저자: FXEvolution진행자 · 외국인
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2022년 3월 2일 장 마감 리뷰. 연준 파월의 25bp 금리인상 시사 후 시장 혼조. 원자재(유가·곡물·석탄) 급등을 경계하며 포물선 상승 후 급락 가능성 언급. 장단기 금리 역전 우려, 지수(S&P500·나스닥·다우)는 저항선 부근 횡보, 비트코인 44,000달러 저항 관찰. 테슬라·엔비디아는 기술적 저항/지지 레벨 중심 분석, 방산·사이버보안 관심 표명.
다듬은 글
hello everybody and welcome back to another video and the key levels that you need to be looking at we've got markets hitting resistance across the board and we just saw the fed and jerome powell come out and basically point towards 25 basis point rate hike the problem is that the fed can't control this supply side so they've got a problem here with these commodities and that could be set to rock the markets with big news soon ahead so stay tuned as we go through everything that's coming up because there's a lot of high alert news that's about to drop see you soon so welcome back to our daily show where we cover off on the market close here for the second of march 2022 and if you like anything with stocks cryptos or commodities please remember subscribe we cover it all here on the show daily smash the like button as well if you do get value out of the video here we've got a sea of green for the market close and we'll go through that in just a minute but the big news for the day was obviously pal testifying from the fed and saying hey we're going to raise rates only by 25 basis points that's 0.25 percent for march it pretty much is locked in now there were a few things he said he said we expect it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate at our meeting later this month however he then said the near-term effects of the u.s economy of the invasion of ukraine and the ongoing war the sanctions and the events to come remain highly uncertain so really what's he saying uncertainty uncertainty uncertainty use all the tools use all the tools use all the tools i mean it's like a broken clock if he was like reading an audible book and that audible book was game of thrones you'd fall asleep by the first chapter so anyway we're into the markets what's going on and how did the markets react to this well they reacted initially incredibly positively you can see here where he actually mentioned the 25 basis points bam straight back up it basically went from flat to down to one percent up immediately and it slowly churned higher by the end of the day the problem is is that this is not going to solve a lot of the inflation problems it's not really going hard like i might have preferred the fed did but of course i'm not the one making the policy making here and they haven't really gone hard so you're seeing commodities react and they're just kind of going out of control again things like oil which we'll take a look at soon just really just moving up and it's gone parabolic so we need to talk about that soon but look 10 was down the most that was the solar index it's been leading obviously it's one we do like at the moment but it was been leading and it weakened and look at this look at this xme basically we had metals and mining moving very heavily towards the bullish side financials recovered here which is surprising because of course only 25 basis points but overall the fed was doing its thing as per usual and then semiconductors were up 3.27 the problem is going to lie in the fact that we've hit a resistance on the technical analysis but before we get into all of the market analysis let's just talk about these inflection points in the past and this was shared in our discord community and if you're not in the discord community jump on in there at least get in the public one we've got almost 7 000 people in there now which is awesome and there's plenty of great information that's shared on the daily including everything to do with indices stocks and of course everything else so the p e ratio very interesting that we are currently at where we were before the 2020 obviously crash that occurred the 10-year treasury yield sitting about 1.8 in comparison and it's just interesting to see these ford pes at around similar ratios so is there more to come to the downside look there certainly could be and a lot of it just comes to the data now because the fed are basically being weak with their policy and that will end up driving through to the markets especially if we continue to see inflation accelerate which could certainly happen here with some of the readings we're going to start getting the average recession or average pullbacks in markets please remember there's a difference between being a trader and investor and right now you're seeing an average of the pullbacks remember between s p 500 corrections since 1965 if it didn't turn out to be a recession or something like that usually the s p 500 wouldn't get under 15 to 20 percent so it's a good time if you're looking at picking up longer term investments and you have a bullish scenario for the longer term then it's still a decent time in these markets they haven't exactly moved up they're just hovering around the key resistance and we'll talk about that soon we've also talked about midterm election years heaps of times this is data from 1946 to now and what sometimes you do see and this is i think if we see the breakout you sometimes have this bullish march april may period and then it tends to actually be interesting here often weakness and this is during the democratic year very strange here isn't it so there has been weakness in the past that comes straight after that and this was a general kind of concept some type of strength coming through march into april may and then a possible weakness into the rest of the year the whole stuff with the ukraine does make this a little bit tougher and i think also with the fed it makes it tougher as well because the fed's not really doing anything they're kind of letting it sort itself out and that could be the best policy i mean we'll find out us two year versus ten year moved closer towards the inversion point we do not want that to invert if that inverts it's the massive canary in the coal mine you do not want that to occur because if it happens it's basically predicting a recession it's very good at doing so it's just usually a little bit early in terms of things that have inverted obviously the 20 30 year bond yields here they continue to be inverted not a good sign in terms of the markets and that often is a bit of a precursor of problems we saw that happen though in november so it just continues to be inverted at this point vicks dropped throughout the session it dropped from around 34 down to 30 as we got some clarity from the fed really think of markets this way if there's uncertainty they like to go down if there's some form of certainty even if it's not that good news they like to go up and that's a huge part of it it's not i don't think the market sees this as a positive but they certainly do like to know what's going on and that's what we've done and that's what we've gotten at this stage pcc remains at 0.93 so still quite a lot of calls in compare comparison to the puts so i think when we get the reading of the big news coming out on friday morning that could have a real effect on the markets here and we'll move over now to gold so in the previous video we discussed that 1922 it looks like gold's come back to that level a few times a little bit lower as well and it's bounced off that zone if you're gold bull i think you're looking for this to get back above 1935 to feel a little bit better and of course if it does end up going past this 1950 then i think it actually takes out the previous high because 1960 is unlikely to stop it if it shows this type of pullback effectively it's gearing up for a larger move so gold still looks bullish at this stage be careful underneath these lows here at 1914 1915 if that gets taken out it could really be bad and look at the time of this recording well it's 114 now for oil i want to dry drive in here to a two hour chart just to show the kind of volatility that we've already started to see on oil so we saw it go from 100 all the way down to 90.
that's a considerable change obviously that's 10 then in the previous session we saw oil go from about 6.67 down and now it's made a new peak this is a fairly large deal i mean oil now to give you in comparison to where it's been in the past it's now getting towards the highest point it was in 2011 and obviously the next big point is that 150 barrier so if it gets past here could oil go completely parabolic we've got the opec meeting discussions constantly going on and at this stage it looks like oil is having a big hard time and this is pushing through to things like coal as well i would like to think of it as this way if you look at all these markets wheat oil coal they're all parabolic and that only ends one way you can follow the trend but then what will happen is it will get absolutely monstered in one session like you've seen it before look at modern charts and then as it turns around what will happen is you'll get a little bit of a pickup and if it gets monstered by a huge portion usually it won't go all the way back to the top it'll go like here and that will be the end of the run so if you want to know when the end of the run is going to be it's it's that huge volatility that's going to be just massive it will pick up most likely it tends to do so and then it will effectively be dead cap bouncing into that will be the peak of oil so if you want to spot it on wheat and oil it's a bit of a top tip that's when you know markets are parabolic that's for sure it's extending and therefore the crash if it's going to occur will be fast and then it will go back it'll have like that slingshot effect get a lot of suckers back into the buy and then it'll just turn over that's how they always always markets in one of three ways and that's certainly one of them let's look at tesla so tesla goes and tests these highs over here well tesla's doing pretty well in the sessions it's still fighting a lot with this zone though so you've got kind of like a rejection candle here on the daily then you've got a bullish kind of candle here so if you're looking at trading tesla we know 945 to 950 is a huge level for it if we put a horizontal line in here about 890 is a big zone as well that's the previous supports resistance it's a huge level in the market so remember with tesla if you breach through this high expect it to start to accelerate at least 920 if not 945 and if you start to sell off in the broader market this still could be an interesting one to have a go at though i'm leaning towards less negativity here just because of the oil price and the feed through or the follow-through effect that could have in terms of order sentiment et cetera for tesla nvidia is hovering within the range we've liked this zone towards the short it's basically come back up it's still above this oh so still below the 240 247 here and if it does end up going back down this could really get hit so just remember semiconductors in particular especially nvidia even though it's a great company still is looking a little bit shaky there so this is just a pickup from the community and i guess what it shows is that we've got breakouts in certain markets if you know where you're looking for now obviously have you been in things like lockheed things like you know defense stocks i could see some real potential in those and we might do a special on them and grab a whole bunch of european companies as well because this is a huge move you know basically governments are going to increase their expenditure in defense by a factor of percentage points of gdp i think everybody knows germany just opened up and then they're going to start doing it all of the eurozone everyone in the world will increase after this so it's a clear logical trade even against the market that defense is going to be very strong but here's one on cyber security another huge play against of course one of the big tools of these invasion kind of things which is cyber threats so the bug cyber security was picked up by i think it was nick in the room shout out to you nick well done i like this a lot and he's found a fantastic level obviously he's been in it for a little bit here but uh yeah another just great spot and it shows this opportunity in opportunity and opportunity and this could really be one of those counter to market conditions because of the increased expenditure throughout the world arcade well 20 moving average weakness here so yeah it's not so good hey it's a bit weak on the 20 moving average we still haven't seen it go up if you were buying yesterday this was the level we talked about so that 65 60 65 20 it bounced straight off that got to 67 56 so not too bad if you manage to pick that up in the morning and you like it but until it breaches through this 7150 i'm not feeling confident about what we call the first stage of recovery that's where it's first stage after this second stage we'll continue to follow arc and hyper stocks but that's how they're looking the dax let's go into the indices the dax continues to put pressure onto the bottom side when we're looking at the bond market it's currently saying it's still weak the bond traders tend to be in front and the bond traders are currently saying through my indicators that effectively the market they don't believe that the market deserves to be going up they believe the market deserves to be going down or flatlining so that's an interesting point here if you think about the dax though if it breaks underneath this support and the u.s market hasn't gone yet that could be an early warning sign for your day trading systems as well like that's a clearly very weak market there the us 30 very similar it went up it hasn't done much we're looking for a breakthrough of this point here 34 thousand and fifty five if it gets through there what happens all of these nice rejection weeks the weekly hammer all of those things come to fruition you get through the daily 20 as well to great bull sign and on the weekly of course based on the non-farm payroll news if this ends up going red and negative and gets under this this zone here this could be a full-on wyckoff and that would be a big negative sign so i can see cases here for the bulls and the bears and i think that's the problem it's incredibly convoluted the market almost doesn't even know what it wants to do so sometimes traders choose not to be involved in this market until decisions are made and i don't blame you it's it's a tough one it is because it's up down up down up down but in a small range in comparison to what it has been in previous days the iwm the russell 2000 we've got here the 209 210 level obviously if it breaches that the bull case scenario and if it just starts to flow back over that could be again weakness but i think other markets will show us better there and then we'll move over to the nasdaq here downward trend line through the last couple of peaks we're at the resistance we've got a 20 moving average sitting just above that's the daily moving average here big resistance point for it and when we start to think about the interactions with this zone i'll actually use the futures just to show you this you can really see that this market is it's it's fighting with itself it's like okay if we get through these highs all right we're allowed to then go to 14 600 or something like that you know that's a very logical conclusion after this we've got this potential of the futures inverse head and shoulders we've talked about that left shoulder head right shoulder but if the bears get control of this market they're going to try to push it here towards the short and obviously they get underneath this point here what's going to happen this might be a little bit of a drop but it could really start to fall over so it's it's a good day trade coming up here whether it's a breach up and we move higher or the breach underneath and we move lower i don't think many traders probably care because investors care but traders may not and and this is this is what you're doing you're really just trying to figure out key zones we're getting a lot more clarity after the last session of the key resistance and the key support so i think that's going to be very important to look at the s p 500 is more of the same daily 20 moving average current resistance you'll see that it ended up selling off a little bit there into the close just to maintain that as a big point and it's super obvious you know this is a big deal and imagine if you were short if it got underneath 4280 would you have a smiley face if you were short i'm sure you would because that would be a big deal so putting a double top within the direction of trend towards the downside and that would be pointing towards quite a lot of weakness so the nasdaq right at resistance probably one of the better ones to look at the s p 500 resisting itself the dow at resistance they're all there and why are they there a lot of it is non-fund payrolls but before we just look at that it's bitcoin and what's bitcoin doing it's at the resistance of 44 000 it's rejecting this zone currently and if this number comes out and the market i don't know which way the market will interpret it we can't really tell that but if they don't like it i would expect bitcoin to come down just like the rest of the market would and here we have the bull case and that's through 46 000 creating effectively the double bottom on bitcoin hasn't happened yet we're at that critical point ahead of guess what the big news non-fund payroll employment change 8 30 a.m one hour before the market opens here in the us oh it's going to be interesting to see what happens here because this is another big read here for the markets and the markets are going to be super sensitive to news so basically once we start to see this news come out it's going to be very sensitive because the fed have shown that they aren't really willing to go that hard at the moment and therefore what have we got we've got a market that's stuck at a point ahead of the news now in terms of anything else if you've been following the channel come over and follow us on fxevolution on twitter it always helps us out and come over we share some different information there so definitely join us and if you've enjoyed this video please remember to subscribe smash that like button and we'll see you in the next one bye for now
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