저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라가 Optimus와 Cybercab을 묶은 약 6만 달러 번들을 출시할 수 있다는 머스크 발언을 계기로, 2030년경 100만 대 판매와 Uber급 운영 시 주당 최대 약 364달러(현재 대비 상승) 가치가 나온다고 시나리오 계산. 단, 가격 경쟁·경기침체·자사 차량 자기잠식 리스크 제시. 다음 경기침체 시 주가 하락 가능성을 언급하며 저점 분할매수와 마진 사용 자제를 조언. 영상 날짜는 2024-11-22.
다듬은 글
could Tesla hit $1,337 per share let's talk whoa Elon mus just announced that soon you might be able to buy an Optimus robot and a cyber Camp bundle almost like a bundle coupon for frankly less than $60,000 now that's actually pretty exciting especially since I just bought a cyber truck it was a cyber Beast which cost me about1 15 $1,000 which means I could have almost bought two Optimus robots and two cyber cabs but then again maybe the joke's on me anyway hey everyone me Kevin here I want to just jump right into it let's figure out what does this mean for the freaking stock because this could be really really exciting now I I haven't done all of this and I I want to run some of this with you so we can see it together after we run some numbers uh what I want to do is talk about why I think Robotics are going to be huge in the next 5 years and they have a lot to do with a recession stay tuned there's good news and bad news in that and I'll give you a little update on the Cyber truck all right ready here we go so uh first of all let's just throw the bundle in here and let's quickly take a look at elon's uh tweet or post on X uh it is the following it is a quote tweet of somebody saying we will be able to buy both of these products for around $60,000 love the look of it by the way really attractive uh Elon replies we need to reach 1 million production uh units per year basically first but yes long term okay so acknowledges the possibility but yes we've got a ways to go so what is this worth to us uh when this happens let's just put a placeholder in let's just say this happens by 2030 let's go 60,000 for the bundle right and we're going to go with a million of these bundles I'm calling them bundles all right $60,000 bundles I just deleted everything else okay I'm not I'm not putting any you know actual Robo tax revenues in here whatever I'm just assuming these are sold these are the sold units all right so for the sold units we're going to run them at a 20% margin and uh I'll throw some leases in here as well just to get some lease accounting and uh we'll throw our margin in there we'll throw our services in here whatever all right fine so I put 10% in for Opex I put a tax rate in here of about 19% that gives us about uh 5.4 billion in net income this should be pretty logical because if you have revenue of about 60 billion 60,000 time 1,000 uh you got revenues of about 66 80% margin uh minus some other costs for leases servicing uh for operating expenses you know actually running the business whatever it might be note I do put some Services Revenue in here as well well though most of that is spent you end up with somewhere around expenses of almost $60 billion which again brings you down to a profit of roughly 11% okay so they make 60 billies Kevin got it they bring 6.6 to the bottom line then they pay some taxes fantastic what does it mean for the stock well just divide it by the number of shares outstanding which will then give you a158 of earnings per share which if you multiply that by about a 50 PE ratio uh which is about a 1.67 PEG ratio at a 30% growth rate for Tesla which they would probably be at if they were selling Optimus and and Robo taxis you'd be at about 80 bucks 80 bucks a share which is pretty cool ignore that little note there for Uber but that's not the fun part let's now say they were able to pull off an Uber okay first what we're going to do is how many many Uber drivers are there okay they have 7.8 million uh Uber drivers around you know your active active Uber drivers which is crazy 7.8 million that's a lot uh now obviously a rooc cab is going to be able to drive say four times as long as a maybe even five times as long as the average hours that an Uber driver drives let's actually Google that average hours an Uber driver Works let's just just see okay they usually work about 12 to 19 hours a week well that's 35 okay well that's that's more of what they're trying to do is get a rough average there 91% of Uber drivers work less than 40 hours per week however everything can vary all right let's say the average Uber driver Works 20 hours per week all right well Robo tax is going to have uptime of 90% of 24 hours a daytimes 7 of about 15 50 hours a week which divided by 20 it's worth about call it seven I'm going to round down to be conservative a robo taxi is worth about seven Uber drivers so let's just go extreme here for a moment let's say we can replace all of those 7 million Uber drivers by keeping 1 million Robo taxi and Optimus bundles for ourselves you know the Optimus we could license out to factories or or whatever and the rooc cabs we can Uber out basically let's then just take their quarterly net income at Uber of $2.6 billion and annualize it so 2612 * 4 is about $10 billion of potential net that's already net I don't even need to put operating expenses in there or anything because we've quite frankly already done that uh so so this is just an extra Callie 10 billion of net all right let's go on down to the net section here and uh all we're going to do is we're going to add to this1 billion I'll throw it in right here 10 10 million 10 billion oops remember uh spreadsheets do not like commas but I write the commas in just to make sure I have enough zeros and then delete the commas there you go if you add that $10 billion of Revenue in because you've kept a million cyber cabs which drive seven times as much as Robo taxis you can be looking at $396 cents of earnings alone from keeping a million uh well selling a million bundles and then keeping 1 million cyber cabs for yourself you know this might take an extra year or two but look at the value of this $200 that alone is worth $200 so it goes to show you them trying to replace an Uber makes a lot of money but the the even more insanely remarkable part which I'm just not even going to go this insane is Uber's just providing the software you're actually also replacing the human labor look at this for a moment revenues at Uber $ 11 billion the costs of Revenue a lot of that is the employee $6.7 billion do even if you could capture half of that back because of price compression in the market or whatever you're taking in another $3 billion potentially in quarterly income times four that's another 12 billion you know there there are a lot of risk to this but if I now add in another 12 billion to that number all of a sudden I get to look at this on just selling 1 million Robo taxes and Optimus robots I'm at about 80 bucks a share however if I can replace Uber with 17th of the vehicles and I just have a million Robo taxis on the road I go up to about $200 per share as well as selling a million bundles if I can now capture 50% of what the workers charging for my robot I go up another $166 to $364 per share folks that's $364 per share on top of the cars Tesla sells today the FSD the energy Revenue whatever else this is just Optimus and robotaxi so add on top of that the other $300 or whatever you you have this potential longer term you know double if Tesla pulls us off or even much more than that you know I can see people saying you know Kevin why so bearish now obviously there are some limits to this right okay let's now talk about some of the limits so we don't want to be poor pure pure one directional here okay number one recession on robotics okay we got to talk about that then we got to talk about price compression in robotaxi uh is volume better than service provider right like with these Uber numbers I'll just hit that one first really quickly uh with Uber numbers you want to be Uber uh and the owner of the vehicles like the the numbers are good the margins are great uh the the margins are great just being the app but they're amazing if you can partner in the human income replacement mostly because you only need one rooc cab for every say seven human Uber drivers because these cars are driving seven times as much as the average Uber driver driving you know four um 20 hours a week okay so so this is great the problem is price compression could kill this so if price compression reduces how much money in Uber can make then it reduces how much money Tesla can make because there's competition uh speed of service uh will drive people uh to whatever app uh is fastest basically outside of the Tesla loyalist Community which does mean there is huge value in just selling the pickaxe right right making the rooc cab is like making the pickaxe you're not going gold mining you're just conservatively making the pickaxe all right well let's go back to our spreadsheet for a moment and let's just remove all this optimism that we're going to keep uh all of these uh these units ourselves right so if I remove that I'm back to 80 bucks and let's say this becomes so popular that longterm we're actually selling you know 5 million of these vehicles uh and Optimus bundles per year just totally possible especially if the technolog is really killing it that alone is worth $400 on top of what the company's currently doing with energy or you know with with people who still want to drive their own cars for whatever reason it's a whole another business right anyway that's bullish but what about this recession talk uh and then we got to talk Kevin CT so interestingly a recession on robotics uh will not cause a recession like robotics won't uh but robotics plus AI in my opinion uh will prolong any recession and the reason for that is I think what you're going to find is uh either soft Landing or recession layoffs will happen uh new hiring even in the face of stimulus so in other words even if the government's printing money which they will again they're lowering rates whatever uh will be slow so in other words new hiring is in my opinion likely to slow down because companies will bias towards hey existing employees can you can you work with an Optimus robot and get this done can you work with AI and get this done basically you are replacing the need for labor longer term unemployment may be normally closer to 10% than 3% we might never see 3% again because of Robotics now while Tesla seems like it is basically the only Mass manufacturer that could probably pull off Mass making Optimus robots or Robocat ABS outside of China it is worth considering that there are going to be a lot of startup Acquisitions for robotics uh AI uh probably nuclear energy or green energy uh and and really anything around uh making a human more efficient a lot of companies like apple Amazon Google I don't know that they have their own robotics plays yet and so I think there are a lot of startups that are going to be right for acquisition if I'm right uh that the next recession or soft Landing will be prolonged by robotics the mag 7 will basically realize they must invest in robotics to keep up not just language learning models actual robotics obviously the language learning models could potentially be within in uh the robots the the the training that we're doing for AI will you know help the vision of these robots but that probably makes some areas of the startup and Venture Capital markets more desirable because you're really in in an environment where some of these companies are trading for $500 million a billion dollars or whatever in the private space Tesla's trading for a trillion dollars you know you're a to buy shares of some of these small companies for 1,000 the cost now obviously the risk is a lot higher so you want to diversify your Investments don't put all your eggs in one basket so to speak uh but uh you know the potential of a 1020 X seems to be a lot higher at some of these other smaller plays uh you know again when I say like oh yeah Tesla might double people are like why are you so bearish well really just law of large numbers at some point making too many rooc cabs will actually cannibalize your existing vehicle production business where you know maybe you're M you were making 3 million normal cars per year but now you're going to go you know that's going to go down as your cyber caps ramp up so you're kind of self- cannibalizing for a while which isn't great but longer term if you could sustain a valuation as we have here just from Optimus and cyber cab and I don't even have energy in here well that does create some excitement that doesn't mean the stock isn't going to go down I think the Stock's probably going to go down in the next recessionary cycle and I think you're going to have plenty of opportunities to buy the dip on it but I would give some word words of advice uh and and these are you know a lot of these are either from lessons uh that I've seen other people make mistakes on or even just makes mistakes I've made myself but number one uh I I think this is just fair advice for everybody and then I want to give you that cybertruck update um be cautious of using margin using margin the reason is when a stock goes down and you're exposed in margin what you're doing is you're amplifying the risk of going bankrupt and ruining everything that you're building whatever it is that you're building maybe you're not building anything so you have to be very very very cautious of using margin ideally you just don't use a margin at all if you are it's it's for cash purposes or real estate purposes and it's a fraction of the of a percent uh like the stock would have to or you know 99% for you to get margin called or something all right so be cautious of using margin uh be patient uh there will be plenty of dips enabling you to increase your allocation to Tesla uh you know I I always like I look at this I go for me Tesla seems like something I I'd really like to have around that 15 to 20% uh in a portfolio uh really post post soft Landing post recession you could sort of build that up during the turbulence that's coming during that time I'm not convinced that things are going to be straight up solely because Trump is in office for Tesla and I think that the EV tax credit still hurts Tesla the loss of that that is uh but I think that a way to get there is start very small you know three to 4% uh and then buy the dips your average cost basis uh might be substantially uh lower that way no guarantees so something to think about oh now what does this mean near term for the stock price well it depends a recession kills valuations for everything and it gives you really good buying opportunities but if this is true that whatever next recession occurs actually accelerates the adoption of Robotics te Tesla after the next recession will be $1,000 plus stock over maybe even $1,500 but you're you might have to get through the next recession first now as far as my cybertruck uh few updates one it's awesome uh the thing's really great it's very enjoyable to drive I actually find myself driving it more than I have it on autopilot just because it's fun to drive that's probably just because it's sort of honeymoon period And I think the car thinks it's a model 3 but it's way bulkier or like a model y so like you can kind of feel when it's taking turns it's like okay yeah you don't even realize how wide you are like you don't even realize your size sir uh oh well so that's something to keep in mind but otherwise fantastic car really nice to have all the space love the little under cybertruck uh like under bed storage in the back that's great for putting stuff uh and then it not just all sloshing around in the bed that's really functional and the frunk is great too I can throw like my dry cleaning in the frunk it's like the perfect size or a golf bag it's great anyway uh hey if uh if I haven't already mentioned it I don't think I have make sure you get your Alpha report go to meetkevin.com Alpha get your Alpha report every day again we'll see you soon
Comments 0