저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 인도 금융·소비주 중심 장기 투자 낙관, 단기 밸류에이션 부담은 인정. [인도 OMC(석유정제·유통)] 정유사는 365일 소비 기업이며 최근 분기 실적이 좋았다고 평가. 정부가 과거(2003~2014)처럼 유가 보조금을 주지 않아 재정이 건전해진 점이 차별점. 마진은 약 2~2.5% 안정, 주가는 PER 약 7배, 배당수익률 4~5%로 매력적이라고 언급. [PSB(국영은행) 리스크] 한 은행의 대형 부실 문제는 전체 카테고리의 레드플래그지만, 단일 지점 문제로 확인되면 시장이 재평가할 것으로 봄. [금융 섹터 가치 이동] 국영 독점 영역(은행, 보험, 뮤추얼펀드)이 민간 및 효율적 신규 사업모델로 이동 중. 뮤추얼펀드 대부분이 민간으로 넘어갔고, 생명·손해보험도 같은 흐름이라고 설명. [자금 흐름·투자 심리] 2월까지 뮤추얼펀드 유입이 매우 건강했고 3월 둘째 주 들어 둔화. 하지만 투자자들은 조정 시 추가 매수 기회를 노리고 있어 심리는 긍정적·안정적. [시장 랠리 속도] 연초 이후 달러 기준 약 6~7%, 신흥국 8% 상승. 12월 산업생산(IP) 8% 이상 등 경기 회복 신호로 해석, 인도 성장률이 6~7%에서 8~9%로 회복 중이라 분기 모멘텀이 좋을 것으로 전망. [LTCG(장기 자본이득세)] 세율 인상 우려에 대해 세계적 추세는 세금 인하이며, 현 단기 세율 15% 기준 LTCG를 최대 7.5% 수준으로 올려도 영향은 크지 않다고 봄. 다만 정책 변경은 신중해야 한다고 강조. [버크셔 해서웨이·워런 버핏] 현금 약 1,160억 달러 보유, 1년간 적합한 인수 대상 부족. 버크셔 주가 급락 가능성 경고. 버핏은 장기적으로 미국 주식에 강세 관점 유지, 금리 저점 유지 시 주식이 매력적이라고 봄. 주가는 과거 5년간 이익 성장(약 9~10%)보다 멀티플 상승이 컸다고 지적. 200억 달러 규모 재보험 거래는 세계 최대 단일 재보험 딜로 언급. [인도 비금융 섹터 기회] 인도 경제 규모 약 2.5조 달러, 7~9% 성장 시 은행·NBFC·보험·자산운용·소비재·자동차 등 우량 기업의 성장 잠재력이 큼. 오토바이·스쿠터 성장률 연 14%, 자동차 보급률은 여전히 낮다고 봄. 가격은 다소 비싸지만 5년 보유 시 여전히 괜찮은 수익 가능. [버핏 서한 해석 및 결론] 버핏의 메시지는 밸류에이션이 비싸다는 경고이며 현금 보유는 신중함의 신호. 가치 투자자들이 매수를 미루는 것은 밸류에이션 함정이 될 수 있다고 봄. 결론적으로 시점을 재지 말고 이해하는 기업을 적당히 낮은 기대치로 매수할 것을 권고.
다듬은 글
rev why do you think omcs can make money they can they are making money uh and you have seen the best result of the quarter has been from an OMC and uh see it's a consumer company basically it's a uh and uh you need it 365 days 24x7 so uh and uh you know one of the thing was that unfortunately between 2003 and 200 uh uh 12 13 or 14 uh you know the oil prices went up up and government decided to come in front of the oil price and uh give subsidy and uh at the cost of the entire fiscal balance and actually one of the biggest differentiating thing this time when the recovery is happening is that government is not giving subsidy on the oil and uh hence their fiscal is real I mean if they're saying 3.2 3.3 it's approximately that much uh unlike what happened in uh uh 10 years back so these companies and if you see the statements by the government they want to stick to the policy whether the oil is 80 90 100 120 whatever it goes to demand is going by 8 10% uh margins are pretty uh I mean pretty stable at about 2 2 and a half% uh stocks are about 6 7p multiple with 4 or 5% dividend yield I mean I have not seen anything like this in a 25p market when people are not finding stocks at 7p you're getting three four of them just like that uh on the road so we we made a lot of money in last 3 years so now after making money still it is at 7p that's the funny part so I think people have made too much money too quickly they don't want to make more money out of this but irrespective of the recent correction would you say that investors need to still be wary and they could still be accelerated selling even in the pipeline for psbs uh it's a I mean so long as it is not systemic problem it is only one branch One Bank of course it's a large problem it's a uh it's for the entire category it has been classified as a big red flag but uh I think as the time passes and the system says that no uh it's a problem confined to one branch of a bank then of course the markets will get reconciled to that do you think insurance is the sector which is at the stage where private Banks were let's say about 10 12 years back yes so you know this value migration of uh from psus commanding Heights of 80 90% s or almost 100% share to more like uh 60 and then 50 that process is still on and that is on in uh uh say even in mutual funds I mean UTI was the only mutual fund company till about 92 and then the private sector started coming in now you see bul of the mutual fund is in private sector and that to domestic private sector even foreigners have fled from here so same was in uh uh if you look at uh Insurance private insurance and life insurance General Insurance and uh banking of course is happening so wherever uh there was a 100% Monopoly in the financial sector which are segment I think it is giving way to more efficient newer business model from private sector can you speak about mutual fund flows are you getting a sense that mutual fund flows could now be sticky given that markets are no longer in this uh free flowing mode till February we have got uh very healthy flows and uh I mean recently in the month of March more in the second week and all we have seen some slowdown but I think broadly I'm meeting investors day and night I don't see any concern in fact they're looking for opportunity to put more money if the market correct a little bit so I think on the whole uh the investor sentiment is very positive and very stable so I don't see any impact of this entire thing any significantly on the the liking for equity and the mutual funds what do you make of the pace of the rally I mean we are up 6% in this year in dollar terms it is about 7% it is 8% for the Emerging Markets is this speed slightly scary The Moment I Saw the IP of more than 8% for December it was very clear that things are uh healing and it has probably uh now finally we are out of the all all kinds of uh uh down downdraft effect of demonization and all and global economy is growing so robustly all across I mean even Japanese export growth is more more like 9% so Europe is is doing well Japan is doing well uh China is doing well America of course is on a full blast so India just about at the cusp of uh uh happening I mean getting the growth back from 67% to 89% so I don't have any doubts that this quarter itself uh will have uh good start of the momentum and it will pick up as we go along right Mr agal do you think markets are prepared for any changes in ltcg um and can St as well as CG coexist see uh right now the whole mood in the world is to reduce the taxation per se fundamentally because compliance improves and uh the economy also gets a boost that's the trend set by America right now uh now at our end I mean this long-term capital gains tax has been discussed many times but uh I mean I mean even if you put it how much can you put it shortterm itself is 15 so you can put at best uh 7 and a half% or something like that which is not I don't see that to be impacting anybody that much but uh if things are working very well after so many years we are getting a uh we are getting good flow inflow into formal economy and from here the money will go to the private Equity or the newer firms uh real economy so I think uh authorities should be very careful in tinkering with the current regime the worlds R the Burkshire hat annual letter of Warren Buffett famous letter which came out of the weekend and RAM looks like Mr Buffett is taking both the sides one side is insisting that we should not compare Bond deals with Equity yields but on the other side he's also sitting on hundred billion dollar of cash now so actually I was reading yesterday and uh I found that the very first page you know out of 53 years of uh uh his uh activity I think he took over in 1965 and till now so in 53 years he has uh outperformed in 34 years and he has underperformed the market in 19 years and uh actually if you see the uh performance of his uh uh the entire company uh the book value has grown at 19% and uh stock has grown at about 20% and uh index has grown at about 9 and a half% 99.9% so it's been amazing journey even Last 5 Years he has uh handsomely beaten the index so the old man is still uh full of vigor and coming back to your question on uh cash and investing he's sitting on $116 billion of cash and uh he doesn't seem to be in a hurry to buy because he's saying that last one year there's a literally drought of uh investment they've gone through all the proposals uh potential candidates but I think just about because of the the price they have not been able to uh buy anything but at the same time he's also bullish about American equities and he says so long as uh the bond yield remains low it looks that uh stock as a whole uh is going to be more attractive and uh there's a Tailwind on the back of American equities so it's like a contrasting sitting on cash I mean if you look at what he's doing he's not buying uh but if you look at his advice he still fa he still favors the stocks ramdev in the past you've owned the Burkshire haway stock and you've sold that stock because uh if if bshar hat sitting on so much of cash obviously it will have an impact on the return on Capital and return on assets and I think that is what Buffett is again pointing out to that he expects a draw down in the bushire hatfish stock I mean frankly I've never seen a chairman talking about uh his stock and where he's actually giving a profit warning to his shareholders that don't expect great returns in future because I'm sitting on a lot of cash yeah but uh I think uh the stock has done amazingly well I think it has done about 18 19% last year itself it has done 21% with the market it was with the market but uh I think in Last 5 Years except one year when there was little decline I think it has done about my sense is compounding would be anywhere between 17 to 18% or maybe 19% uh so stock has done very well um the earnings actually what has happened is stock is related uh the earnings growth has been 9 10% but uh the the reting of the P multiple has been quite staggering so uh in in my assessment when I was seeing 91% kind of a long-term growth uh from 9 10% uh Topline sorry sustained growth very unlikely that you will make 20 25% but obviously I was wrong in last 3 4 years stock has done very well uh at about and particularly this year because of this tax right back uh the stock has done very well so it looks that uh the stock will keep doing well reasonably well because theyve got so much of purchasing power and you see the aggression in the insurance the one single deal he has done of $20 billion re uh reinsurance and with 10 half billion of uh uh insurance premium and of course it must be a 203 4 years kind of a policy but uh still the size is staggering it is probably the world's largest single reinsurance deal as Indian investors Ram what can we derive from the non-insurance space yeah I think uh in India one of the biggest opportunity is the uh not only the uh quality of business but quality with growth I mean uh because the underlying economy itself is has so much of potential to grow I mean uh your 6 % is recession 6% growth in the economy is a recession and now we have attained a large size also two2 and half trillion dollars of economy so when you grow at about 7 8% 9% uh uh even if 7% compounded for next uh uh say uh uh 10 15 20 years I think the amount of growth potential of all the good businesses even if it is a bank if it is nbfc insurance company asset management companies your non non non finance companies like uh all the consumer companies uh auto companies you know I mean Auto penetration is nothing I mean even with the huge penetration of uh motorcycles and scooters you see the industry growth is about 14% volume this year so uh I think uh India has a huge potential for well-run businesses in most of the fields figuring out you know which company uh which company has underlying good business and uh good management and uh the potential of growth at reasonable price so this I mean almost like I'm saying the qgp the the format and then seeing where is the potential clearly the prices are little expensive right now but of course that will uh to some extent uh dampen the near-term return but I think somebody who is buying for about 5 years I think there's a still decent return to be had as we conclude this conversation what would your uh you know derivation of the letter would be the fact that he's talked about cash piles swelling the fact that he said there are fewer suitable bu buyouts right now in the market he's cautioned that Burkshire shares could see a sharp draw down would you say that he's somewhere hinting that keep some powder dry on the sidelines because valuations are looking expensive see two things one is that he's clearly saying that valtion are expensive that's why he has not been able to use the cash in last 12 months months clearly that is one message so you be on the guard in terms of valuation which is the uh uh underlying theme in India also and I think it is part of the global Equity theme that generally equities are expensive and the one of the reason is because the bonds are very very low in the yield uh and somewhere I think by holding cash and not participating in the market aggressively the message is very clear that uh uh and he has been wrong for very long period in terms of uh hold holding the cash for a long time but he's very clearly saying that when when the world is not conducting their affairs with Prudence we must conduct our affairs with lot of prudence so I think it will be ultimate test of patience for the so-called value investors uh who are holding back on the purchases uh because how long but my sense is that if so much of money is sitting on the wings uh I mean uh it could be a value trap I mean it could be a uh valuation trap for for very long time to come in the market and uh you have to go on I mean I'm following again him Buffet only that don't time the market go ahead and buy uh whatever you understand and with little lower expectation in the marketplace okay Ram pleasure having you on the show today and thanks so much for taking the time
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