저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 증시 조정은 아직 끝나지 않았을 수 있으며, 높은 밸류에이션이 2~4개월 정도 횡보하며 해소되는 것이 시장 건강에 좋다는 견해. 시장 변수: 정치 이벤트(비하르·우타르프라데시 선거 등 향후 12~18개월 정치 활동), 외국인 매도, 높은 밸류에이션 등 역풍과 경기 회복(IIP·GDP 개선, 기업 실적 회복 확산), 국내 자금 유입 등 순풍이 공존. 시장은 매일 기대치를 재설정하므로 방향 예측이 어렵다고 봄. 실적이 시장 기대보다 강하게 회복되면 시장은 상승하거나 최소한 하락하지 않을 것이라고 봄. 실적 회복보다 정치 결과에 더 주목해야 한다는 시장 의견에는 실적이 핵심 동인이라고 반박. 공공은행(PSB): PNB 사기 사건은 한 지점의 운영 문제로 체계적 문제가 아니라면 시간이 지나며 시장이 진정될 것으로 봄. 다만 규모가 커서 자산 카테고리 전체에 큰 적신호로 작용. 금융 섹터 자금 이동: 1995년 이후 민간은행 개방과 함께 공공은행에서 민간은행으로 점유율 이동(대출·수수료·이익)이 계속 진행 중. 이번 사건이 이동을 가속할지는 불확실하나, 민간은행은 이미 25~30% 성장 중이라 추가 기회 확대의 효과는 제한적일 것으로 봄. 보험: 공공 독점이 민간으로 넘어가는 과정이 진행 중(생명·손해보험). 뮤추얼펀드 역시 UTI 독점(1992년 이전)에서 현재 민간 국내 운용사 중심으로 재편됨. 뮤추얼펀드 자금: 2월까지 매우 견조한 유입, 3월 둘째 주부터 둔화되었으나 투자자 심리는 여전히 긍정적이고 안정적이며, 조정 시 추가 매수 의향이 있어 이번 사태가 주식·뮤추얼펀드 자금 흐름에 큰 영향은 없다고 봄.
다듬은 글
ramv agrawal managing director and co-founder of mutila losal security JN now ramdev what is The View on the market do you think majority of the correction in India is behind us and the underperformance could correct itself I think uh we have a lot of things happening uh I mean counter forces are there in the sense that uh we have political headbands uh a lot of political activity in next 12 months 18 months we have little uh higher valuation we have Foreigner selling but on the other hand we have the economy picking up we have seen the iip we have seen the GDP numbers uh what I'm seeing from the companies is that it is spreading in the sense that recovery in the economy is so we have a positive outlook on the earnings the domestic flow is very good so all these counter forces but eventually the current slightly higher valuation must correct to make the market very uh healthy so I would think that some more correction even time wise even if it is not by levels even if time wise we stay here for 2 3 months 4 months or a little lower I think that will make the market very very hethy everyone is talking about earnings recovery do you you know even uh think that uh Market should not really be worried about earnings recovery they should be focusing on the political outcome more it's very difficult to figure out uh what Market will do because uh Market keeps resetting the expectations every every day every minute because uh uh one one election in biar or up uh that resets the expectation for the May so I would think that uh the market is very Dynamic but uh I mean I think the real driver is the earnings if there is a very strong recovery uh better than what the market has built in today I think uh Market will tend to form up higher or at least it will not fall Ram morning PSU Banks clearly after the P&B scam have been in a spot of bother but irrespective of the recent correction would you say that investors need to still be wary and they could still be accelerated selling even in the pipeline for psbs uh it's a I mean so long as it is not systemic problem it is only one branch One Bank of course it's a large problem it's a uh it's for the the entire asset category it has been classified as a big red flag but uh I think as the time passes and uh the system says that no uh it's a problem confined to one branch of a bank then of course the markets will get reconciled to that uh so I would think that it's a I mean so far what I've seen that it is a uh operational gaps in a uh operation of a branch in a bank though the size is very large so what could be a Fallout of uh you know this murky move across psbs could we see uh money actually flow in private Banks or nbfcs as opposed to psbs see the the trend has been going on right from 95 this is a 20e story uh where when they open the gates for the private sector Banks uh clearly uh the value migration started from public sector Banks to private sector bank so it has been they have been losing share in the uh credit Market in the fee Market in profit Market in Toto so they have been uh uh you know losing uh share uh this particular event uh does it further I mean does it accelerate the migration uh it's a difficult question to say because uh uh you know uh if it is managed well then I think the pace at which they were losing uh they will lose at that pace and and uh uh and the private sector in any case was doing very well there was no D of business for them all of them are growing at 25 30% I think most of them are operating in their full capacity so even if the opportunity becomes a little bigger I don't think they can do uh significantly better do you think insurance is the sector which is at the stage where private Banks were let's say about 10 12 years back yes so you know this value migration of uh from psus commanding Heights of uh 8 90% share or almost 100% share to more like uh 60 and then 50 that process is still on and that is on in uh uh say even in mutual funds I mean UTI was the only mutual fund company till about 92 and then the private sector started coming in now you see bulk of the mutual fund is in private sector and that to domestic private sector even foreigners have fled from here so same was in uh uh if you look at uh Insurance private insurance and in life insurance General insurance and uh banking of course is happening so wherever uh there was a 100% Monopoly in the financial sector whicher segment I think it is giving way to more efficient newer business model from private sector can you speak about mutual fund flows are you getting a sense that mutual fund flows could now be sticky given that markets are no longer in this uh free flowing mode till February we have got uh very healthy flows and uh I mean recently in the month of March more in the second week and all we have seen some slowdown but I think broadly I'm meeting investors day and night I don't see any concern in fact they're looking for opportunity to put more money if the market corrects a little bit so I think on the whole uh the investor sentiment is very positive and very stable so I don't see any impact of this entire thing any significantly on the the Laing for equity and the mutual funds
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