저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
한줄결론: 글로벌 증시 강세가 지속되며 인도 경기 회복 흐름도 이번 분기에 탄력을 받을 것이라는 낙관적 시각이며, 고점 버블 단계는 아니라고 봄. 시장 상황: 연초 4주간 글로벌 증시가 6% 이상 올라 7년 만에 가장 좋은 출발이며, 달러 기준 신흥국은 약 8% 상승. 경기 근거: 12월 산업생산(IP) 8% 이상으로 경기 회복 확인, 일본 수출 증가율 약 9%, 유럽·일본·중국·미국 모두 성장세. 인도 경기: 성장률이 6~7%에서 8~9%로 회복 중이며 이번 분기부터 모멘텀이 강해질 것으로 예상. 시장 고점 여부: 시기 예측은 하지 않는다고 전제하며, 현재가 고점은 아니나 10~20% 조정 가능성은 있음. 2008년식 과열이나 버블 수준은 아니라고 판단. 세제 전망: 장기 양도소득세(LTCG) 인상 논의에 대해 단기 양도세 15%를 감안하면 최대 7.5% 수준 인상 정도로 시장 영향은 제한적일 것으로 봄. 정부는 세제 안정성과 투자 흐름을 해치지 않도록 신중해야 한다고 주장. 세율 인하 추세가 글로벌 흐름이라고 언급. 재정적자: 3.2~3.3% 목표치에 민감할 필요는 없으며 2%대 차이는 GDP 규모 대비 큰 의미가 없다고 봄. 방향성상 보수적 운영이 필요하다는 입장. 법인세: 인하 의지는 있었으나 GST 안정화 이전에는 대폭 인하가 어렵고, 다음 해가 세율 조정에 적합한 시기일 것이라 전망. 예산 전망: 예산이 성장을 직접 크게 끌어올리기는 어렵지만, 안정적이고 예측 가능한 세제와 기업 친화 정책이 중요하다고 강조. 자산운용업을 글로벌 허브로 키울 기회가 있다고 언급. 리스크: 고점 조정 가능성(10~20%), 세제 변경 불확실성, GST 징수 부진.
다듬은 글
this is the best start we've seen in last 7 years uh it was only 7 years ago that uh Global markets in the first four weeks of a calendar year have appreciated more than 6% so this is in a sense history in making but is the pace of the rally slightly unnerving or this is part of any normal bull market action so let's take that point forward with ramdev agrawal of mtila losal Securities ramdev good morning what do you make of the face of the rally I mean we are up 6% in this year in dollar terms it is about 7% it is 8% for the Emerging Markets is this speed slightly scary The Moment I Saw the IP of more than 8% for December it was very clear that things are healing and it has probably uh now finally we are out of the all all kinds of uh uh down down draft effect of deoration and all and global economy is growing so robustly all across I mean even Japanese export growth is more more like 9% so Europe is doing well Japan is doing well uh China is doing well America of course is on a full blast so India just about at the cus of uh uh happening I mean getting the growth back from 67% to 89% so I don't have any doubts that this quarter itself uh will have uh good uh start of the momentum and it will pick up as we go so ramdev are the current market trends exhibiting irrational exuberance is this the last hurah before markets speak out because typically you know when markets are in this uh you know in this kind of an you know frenzied mode the momentum always uh you know takes over so do you think we are in that you know last lap so to speak I'm the worst guy to even discuss this subject of timing the market I fundamentally I don't even attempt a minute and uh to figure out but I don't think it is a top in the sense that yes it is on high uh it can correct it can correct by good 10 15 20% that will kind of uh uh you know quite in the market but uh I don't think it is a classic peak of 2008 type of those kind of euphoria is not there right now bubble is not that big right Mr agal do you think Market are prepared for any changes in ltcg um and can St as well as ltcg coexist see uh right now the whole mood in the world is to reduce the taxation per se fundamentally because compliance improves and uh the economy also gets a boost that's the trend set by America right now uh now at our end I mean this long-term capital gains tax has been discussed many times but uh I mean I mean even if you put it how much can you put it shortterm itself is 15 so you can put at best 7 and half% or something like that which is not I don't see that to be impacting anybody that much but uh if things are working very well after so many years we are getting a uh we are getting good flow inflow into formal economy and from here the money will go to the private Equity or the newer firms uh real economy so I think uh Authority should be very careful in tinkering with the current regime right if the finance slips on the fiscal deficit Target could that lead uh to uh a sell off in bond uh bonds essentially um and rate sensitives no no they should be fiscally prudent but this 3.2 3.25 3.3 has no Ming in any case all the accounting itself is approximate number and National accoun is hugely approximate number so this uh 2.3 has no million directionally you should be conservative and uh you should be around 3% around 4% or 3.5 what is right but to be obsessed about point or 2% in the I mean 2.2 trillion GDP uh economy growing at nominal 10 12% I mean what is there in you know few billion dollars here and there Ram what do you expect to hear on the corporate tax rate could that be changed as well yeah I mean of course in fact Mr jetley was ahead of anybody in terms of uh their intention of uh reducing the tax rate just that he couldn't do it uh uh so far uh and I don't know whether this is the current year is the best year to reduce the tax rates because we are passing through one of the biggest adjustments in the taxation law that is GST and yet the GST itself is not out of woods in the sense that collection is not picked up the way it was thought so I I don't know what's going on their mind or what is the shape of GST elction uh but uh I would think that they'll go very cautious because uh once the GST starts stabilizing in next uh the E bill or whatever is there I think the next year will be the best year to Tinker wholesale with the tax rates and lastly what can the budget do on the expenditure side to Kindle growth and perhaps restart the investment cycle as well which has been in Islam I think uh budget per say cannot do much uh but uh uh but having a very stable tax regime you know the predictable tax regime where the small tinkerings don't uh and understanding actually the problems of businesses and uh uh removing the because the the government can do a lot government can afford to make some losses here and there make adjustment uh in the long run and uh I mean to the benefit of the businesses so I think uh the see one of the problem is the job creation job is created by the businesses so businesses have to be taken care of like their own child so governments can do a lot and uh I mean it's not only the taxation taxation last actually enabling businesses uh say like uh uh I mean I'm I'm in Capital Market so I can only think about Capital Market businesses but there a lot of scope in uh even Capital Market businesses how how things can be smoother better faster and uh I mean we are very good globally but uh can we make it truly Global Asset Management country I the preferred Asset Management country in the world I mean uh it can be done because everywhere in the world Indians are managing the money it's a $1 trillion industry so the opportunities are like that I mean Budget is a good policy statement occasion andot lot can be done uh in this kind of occasions Mr we leave it at that thanks very much for helping our viewers understand how to manage their expectations from the upcoming budget and what it would mean for all classes of investors
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