저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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미·중 무역전쟁 우려로 주식 하락세지만 아직 본격적 조정(20%)은 아님. 저금리 시대 종료 조짐이나 미국채 장기 매수로 금리 추가 하락 가능성 제시. 글로벌 무역 측면에서 미국의 관세 조치는 중국보다 미국에 더 불리하다고 주장. 중국의 대미 수출 의존도가 낮아 관세 영향 제한적이며, 미국의 경제적 영향력과 신뢰도는 약화되었다고 평가. 인도 시장은 장기적으로 매력적이나 단기적으로 고점(36,400) 대비 약 20% 하락 가능성, 30,000 하회 가능성 언급. 블루칩 밸류에이션(PER 40~50배)은 높고 은행 부실채권·관료주의·정치 불확실성이 리스크. 향후 10년간 인도 투자 수익이 미국보다 높을 것으로 전망. 인도 성장잠재력 약 6%로 예상. 유동성은 아시아 부자들에게 존재하나 전 세계 부채 수준이 2007년보다 50% 이상 높아 추가 신용 확대 효과는 제한적이라고 평가.
다듬은 글
who better than Mark Faber the editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and doom report to join us on the show and dissect which way the markets are headed what could be uh dictating the market mood from here and especially given the heightened talks of or rather fears of a trade War uh how is it that investors at large should be approaching the markets for this exclusive chap Dr fa morning thanks so much for joining in do you think the selling of equity markets because of the high fears around a global trade War and the global tariff between us and China is overdone do you see a case for markets to correct further or do you think this is it I was expecting a correction a long time ago it hasn't happened but when it then happens it happens more severely but it hasn't happened yet very severely in the US without actually not even uh 10% from the January 26 high in India we're down about 10% uh from the January 29th Highs but it's not yet a big correction by hisorical stands a correction would be say a 20% Decline and the bare Market would be something like a 40% decline so it's nothing very serious yet but it may become very serious serious in future right Dr FAA the two big Arguments for bull markets were that rates globally are coming going to come down and globalization is leading to more opportunities for mnc's are both reversing as rates are now going up and tariff making uh or are tariff talks are making Global Market opportunities very limited uh in terms of interest rates uh we have by historical standards been at the lowest level in the history of mankind from say 3,000 BC up to now to 5,000 years of History we've never been this low in the US the low point for the 10 years treasury was uh 1.37% in July 2016 and in Europe as you know we have in many cases negative interest rates now recently they've moved up a little bit but in Switzerland and in Japan basically we still have negative interest rates and we've had them essentially for the last eight years eight nine years so this is a very unusual situation I don't think anyone could expect interest rates to stay this low for much further so that a rising tendency is there is probably the reality but recently the treasury Bonds in the US have sold off quite considerably and I believe that we could have one more decline in interest rates as a result of a recession that may happen later on this year or next year so I'm not I actually went long some treasury Bonds in the US now concerning global trade you're right the idea was that uh multinationals in Europe and especially in the US could open up new markets like China and then sell their goods into these markets but uh now conditions have somewhat changed in the sense that it's the Chinese and other emerging economies that sold their goods into the US so to some extent it backfired on the US and as you know the US is not a fair player and uh they reacted negatively now with essentially these trade sanctions or trade tariffs which in my view uh are not very negative for China and other countries but they're very very negative for the US so this is my assessment of the situation now Dr fa liquidity has been taking markets up and asset value do you think liquidity will dry up and markets will go down well there is a lot of liquidity especially here in Asia I mean I see wealthy people have liquidity but of setting that is of course also a lot of debt and the debt level in the world nowadays as a percent of the economy is uh more than 50% higher than it was in 2007 before the crisis occurred so we had this modest economic expansion since June 2009 but it was driven by money Printing and it was uh driven by credit and I think we've reached probably the level of credit where additional credit will not do much good now Indian markets have corrected 10% what is your view in India and specifically where do you think Indian markets are headed well I mean I think that uh India from a longer term point of view is still an attractive proposition but as you know India is not exactly a problem free country and uh there is leverage in the system and there has been fraud as you know and uh there are still some unsettled political events that may happen so I'd say given that the market has actually rallied very strongly over the last few years and that we reached the high here at 36,400 on January 29s I think we could easily decline by around 20% from the high that would take us below 30,000 uh long term as I said I'm optimistic but I think we have to realize if one asset class goes down uh fund managers will also sell another one even though the fundamentals may be favorable but they just get out and build up their liquidity because on the institutional side the funds are holding very little liquidity so they may build up liquidity and that can then bring about selling pressure everywhere right oil prices Dr Faber have been going up we're already nudging that $70 per barrel Mark and political uncertainty going into the 2019 elections are the biggest risks for Indian markets how do you think these two would play out I don't think the Dynamics have changed a lot uh as I said I'm still kind of of the view that over the next 10 years you will make more money in India than say in the US in fact looking at the various economies around Asia and the world I would feel reasonably confident who say that India has a gross potential of say approximately 6% per anim which when I tell that to Indians may not sound a lot but it's much better than Europe and the us so I don't think that uh this is a problem the problem in India is more that uh Modi has some difficulties in reduc using the still enormous bureaucracy it may have improved somewhat but still a lot of bureaucracy and there is are still a lot of bad loans on the books of Banks and then there's also the valuation issue Blue Chips in India they s at 4050 times earnings uh I do not consider that to be a low valuation so you understand these factors could easily contribute to a peak to sough decline of 20 30% um so what is your view on uh what do you think uh Global Investors are now viewing the entire PSU banking scam in India uh do you think they would be reluctant to buy financials well I don't know all the details because I really uh follow Global markets and uh I don't follow Indian specific situations that closely for the simple reason that in India there are millions of people that uh follow it very closely so you don't need my opinion on this particular case but I think it's a quite endemic to India that there is a lot of fraud in the system or irregularities this has always been the case now is it worse than in America probably not I think America is probably the most corrupt country in the world but the corruption there is done officially so uh that we have to distinguish but basically I wouldn't sell Indian stocks because of that Scandal but I would essentially and I have reused positions because I was interviewed uh several times about India when the market was below 25,000 I thought at that time it's a buying opportunity I don't think it's a buying opportunity now just a last word uh Dr Fabo on global economics about the Tariff warfar do you think that um US versus China tariff war will get worse before it stabilizes which in turn creates huge uncertainty for investors globally as I said I think that the tariffs are going to backfire on the us very badly because you have to understand uh the US was economically very powerful until say the early 1980s the saying was at the time in the 70s and early 80s if America sneezes Asia catches a cold because all the exports went to America but this is no longer the case nowadays uh you take steel 2% of us steel Imports are from China and only one and a half% of Chinese production of Steel is exported to the US so even if the US wouldn't buy any steel at all from China it wouldn't matter to the Chinese uh at the time of Davis in uh February a Chinese uh owner of the world's largest bus company was interviewed and they asked him about us tariffs and US threat of a trade door he said we really don't care we export our buses to 150 different countries in the world what do we care about the American market and that is true for many companies the American Market is no longer that relevant China exports more to commodity producers than to the US and the same applies to South Koreans so so it has changed in the last 30 40 years is that whereas Asia and the world was American Centric before the world has become much more uh Centric towards China in Asia and it has become a much more multi- uh dimensional economic world where the US has lost a lot of its importance relatively speaking it has also lost a lot of prestige because of their uh failed interventions in Iraq in Syria in Libya in Afghanistan everything they touched they messed it up Dr Faba such a pleasure speaking with you today and so glad that you could take time out from your busy schedule and speak about uh what you feel the Indian markets and Global markets at large are going to do and which where are the headed in the next U one year as well as 10 years and in 10 years Dr Faba does believe that there's more money to be made in India as opposed to us equities
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