between now and the next SCP so for the next quarter you're trading on this chart like your expectations are based on the new thing coming out tomorrow it's a big deal so like is it really a surprise that stocks move down after uh you know in the afternoon today when people realize ah crap we got a sep coming out tomorrow no not a surprise at all now what else is going to be important well I think Unity is going to be important so you'll get range and you'll get central Tendencies here I think Unity is very very important see here even though 4.6 was sort of the expectation for let me uh zoom in over here 4.6 was the expectation for 2023.
the range was raising rates 3.9 to 4.9 percent so that's like the low end and high end the big concern would be if this range says something which it probably will 4.4 I don't think anybody's going to be in the threes anymore 4.4 all the way to potentially six percent like if you see a six handle there oh boy oh boy that could be dirty because that person's voice could get louder and louder so I'd actually say that range is the second most important thing and uh I do think this there are a lot of clues that could be gleaned from GDP and then like big gap really but less so you know their projections here on inflation and Unemployment uh though obviously we're going to look at them I think really what matters to me more is not they're hypothesizing on what the unemployment rate or inflation is going to do what matters more to me is their impression of economic growth and what they're gonna do about it which is the Fed funds right right and then the range of that fed funds rate another way that you could visualize the range of the FED funds rate is called The Dot Plot dot plot's a really big deal because look at this okay this is like really really interesting in my opinion in in 2020 uh two and in 2023 look at what you had very tight 2023 very tight okay you could see those years right here 22-23 right look how tight those boxes are I mean you're really seeing cohesion around that 4.3 to 4.9 level expectation for 2023 right look at how nasty that gets for 2024.
they're all over the map and so I want to see how much cohesion there is go for for this box right here that's going to be a critical one and if we end up getting something like which I don't think we're going to get but let's say we end up getting something like you know some people over here knocking on the door basically uh you know that's that's 5.75 you get something like ah come on iPad you get something over I think it's the iPad not the cables by the way or the dongles because I've tried three dongles and three different HDMI cables iPad come on Apple I get with it anyway uh of course you take it to the Apple Store and they'll be like we cannot re-diagnose the issue Saya it's like effort we'll just deal with the black screen every so often you know what it's an opportunity to take a sip of coffee soak in the information and think about that peepee you know the coupon code expires anyway okay so like if you got something like this okay that right here that would be hell that's hell because that tells you you're gonna go 5.25 to to nearly six percent very very that could be terrible very very very bad um probably more likely I would expect uh more more diffusion so I would guess uh so I'll use orange since that's what I've been using for my guesses for 2023 my guess is uh probably gonna be we're gonna see some folks some doves over here what do we got here we have three three six six times three we got 18 dots to plot okay so I wouldn't be surprised to see something kind of like this where you really have that six I'm gonna go with like eight eight Dots here three low then that puts me at about 11 that gives me seven more dots to plot uh I I do think I'm gonna get some I might see like a one over here uh no not with the last two inflation reads you're probably gonna get more of a one over here maybe two over here that puts me at 14 gives me four more dots uh and then I'll go five and a quarter a little heavier and then three over here that's kind of my assumption of what you're going to see where you have that sort of central tendency around that 4.8 roughly aligning with what I wrote on the sheet but I do think you're gonna see some bias into that that five and a quarter range uh obviously if this skews more at the top it's going to be a little problematic but but that's uh those are some of the X expectations yourself so what do you do you know um well like I think the the there are a few things you can do uh number one this is a very interesting time for tax loss harvesting because you are running up against uh Q4 earnings right so Q4 earnings reports are going to come out third week of January to beginning of February then you're gonna have a Fed meeting and if you have bad earnings and then you have fear of the FED meeting in my opinion you could be in a position where you sell now you buy back in during that fear of earnings and the Fed that really gives you this week to tax loss Harvest then you'll also have another CPI report though that comes out I believe it's on the 12th of January you could Google that one really quick it's either the 12th or the 14th it's one of those uh and uh I'm pretty sure it's 12.
that that you know could potentially set off a rally again because that CPI report is going to be like three weeks distance from the FED where I see the problem the reason we sold off on today's rally is because you had the sep coming out the day after uh CPI so it's like even though CPI was good you can't really rally yeah it's Jan 12.
okay sorry yes uh anyway um yeah so so there is that potential for tax loss harvesting one of the interesting things that you could do is you could potentially move from single stocks you have losses on to an actively managed ETF so that way if that actively managed ETF runs that active ETF manager can rebalance for you without passing along tax implications to you check with your CPA on that uh you know obviously uh it's it depends on how the ETF manager runs the fund but uh but yeah if you have large gains on a stock within an ETF the ETF manager can trade that I am an active ETF manager right but an ETF manager can trade that for a different set of stocks and and potentially not have a taxable event that's really cool it's like trading they call them like units and baskets and the ETF it's weird but it's really awesome because it's a way you could rebalance a portfolio without having those taxable games gains that you might have in your portfolio or like ah this one stock ran so much but dang it I don't want to sell it because I don't want to pay taxes at the end of the year right anyway so that's an interesting strategy right now uh another thing obviously staying at a margin uh you know keeping up the cash working hard or grinding more it's frustrating it's hard but like that's called recession you know it's it just sucks no nobody's having a great time and even if you're killing it in some trades uh it's uh it's so volatile it's dangerous out there and that's why I think our trading challenge is going to take a very conservative approach to to milking some some uh you know it's technically active income but what'll feel like roughly passive income so we'll we'll see what we can pull off anyway we're excited about that so uh check out those links down below I'm building a real
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