저자: RamdevAgarwal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 증시는 개인 투자 자금 유입이 지속되며 구조적으로 성장 중이라는 주장. 시가총액 5조달러 수준에서 2028~29년 10조달러 도달 가능성 언급. 자본시장 관련 기업(AMC, 증권사, 유통사)이 장기적으로 유망하다고 봄. 몬순 호조와 정부 연속성 시 내년 실적 호전 및 기업이익 성장률 18~20% 기대. 다만 밸류에이션은 비싸다고 인정하며 신중한 매수 필요 강조.
다듬은 글
Let me tell you that Ramdev Agarwal, Chairman and Co-founder of Motilal Uswal Group, had a special conversation with us a while ago and he said that retail investors need not panic due to the current decline in the market but should continue investing. He also said that a good recovery is expected in the rural economy due to a better monsoon.
Let's hear it Ramdev ji. First of all, I would like to ask you as a shareholder viewer, your company has given very good results this time, as a management, let me ask you a question and related to that, all the market infrastructure stocks, there are a dozen stocks, what is your inclination towards them in the next few years, firstly you run the company as usual, plus there is a lot of interest among the people towards those stocks, so what is your outlook for market related infrastructure stocks, AMC, mutual funds, all these distributors, see, this segment was already doing well, I mean, if you see, since 2020, we were growing in normal conditions, but look, since 2020 The storm and tsunami that has started in the demat account does make a difference to you.
Suppose the inflow is high, then first of all it will land in booking or asset management. If it comes through mutual funds, it will go directly to the MC. If it comes through direct stock, it will come to the broker. So these two become gateways for all the investors. So that has happened. So what is the reason for that?
Look, this game of yours is getting bigger. It is cumulative. The money that comes in does not go out anywhere. So it is a curative in character, it is not like that. It is not a flow. It is an acumen and because of the game, if your one crore becomes one crore and then you have become 10 crores, then you have become 10 times bigger clients.
So that is what is happening now. The game is becoming exponentially bigger. One is fresh money and the second is existing money playing out. So I think like us and overall, the game is very very large. I think we are going to See some kind of a build up like that in India we are at about 5 trillion dollar market cap we are at 45 410 lakh crores that is about 5 trillion and we are going at about % so today we are at 5 trillion l my sense by 2028 29 will be 10 trillion dollar market cap market so the size of the issue size largest company c largest company is about 6 per of market cap so 5 to 6 per so you understand there Microsoft is also 6 per on or the US market cap correct % 3 trillion n 50 trillion we are Reliance is 20 lakh crores on a to 400 lakh crore sats also 5 per so this is the biggest c so my biggest company I don't know what the name will be but after four years it will be to 8 lakh crore market cap and the largest company 40 to 45 lakh crore so you imagine What is the turnover under that?
So, all these flows. You had said somewhere that you would not be surprised if the total assets of the mutual fund become equal to the total assets in the next 10 years. So, you are saying this in 10 years too early, but that will merge, that means look at the big gap, yes, there is a big gap, so right now, there is around 200 lakh crore and we are currently at 35 lakh crore, so the gap is very high, there is a gap of about 6:16, so it will take time, the reaction is the same, so right now I understand that it is 1/3 and it will become 3/4, yes, I mean, I think that in the next 4, next 3 years, this 35 lakh crore will become around 70 lakh crore, that will be around 250 lakh crore, so it will become 1/4, in three to four years, I think it will become 1/4, so that gap ratio is such, so taking these stocks of such companies, taking a view of 8, 10, 15 years It would be smart to sit and talk about which stocks, AMC, distributors, mutual funds, sir, I think they will, the guys who are successful, what is there also that everybody is not successful, so you have to be very careful that ok external settlement is good, what is the internal settlement are they winning internally, that is very important sir, tell me that yesterday we saw the SIP data, 200 thousand crores was crossed for the first time and there were some minor blips in the market, even after that people are putting in money in a hefty manner, there is a little fear of elections, there is fear in the trading community, but a lot of money is coming, so do you think that the election matter is for a month or two, if the market gets continuity then reforms etc.
all that will happen, brother, but it takes time, you will have to pass three weeks, the 4th will come, that day will also come, what is the problem in that, on the same government in, 99.99% the same government is coming, whatever will happen There will be some tension, whatever we will see, we will see, let's wait for three weeks, brother, we cannot print everything, but apart from this, investors are not coming due to external reasons, investors are coming because the markets are doing well, now it is easy to do the KYC, you know, in five minutes you can open your account, easy of opening the account and digital infrastructure which is there, due to this people are coming, so what is your view on corporate earnings, see, corporate earnings this year right now, it is seen at 15-16, from my point of view, this sector is at 16-17, the aggregate earnings growth is good, that too in the situation, actually the whole country is busy in elections and there is a little bit of heat wave too, so I think next time suppose the monsoon comes well and the government comes back and hopefully all the fights and disputes will stop, then I think the monsoon plus continuity of the government would do wonders to this, or I would Think that earnings growth will be about more like 18 to 20 percent in the next one year.
Sir, all the consumer companies are saying something positive after many years that the earnings are recovering, the situation is getting a little better and all four of them said Britannia, Dabur, Merico, Britannia, Britannia, spoke more strongly, Britannia, the results were bad, so basically, keep Dabur, Merico, Britannia, AL earnings aside, but in the forward looking commentary, did the base effect come, the four crores of the last one that started are over and monsoon is visible ahead, so I think they must be seeing green shoots on the ground, what did you see in the commentary of SBI, which is the PSU leader, banks, bumper results, I mean the best, anybody could expect from the estimates, how much are they ahead of estimates, so these are the changes which one has to notice and bet on them, let me ask you one last question, this is The manufacturing theme is quite reflected in your portfolio and in the larger picture, do you not find the valuations here challenging or do you feel that Ani Grow is strong and will catch up with each other?
Valuations in general are expensive, there is no doubt about it, but there is just that pressure, we have no choice to go anywhere else, we will stay here, so you have to be very careful what you are buying at expensive prices, you have to buy expensive, but if you go to buy, you will not get it cheaper anywhere, so you have to be careful what you buy relatively cheap, now there is no cheap, it is relatively cheap, so one last question I would like to ask you is, what are some big trends for the next five years that you are reading, you are seeing, you meet so many companies, you do not tell them anything and go away, I mean, close to my heart is my capital market segment, the businesses there are scaling very rapidly and it is happening once in a lifetime in The reason is that that was not the case 10-15 years back it was very cyclical, you know, there was a little bit of running, then what is the reason for that, nobody in the market had the confidence that money can be made in this segment, but now the profits are becoming serious, we have asset management companies, we have two lakh to four lakh companies, a lot of companies are coming up, so the scale that is coming here, the inflow that you are getting will eventually go into SM, broking, wealth, so everywhere the amount is increasing a lot, the size of the corporate, so I think that is a segment which I think is also very important, it is very important for the country because the top down effect of the country, that is, the wealth effect, is more than the stock market, you see, last year there was a change in the market cap of about Rs 13 lakh crore, that is 35 per cent of GDP, now if you assume that 35 per cent of GDP, even if people spend 10 per cent of it, then 3.35 percent of GDP is a very good thing, so the growth that you have at 7.5 percent or 8 percent can also be 10.11 percent and this is what people are interested in, if they make a lakh rupees they spend two rupees, so whether it is 10 or 10 percent, but it will definitely be positive, that is why see, the predictions of all the economists are coming out wrong, day by day it is going down, it is because of this and I think if a good government comes, if the monsoon happens properly, now the price of oil softens a bit, if all this happens together then next year will be a bumper year, what a thing, thank you very much for talking to us today, thank you, thank you, okay, so this is a complete conversation of Ramdev Agarwal on the economy, market and the opportunities in the market for you.
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