저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
예산 발표 후 자동차·FMCG·소비주로 자금 로테이션이 시작됐고, 2025년 재정 지출(자본지출 11.2 lakh crore)이 복원되며 내년 성장 모멘텀이 회복될 것이라 주장. 은행 실적 회복과 디지털 소비 기업(Zomato 등) 선호를 제시. 단기 시장 충격은 이벤트 리스크 해소로 본다고 평가.
다듬은 글
Let's go to Ramdev Agarwal's conversation. Automotive, FMCG, Zomato, everything is like blasted. So clearly, there is a rotation from a capex-oriented allocation to a consumption allocation. This shift has only been going on for an hour. As it builds, people will read the fine print. Then they will actually go to the market and see whether Maruti is selling, Mahindra is selling, or Zomato is getting more orders.
That has been told in time. Today's market is very clear that only three or four indices are up, all the other indices are down. So, your auto, FMCG, and consumer are up at 3 to 4, and the rest are down at 3 to 4, or up at 5. That's what I'm saying. This is a very stark kind of situation. There is a surprise element here; the market was not positioned for this.
I feel like I understand the meaning right now. I am not able to understand why the market is down, so it means that on one hand you are going up and on the other hand you are actually doing this, so clearly there is a shift, so on one hand you are doing it, so what is the second thing, the fund manager cannot buy today, we will have to sell there first, so people are busy selling right now and today is Saturday also, so there is no delay in the market, so you sell first and then you will buy, right, after two days buying will come because I cannot buy today in front of what I sell today, unless I have cash balance, so this is also an issue, so in my opinion the market will find its feet, secondly I said that brother, your monetary policy has become fiscal, now the monetary people should also show some action, so that will actually give the fill, first what happened last year, you tightened the fiscal a bit because the apex of the government did not become, well, one good thing has been written in Economics, I spent a lot of time yesterday reading it, right, Nageshwar Van He did a tremendous job, he looked so first class, what he said was that brother, look, the slowdown is structural and seasonal, or the slowdown is not structural, it is seasonal because of the election problem, next year you will not have any election, so it will go full blast, so the economy will gain the momentum which is at 75, I think the half that we have lost this year will also come back and on top of that the conjunction will also bust and if you say, if they correct the monetary, if you say, 15-16, if there is credit growth right now, that looks to be a very tall order, but I think the most important ask in my mind is that 15% of 16 is the credit gain, in the fact that the economy is slowing down and the fiscal deficit number is going down, yes now it is good practice, it is a promise the Finance Minister did and she is sticking to it today markets say, she could have Compromise was there, right there the market was up, the moment the market needs what if it decreases then there is worry, if it increases then there is no worry, okay the market is sentimental but I think they will get recon side, so now can I say the party in defense PSU, you know Siemens AB, B, the so called capex stocks are the party over in then no no no no see, it is just that reluctance that your expenditure had completely stopped, expenditure will pick up but not at the cost of capex, so what happened in capex, brother your budget was location but it was not spent, so that means as per the commentary I have heard, what is there in it, if you give location, if you are not able to spend then there is no meaning, so they have calibrated they can spend, so there is enough expenditure capex is there and I think 11.2 lakh crore, so for 25-26 it will be restored that 1 lakh crore is coming back, yes so that means the entire, no no, what did they do in the revised budget Estimates: Yes, he has given 11.1 which is more than 10 last year's actual, so your pickup will definitely happen, this was the expectation build that brother it will come above 113 and reach 10, we will see something like 12-13, that did not come, okay, so what is your C, if there is a boost in the conjunction, so basically you have to fund as a fund manager, you have to burn your zero allocation because all the grossly underperforming stocks in the world have not performed for 5 years, so they were not in your portfolio, so you have to go there and buy 5, these are your favorites, so your favorites, now from where will you get the money, you will get the money, the rest is like this, I am seeing this, can I say that you know four-five days ago, it was Monday, there was big selling in the market almost like the back Of the market was broken, small caps came down, mid caps came down, there was like a fear and then there was almost like a panic, so can I say that looking at the market tone of the budget earnings, where we can stand, that okay, the shock that the market had faced is over now, all the event risks are over, I think that means now the market is on its own, if anything, there is some positive news of the lockdown, and what will actually happen to you, the impact will come from April 1, so right now, you have to leave the way you are living, no one will get extra money in their hands, it will come from April 1, the new budget position of yours or the boost that is going to be given for compensation, but I think ultimately we have to see how the fund flow works, yes, next year's earnings, all our research people will sit and see what the outlook is for next year because right now the outlook is bad, does this budget change, what will change in my opinion Monetary policy, the moment he set, we want 15% growth in credit, that is a very big statement for which there is no answer right now.
So if the shift is towards consumption like market today is up, ITC, Britannia is up and on the other side, a new category is being created, like, Zomato, travel, hotel, FMCG stocks are expensive. So, one has to bet on this concentration, that is, consumers will have more money, one, but is one better off buying classic FMCG, modern consumption, hotel, travel, and tourism.
I would go for digital companies. Okay, there is one small ticket, that is not seasonal. Secondly, there was already a shift happening, even the compensation is such a great point, such a great point, so there already, like if there is 100 and 100 has to remain 100, out of that, five 10s were already being eaten and it was increasing.
That pie will also be very expensive, so I think this is a double booster, so I would prefer digital companies rather than such companies in consumer markets, but digital consumer companies are better than non-digital consumer companies because penetration has already happened, yes, new penetration is starting here, right now we have entered 20-30 cities, 40 cities, dark stores are still opening, there is 100% growth, what do you call 100% growth, if it lasts for 3 years then the growth will increase eight to ten times, this type of growth, so what is there right now, the old consumers talk about, which you can see on both sides, banks, banks are a proxy economy, if the consumer economy does well, it is believe that retail banks do well, if the corporate economy does well, it is believe that PSUs do well because they lend a lot in terms of working capital, they lend a lot in terms of term loans, could that Also, there is a change in banks.
Retail facing banks will come back. Retail NBFCs will come back. Sea banks, according to me, they should do well. I think banks overall will do well because they have also increased the loan guarantee of MSMEs. So, I don't think there will be stress. If you do too much monetary tightening, then even banks face problems.
So, how exactly, that tightening has already happened, see what happened. What happened in the last 23-24 in the bank, there was national NPA, but there was a lot of recovery. What happened in 24-25, when the recovery ended, the entire net NPA which was 40 paise became 80-80 paise. So, they got exposed completely, on top of it, there was a little hit of unsecured and there was a problem of liability.
The bank said, brother, your deposit is due to credit, so there is problem in every way. I think 25-26 will be a golden period for banks when their credit cost will Be normal and hopefully there will be leave in terms of their credit expansion so I just surprise the budget in your own words first headline from Raamdev Agrawal it is a good budget second it has addressed the need of the hour is recognizing there is a problem in the economy and it is stroking it up there is no compromise on the capital expenditure and frankly if I look at the number it is 10 per higher from last year 11 lakh crore economy can only observe 10 and a half to 11 lakh crore even if you put a number it does not make sense the market will see a pivot which is in terms of the orientation of the stocks but in terms of going closer to the root cause of addressing the slow down this budget has given something which now needs to be padded up with RBI to get the jugalbandi going or on top of it let me tell you India is the The biggest risk capital provider in the world today after America now this risk capital they are saying see not direct but they are saying to the regulators that make the life easy the central KYC this all that is done make the life easy for the economy to function and the investors to perform in the market so I think this effort of you know this capital flow in the market that continues may be some you know kind of readjustment of the current flows and understanding as then market should be fine it is a I would I would give 100 out of 100 for this budget 100 out of 100 what a lovely line thank you very much and you know I would love to engage much more with you but it is budget and I brought you out of lunch so not take much time of you thank you very much so thank you thank you
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