저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 ARK 인베스트 공매도 베팅 보도를 계기로, 캐시 우드의 반박과 ARK 펀드 성과를 다룬 영상이다. 마이클 버리의 Scion Capital은 2000년 11월~2008년 6월 수익률 489%로 S&P500(3%)을 크게 앞섰고, 2008년 서브프라임 위기를 정확히 예측해 투자자에게 7억 달러 이상을 벌어준 것으로 소개된다. 반면 ARK 혁신 ETF는 2020년 이후 최상위 성과를 보였으나, 2020년 3월 저점 대비 314% 상승 후 고점에서 약 26% 하락했고, 주요 보유 종목(Spotify, Teladoc 등)은 2021년 들어 30% 이상 떨어졌다. 세 개 ARK ETF 모두 연초 이후 S&P500을 최소 20%p 밑돌았다. Scion은 ARK ETF 23만 5천 주에 대한 풋옵션(약 3,100만 달러 규모)을 보유한 것으로 13F 공시에 나타났으며, 테슬라에 대한 Scion 베팅도 Q1~Q2 사이 80만 주에서 110만 주로 늘었다. 캐시 우드는 버리가 펀더멘털 측면에서 주택담보대출 시장의 위기를 잘 짚었지만, 혁신 분야의 폭발적 성장 기회는 이해하지 못한다고 반박했다. 또한 2021년 하반기 상품 가격 하락은 기술 혁신에 따른 구조적 디플레이션의 일부이며, 인플레이션은 공급망 요인에 따른 일시적 현상이라고 주장했다. 금리 상승은 성장주 밸류에이션에 부담이지만 조정의 대부분은 연초에 집중됐다고 평가했다. 전망: 우드는 현재의 시장 강세가 혁신 전략에 또 한 번의 상승 동력이 될 것으로 본다. ARK 투자자들은 6.5조 원 규모의 자산 유입을 유지 중이며, 집중 포트폴리오의 변동성은 장기 알파를 위한 감내 비용으로 본다.
다듬은 글
what secret michael berry revealed about kathy wood's arc invest kathy woods says michael bury doesn't understand innovation space after he bets against ark fund today we're going to talk all about what secret michael berry revealed about kathy wood's arc vest ird if you are interested in everything around birdie of pinned in the comments now let's get to our topic market irrationality is a concept that is uniquely familiar to the stock market for those who have been through market cycles over the years i believe most would be able to vouch that the stock market is one crazy place it's at times highly efficient but can be a complete mess on a long-term basis it will make sense but the majority of investors are not long-term investors this means if one gets caught up in the wrong cycle they may very well lose everything conversely if they're riding a tailwind of the market they'll land a windfall within a short span of time in the past two years the stock market has been disrupted in many ways apart from the pandemic shock and injection of liquidity by central banks around the world the influx of retail investors have reshaped the investment landscape altogether this brought out a stark contrast in the investment approach towards the stock market none more so than between the big short legendary investor michael bury an ark innovation etf ceo kathy wood bury became famous because he was among the first to correctly forecast the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and made more than 700 million us dollars for his investors his firm scion capital recorded returns of 489 percent since its inception in november 2000 until its voluntary closure in june 2008.
the s p 500 returned only 3 percent including dividends over the same period wood on the other hand is the latest wall street darling as her flagship fund arc is among the top performers since 2020. bury became famous because he was among the first to correctly forecast the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and made more than 700 million u.s dollars for his investors his firm scion capital recorded returns of 489 percent since its inception in november 2000 until its voluntary closure in june 2008.
the s p 500 returned only 3 percent including dividends over the same period wood on the other hand is the latest wall street darling as her flagship fund arc is among the top performers since 2020 coinciding with the pandemic recovery arc investment management founder ceo and cio kathy wood has lashed back at news that hedge fund manager michael bury has taken out a 31 million position against her company's flagship etf according to a 13f regulatory filing on monday the big short investors scion asset management owned put contracts against 235 000 shares of the arc innovation etf at the end of q2 bloomberg revealed with bury warning retail investors about unsustainable valuations and the potential for the mother of all crashes in cryptocurrency and meme stocks arc returning 314 between its low in march 2020 and its high in february of this year would have made it a prime target for skeptics looking for a shorting opportunity while the exact detail of the contracts taken out by scion are unknown put positions would have allowed the firm to sell etf shares before a pre-agreed price and date with the contract's value increasing as and when a securities value falls below the agreed price threshold taking to twitter to respond to burry's bearish play wood said to his credit michael bury made a great call based on fundamentals and recognize the calamity brewing in the housing mortgage market i don't believe that he understands the fundamentals that are creating explosive growth and investment opportunities in the innovation space offering a positive word on the prospects of the firm's etfs wood added in our review the seeds for the innovation that ark invest is dedicated to researching were planted during the 20 years ending with the tech intelecom bust having just stated for more than 20 years these technologies should transform the world during the next 10 years unfortunately for arc brewery and others seem to have had strong convictions against innovation tech companies in the short term in addition to direct arc shorts scion also increased wagers against tesla atop arc holding from 800 100 to 1.1 million between q1 and q2 since seeing its price peak little over seven months ago arc has since fallen by 26 percent with some of its top 10 allocations including spotify and teledoc falling more than 30 percent so far in 2021 also having comfortably outperformed most conventional benchmarks in 2020 the three top arc etfs have underperformed the s p 500 by at least 20 percent year to date this period of underperformance is in line with conventional wisdom on bond coupons with u.s 10-year treasury yields almost doubling between the end of the year and the end of q1 such trajectories tend to be bad news for growth equity-based etfs such as arcs given their underlying often have premium valuations based on hopes of future growth when rates rise meaning more expensive borrowing this has an impact on companies future cash flows and in turn a negative effect on valuations despite this woods stressed the worst of the corrections were confined to the beginning of the year most bears seem to believe that inflation will continue to accelerate shortening investment time horizons and destroying valuations despite what we believe has been a supply chain related short-term burst in inflation both equities and bonds have appreciated since march she continued more contentiously while many are seeing the spread of the kova 19 delta variant as a warning light for currently bullish equity markets and a cause of the recent commodity slump wood suggested current market strength will provide another leg up for innovation strategies the deflation in commodity prices is cyclical but is adding to the secular forces caused by technologically enabled disruptive innovation good deflation and creative destruction bad deflation if we're correct gdp and revenue growth will diminish until the opportunities in nascent technologies begin to move macro needles in this environment innovation-based strategies should distinguish themselves arc backers seem to agree the etf has gathered 6.5 billion assets since the turn of the year despite returns being in negative territory these investors like wood herself are taking the long sided view that volatile concentrated portfolios might have pronounced periods of underperformance but also the potential for the most exciting runs of strong returns abandoning the common line that all returns equal the market before fees arc supporters believe the drawdowns are a temporary pain worth enduring for innovation-based alpha over the last five years this has been proven right with the company's core trio outperforming europe's most popular s p 500 etf by a factor of threself you you
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