저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
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Vijay Kedia는 증시가 점점 과열(euphoric)되고 있다고 경고하며, 개인 투자자들이 루머에 휘둘리지 말고 신중히 투자할 것을 강조한다. 시장 과열 진단: SIP 자금 1만6천 크로어 유입, 소형주·중형주로 소매자금 쏠림, 신규 데마트 계좌 급증을 과열 신호로 제시한다. 다만 SIP 자금 유입 자체는 큰 문제라기보다 뮤추얼펀드 운용사가 관리하므로 크게 두렵지 않으며, 진짜 우려는 직접투자에 새로 뛰어드는 신규 투자자들이라고 설명한다. SME·IPO 과열: SME IPO에 1만 크로어가 몰리는 것은 투기적이며, 고평가된 IPO는 가시(thorn)가 될 수 있다고 경고한다. 다만 모든 IPO가 나쁘다는 의미는 아니다. 섹터 관점: 최근 신에너지(자동차 부품, 배터리 저장) 분야에 관심이 많다고 밝히고, 인프라·EPC 기업 중 생존 기업(예: 사이클 회복 기대)에 주목한다. IT는 약 1년 반 전 매도 후 관심이 없고, 금속(메탈)은 경기순환적이라 현재 관심이 없다고 밝힌다. 방산(디펜스)은 장기 테마로 10년 이상 지속될 것으로 보며, 현재는 방산 주식을 보유하지 않는다고 말한다. 투자 원칙: 과열 시장에서는 본인이 소극적이 되고, 침체 시장에서는 적극적이 된다. 경험이 지식보다 중요하며, 타인의 실패에서 더 많이 배운다고 강조한다. 경기 회복 전 바닥을 찾는 접근법을 설명한다. 리스크: 과열 구간에서 가격 고점을 예측하기 어렵고, 고평가는 더 고평가될 수 있다고 인정한다.
다듬은 글
Swadesh's most favourite investor and singer is now also a singer. Vijay ji, we love you very much to all our viewers. Thank you very much. Over 20,000 people are talking to you and your new song has also come out. In fact, I always keep reminding my team members. You have always given so much love and now the time is coming for the new anthem of Swadesh.
You also composed the first anthem for us very early on. But we will take that conversation somewhere else. You did this one well, yes Kiya ji, how can I forget it? Many congratulations to you. Piyush Goyal [Sangeet] ji, Fadnavis ji have honoured you with the Nav Bharat Times Award for Investor. Many many congratulations.
Well deserved. So Vijay ji, tell me that this time, the song that you have selected, the subject that you have chosen after thinking carefully, do you want to give a message to your followers that brother, do not move your career forward, things may get a little messed up after crossing 20,000. How did you think about this subject?
Look, what is the subject that I copied because from childhood till today I have been copying [laughs] that a backbencher just copies it brother. Well then. I just came, I went to Ahmedabad to attend a course. I remembered what this backbencher said. So I was sitting right at the back. So I remembered my school and yes, I was the same there too.
I am still the same today. Anyway, I started this committee subject from NSC, there is a tagline of NSC, invest wisely, so while listening to this line, it was coming to my mind that yes brother, how can I take this forward in a better way, then I said and this line is appropriate friend, this is a line of the entire share market, of the entire integrity market, it tells you that brother, nothing like this happens here that there is no Magic of India, there is no Water of India, that water will come in water in a moment.
The magician will keep taking out water again and again. It's not like that here brother. So here it is a matter of investing after thinking carefully. Do n't waste time on rumours. 90% of the people who fail here, they do so because they get fooled by rumours. They spend their entire life thinking, yes brother, which share should I buy, which share should I buy?
My own. Everyone feels that money can be earned out of thin air here. So I made this song to convey the message that the market is becoming euphoric. It is becoming more and more euphoric day by day. How many demat account numbers are coming for that Rs 15 crore? He is telling you how euphoric the market is becoming.
So I thought it was important to warn people. So do n't leave your brothers and sisters and go to the market. For this you said that even though the level of 20,000 has been reached, parts of the market are becoming euphoric. The time has come to be cautious. Vijay ji, please tell me that the craze for small caps has increased across the country.
Yesterday's SIP data of Rs 16,000 crore came out. Out of the SIP data that has come in, a major part is going into small cap and mid cap till the sixth month. So this big retail money is chasing small cap and mid cap. What is your opinion on SMEs? Is there a bubble sign there or can work be done there carefully in Select Ideas?
Look friend, as far as I understand, I have been thinking about this for many years, when the figure of 8, 9000, 10,000 used to come, then I tell you the truth Ajay Bhai, I used to be confused whether this is the monthly figure or the daily figure? You think for yourself, 16000 crores is coming within a month.
Brother, what is this? Is this an amount ? We might have reached something like $4 trillion, maybe a market cap or whatever. 16000 crores, friend, what does it matter brother, two billion dollars are coming every month, this should come every day brother and this time will come, this will come every day, 16000 crores, make your record, I do n't know whether it will take five years for this, but if this investment of 16000 crores will come every day, then this is a cult, this is a fashion and it will be wrong to call it a fashion, this is a need, this has to happen, it has to happen for you, but this should happen in the right way and after thinking carefully.
This should not happen in euphoria. This Rs 16,000 crore that you are seeing coming from new retail investors, if it is coming in the assumed form, then I think if the assumed form has any meaning, then it might be coming into mutual funds or for those who are managing the money. This will not be direct investing.
I do n't see much difference in that. I am not much scared of that because the person who is managing it must be an educated and experienced manager, if he is managing the fund then he will find some way or the other, he must be understanding that the matter has started to get strained, the brokers have started saying that we will not invest right now, so I am not much scared of that, it is possible that the market may go down or the 16000 crore may first become 2000 crore and later again become 15000 crore, this is not a fear, I am scared of the new kids who are coming into direct investing or the new investors who are coming and doing direct investing.
So I am not so scared of it. Yes, tell me that Rs 10,000 crore is being spent on IPOs of Rs 30 crore, 40 crore, 50 crore in SME. What are your observations there? Has the case for being careful there become very strong now? Look, that is purely speculative. People have just got flowers and have made friends with thorns.
This is that calculation. I am not saying that all the IPOs that are coming are thorns. I am not talking like that. This reminded me of the song, so I told you that people don't get this, so let's take that one. Sometimes what happens in euphoria, friend, once there was a loot in Delhi too and at that time Antenna Ventina was running.
I read that people looted an electronic shop and took away the TV. So they took away the first TV. Later, others who came to loot had nothing left, so they took away the antenna. So what I mean to say is that this euphoria here refers to the stock market. So, is a person still safe in this IPO or PPO ?
Listen to me Ajay Bhai, if suppose an IPO of ₹50 comes, he is asking for 200-2000 crores. 400 crores are gone. There is not going to be much harm to people in that. Because what will happen? 400 crores is going to be their interest if they have taken it and that share will decrease by 40% in 2030 for a minute.
Ok? So there is nothing much to fear in that. Of course there is euphoria in it or two people are thinking of making quick money that yes that IPO is coming and two IPOs, four IPOs come out which open at double or triple the IPO price. Behind it, there is a queue of 98 such IPOs which do not have such valuation.
And whenever that temperature cools down, they also cool down. These are like fireflies, they are guests of darkness all night long. Who is stopping the morning? So that's what it is, friend. What is the matter. What is the matter. Vijay Bhai, I am also watching your activities. You have been travelling a lot for the past few months.
New themes, New India is reflected in your portfolio. I know you won't talk about select stocks. But I still want to know that your time these days is in the new energy related space, be it auto ancillary, auto sector or battery storage. It's moving quite a bit towards him. How did you become so interested in new energy?
And what does the scope look like from here ? Look, this is what I think my friend, what is my work? My job is not to sit here on the shop floor and bolt something. Ok? My job is to sit in my small reconditioned office and think. So what to think? Whatever I have taken, I have taken it. So my job is just to see in which industry the sunrise is happening.
Stay within it. And so that's my job to find. So that's what I'm searching for. So those who read, listen, when G speaks and whatever they get to know, they are wondering who is Sunrise Industry? Who is the sunrise industry? So, I understood that all the sunrise industries that you are naming are sunrise industries, whether they are related to EV or understand the theory of capex, the theory of infrastructure, these are just the beginning within them.
Then my focus shifts to those stocks. So then I keep investing in them. So for this I have to keep travelling, so my time gets passed and I also get to learn while travelling and this is it, yes absolutely, this is a big theme on which I am sure you must be doing research but otherwise viewers are very interested that Vijay, where are you going to make the next investment or where are you going to increase your stake cover and which interesting themes are you studying at the moment, Madam, see you keep studying a lot because whenever you watch, you see everyone and right now, one thing happens with me, whenever the market is euphoric, then I get a little subdued.
I get a little euphoric when the market is subdued. So now that the market has become euphoric, I am a little cautious about investing forcefully as I do n't have any money. So I just keep searching for empty stories. So as I told you now, this valuation is very high and high means I cannot even tell whether it will fall.
This is not in anyone's hands. The high can get even higher. This has always been happening here. So, I will just tell you a little about my story like it is an infra story or an EV related story. Right now my focus is on this and I am not interested in any meaningful new industry, madam. Vijay ji, but what will be the other and big themes ?
Because now it is also the run up to the elections. Of course domestic cycles, industrials are being discussed. And what will be your view on other global sectors like IT, metal etc. ? See, I left IT by chance a year and a half ago and after that I do not have any investment in IT. I have no interest in investing in IT.
Because what happens is that madam, in a rising economy, there is a booming market, even if you have one lakh crore rupees, that rupee is small and the idea is huge and the opportunity is huge, so why should you be narrow-minded and work with restraint, that I have limited money, how should I invest that limited money in a story, so at present I do not understand any story in IT which can multiply and neither do I understand any such story in metals and I came to know about metals that in metals, metals are very different things and they keep increasing and decreasing.
He is very cylical, I do n't have any interest in him right now. Right Vijay Bhai, you said a very good thing that when the market becomes euphoric, I become submissive and when the market becomes submissive, I start becoming euphoric. This is one thing. Let's expand this a little more for our viewers that what happens is often different.
People are becoming euphoric in the euphoric market and subdued in the subdued itself. This matter of behaviour that you have raised is so important for the new investors and how much it has helped you in becoming a successful investor over a long period of time. You must have gradually developed yourself like this.
No, of course, it is a matter of experience here, friend. Here knowledge is not that valuable, knowledge has a huge value but experience has even more value than that. See, everyone has knowledge. Everyone must have read books, five crore people, I have not read any book, I am supposedly an intelligent investor in life.
Everyone from Warren Buffett onwards recommends him. So five crore people must have read books and 10 crore people must have read books. But no one could become Warren Buffett. So you can't become a successful person by reading a book [laughs]. Of course, it contributes a lot to your life. You have your knowledge but this is a game of experience, friend, the lion market is all about experience.
Nothing happens here without experience. Experience has taught me that brother, what do you do when a storm comes ? You control yourself, do n't you, when a storm comes you won't go out with your chest open. If a storm comes, then you restrict yourself, thinking that now this storm has come, should I sit in my house or should I do this or if it rains then should I do this treatment for it, then this is the same and when you understand that after a storm, when everything goes haywire and when everyone feels that this is what has just happened, this history, our data is teaching us this, this is not my discovery, this is mere observation, the biggest thing in the stock market is boss observation, you cannot learn as much from your intelligence, from your experience as you can learn from the experience of others and you learn more from the failure of others.
If you only learn from your experiences, then one life will not be enough for you to gain experience. So the data of our people, big people, good successful people and even unsuccessful people have failed. This is what he taught us here that yes brother, when you sit quietly. Keep playing one ball at a time.
And when a no ball comes, hit a six on that no ball and keep playing later. Don't try to hit sixes on every ball. It happens once or twice in history that six sixes are hit in six balls. You will not be able to give three or four such examples. The rest of the examples are when to strike, when to defend and when to hit sixes.
This is the mathematics here brother and this is the experience. See, I am so impressed with you that I want to learn from your experience. I have learnt so much over the years personally and of course, we also try to make our viewers learn from you. Let's talk about some more themes. Let me understand a little from your experience how you are spotting themes.
There was a sector which had become such a big sector 15-20 years ago that every company used to put infrastructure and engineering behind it. 90% of their balance sheet was wiped out in 10-15 years. And now only a few EPC infrastructure companies are left for such contracts. We have seen some such survivors, you have made them a part of your portfolio and this space of 810 companies might be left, EPC companies, infrastructure companies, we also talk to many people, strategists are saying that sir, there is a demand supply gap in this space.
There are no good infra companies. You feel that a revival of this sector has started. Should I watch Survivors again ? Or from my limited knowledge it seems 100% this is Surd industry and one thing Ajay Bhai I would like to tell you what I do, I have already said it earlier at one place that what I do is that the old athletes, the old healthy man, the athlete who has once set a standard for himself and once he has seen success, for example, yes brother he has run 100 meters in 8.32 seconds or whatever it is, someone has set such a standard and when a healthy man falls ill and after his proven track record when he falls ill then I keep an eye on him that this successful man is ill today.
Now I wait for the man to return to his infection point. When will it reach its turnaround point? When will it return to its former glory? I set my sights on that person or that industry or that company. So this is the same formula. Between 2003 and 2007, Hus of Company came. 100-200 companies came.
Thousands of companies, including small sub-contractors, came and built India's infrastructure and out of those 99 companies out of 100 were finished. Understand that, as you are saying, five, seven, eight companies remained there and all the companies in the line, all of them went to NCLT, some went here, some got wiped out, some somewhere, some got lost in Lavasa, some got lost in dams, some got lost in bridges, all of them got lost, all of them, four-five companies which were there, remained, so that is in my mind and the interviews that we hear that the focus of the government is only on infrastructure, in the last budget also they declared 10 trillion rupees that we will spend so much on infrastructure, who will do the infrastructure, ultimately it will have to be done by those companies, so earlier there was competition among 100 people, now there is competition among five people and in that too it has increased that this person is in building dams, this person is in building power sector, this one is in building roads, now there are more than two-three companies in those sectors, otherwise their margins have also increased, the government should also take it into account, if the government also understands that if these companies do not earn, then India will not be built, they have launched a scheme, what is development through controversy What is the scheme that he came up with for dispute, he started settling it.
Brother, if you settle the matter today, I will pay 40% and finish it. If you win in the High Court, I will pay you 65 taka. If you win in the Supreme Court, I will give you 90% and 100%. People started settling down. Started building my cash flow because the future was bright. So after reading all this and hearing all this, everything is in the public domain.
After reading all this, I invested in this sector. Right? Okay, your argument was quite interesting and of course, where value is visible, why not bet in good stocks, but Vijay, the defense space has already shown a considerable rally, and further, where do you see opportunities here? Do you like the defense space?
No, I like defense, I do n't like the defense space today, and I feel that this story will continue, this story is not over, this story will last for 10 years, it can last even more than that, because this is our need, this is our biggest need, looking at the border areas around us and for the security of all the countries, and they have understood that whatever scheme they have launched, that yes, brother, whatever Make in India or whatever Swadeshi scheme they have launched, that we have to do this, this scheme is going to work, this theory, this theme is going to work, but the only thing in this is that in between, like the rule of the stock market, that the expansion happens everywhere, sometimes it will become euphoric, sometimes it will become defensive , it will become defensive.
Sometimes you will be undervalued, sometimes you will be overvalued. So this theme is going to continue. In the meantime, problems will keep arising within them. Right now I do not have any investment in any shares in this. I do n't even feel bad about it because if my money is not here then my money is there so [laughs] it does n't matter.
Very nice brother. May you keep laughing , smiling and sharing your experience and knowledge with us and may the market keep moving forward like this. See you back soon as I remind you to put it in your calendar. Swadesh's second anniversary is coming next month, so your dear viewers of Swadesh will definitely need your time. Thank you so much for joining us today. Thank you. these were
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