저자: RaamdeoAgrawal&ManishChokhani · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 글로벌 탈세계화로 인도가 상대적 강세를 보이며, 향후 성장은 금융(은행) 중심이나 종목 선별이 중요하다는 관점. 거시 환경: 1990년대 이후 30년간의 세계화·저금리·멀티플 확장 체제가 끝나고 공급망이 블록화되고 있음. 인도는 이 흐름의 수혜 지역으로 평가. 지난 1년간 인도 시장은 대체로 횡보(±2%)했으나 글로벌 대비 상대 우위. 섹터 전략: 과거에는 IT→금융 교체가 잘 먹혔고, 금융이 현재 가장 큰 비중(두 사람 모두 금융 과중 보유). 다만 금융 쏠림이 혼잡해져 HDFC은행 등 대형주가 기대 수익을 못 낼 수도 있음. 은행 리스크: 국내 은행 건전성은 최고 수준. 리테일 대출은 분산되어 위험 관리가 가능하나, 대형 도매(기업) 대출의 대규모 부실 가능성은 주의. 레버리지가 위기의 진원지라는 점 강조. 금리·글로벌 리스크: 미국·유럽 금리 급등으로 정부·기업·가계 부담 증가. 양적긴축 후퇴 움직임 있음. 정치권의 긴축 인내력 부족이 위험 요인. 종목/기타: 개별 종목 선별 시장으로 복귀, 수동적 ETF 전략은 시험대에. 인도 제조·인프라 capex 확대 가능성 언급. 신흥 섹터(전기차, 재생에너지) 논의는 영상 후반부로 이어짐.
다듬은 글
it has been a tough year overall for investors who've had to deal with Falls a great deal of volatility and uncertainty overall but if you have stayed put through all of it you haven't done too badly as compared to investors around the world indeed India has been the best performing large Market this year but what next is the question hello and welcome to the somewhat special I'm Prashant with me my colleagues Soni hi hi and uh what a Diwali it's turning out to be right I mean we're celebrating Diwali properly in its entirety after what almost two three years maybe two years for sure so it's all guns blazing and we have two veteran investors I think between them they have about 70 years of experience in the markets let's welcome them on board Manisha khani director of enam Holdings Agarwal chairman and co-founder of closed captioning not available I mean I'm doing fine and let me wish all the viewers a very Happy Diwali and a prosperous new samathia and he also agreed to the fact that if last Diwali someone would have told us that by the time next Diwali comes through we'll be down just about five percent given a raging pandemic you know decade High inflation and slowing growth people who have taken it with both hands I do you feel the same I think so so first of all let me also wish everyone a Happy Diwali and just to take on from what he said if you sit back and not just about the money and the out performance of India just think if you were a girl in Afghanistan or in Iran or if you were a person in Pakistan going through floods or you were someone trying to look for Petrol in Sri Lanka or in Germany or in so you have a lot to be grateful about beyond the fact that we've reopened and come back so it's not just about money but let's just enter this year with a sense of gratitude and then coming to your point obviously if you had said you know oil will be 130 fii sales will be 30 billion there will be a war in the world where I said sell the market and run away and here we are sitting with Market probably what two percent up or down over the last 12 months so sure a lot to be grateful about this is a new one though right I mean this kind of our performance have you ever both of you ever ever seen our performance like this in your lifetimes combination he well he's when you said 70 years it's 50 there in 20 years 70 years between all of us right that would work go ahead uh no so uh my thought is that see once we broke the Berlin Wall in the you know 1990 we've had 30 years of globalization and the U.S has ruled and interest rates have only gone down and multiples have only gone up that regime is clearly over and the world's breaking up Supply chains are broken up the world's divided into cams you have you know Russia China maybe Saudi on one side and U.S so all of this is getting reset and therefore this theory that now you can just bet on a secular Trend and the FED can come and save you I think that story is over and it goes back in fact to the era we come from where it was good old stock picking and every time you wanted to make a macro case for India it was bearish and every time you wanted to make a micro case because you make money bottom up uh that's really been the story even last year if you look at what happened you could have made money in Sun Pharma and cipla and lost it in DBS and orobindo you could have made money in Mahindra and Mahindra and eicher and lost it in tata motor so it's the most hated sector was public sector and public sector Banks public sector BL a chair all I've done you know remarkably well so it's become that sort of market so you're saying it because it is so de-globalized and things are breaking up I mean that's the reason why India stands out particularly that's that's one of the reasons yeah so there's there's lots to do over here and it has always been a stock Pickers market so this trend line where you just say you can buy a country or you can buy a sector and this move towards ETFs and you know passive funds I think it's going to get severely tested now because it was easy in a unidirectional world and a unidirectional market and that's going to change and as someone running an asset management business it's great news for them because all these guys including navneet that's the time when you separate men and boys you don't need to do anything in running a passive fund but that time is here now sorry last year was to sell I.T and buy financials right and that worked out beautifully big story will be from this summer to next I think finance will continue see what happens is that uh it's like a it's a cycle in the sense that in 2000 you had the one big white okay boom where the tech actually came into Forefront first time then people over it and of course at the end whatever is good it becomes euphoric so that's what happened and we saw our Tech boom and in 2000 we collapsed and then they said let's not do take again so what they did financials so you had a Global Financial present in 2008 and then they said even Finance is bad so now let's really discover Tech now Tech came in the form of digital digital online marketing and all that in 2020 you did over did this time not in the public market in the private markets so in private Market but clearly around the digital and loss making companies and whole all kinds of you cannot imagine what the stories they gave in they are down by 80 90 percent so I don't think the world is going to again take the liquidity out there in the next one wherever this problem of liquidity or inflation is done then the world will again reorient towards the next three four five years I think they are going to go to the non-tech industry now whether non-tech will be Finance or Finance plus plus that one has to see but it looks that Finance is very large I mean bigger than even Tech so that's a good place to park yourself and all the banks are clean the books have been double severely tested I mean pre-code itself it was listed and kovid was a mother of all the tests so there was nothing there is nothing left to be written off in fact everybody's writing back you were seeing all the results so I think we have a very good and you have to land for three four years for finally you learn badly you know so you have to first start bad lending for that so the time away yeah so that is three four year cycle my sense is that Finance is the place to be just our started and I think dirtiest finance companies also do very well Manish you feel the same and beauty is becoming a bit of a crowded trade right now anyone and everyone is betting on finance I mean like him we are also very massively massively overweight in financials and the the risk in that is exactly what you said that if usually consensus doesn't work yeah but Finance is such a large field as he rightly said so in the past if you said Finance like last two three years you didn't make money in a HDFC bank or a kotak and you made it in icis and access or SBI it may be because right now everyone's so worried about HDFC bank and the merger it may be the biggest stock is going to give you the best return and you know where all of us are probably highest overweight those those may not those may not so it's very possible that happens but like I said the theme no longer you cannot play a sector in a slowing world where growth will be two percent three percent let's take it example it's not a sector which is favored by anyone really right now and the theme is stay away from exporters and so on but if you think of India is going to become from a 3 trillion to a 10 trillion dollar economy it has to be on the back of globalizers it has to be on the back of people who will take away market share from players over there now you can build a scenario and I'm not saying today is the time to you know think about it but for every Infosys or TCS which does well there may be a you know cognizant and a IBM Global which could be going decay and the sector may not do well but individual companies could completely burst out and outperform so it is that sort of period and similarly in financials it's you know banks are there we in the past you start to talk about insurance which is actually underperformed the asset management businesses their market-facing businesses which again 10 years from now if you know navneet was speaking on his way out if you'll be a 10 trillion dollar economy there has to be a big couple of mutual funds which will be a very large size and currently they all hate it because everyone thinks the you know bips are going to keep falling and everything is going to passives and ETFs there's money to be made one of the messaging right right here the opportunity size is large so you're saying it one has to be Discerning I mean it's not a sectoral call anymore I mean across the board I think across the board this 30-year period of you know take one bed sit down and relax it's gone one signal I'll tell you like in digital what happened finally it ended up with a good IPOs so let's wait for few Banks to go IQ some banking or Finance sector IPOs will happen once it is heated after C4 is you will find that it will be so much in demand when the uh this FIS of Global Investors they come back they will lap it up and at that point of time most likely maybe it is one year away two years away the IPOs will happen that will be your signal that now we're reaching somewhere you know just to complete that point on uh banking you said band lending will happen but four five years out it's not happening now so there is a clean run ahead I hope they're not doing bad lending now no is there a is there a risk because I mean money you've talked about this k-shaped economy I mean the Mars lowers the segments I mean that's kind of wiped out right the premium segments the rich are doing very well uh but where is this lending happening I mean this very strong growth happening it's happening I'm assuming at the middle of the lower end so are we start already starting that cycle or do you think everybody both of you think quickly let him go then yeah so typically the bad landing happens with the corporates the wholesale because the retail is distributed I mean now there are a lot of Credit Agencies so typically Banks and institutions they are able to figure out the risk in the retail and Retail is distributed so risk is actually not there it's within manageable uh kind of band the real problem comes with the wholesale when your project loans I'm a thousand crores two thousand single loans 50 000 study now you you're talking about very different scale whenever a capex boom comes in India I mean the private capex boom it will be not of 100 cores five hundred thousand thousand crores it will be of few billion dollars each each pieces like what we talked about chip factory of 140 000 crores like that you are talking about you will talk about 10 billion tons of single steel plant uh 20 million tons of cement plan like that it will come whenever it starts so so the risk of Bankers will go in those kind of a concentrated risk you know in the wholesale retail is very templated so uh what you're saying is it's very very distributed and very manual level it is the large losses and now which bank will underrate apart from SBI I don't see any Bank who is willing to who has appetite to write underwrite this kind of uh quickly um so slight variation on that that any lending if you're levered 12 times anything you do wrong can blow you up and every crisis in the world has been a leverage crisis it's not ever been a stock market crisis because someone levered went crazy retail was subprime retail was Mortgage in U.S and across the world and and they figured out how to blow themselves up so it's not because our last experience was we blew about infrastructure lending and so on we are still thinking of that but trust me I mean Bankers can be very creative when they want to earn their bonuses and they can blow up anything when you give them you know 12x and 20x and we're still reeling from the Credit Suisse and the Deutsche Bank episode where they're still talking of 30 40 times leverage I I wonder in opposed GFC world how are they allowed to get away with this sort of Leverage so that's there the risk again in our just to diverge a bit on our consensus call of financials is a 300 basis point interest rates have gone up in the U.S and in Europe and elsewhere it's actually a quadrupling of interest rates and they are all levered more than 300 percent of GDP so it's a nine to ten percentage point of GDP increase in interest the repercussions of that government balance sheets three percent of GDP hit to fiscal deficit three percent hit on corporates which had leveled up to do BuyBacks which had driven those markets three percent on personal balance sheets whether saving rates don't exist what does it do to those economies and how are the repercussions of that going to come and hit us I don't know but it is something serious and already you see therefore Europe has withdrawn from quantitative tightening UK has abandoned it Japan has abandoned its only U.S is doing tightening at some point when the pain hits I don't think the FED chairman is going to repeat what happened with you know in Paul Walker's days because the politicians are so weak and they have elections to win so you need a Ronald Reagan to have a Paul Walker do you think the current leadership in the world inspires the confidence that they will continue to give pain go into deprecession so that's really the risk to banking will come from Outsiders feeling scared about banking globally and therefore India must do bad I don't think Indian banking is Indian banking has never been in better shape okay so Indian balance she has never been better that's the move point that I missed all the global chaos India is sort of the Beacon of Hope all right we have to take a short commercial break but I do want to ask you folks about the new sectors that are emerging right whether it's electric vehicles renewable energy but more on that in a bit let's take a quick commercial break and be right back
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