저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 시장 전반에 좋은 뉴스는 이미 가격에 반영됐고 단기 조정 가능성이 있으나, 장기 보유 철학은 유지한다는 입장. [시장 전망] 니프티가 센섹스를 따라잡는 중이며 20,000 돌파는 현실이라고 봄. 다만 모든 좋은 뉴스가 반영돼 있어 한두 달 조정 가능성은 있으나 영원히 지속되지는 않을 것이라고 함. [포트폴리오 전략] 최근 주요 보유 종목을 거의 매도하지 않았고(1~5% 소폭 매도만), 현금 보유를 싫어해 항상 주식에 투자 상태를 유지한다고 밝힘. 목표가·기간 없이 스토리가 유효한 한 보유한다는 철학. [보유 종목 언급] 타타, 아톨 오토, 웹오브젬스 등 주요 보유 종목을 언급하며 스토리 유효성을 근거로 보유 중. 아토토(Atoto)는 실적 대비 주가가 비싸다고 봄. 웹글로벌(We Global)은 이커머스 스토리가 아직 진행 중이라 매도하지 않았다고 함. [섹터 및 과열 판단] 철도·방산·조선(HAL, BEL, 코친조선, 마자곤독 등) 급등을 언급하며 PSU는 유행 테마에 불과하다고 봄. 로봇·신규 테마 종목은 PER 50~70배로 과열(유포리아)이며 선거 전후로 냉각될 것으로 예상. 해당 섹터 종목은 매수하지 않겠다고 함. [중소형주 판단] 미드캡·스몰캡은 3월 저점 이후 약 40% 상승했고 전반적으로 싸지 않다고 판단. 개별 종목 옥석 가리기가 중요하다고 강조. [매도 기준] 주가·PER이 아니라 스토리가 끝났거나 경영진 신뢰가 훼손될 때만 매도한다고 함. [출연자 전망] 보수적·장기 관점. 현재는 기쁨(cheerful) 국면이지만 이후 두려움(fear) 국면이 올 수 있다고 경계.
다듬은 글
let's welcome on board then vij kadia MD at Kia Securities joining in on the show right now but first you know let's get our viewers a glimpse of his um latest song Right nun let's start off on a musical note first K should be Play the song or you want to okay invester invest time was so when when people tell me that we should not listen to that rumor we should ask him only right that is the essence of the song when Mr Kia is on air you should rather than all the WhatsApp messages which keeps on going whether Mr K is buying it or selling it you should not believe those WhatsApp messages wait for him to come on it now and ask him that what are you buying and selling that's the essence of the message of the song or the second the second message could be that listen to n and we we are in the business of asking questions I'm learning from you okay 20,000 what's next nift what is next now I me same thing you would have asked me at 10,000 and 5,000 not 20,000 not 25,000 at 30,000 it will keep on going you remember maybe I I don't have the exact data maybe 20 years or 25 years back whereever sensex was at 20,000 something maybe 20 years back now now Nifty is there so obviously we can say that Nifty is catching up with sensex uh Mr G ultimately markets will map economy and earnings sometimes markets may run ahead and the economy and earnings they catch up sometimes earnings they come out and then markets or stock prices they catch up in this catch up phase or in this phase of sometimes markets the go first Sometimes earnings they follow sometimes earnings they go up first and markets follow where are we right now at the current juncture how much of the good news is something what markets are pricing in I think all the good news are priced in in the market okay it is like mice and Cat sometime mice is sometime cat is ahead so it keeps on happening in the you know sometime we are chasing the economy sometime economy chasing chasing stock market or the prices so I think all the good news all the good uh uh news are there in the market people know what is going to happen now it's not a secret okay maybe two years back half maybe 90% people were skeptical we don't know what is going to happen to the World Market what is going how America is going to deal with the recession and all those things were there now I think cards are open now everybody is on the same boat and that is a cause of worry uh in shorter term I could I would say so I think all the all the good news are there in price that does not mean that market is going to fall today or tomorrow this may continue for one month or maybe for two months but of course it is not going to last forever but you know vij the question on everyone's mind is do you utilize this time to trim your portfolio or do you have that courage to buy a fresh even at these levels and are there any opportunities to buy in the market currently I'll tell you I haven't sold any significant uh chunk of my shares maybe little bit 1 2% or maybe 5% here and there that also to fulfill some other commitment ultimately money is in the stocks only so this is what my personal uh thing is that I I have never been in cash and I lose my sleep when I have cash in the bank so I am always you know money with me so I am okay with this but please try to understand that my vision I am I am I'm running a marathon okay I am playing a test match so if you are playing a 5day test match your mindset should be different than when you are playing 20 2020 and the players of uh test match five days test match cannot play 2020 they will be totally flop and the player of 2020 cannot participate in 5day test match so my mindset is that whenever I buy any share I I don't have any price Target I don't have any time Target so for me it does not matter whether th000 rupees shares have become 4,000 rupees or it has gone up five time 10 times as long as the story is intact there's a Code of Mind chase the story behind the stocks not money on the table money will make you rich but story will make you wealthy So This Is My Philosophy but everybody should not follow first know yourself that what is your mindset philosophy called smile so first let's smile and let's use that investment philosophy to understand how are you invest how are you using the smile philosophy right now no same way the way I was using in 2022 same way I am using today there is no a difference a little bit of difference in my Approach in my thinking or in my action it is all the same I don't get excited you know uh whenever uh some match is happening some excitement excite excite match is happening this is the audience who cheers up no the players have to keep his mind calm and keep on playing on the pitch so I'm I'm excited of course because M2M is rising okay but that is all right so I am keeping myself calm I'm not deviating from my any of my principal uh uh whether it's smile or laugh or whatever it is I'm following the same principle so this is what I'm doing Nik let's look at your top Holdings you said that you've not sold anything significant so can I say your top five Holdings where and some of them that is in the public domain Tas Atul Auto uh web of gems you think that even though there is midcap stocks are trading at a multi-year high you are convinced about the story or the earnings trajectory in your top uh four five Holdings see I I'm biased okay because I I am holding all these shares Patel of course is a new uh entr uh new shares but I usually hold my shares for five years or 10 years as you know so I am convinced with with my story maybe in some of the pocket there is Euphoria maybe in my shares also there may be some Euphoria usually I don't take advantage of that Euphoria or usually I don't sell until unless I need money for some different some other Investments so as you are talking about Elon engineering and whatever name you have said I must have sold some shares that you will see in the uh September pattern shareholding pattern but to buy some other shares my for philosophy is very clear Nik I like and I am comfortable when I Bard a train like if you can give an example in Mumbai local like suppose if the train is started from church gate I am comfortable if I board the train at church gate or maybe at Bombay Central but I would not like to board a train suppose if it is going from churchgate to borille I would not like to board the train at Andheri or at canand you know just to cover the one station I would let that train Go so keeping that thing in in mind because that gives me a mental uh you know uh it keeps my mind calm it gives me a good sleep you know so in that process I might have sold some shares to buy some other shares which I feel maybe may have started or maybe at the starting point from churchgate or from maybe from Bombay Central I may go wrong you know but this is what I'm doing you know let's use that train journey example I used to always ask the late great raak junal on his example or train journey so if this bull market indeed is a train journey see one day Mr Kia the bull market will finish what we need to perhaps understand is that what how long this bull market will go on so if this bull market is a train journey from church Gate station to kandivali where has this bull market reached you see I am what I'm doing I'm fearing the train okay my journey my destination is not borell from churchgate to Bor Val that is not my destination maybe from Bor it's like bull market and bare Market one journ okay one phase of life one phase of the market but I will from Bali I will see for some other destination so this is what I am doing so for me it is not a Pam it is not a full stop that I will sell all my shares and I will go back and do something else this is my life okay so I have this is my business one thing I will tell you N I have realized one thing this concept of bull market and bare bare Market is all rubbish okay I have written a poem also so if your time will allow I will recite it there is no bull market and bare Market treat it as a business tell me one thing ATO is not expending or any company for that matter is not expanding keeping your bull market and bare Market in mind yeah how does it matter bull market be Market is a phase of life okay it's like Diwali to Diwali sometime Hool comes sometime Diwali comes but we keep on going no so I think this concept has in fact confused the investors that is why 90% of the new investors come there is a there is excitement in the market or there is a so-call bull bull market you know so that is a wrong concept if you treat it as a business then there is no bull market then there is no bare market then then only stock market hello Mr kadia look forward to your next song once we hit the next Milestone as well for the equity markets and ATO you must be smiling Year from year year to year 60% in the last one month or so but that aside I just wanted to get in your thoughts because you did say um you know that it's important to track the story what about the story behind a web of global what's your outlook given that this too is one of your Holdings you see story is very simple like atoto uh has a eeve story which is going to play out which is a started playing out stock is expensive let me tell you if you will if you will study the balance sheet and financial numbers there's no support the current uh price so I don't want to say anything else and we Global uh you had named so they are into e-commerce company remember two years back what had happened platform platform platform or companies were selling at 100 Cy 200 Cy 80 Cy and without any earning also $1 billion evolution in NASDAQ and 5 billion and 10 10 billion and all those was happening in the market now now that Euphoria has cooled down and this is what keep on happening in the market so these story are e-commerce story I haven't sold any shares of we global uh because I think uh story is yet to play out to the place space uh and I'm just referring to two Investments you have again in the public domain uh affordable Robotics and innovator fad what do you make of the price action in the space because suddenly in the space companies are trading at P multiples of 50 plus and they commanding market caps of you know 500 2,000 is there a issue in the price action in the space SP do you think that's more like a euphoric bubble which could prick of course it's a Euphoria no doubt about it 100% it is Euphoria it is a you can say that foro or whatever the terms we use in this market so people people are still fascinated about now Penny Stock and cheap stock and CH price stock also I think psychologically people treat like a penny stock I think so SM is not a penny platform let me clarify this thing I'm not saying that but maybe that concept people have the penny stock and con so that is a foro actually happening in this market valuation is quite high no doubt about it and the 50 60 70 pu ratio no no uh way it is going to maintain someday this Euphoria is going to cool down I don't know when it is going to happen maybe it will happen before Diwali or before December but before election for sure okay we about 50 seconds away from the market open so maybe a quick answer to this one when do you decide to sell you said it is not price it is not P multiple it is not valuation but you know ultimately a business can run out of its course and great stocks great companies Also may not give you returns if price valuations become obese how do you decide to sell or exit no when I find that the story is over you know that because like when I'm watching the movie I don't stand till the I don't I'm there till the last slide is okay running you know when the story is over then I will exit the stock or the perception of the management changes then I will exit the stock otherwise let me tell you like some people are biased so that could be uh maybe I'm doing something wrong I don't know for me exiting a stock is uh I don't know it's a very difficult uh thing for me uh you know I get stuck I I can't sell their stock until unless the story has changed and I am mercilessly I will sell the stock so this is my answer stay with us uh a day after Nifty touch 20,000 well we starting with the print of 20,000 plus on the Nifty uh I think we'll have to really practice a lot to say 20,000 plus on the Nifty we've always been using 18,000 19,000 now you got to practice yourself but yes 20,000 on the Nifty is a reality the market Breath Again picture perfect if I may use the word and uh we've got adani stocks Railway stocks defense stocks I want to look at Banks because did all the heavy lifting yesterday so let's look at the midcap gainers and the midcap uh you know High Flyers now that we've established Benchmark in DCS Railway stocks one by one defense stocks one by one that includes HL BL coochi Shipyard mgar Shipyard so Railway stocks are just chugging along as if there is just no tomorrow so markets are off to another great start 20,000 plus is a reality and 20,000 plus is something which is now flashing on the ticker and something which got captured yesterday as a p print but some of the Railway you know Shipyard companies are down just little bit here and there but that could be called as minor profit booking so Mr Kia the most exciting space I'm not using the word Euphoria or bubble I'm not I don't know whether it's Euphoria or bubble I thought Railway stock should have not gone up uh like this that they have done but they've done I mean who's to challenge the market but in your understanding and this is more like a advice to our viewers because everybody's excited to own Railway defense and shipping stocks what should one do now for those who own it I don't know what should they do they should but generally people uh general public should understand what happened in 20 I think 22 uh we discussed just now what this platform is talks I think same kind of euphoria is happening in this psus is talk now psus is just buzz word you know so every time people come in this market with a new theme with a new dress and New Concept and ultimately that concept last for maybe 6 months or one year or maybe two years sometime and then they Fizz fizzle out I'm not saying the story in those stocks are over the story may play out maybe for a decade or so but valtion is too high and there is Euphoria in this market I will not buy those shares and uh this is what I can see just curious then to get in your take as well uh VI as to what the Outlook is when it comes to um you know the the broader markets yes you did discuss that a lot of good news does seems to it does seem to be b b in and that we are catching up when it comes to the Nifty but from the March lows there's been something like a 40% rally that we've seen for the mid in the small caps do you think that now the picture the valuations here are looking a little bit stretched maybe in some Pockets because whenever we are talking about mid and small cap that means we are talking about 5,000 shares 95% shares we are talking about so there is no you know one observation for all the sector there are many stocks in mid caps could be which are yet still cheap compared to you know other midcap shares so that is what the that is the key thing in this market you know to to to identify a diamond amongst coal that is the that is the process that is the education you know that is the research in this market but overall if you ask me I would say that this midcap and small caps are of course uh are not very cheap one has to be very cautious one has to be very careful you know there are time when one has to be fearful there are time one has to be careful you know so I think this is a time and when there is time one when you are cheerful so of course we are going through a cheerful phase but of course after cheer there is fear right Mr Kia lovely having you on board thank you so much for not only sharing your Market Gan but also serting us on ET now always good to connect with you
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