저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 주식 보유 내역을 공개하며 평균단가 대비 큰 평가이익을 설명. 2021년 말 테슬라 적정가 905달러+α 주장, 현 주가 대비 저가 분할매수 원칙 강조. 대량매수 실수를 반성하고 향후 매일 5천달러씩 추가 매수 계획 및 실제 주문 시연.
다듬은 글
hey everyone Kevin here I've been getting a lot of questions about Tesla what did I do with the Tesla shares that I owned and what's going on with a model why and lawsuits and all these crazy things about me and Tesla well today I'm gonna break it all down and I'm also gonna show you every single Tesla share I've ever bought how many I bought and at exactly what price I bought and exactly what I own right now which is actually really interesting because you're gonna see a little bit of the psychology of buying stocks which i think is really fascinating because to me as I always say the stock market is a graph of human emotion and by looking at the purchases I made I can kind of see my own emotion built into them even though I'm a long run buy and hold investor but hey let's tell you what changed here let's go through some of the good the bad and the ugly and share all the truth about me and Tesla first things first I think it's super helpful to be very clear and just say no I have not been sued by Tesla no Tesla that's not contacted me to ask them to make nice videos about them in exchange for dropping their lawsuit now I don't blame some commenters for thinking that I did make an April Fool's video where I waved a Geiger counter around a Tesla after planting uranium ore under the mats in the car so the Geiger counter would go off like crazy and I may have done that wearing a crazy-looking space hazmat style suit and that was April 1st that was a joke it was an April Fool's video and I may have also made a video that night saying that I was sued by Tesla and I may have read off things like the Lanham Act and lawsuit verbage and claims that may have related to Tesla but that also was an April Fool's joke oh but hey I can't really blame any of the confusion because I did follow up by making a video about me cancelling my order for the Tesla Model Y and expressing in the same video for a strange with the lack of guidance Elon and Tesla Motor Corp was providing for their sales in China I hate to say it but I'm still frustrated about the lack of guidance that Tesla is providing in terms of sales in China I would like to know how many model Y's are selling compared to how many model 3s are selling and yeah don't follow me but as an investor I would like to know how much of those are selling in China compared to how much they're selling in the United States that's because I've also made videos in the past making projections as to how much I think Tesla's share price should be worth by the end of 2021 and to save you all the analytical crap I personally believe Tesla's worth nine hundred and five dollars per share at the end of 2021 plus plus and the plus plus is plus insurance revenue and plus Solar revenue now I have to say that is pre Rona Rona may mess up these calculations a little bit which is also why I was kind of on the hunt for some guidance in that model why video I made because guidance lets me go to my data and my research and my information and my beliefs and my call it speculation about a company and make adjustments but without that I get a little nervous so what I did in the model Y video is yes I did cancel my model why I cancelled my model why because I thought you know what if I'm stuck at home a and don't eat a car and B I could use that cash to buy more stocks I would rather do that and spend money on a car right now now I will say I did pre-order a Tesla cyber truck but I'm not really expecting to take delivery on that until the end of 2021 anyway so I've got some time and I've got some opportunities to buy stocks now that all weren't confusing enough I ended up making another video talking about Tesla solar and how I'm going to install solar panels on rental properties to see what the ROI is of giving tenants solar especially in the southwest region of the United States or solar tends to be pretty profitable in that video I expressed how I think Tesla's solar business and their model is absolutely genius crushes the competition by far in terms of what they offer and the flexibility of their contracts and the speed of their installations I did also give them a hard time for trying to subcontract a roof to me but I have to say brilliant model because hey I could have had a really easy roof replace they would have made that really easy for me so where does this leave us today well this is where I get to revealing the truth about Tesla and me that is me my shares of Tesla do I still have them what do I have and how did I acquire them and how much did I acquire them for and well the easiest way to answer all of this is to literally just show you my transactions now I've done many transactions with different trading services so I put them all on a spreadsheet and this spreadsheet also makes it a lot easier for me to figure out what my exact cost basis is because I can add up all of my transactions and divided by the shares I have and then figure out ok that's on average how much I paid per share so let's look at this while at the same time kind of going into the psychology of Kevin it's also helpful to quickly mention that I bought my first Tesla product ever at the end of 2017 I bought a Tesla Model X while I had been driving a Toyota Prius and so I took my face from my Prius and put it on my Tesla just kidding it's a new face a new picture but I wrapped my Tesla with my face and my real estate advertising and everything and I have to say the first six months to a year that I had the car that is pretty much all of 2018 I had a lot of frustrations with the car but in 2019 the over-the-air updates fixed a lot of the problems that I had with my car a lot and things kept getting better and better and better the auto pilot got better the steering got better the bugs went away new features came out and I started getting mind blown by the fact that my car was basically getting better when most cars as they age usually get worse and I'm also not a big fan of spending money on cars I bought a 2011 Toyota Prius brand-new and I drove that thing for over six and a half years to milk it which is not like a dramatically long period of time but I'll tell you one of the reasons I kind of got pushed over to the edge to finally get a new car was because I used my Prius kind of like a pickup truck and because I had spilled a few too many bags of concrete and tile and plants and stuff like whatever goes into a construction and rental renovations and real estate I I realized I wasn't really helping my cause as a real estate broker when I invited people to go in my car and tour them around to show them real estate now that rarely happened but I'll tell ya I'll never forget the 2 million dollar client that drove around with me and would not stop complaining about the lack of airflow in the back of the Prius that the car smelled old I mean everything was like fussy maybe they're just like fussy people ok but after that moment I bought a Tesla and I'm like that will never happen again of course I ended up getting the Tesla Model X with white seats which if you're like me and you wear jeans and a suit jacket and a shirt all the time jeans happen to make the Tesla white seats turn blue but I'm gonna blame myself for them so alright let's look at the shares now here is the evolution of Kevin's interest in Tesla stock share buy share first Tesla shares I ever bought I bought around the same time that actually bought the car you could see I didn't buy a lot I bought somewhere between 6 the 4 shares to 3 shares once my car started improving I didn't put the dates on here I should have probably put all the dates on here but I know this was 2018 I actually bought 47 shares of Tesla in 2018 as the car started improving and getting better so you can kind of see how like my purchases were like an initial kind of foot in the water dip and then once I started seeing the car get better I made larger purchases and then when pricing had fallen substantially in the summer of 2019 I also made large purchases you can see a 52 share purchase at 189 that was the lowest I was able to buy Tesla and then as it started going up I bought more when I had money available I spent more money so I bought shares at 221 I bought shares at 243 these are all good purchases obviously relative to the price today well as my enthusiasm for the company grew I started parking more and more cash at Tesla here you could see I actually made a 119 share transaction buying Tesla shares at $336 right after buying 10 more at 243 now just a quick note a lot of you know me as a real estate investor why am i buying shares why am i picking stocks well let me just add clarity here because there's a lot of confusion around this a lot of people say well Kevin you should you should buy real estate and then just put money into a Roth you know and put it into an index fund and call it a day I don't play that game me when I buy stocks I like to buy stocks in either a 401k where I'm taking a tax write-off for making stock purchases or I just buy them straight out in a regular trading account my trading account of choice right now is chase you invest although I also have been using some m1 finance and Robin Hood and Weeble weebles great I mean obviously you get your two free stocks if you deposit $100 use the link down below wiebel I really like though for tracking prices pre market and after market so I keep some money at weeble in case I want to do some pre market or after market trades but chase I use regularly and here's the big reason why as a real estate investor I invest in stocks I do it because stocks serve as reserves twofold answer here for what I mean with reserves basically I believe that stocks will go up in the long run so I would rather continue to buy stocks and then hold those stocks in the long term and as the values go up of these stocks in time because I'm constantly buying over time they're generally going to net up and I actually create an emergency fund in my stock portfolio the way I do that is I look at my stocks as something I never want to sell but if I need to sell I can so that to me is much stronger and better suited for my personality than a dumb savings account the reason for that is if I have ten thousand dollars sitting around in a savings account I'm pretty likely to spend that because I go oh I could go on a vacation oh I could buy a new camera I could buy some shoes I can buy some glasses whatever if I look at my bank account I go oh crap I only got nine hundred dollars in the bank account and I got to pay a thousand dollar bill when do I get paid next I'm constantly feeling poor and by constantly feeling poor yet at the same time having a bunch of money in stocks I'm actually building my wealth that's just a quick taste of the psychology I teach in my money program but let me give you the second reason to as a real estate investor why I would buy stocks the second reason I buy stocks especially in like a 401k retirement account like a simple IRA or SAP IRA is I get a tax deduction so I have more money in my tax account right away in my retirement account which is nice I have more of an emergency fund which look at what the cares Act did the cares Act removed penalties and they let you take out double the normal loan from your 401k it's like this is why the 401k is so much better than the Roth in my opinion like when when things go bad they release all the restrictions on the 401ks this happens over and over again but whatever so I have more money available now which means I have more reserves in that and yeah I have to pay taxes on that at some point so we could talk about that a different time but I never plan to pay taxes and real estate anyway also something we could talk about a different time but anyway now have more money sitting over there in reserves so in an emergency if I need it I have more available which was the first part but also when I go to a bank to qualify for a loan and they say Kevin we want to see that you have six months in reserves for all of your properties I go no problem here let me show you my stock trading account and they look and go that checks that box thank you very much Kevin they use stocks as reserves so that's why as a real estate investor with somebody with an over eight million dollar portfolio in real estate I buy a crapload of stocks so going back to the spreadsheet after my purchase of 119 shares at three thirty six shares promptly fell to 292 and then to 77 but unfortunately I didn't have a lot of money left over so I bought more shares but this time I only bought 10 shares five shares and four shares this is actually something I don't do anymore I've done it again what I'm going to show you in the spreadsheet but today within the last maybe two months or something it's something that I've stopped myself from doing I've stopped buying these large bulk transactions and I'm much more interested in buying 15 to 20 shares at a time of a company like Tesla obviously with whatever money I have you can divide this out proportionately to however you like doing it but that way I'm not sinking myself into a higher purchase price with a bulk purchase and I'd rather buy on every red day and instead of that 119 shares in one swoop I should have honestly bought 20 shares 20 shares 20 shares 20 shares and spread that money out a little bit I'm unfortunately impatient and I've realized that mistake and so now I have a rule that if I have 20 thousand dollars to invest I'll only invest five at a time five one day five the next day five the next day five the next day and I spread it out a little bit that way but usually I'll only buy on red days now here you could see I bought a lot more shares a lot of these shares were purchased at towards the end of 2019 and a lot of this was due to the fact that I had been researching Tesla more I had more money available I was making more money at that time at the end of 2019 yeah so I had more money available to spend more money to invest and I based on the calculations that I had done I strongly believed that Tesla was worth at least nine hundred and five dollars plus plus by the end of 2021 I still feel confident about that number today but what I'm about to show you is something I've gotten a lot of comments about and that's why I figured let me just show you my entire cost basis here but I did make a large purchase of Tesla at 905 shares this is the last time I made a very big purchase like this but I'll show how much of an impact this actually makes to sort of the weighted average obviously when we look at 9:05 and it's like wow you bought $60,000 of tests at 9:05 what loser what an idiot probably just fo mowing I don't know I mean I think we can all speculate whatever we want I bought it because I felt at that time and I still feel this way the value of Tesla is 9:05 plus plus that is by the end of 2021 I'd feel confident that it's worth at least nine hundred five dollars plus whatever revenue they're getting from solar and insurance which isn't even really priced into the market yet and because I'm a long term buy and holder it didn't really matter to me that I was buying at my target price because that plus plus basically makes a 9:05 purchase a lower than my target purchase price that's just my pov if this goes up to $1,000 you're not going to see me buying unless some new guidance or new data comes out that changes the data that I believe Tesla is going to be aligning with in 2021 so if this stock keeps going up like it's been going up the last few days and it goes over a thousand or over 905 substantially I won't be buying it in fact I'm not buying it right now either I'll tell you what what I'd actually did so obviously that transaction there looks like a big thorn like wow what an idiot you must be a bad investor what whatever if you keep scrolling though look what I did as values started declining I bought 16 shares at 760 25 shares at 790 10 shares at 6:44 4 shares at 617 15 shares at 64317 at 570 15 at 476 13 at 356 this is literally dollar cost averaging down this is literally what we all speak of when we say be fearful when other people are greedy be greedy when other few people are fearful I know I didn't have as much cash available because I made I blew a good portion of it on a larger purchase but it is what it is it is what it is again like after those two bigger purchases I'm spreading out my buys a lot more that's why you're seeing these 25 tens 15 17 15 12 22 whatever this is a much better way to buy in my opinion but you can see a these purchases were made over the last probably month to month and a half here for example 356 here we only saw Tesla hit the 300s for one day and I think it was like half of a day as well because it shot right back up so I bought some at 5:48 so I'm at 473 some at 451 and that's it and so that's where if we scroll all the way to the bottom with all of this rollercoaster where you know if I just posted these sales or these purchases right here look at this let's watch this this is this is critical typical YouTube is gonna be this typical YouTube says I own a hundred forty-four shares of Tesla and look at my cost basis look oh my gosh I bought these all in the 200s I'm a genius that's typical right it's okay how do I spread these out more of course things would have looked better I mean over here though I'm kind of glad I bought 119 at 336 so I don't think there's really like a foolproof method here I think it's just if you believe a company's trading below your stock price keep buying it and that's been my POV with all of the stocks that I've ever bought but let's look at my actual weighted average now so if we go all the way down to the bottom here we will see that I actually own 653 shares of Tesla I own a few other shares in an HSA retirement account I didn't end up putting them on this spreadsheet I should have but oh well they I think it's like four other shares that I own scattered in different places I think it's like two there and two there but anyway so I think I have 657 total but for this purposes of the spreadsheet let's go with 653 because those are the purchase prices and transactions I listed here so I have 653 shares of Tesla and I paid a price of two hundred eighty one thousand eight hundred seventy-five dollars for those six hundred fifty-three shares which if we divided how much I paid which is really just the share times the price is the transaction total and this number here is just the entire transaction total of all of these if I divide the amount of shares I have by my transaction total you'll see that my actual cost basis for all of these Tesla shares is hundred thirty one dollars which right now it looks like Tesla is trading for seven hundred seventeen dollars seven hundred eighteen dollars now and after hours so $718 at the current price $718 means the current value of all of my Tesla holdings are four hundred sixty eight thousand eight hundred dollars which means I have a net overall gain on my Tesla purchases over the last in a couple years here of a hundred and eighty seven thousand dollars approximately so I don't know about you but looking back at my psychology of these transactions that I made with Tesla is really fascinating to me and it actually helps me learn as an investor the biggest lesson that I take out of this other than just keep doing this as long as the stock is below my buy price the biggest lesson I take out of this is don't make massively large purchases again 119 shares bought at 336 that's great I just do wish that I could spread that out 20 20 20 20 all the time because then when it's at 9:05 had I done 20 20 20 20 20 or 3 times 20 I would have bought some at 780 some at 850 some at 905 and then I wouldn't have bought until that next transaction that I did so that would have probably been a little bit of a safer way to go I didn't do it that's my only mistake and regret looking back I don't regret cancelling the WYD and in case you're wondering if I have ever sold a single Tesla share the answer is no by the way just in case it comes up here's a screenshot of the latest statement from my TD Ameritrade account that shows 323 shares I've actually made some other Tesla videos where I just log into my TD Ameritrade and show you those same three under-23 shares there but I've also added a substantial position at Chase you could see the number of shares here the other 50 shares I have are in like six different accounts so you'll just have to believe me on that last 10% like I say my cell button is broken and if you want to learn more about my psychology and how I teach make sure to join me in those courses link below use that coupon code join me in the private we talk stocks we talk real estate I answer all your questions I look at your deals and I try to do whatever I can to help thanks so much for watching everyone and until next time by the way in editing I realized that at the high today when I thought about making this video the share price of Tesla was $738 times 657 shares is only about 485 ish thousand dollars obviously it fluctuates up and down so what I'm going to do over the next three to four days is I'm just gonna buy five thousand dollars worth of Tesla every day even though it breaks my rule of buying on a green day because I only ever buy on red days I'm doing it to make sure that we can have the title because nobody would click on this title if I said four hundred eighty four thousand dollars whereas way more people are gonna click if it says five hundred am i right alright here we go so we'll hop on into we bull it is after hours it's 3:30 4:00 p.m.
California time so let's go ahead and buy eight shares at a limit of seven thirteen alright we have submitted that purchase order and it's gone
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