저자: Kevin · 외국인
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코로나 충격으로 주택시장이 봄 상승세에서 이탈하며 2020년 상반기 타격 후 3분기 반등 예상. 프레디맥은 2020 금리 3.3%, 2021 3.1% 전망, 주택가격 2020 +0.4%·2021 +0.7%로 제시. 연준의 현금인출 재융자 감정평가 완화는 부채 확대 및 버블 우려 요인. 주택건설업체 신뢰지수가 역대 최대 월간 낙폭(55→30)을 기록. 본인은 주식을 저평가 구간에서 사두었다가 5~6월 이후 매도해 부동산을 저가 매수하는 전략을 제시, 신축 분양은 과매수 위험으로 회피 권고.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here one of your favorite real estate investors on YouTube and today I've got well some news that I don't want to report but that I have to report an update to the mortgage crisis we're gonna start with Freddie Mac's update and predictions this means we're gonna get the 38 largest fortune 500 company the one we heard like about every single day in the 2008 meltdown fannie mae and sister company Freddie Mac oh we're going to get an update from basically one of the founders of the conventional mortgage Freddie Mac and they're going to give us their prediction on housing prices and interest rates so if you're interested in real estate you're thinking about buying you're thinking about selling you like refinancing you're a tenant and you're like is this my opportunity to finally get into the real estate market I will give you Freddie Mac's update first then I'm gonna talk about it and it's a new update from the Federal Reserve or regarding mortgage appraisals absolutely shocking well then talk about mortgage applications and what the heck is going on with Home Builders so let's get right into it because this is the you money I haven't done that intro in quite a while so all right let's get into it so Freddie Mac just released an update and their update reads that the housing market will deviate from its typical spring surge with both home sales and house prices falling due to the pandemic I mean I think that goes without saying but what we want are the numbers now what's also interesting though before I hit the numbers as they say undoubtably the housing market is gonna face its greatest challenge bah blah blah blah and then although the uncertainty of the crisis means forecasts of economic activity are more unclear than usual in other words it's like kind of hard to predict what's happening they expect that most of the economic damage from the virus will be contained to the first half of the year that is a big statement right there because a lot of us are thinking oh my gosh this is the beginning we're seeing more and more cases even though maybe the curve is slightly flattening we're still at the beginning of this we haven't even seen all the earnings guidance yet we're gonna get from companies we're just starting get releases like from Goldman Sachs and Chase and Wells Fargo though at the same time we've got an oil crisis going on like how how could this be contained to the first half of the year okay but that is their opinion so let's just keep going it's interesting it is interesting to me remember 38 largest fortune 500 company here putting pen to paper saying they think that the virus will be contained to the first half of the year the economic impact of it going forward we should see a recovery starting in the second half of 2020 which real estate I mean I'm not trying to sound like a real estate shell here but that basically what they're saying is you might try to pick up some deals at the end of the second quarter before the second half begins like May and June right second quarter April May June yeah they're thinking a turnaround might start July August interesting okay now according to the forecast ooh-hoo now I feel like I'm getting out my crystal ball but hey these people probably have a few more researchers in their offices then than I have in my office it's just me in here okay here we go the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to be three point three percent in 2020 which by the with that is insanely low 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is expected to be three point three percent in 2020 and whoa this is what they're they're expecting for 2021 that rates will actually decline to three point one percent that's amazing I mean I would probably still refinance today if I was in the position to where I could lower my rate and and reduce my monthly payments because it's gonna give you more cash flow now and honestly more cash flow now is just for me at least going straight into the stock market and kind of build up the warchest in the stock market for those good deals in real estate my pov right now is buy stocks at a discount and if those stock prices are higher come June come May sell out of those and go buy real estate at bottom the sort of weird mixing of the real estate cycle that's my opinion right now trust me I am full-on bullish for real estate trust me like real estate is my number one investment I'm a 28 year old an eight million dollar portfolio that I created myself working hard and grinding as a real estate agent and making money to invest so yes real estate is my primary investment but Wow I definitely am though trying to time the market a little bit by buying into stocks and then buying real estate that's just my POV though all right let's keep seeing what's going on here house price growth is expected to decelerate to an annual rate of 0.4% in 2020 Wow I don't I don't know if I believe that they're saying the increase in housing prices is expected to slow down to a growth rate of 0.4% basically they're saying they think in the entire year of 2020 averaging out the down that we're seeing now and the up that we'll see at the end of the year they think real estate prices are going to go up about half of a percent point four percent which that's really interesting because they did say most of the economic damage will probably happen in the first quarter so that actually kind of reiterates a little bit of at least my speculation which in a lot of areas we saw somewhere around 2 to 3 percent in gains so I think we're gonna see that 4 to 8 percent decline but what this is me this is Kevin so let's say Kevin forecast here which which I believe you know that we'll see some kind of rebound but according to Freddie I'll use a different color here to indicate Freddie ok blue is Freddie according to Freddie they believe that all of this madness that I'm seeing you know the strong start to the year then the decline then the rebound in quarter 2 which I agree with them on that's why I think you know this is the time to buy deals which is really gonna be like May and June you know even start shopping right now in April but anyway they believe that these prices are basically going to do something like this by the end of the year to where at the end of the year were actually green by 0.4 percent that's interesting ok it's their theory now this is also interesting though I think this is partially because of the damage that we're gonna see in 2020 they believe that next year in 2021 rather than see any kind of boom in the market Freddie believes we're gonna probably continue to see this relatively flat growth and we might only see real-estate prices increase by 0.7% next year but that's actually very interesting that Freddie believes we're gonna see this damage in quarter one quarter two then we're gonna see a rebound in quarter three and four and we'll still average up although barely like basically flat for a 2020 and 2021 now the rest of their update here isn't really that interesting so let's move on to the next thing that's really interesting they mostly just say hey you know what volume for loans for purchases this year is gonna be less next year it'll be bigger and it'll be the opposite for refinances in other words most people are trying to refinance now compared to next year all right I get it even though they did say they expected rates to be lower next year that is interesting all right let's move on to the next update appraisals oh my gosh so big update here from the Federal Reserve on appraisals so usually when you get a house you buy it or you refinance it an appraiser goes to the house they measure it they take pictures of every room the smoke detectors they inspect the furnace they go through the entire property to make sure the banks not getting ripped off well now the Federal Reserve is saying we're kind of having issues here with people getting loans especially because a lot of people don't want appraisers in their houses right now so the Federal Reserve is saying you know what we're now making it so that you could get these appraisals done without the appraiser actually going inside the property now a quick note if you're buying a place you're probably still going to see that in-person appraisal this is really just a change for cash out refinances and the reason that matters so much is look back at the last massive crash we had in 2008 a lot of it was fueled by well homeowners doing massive cash out refinances in 2004 5 & 6 basically taking out the max debt had already inflated property values trying to get as much debt as possible and then when property values came down people were left with this bag of massive debt and then they'd look around it well what did I do with all that debt oh I bought vacations boats and RVs that doesn't do me much good when the market crashes and boom big foreclosure crisis of 2008 comes around so cash out refinances are a big place you usually want to see constraints you know less people doing cash out refinances this really loosens that and lets more people take on more debt makes it easier for people to take money out of their places now I also believe this is limited to primary residences so I don't think we're gonna see a lot of landlords doing cash out refinances without appraisers actually going to the property now I want to be clear old-school you used to be able to get these things called appraisal way verse which appraisal waivers were basically like hey you've got so much value on your house like your house is worth 600 K and you only owe $300,000 we don't need an appraisal to feel comfortable we'll just put it into like Zillow and be happy with that they don't actually use Zillow but they use something similar to that and to figure out okay there's enough value there we don't actually need to send an appraiser to the property well now let's say you have that six hundred thousand dollar house it's kind of three hundred thousand dollar loan on it and you want to take money out of the property so you can go buy puts because the stock markets gonna crash in your opinion fine you used to have to have an appraiser come to your house and go through everything now they're starting to indicate that hey you know what even for cash out refinances we might actually not require the appraiser to go into your property and we'll just rely on other things like photos or other data or metrics and we won't actually come visit you really starting to loosen the criteria for people getting loans which means people get more flexibility people have the ability to get more money in their pocket sooner but it also potentially exacerbates kind of the mortgage crisis that's happening because now you're having potentially less information provided to appraisers which means potentially houses are getting refinanced at higher values in other words people are sinking themselves into more debt potentially and you create maybe more of a bubble it's interesting to me I also think this is gonna be really good for the 3d scanning business I wouldn't be surprised if an appraiser in the future said hey you know what why don't you just send me a 3d at our port scan of your property and you bought the my favorite matter port camera the insta 360 I've got all the links for the insta 360 down below by the way and you walk this through the property did a quick little scan you sent that to the appraiser and boom it measures it for the appraiser and it gives them a 3d diagram of everything that's there like I think that's the way of the future and this is a sign that we're starting to step in that direction although every time I see these sort of lending criteria loosen I get a little bit more concerned because it can really start inflating values and start encouraging people to take on a lot more debt in other news home builder confidence has taken its biggest one-month dive in history this is straight from the CNBC here they've indicated that usually of reading above 50 is positive and we were expecting the reading to drop to 55 but it actually dropped all the way down to 30 in April which is a huge plummet this does not surprise me at all new construction is the worst thing to buy at a time like this and not only that but I drill into all of my course members in my real estate investing program in our live streams every day the markets open at 9:00 a.m.
I drilled new construction only buy it if you can't find a wedge deal and if the markets going up but in a panicky time like this you're overpaying you're paying above market value and the markets potentially falling this is to turbulent of a time to buy new construction somebody left me a comment the other day and said how do i short real estate and I said short home builders now some of this kind of news might already be priced into the market but oh my gosh the only type of real estate I would consider buying right now is anything be low market value just because Freddie says hey things might be flat this year and next even though we'll see some volatility I would still rather buy below that line so do whatever you can to buy real estate below market value right now take advantage of the fear that's out there don't get ripped off don't pay market value join me t five minutes in let's $100 and of course ]
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