저자: Kevin · 외국인
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마이크로스트래티지(MSTR)가 0% 전환사채 30억 달러를 발행한 배경을 분석. 보유 비트코인(약 25만 2천 개, 평가액 약 240억 달러 추정)이 자산의 대부분이며, 주가는 순자산가치(NAV)의 약 4.5배로 고평가라고 봄. 본업 소프트웨어는 매출 감소·적자로 성장 근거가 약함. 전환사채 구조는 비트코인 콜옵션+청산 우선권으로 해석. 비트코인이 지속 하락하면 신규 자금 조달이 막히고 2027~2030년 만기 도래 시 주식 매도 압력이 생길 수 있다고 경고. 안전 완충선으로 약 35,000달러, 경계선으로 5만 달러를 제시. 영상 말미에 자사 부동산 투자 상품 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
can you believe micro strategy just raised $3 billion in debt and they pay 0% in interest you might be thinking to yourself that's stupid who would give micro strategy money with 0% interest well $3 billion worth of people did and in this video you're going to learn why people have so much faith in micro strategy and why that worst case scenario might not be coming as soon as some people think you're going to learn a whole lot about how the financial system works buckle up subscribe hey everyone me Kevin here we need to talk about micro strategy because what's going on with Bitcoin and micro strategy is remarkable but a lot of folks were expecting myself included that Bitcoin was going to hit 100,000 this weekend I thought we were going to get to our 102k level but we topped out at about 995 on Friday and now we're sitting at around 96,000 now obvious ly that sounds like a lot I mean that's $4,000 of a swing almost right three and a half uh but it really only represents like a 3 and a half to 4% swing it's like sort of like the daily fluctuation of any normal stock it's not a big deal but a lot of folks are wondering what's going on with micro strategy and how does that particular stock boom is it a fundamentals thing is it a long-term thing is it like what because after all micro strategy in the last year is up 71% 711 yeah that's pretty crazy a year ago today November 24th they were selling for about 52 bucks right now they're selling for $421 per share which is literally down 18% from the peak 3 days ago this is crazy okay 3 days ago this was selling for about $115 more per share at roughly $535 now it's at$ 421 although who knows maybe it'll Skyrocket again when the Market opens up for Black Friday or or you'll get a Black Friday discount sale who knows but a lot of folks are wondering like Kevin what is actually going on here like what do they actually have on their balance sheet so that's the first thing I did is I went over to their last filing and you have to do some adjusting here because it we believe that they hold about 252,000 Bitcoin before their actual Bond offering that they just did so that does make things a little bit more complicated because when you look at their balance sheet you don't want to take digital assets for that $6.8 billion and assume that 6.8 is still worth 6.8 if you divide that 6.8 billion do by 252,000 Bitcoin they spent basically their cost basis is somewhere around $27,000 per Bitcoin this means you actually have to multiply how much they say they have on their balance sheet of 6 .8 billion in digital assets by about three and a half to get to today's pricing which means they actually have closer to 24 billion dollar of Bitcoin it's a lot like I'm like dang man you know we just did this um you know robotics uh and and Ai and space exploration VC uh we've got uh TBD but I think we might be closing that within the next two weeks and we've still got some slots we've already raised over 7 figures for it if you want to learn more about that go to roboh hack.
a but I believe that's going to close in about 10 days it'll be about a week before the house hack offering but anyway uh you can learn about that I'll just link it down below or it's roboh hack. a but what's remarkable here think about this for a moment is they show this on the balance sheet at a cost of $27,000 why because in order for them to increase what's on their balance sheet and show it to you correctly they'd have to take a gain but if you take a gain you have to pay tax on it so that's the cool thing about having appreciating assets is you don't actually have to pay the taxes on it right anyway so so I mean they've got $24 billion uh of of Bitcoin that's why I was joking I'm like oh you know we just raised seven figures for the VC and I'm like oh this is so cool raiseed seven figures for the VC and then I'm like bro they just raised $3 billion and what are they doing with it I buy Bitcoin wait so they they don't have to go like deal with tenants and toilets or like interview robotics companies or like deal with startups or other people nah this my Bitcoin man and I'm like damn why I got freaking easy okay I want put I don't want to you know Michael sailor has been working at this company micro strategy for you know uh a quarter of a century or more so I'm not trying to discredit work but it just it's kind of like all right all right anyway so so y'all got 24 billies you just raised another three billies and what are you going to do with that three billies well you're literally going to buy Bitcoin with it well you say and General Corporate purposes and you're filing on it they're going to buy Bitcoin okay got it so let's now say they have $27 billion in assets how much debt do they have uh well they've got uh on their balance sheet long-term debt uh and current liabilities all that good stuff got about seven s and a half some of these are deferred tax liabilities and otherwise so not that big of a deal let's just go ahead and say 7 and A2 now including the 3 billion more that they just raised here okay cool so you've got 27 billion in total assets minus 7.5 billions of debt puts us about 20 billies of actual Equity so then I look at what's the stock trading for and that is about uh $85 billion so that means they are trading for about 4 and a half times how much Bitcoin they have and then this is where we have to look and say okay well I mean their valuation shouldn't only be the book Book value like an actual operating real estate company for example like Invitation Homes you know they don't do wedge deals but they trade for like two 2.2 times book so you know you take 100,000 let's say as a house uh $50,000 of debt okay you got 50 of equity they'll trade for 100,000 because there's actually like an operating company that could go buy more real estate in otherwi and that's like your bare minimum on an asset company right that's not even big growth at like an Invitation Homes but they're trading here at about 4 and A2 times book uh you know super micro was trading for less than two times book as an AI play last week that's why I bought the crap out of it I'm like less than two P times book that's a freaking steal for an air related no guarantees so I'm seeing them I'm like all right okay y'all trading for like four times so what do you do then because maybe maybe y'all do something that that I don't know makes a lot of money uh and so I went over to their income statement and the first thing I noticed is that revenues have basically been declining you know the could be for a while I mean not just the last three months last nine months but the kesc letter put a great little chart out and they show just declining revenues for for their products for a while that's not to say that their products aren't worthy but usually when you have a company that is taking a net loss mostly because their operating expenses well exceed their gross profit by well a lot now some of it it's because they take impairment charges but even if you didn't take the impairment charges you'd still be losing money because you're spending more money on the operations for this you know software company that you have than you're actually making and growth is declining so you're a money losing company where growth is declining that makes it really really hard for you to get multiple in software like companies will be okay like markets rather will let your stock Skyrocket if you're losing money if you have growth you know like a snowflake oh my God growth you now people pay for growth even if you're losing money uh which is also blows my mind as to why pelaton stock is doing decently in the last few months because they they're losing money and they really don't have growth I think people just look and they're like oh it's less than $10 for Paton I have a paleton bye like that's sort of like the due diligence that exists out there anyway so uh all right so so we're trading for four and a half times book we don't really have a rationale to give this thing you know an acceleration here in valuation for the fundamental business because well it's losing money and it's declining in growth so why do we have a bond offering of $3 billion and how does this actually work like who would buy a bond offering for micro strategy and what does this potentially mean if things go oopsy dupsies well first of all they're issuing a $3 billion Bond offering with a 0% interest rate that's crazy to me a 0% interest rate uh and it's due in 2029 and it will not convert unless the stock is trading for more than $672 40 per share okay wait a minute this seems a little weird help me understand this Kevin so if I buy $11,000 of micro strategy bonds they're going to pay me $0 correct they're going to pay you 0 okay so what do I get out of it well well if micro strategy goes to let's say $1,000 a share in the future your $1,000 will convert into shares at 672 that's a 55% premium from where we sit today and then you'll get the difference so you'll get that upside that extra you know 30 40% or whatever you would get that upside so it's almost like a call option and that's why they're not paying you any interest now what's kind of weird weird about it is if you try to buy a call option instead you start realizing the because the volatility is so high the premiums are even more overpriced so even though you're paying a 55% premium on a bond you'd be paying way more probably like a 70 to 100% premium on long-term call options that don't even go out to 2029 so people are thinking hey let me park money into these Bitcoin bonds basically uh and you get a few benefits number one they're preferred so if the company micro strategy goes bankrupt the first debt that gets paid back not the shareholders it's the bond holders so the bond holders are going to get paid back first if micro strategy goes bankrupt okay got it so you got liquidation preference so imagine that liquidation preference on basically an option so if the company like doesn't trade for over $672 in the future technically micro strategy needs to pay these Bond holders back so they'll give them the cash back they'll refinance they'll do some new bonds whatever or sell some stock whatever they need to do so if they do that then really what they're do because these are convertible bonds really what they're doing is they're saying hey do you want a call option on bitcoin you start making money after $672 if it's less than that you get your money back if we go bankrupt you get first priority you get your money getting your money back and if we go to $22,000 a share or whatever you get all of the difference between 672 and 2000 okay for a lot of people that actually makes sense cuz you're kind of wondering like who would buy these bonds at a 55% premium why well that's why because it's basically a call option that doesn't have Theta Decay and it has liquidation preference okay wait a minute that's actually when you put it that way kind of interesting yes it is and not only do you have that longer expiration time frame but you can buy it in a 401k or something else else so convertible bonds are actually very interesting because of these features that they have they're very complicated to understand and I'm about to go through how things could actually go wrong with a convertible Bond but I want to mention this is the similar structure that we Ed for house hack except we made it even more desirable for our investors when people invest in house hack they get over at house.com they get a 5% coupon and we pay that out monthly so every month you get a check for 5% you know divided by 12 obviously for the year uh of what you invested said house.com and rather than telling you you get the upside of the stock at a 55% premium like micro strategy trading you know for 400 something now and and it doesn't actually uh convert to shares until 672 and some date in the future we're basically saying hey we'll give you today's valuation no premium and the low end of today's valuation too so in other words we think our hope is that a house hack which isn't public obviously can IPO at some point in the future and you get all of that upside and you got paid a yield so that's just something to when you're thinking about micro strategy compare because the pros and cons are actually similar with the fact though that micro strategy charges you a 55% premium although they do have a much more volatile asset Bitcoin that they're buying we're raising bonds to go buy real estate that basically yields us you know depending on the real estate we buy probably in average average of 4 to 5% something like that we use that uh and we get a good deal wedge deals which helps us pay out a yield and that lets us grow our asset base which lets us grow the company and become a really awesome part uh of uh frankly what we want to be is America's best landlord create the best homes and then uh eventually uh turn those back over to the community not just helping people with rentals in the meantime but but long-term ownership too so where does Micro strategy go bad well micro strategy could potentially go bad if the valuation of Bitcoin fell dramatically now the problem with Bitcoin uh and and some people see it as a feature so I just want to be transparent here I'm not taking sides I just want to be clear the problem with Bitcoin is that um because it's an asset class that does well when it does well it does poorly when it does poorly now I know that sounds like a duh but I want you to think about this for a moment when Real Estate is rented out as a comparison this is very important when Real Estate is rented out and the market Falls as long as the tenants still paying rent it doesn't matter as long as you're in your portfolio 90% of your tenants are still paying rent or 95% are still paying rent it doesn't matter what the market value is like your rent is not predicated on the market value of the real estate with Bitcoin what sustains Bitcoin is not rent or company earnings which does have benefits you know you don't get sometimes the volatility what sustains the price of Bitcoin is Bitcoin being bought so on the upswing as companies like micro strategy take $33 billion and go buy more Bitcoin you push Bitcoin up more which then induces more people to buy Bitcoin in fact we have had greater flows into Bitcoin related funds thanks KC letter again uh you know just this last week than we had going into GameStop during the GameStop Euphoria which is is crazy okay yes many call it a bubble some even call it a Ponzi because you're taking this money that you've raised and now you're buying more except you're accelerating the value of what you're buying which again is also different from buying real estate like you buying a house in a neighborhood and there are 10,000 other homes is it is it going to jack up the prices of all these homes whereas when you're taking $3 billion dollar of Bitcoin you're probably eating up all the sell order book basically and you're driving it up more so the issue is once Bitcoin starts falling we don't know when that will be it could hit 250,000 first to get a million for I have no idea okay but once it starts actually sustainably falling it becomes very hard to sell and I don't mean like putting it in an order to sell I mean sell to people it's very difficult to sell a retired couple hey uh you know only 1% of the world owns Bitcoin and you should too before everybody else gets in want to buy some Bitcoin and like I usually the only due diligence that's done here by the way is uh they look at the chart all right well what's the performance been over the last year it's doubled oh yes I'll buy some okay now how does it work well it's down 30% over the last year but don't worry it's just class it'll go back up yeah we're going to think on that one it's like what selling something that goes up is easy you don't want to be the person telling somebody that something that's going up is going to go down because nobody wants to hear that because that means people are losing money but what happens when it actually does go down well then it becomes nearly impossible to sell uh to to new people to get inflows because the recent history is bad this then does the opposite of creating the order book of fomo which we have now which is people are only buying at higher and higher prices because they want to be part of the game it creates the order book of fear which is micro strategy can't raise money anymore people are selling and now you have this sort of self sustained decline obviously that's you know just Bitcoin as an asset class if uh a fall in Bitcoin is conjoined with a fall in the stock market well we could create a recession but that's really a topic for a different video we don't want to get so broad here the point is once you actually get a sustained correction again it does you are going to slow down your adoption of Bitcoin and that is going to substantially reduce the volatility of options and micro strategy stock or whatever that might be a better time to consider buying options or actually buying into Bitcoin so I'm not here to say say like oh when it goes down it's going to go down forever there will always be better times to buy it's simply to say that now that we have an understanding of all this we have to consider micro strategy again so what happens when micro strategy potentially gets into a place where they have to start paying back their bonds their convertibles but they cannot pay them back okay this is a problem so when you have $7 billion of convertibles and uh your stock starts falling then you're not going to be able to convert the bonds to shares instead you will have to pay them back but if your stock keeps falling it makes it very difficult for you to refinance those bonds to get new loans new bonds to replace the olds uh and in that case you start running into potential problems where you have to issue shares on the stock market to pay for your first bonds to pay them off so you're not in default that's fine it works for a while as long as your stock price still has something to it but what happens is your next bonds expire in 2027 and there's only about a billion dollars of them then you've got about a billion in 2028 and you've got about 785 in 2030 uh you've got uh and then you got someon you got about 631 in in 30 sorry 600 in 2031 you've you got 786 in 32 and then of course you just added the three for 2029 so when this really becomes a problem isn't actually really until well likely 2027 if and when Bitcoin was a lot cheaper and all of a sudden they couldn't pay off that billion dollars in bonds I think that's one of the reasons why they've actually been smart to start moving these bonds down in in further out in time you know they're going 27 28 the latest three bills that they did are in 2029 this is smart the biggest risk factor is not going to be near-term for micro strategy there's going to be near-term fluctuation it's actually what happens at the end of the decade what if you're at a place where the Bitcoin Euphoria has has died down a little bit and now you're below cost that would be problematic let's say their cost you know their average cost bases would be somewhere around 35,000 once they keep adding more Bitcoin whatever let's say their average cost is somewhere around 35,000 and Bitcoin goes to I don't know $20,000 I'm just making an extreme example here I I know many people are oh my gosh I buy the dip out of that great that's fine but but what if you're buying the dip doesn't help because you don't have Micro strategy buying okay and now the asset trades sideways for 3 or 4 years well the big risk here and you can see how far down the road it is but the big risk here is the asset trades sideways there's little liquidity for micro strategy they need to dump shares to actually be able to pay off their debt so their stock valuation goes down down their earnings from their software business aren't helping them because there are no earnings and they're not growing the earnings so all of a sudden towards the end of the decade you could be in a place where this stock has a lot of problems if Bitcoin is not worth more Bitcoin just consistently needs to stay above $35,000 would be my my safety buffer there uh which honestly you've got a lot of room between now and then uh you're at 35 now it would have to fall somewhere around 63% so that that I mean it can happen you you get another crypto winter it seems like there's insulation here but I'm just saying I if for whatever reason we start trending in that direction uh keep that in mind micro strategy is going to have the oopsies between 27 and 2030 if Bitcoin gets back below you know maybe write that down 50k so put put a little alert if Bitcoin under 50 and date after 2027 micro strategy starts having maybe oopsies but between now and then your debts just aren't coming due with this company so really this company I mean Bitcoin could go down to $20,000 and this Bitcoin or this company doesn't have any problems because they're not paying any yield on their bonds anyway pretty much I think they just paid off their yeah they paid off their 75 yields uh oh they're 2028 cost them 62 2030s 62 20 31s cost 87 and their 2032 is cost 2.25 Okay so so they've got a little bit of interest expense but it's so freaking nominal they could sell you know a few Bitcoin and cover it basically they're probably going to be okay until their bonds start coming due and you would need Bitcoin to collapse so in other words you know a lot of people it makes sense why people are looking at these these 2029 bonds for micro strategy because they are probably insulated between now and certainly until their next bonds come due 27 28 29 uh and you would need Bitcoin to fall substantially in which case if you thought Bitcoin was going to fall substantially you wouldn't buy the bonds anyway so this is why uh when we ask why would somebody why would people spend $3 billion on bonds offering 0% here's your answer so hopefully this is a useful look into what the heck is going on at micro strategy if you found this helpful subscribe to the channel check out Robo hack. check out househ hack.com for convertible bonds that actually pay Y and uh bye
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