저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 이 영상은 특정 종목·지수의 단기 가격 예측이 아니라, 정부 통제와 화폐 위기에 대비해 금·은 등 실물자산을 보유하라는 장기 거시 견해를 담고 있다. 주제 1: 위기 투자와 역사적 사례 - 1968년 월스트리트의 첫 거품을 경험했고, 가난한 성장 배경에서 시장은 부자·가난한 사람을 가리지 않는다고 강조. - 위기 국가에 투자하면 장기적으로 성과가 난다는 논지: 1948년 독일, 2011년 일본 쓰나미 후 일본 주식(지수 약 75~80% 하락 구간에서 매수) 사례 제시. - 쿠바(1962)·베네수엘라 사례도 언급하며 사전 조사 시 투자 기회가 있을 수 있다고 함(현재 미국 제재로 베네수엘라 투자는 불가). 주제 2: 금·은과 정부 통제 리스크 - 금·은이 세계적으로 강한 수요를 가진 자산이라고 주장; 인도 사원의 막대한 금 보유와 인도 정부의 금 유통 시도 언급. - 중국인의 자금 해외 유출, 중동 금시장 강세를 근거로 제시. - 1930년대 미국 금 몰수 사례를 들며 정부가 자산을 압류할 수 있다고 경고; 미국 은행이 위기 시 예금을 가져갈 수 있도록 법이 바뀌었다고 주장. - 외환 통제, 세금 인상, 연금 등 퇴직자산 압류 가능성 언급; 장기 국채 강제 매입 가능성도 제기. 주제 3: 은의 역사적 가치와 공급 전망 - 역사적으로 중국, 미국 건국 초기 등에서 은이 화폐 기반이었다고 설명. - 현재 은 공급이 부족하다는 주장에는 회의적이면서도, 은이 자신이 가장 보유하고 싶은 자산이라고 밝힘. 출연자 전망: 금·은 및 실물자산의 장기 보유를 선호하며, 정부 정책 리스크가 커질 수 있다고 봄. 개별 종목(삼성전자, 엔비디아, 비트코인 등) 언급 없음.
다듬은 글
money doesn't grow on trees i happened to go to wall street in a bubble in in one day in 1968 which became the great huge the first bubble of my life my experience and i was just stunned and i had grown up in a small alabama town where there was no money and money was hard to get and it wasn't at all easy and i remember saying wait a minute this is this is not real and it wasn't real fortunately not so i survived i survived uh but that was probably i guess growing up poor the market doesn't care whether you're rich or poor if you buy silver it's going to go higher whoever you are rich people poor people whatever kind of people so yes a lot of people i know you talked about chinese before yes i i see chinese getting their money out of china but again that's because nobody wants to have your money trapped in a country i said why would you well you can go in the middle east and you were talking about you go down to the gold souk gold market huge bull market in every every major city in the middle east and there are all these mainly women down there buying gold and still i mean it's astonishing and i wanted them to take me home with them i had someone they were not the least bit interested in me i didn't have any gold and silver like they did but in india india is the largest gold market in the world the largest silver market too i think decades centuries of its culture and history and that's the way they work and that's the way they think some of those temples in india have staggering gigantic amounts of gold down in debate and and by the way the indian government is trying to make them sell it you know indian government is trying to do anything they can to get that gold back into the in circulation get the money in the circulation because they know there's gigantic amounts of wealth tied up in gold and silver i am afraid there may be exchange controls in the u.s because when countries start getting into trouble they do all the standard things they raise interest rates they do what do that sort of thing they print a lot of money they try to borrow a lot of money but when things start going wrong they blame it on the evil foreigners well it's not our fault we're good americans it's the farmers and if we have a war then there's another reason to have exchange controls or to raise taxes or to confiscate your money you know now it's legal in the u.s for the banks if they get into trouble to take your your money your deposits that's that is now legal that is the law they changed that law a few years ago couldn't do that before but now it's legal that if a bank in the u.s gets in trouble they can take your deposit no i mean and the us is not the only country poland other countries have changed their laws too to make this happen so no i mean if you if you're not familiar just go back and read all countries have done it throughout history they close off more and more they put on more controls and it's more and more difficult to be a citizen and a inhabitant of those countries i was in the uk in the early 60s and i saw all of these horrible things happening you know you couldn't you couldn't take more than 20 pounds 30 or 40 outside the country when you left because they weren't this is a country that less than 50 years before had been the richest country in the world well i have learned throughout history if you invest in a country when it's a catastrophe and you have staying power uh you're probably going to be great in five or ten years people will look back and say guys you were smart how'd you know uh find disasters and if everything else is okay often if you invest in those disasters you come out okay i mean if you invested in germany in 1948 oh my god you'd still be the richest person you know many i am not that's an obvious example but there are many many others this is very clear find a disaster i mean one not that long ago that when when the huge tsunami hit japan the japanese i was already buying the japanese market it was down 75 or 80 percent it collapsed so i started buying the japanese shares uh in the middle of the japanese market were down to nearly 80 because of the tsunami i mean that was the bottom but and and of course if you invest in a country when it's a disaster they welcome you you know you i guess some people saw you're exploiting a disaster on the other hand the people there said please we need help but we'd love for you to invest here so yeah japan and when the tsunami hit but you would it would have been a great opportunity for people so i have learned and and i guess if you'd invested in cuba in 1962 you'd still be suffering well it's not that simple uh but i cannot invest in venezuela now because of u.s sanctions but i would suspect that if somebody did their homework they might come out way ahead investing in that particular disaster everything was based on gold in the 30s and that's why as i said before they always find a way to take advantage of you save them uh and that's why they picked on gold back in those days they didn't pick one silver they picked only on gold because gold was the base for the money everything was based on gold it wasn't based on platinum or silver or anything else was based on goats that's why they confiscated the gold would they do that again of course they can do anything more right well i doubt it's more likely they're going to take your 401k plan um they've already in some countries they've they've already confiscated retirement plans uh for the good of the country for your own good what they do is they come to you and they say mr lewis uh this is where you're good i know you've been investing in financial markets but they're they fluctuate so we're going to give you these government bonds 30-year government bonds they pay 2 but it's for your own good you don't have to worry and they take your money probably take your retirement plans they'll probably take all of our retirement plans or other assets like that rather than gold and silver gold doesn't do many i mean gold is an asset yes but they need your money more than they need your goal now everything is a possibility i know that you grew up or i certainly grew up in the united states of america when it was the land of the free and the home of the brave and such things that you talked about were inconceivable but i have seen the us government do some what most people would have a hundred years ago or 80 years ago would have thought inconceivable and i know they can do it and they will do it again they don't care about you i want to repeat but they're no more different than the polish government that your wife grew up under they they look after themselves i mean history's very very clear about this whatever they think will save them they will say it's good for you yes of course the u.s currency can be debased and i mean this is the way here the world works if you ask me one thing to own yeah that i couldn't have it would be silver for me right now but back to your points you know silver historically has been the basis for i mean in china it was not gold it was silver all their all their transactions were in silver 80 years ago you go back to the u.s when the u.s was founded it was founded on a silver bay the basis of a silver currency okay they changed that later you may remember the 1890s because this whole thing you shall not crucify mankind on the cross of gold because they were the u.s was changing from silver to gold and a lot of people got very very agitated because but you the u.s system had been based on silver you remember christ christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver he was not sold for dirty pieces of gold i mean silver has been the basis for money in many parts of the world for many times in world history now to your point yeah there's not enough silver now i don't see how that can possibly happen unless silver was suddenly valued at i don't know 100 000 ten thousand an ounce or something no there's not enough at the moment but silver has been used in many countries many sections of the world throughout world history as the basis for money
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