저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
예산 이후 시장은 자본지출 중심에서 소비재·자동차·FMCG로 순환매 중이며 최근 하락은 주로 미국발 요인(트럼프 트레이드, 달러 강세, 신흥국 자금유출)에 기인한다. 미국 시장이 안정되고 달러 강세가 누그러지면 밸류에이션과 환율이 개선될 수 있다. 감세와 8차 임금위원회 기대가 소비를 자극할 것이라 본다. 중소형주는 더 크게 하락했다.
다듬은 글
I had talked to Ramdev Agarwal and Ashish Sumaiya, what is the view point of both of them post budget, how do they see the markets, please listen to it again, in this budget Ramdev ji, there is one pivot, one pivot has happened after 2021, one the budget came out, the focus was expenditure, yes and PSU stocks, defense stocks, railway stocks all started going up, today capex is down and cons is up, this is the market reaction, justified market is loved, right, okay, so what was happening was that brother, you mean where there was no capex, you brought capex there, so incremental expenditure means the incremental location became capex all the way, one way means 10 12 lakh, 3 6 lakh, 5 lakh courses, 11 12, so incrementally you created order book everywhere and made a push, so you did it in the low P of low earnings, you made it high P of high earnings, you made the P of 50 60 70 Now what is it brother, there is no further push there, Saltus, what did you do, in consumer prices always remain a little high, so the AP rim was relatively high at 40-50, but there was no earnings performance, due to which two stocks have not done well now, seriously, I mean such a huge push, so you have seen automotive, weather it is FMCG, it is Zomato, everything is like blasted, so clearly there is a rotation from a capex-oriented location to consumer- oriented allocation, this shift has happened only for an hour, as it builds further, people will read the fine print, then they will actually go to the market and see, brother, auto, FMCG and consumer are up at 4 and everything else is down from 3 to 4, up at 5, that is what I am saying, this is a very stark kind of, I mean, there is a surprise element, despite the market not being positioned for this, I feel that I am not able to understand what that means right now Why is the market down?
It means that on one hand you are going up and on the other hand you are actually doing this, so clearly there is a shift, so on one hand you are seeing a shift, so what is the other side, the manager cannot buy today, he will have to sell there first, so people are busy selling right now and it is also Saturday, so there is no dead time in the market, so you sell first and then you will play, okay, buying will come after two days because I cannot play today against what I sell today, unless I have cash balance, so this is also an issue, so I think Ashish ji, this is a very important question for the market, what will you do now, well if we talk about the last week-10 days, two-three things seem to be improving there, one is that the earnings which had started a little well have picked up and if we talk about the rupee, which was depreciating, we have seen its fall being halted, crude oil has softened, we were seeing prices of $2, now the prices have reached around $6 and the budget was eagerly awaited.
If the budget is good, will the mood improve a bit? After looking at this budget, does your sense say that the F will now return to F? If you look at it, there are two or three positive things, firstly, our rupee has depreciated to 4 paise. Secondly, the market is also down to 1215 from the previous level.
And if you talk about stocks, small caps and mid caps, then there is even more decline. And if you look at our problems in the market since September, the market problems did not start because of our own reasons. Our problems actually started from the US itself. So, Trump trade in the US, dollar upsurge, depreciation in emerging market currencies, outflow from emerging markets.
India is also a part of the emerging market and our problems are related to the US dollar and emerging markets. So, I feel that in the coming one or two months, if the US market stabilizes in a way and the dollar gives up some of its strength, then automatically our valuations and currency levels will improve.
They are attractive, but if this unprecedented market move of the US cools down somewhere, this hype about AI, talk of a big investment cycle, I feel that this is just hype in a way, if it cools down then the dollar will also cool down and automatically as the currency stabilizes, we will also see a turnaround from the FIs, so I feel that many things can improve from here Ashish ji, tell me one thing, everyone is saying that this time the tax reduction will bring money in the hands of the people, this money will come back to be deposited in the bank, will go to the market for SIP or to spend this money, I will go to a shopkeeper and say, brother, give me shoes, give me clothes, give me railway tickets, I want to go on a trip, give me money for tourist places, where will the expenditure be incurred, if it is not spent then all the hard work will go to waste, otherwise see Dimpy ji, overall if you look at it, I feel that we, I mean These are individual specific things, savings will also increase in some places because you see, doing SIP has become a normal trend in a par for course way, so those who are saving so much money can increase their SIP and at the same time, I definitely want to promote tourism because today's younger generation is into fast fashion, quick commerce, fast food and along with this YOLO means you only live once, so tourism is also there in it, so I think this will be individual specific but overall it will affect all the segments, what is the second thing, Dimpy ji, not everything is in the budget but outside the budget, you see the Eth Pay Commission has been announced and it will obviously take a year to formalize it completely, but whatever I understand, it will come with arrears, so what I think is that you should look at three things, firstly, in all the state elections that have taken place, money is being given to the weaker section of the society, Memon, one lakh crore is being given through tax cuts in the budget, which in my opinion, the announcement in the state elections is worth two lakh crore Crores in total, it is not less than two lakh crore annually, maybe it is above, so that is two lakh crore, this is a concession of one lakh crore rupees and when the commission on the eth pay will come, then the scale of the entire central government and PSUs will change and there is a massive jump in it because from 2016 onwards, it will come directly in 2025, that is, 2026, but it will come with arrears, which I understand, so all these things will affect all the segments that you mentioned in the coming time, okay, thank you very much Ashish Bhai, you gave your time, thank you very much for this also, thank you very much
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