Peter Schiff: MOST PEOPLE DON’T PERCEIVE THE THREAT - You Can't Do Anything About All This Inflation

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결론: 인플레이션과 통화 공급 확대가 달러 붕괴를 부를 것이므로 금·은이 저평가되어 있다는 주장. 통화정책 비판 - 물가 상승은 공급 병목이 아니라 과도한 통화 공급의 결과이며, 돈을 찍는다고 생산이 늘지는 않는다. - 연준이 과거 QE는 일시적, 대차대조표 축소, 금리 정상화를 약속했지만 대부분 거짓이었다고 주장. - 시장은 연준의 '인플레이션은 일시적' 발언을 믿고 있어 기관 자금이 금으로 크게 유입되지 않고 있다고 진단. 재정·세금 전망 - 바이든 행정부의 대규모 부양책은 세금 인상 없이 인플레이션이라는 간접 세금으로 재원을 마련하며, 저소득·중산층에 가장 큰 부담이 된다. - 향후 부유층·기업에 대한 증세가 있겠지만 실제 세수는 제한적일 것이고, 결국 연준의 국채 매입(돈 찍기)에 의존할 것이라고 전망. - 달러가 폭락하고 물가가 급등할 것이라고 경고. 인프라 지출 관련 - 정부 인프라 지출은 그 자체로 경제를 살리지 않으며, 비효율적 프로젝트에 낭비될 가능성이 크다. - 민간 자금 조달이 더 바람직하다는 입장. 투자 전망 - 2021년 말까지 목표가는 명시하지 않음. 은 가격이 오를 것이라고 말하나 연간 상승폭은 예측 불가. - 달러 붕괴 본격화 후 귀금속 가격이 '훨씬 더 높아질 것'이라고 장기적으로 강세 전망. 리스크·조건 - 연준이 신뢰를 잃고 인플레이션이 지속될 때 시장이 반응할 것이나 시점은 불확실하다고 인정. 출연자 전망 요약 - 금·은: 상승(장기, 조건부 강세), 달러: 하락(폭락 가능성 언급), 인플레이션: 상승 지속.

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01. people are looking at all this monetary policy all this inflation of the money supply they're seeing all these cost increases they can say it's because of supply bottlenecks or shortages but that's always the case you know if you print too much money there's a shortage of everything because you just you know printing money doesn't create products creating products is what enables consumption printing money doesn't enable anything it just lets you bid up prices so you can always blame it on a shortage of goods but it's a surplus of money that is the problem but yes during covid yeah there was a a reduction too so we compounded the problem but the reason that you're not seeing a lot more money going into gold especially the bigger institutional money is yes they do not yet perceive the threat they think everything is fine they believe powell when he says inflation is transitory so they're not as concerned they just like they believe powell or the other fed chairs uh uh uh you know bernanke or yellen when they said oh qe is only temporary oh we're going to shrink our balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels oh we're going to normalize interest rates these were all lies that the fed told yet the markets believed the fed and now they're telling more lies but the markets continue to believe every lie the fed tells and they don't look back at their track record and say hey these guys haven't really been honest in the past now again maybe it's not honest maybe they're just wrong maybe the fed is just wrong in everything it says if it's just wrong all the time well then why believe them now if their track record is they've always gotten it wrong why would they believe that now they're suddenly going to get it right but i do think that at some point and i don't know when that point is going to come but i don't think we're that far off more and more people are going to start to doubt the fed the fed is going to start losing a lot of its credibility especially as inflation continues to pick up and the fed continues to dismiss you know any concerns by holding steadfast to this idea that there's nothing to worry about that it's transitory so it's sometimes at some point people are going to call the feds bluff like okay you know you you can't do anything about all this inflation and and then goals gonna take off right so the opportunity now is that while most people don't perceive the threat and are just acting as if everything is fine and investing as if inflation isn't a concern that's why gold is a bargain and silver too for that matter for all the people that do understand where this is headed and can think ahead of the curve well i mean first of all the majority of the funding i mean janet yellen said that we didn't raise taxes to pay for all the stimulus that's true they didn't raise official taxes they paid for the stimulus through inflation and inflation is a tax and it's going to fall hardest on the lower income and middle-income people so it is going to be very expensive we're not getting all this stimulus for free it's going to cost a lot of money but yes what she's saying is this next round is going to be accompanied by some official tax increases obviously targeted at the witch and corporations because that's part of what the democrats were elected to do is redistribute the wealth and to punish people who are successful and so they'll do that whether or not that's going to raise additional revenue it's hard to say i mean because uh behaviors change uh there's these new taxes you know will impact the economy and so the income that they're hoping to tax may be greatly diminished by the tax increases themselves so how much they'll actually raise is always hard to say they never raise as much as they think and they always spend more than they than they think so i think the tax increases will only provide the government with a relatively small portion of what they're going to be spending on these new programs and so they're going to mainly rely on inflation they're going to print the money right the fed is going to print the money to buy the bonds that the government issues to fund all these programs and you know the dollar is going to crash and prices are going to soar and you know people need to be prepared i mean certainly to the extent the us government is going to spend the money on traditional infrastructure uh it's going to require a lot of those resources and so a lot more spending on those resources is going to push up the prices now i don't think it's necessarily a good thing for the us economy to have the us government squandering a bunch of money probably overpaying for maybe a lot of infrastructure projects that we don't even need that aren't even economically viable it's much better if the private sector finances those costs but a lot of people always forget that the infrastructure spending itself doesn't help the economy it's the infrastructure that helps the economy but only to the extent that it makes the economy more productive in the future but the current cost of uh creating the infrastructure that is a burden on the economy we have to pay the cost up front in order to reap the benefits in the long run so you can't make a weak economy strong by spending more money on infrastructure well you know i don't really have a target let alone just for the end of 21 2021 i mean i think silver prices are going up how high they go in any one year it you know depends on factors that i i can't predict with any surety but i think prices are going much much higher because especially once the dollar breaks and it really starts to fall precipitously and people start to perceive correctly the gravity of this situation and they start seeking out precious metals as stores of value i mean the prices are going to go way up you