저자: ManishChokhani·RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 인도 증시에서 PSU 은행·실적 부진 공기업·사모 은행·미디어·제조업 등 소외 섹터 중 일부가 재평가 가능성이 있으며, 특히 SBI와 민간 우량 은행 선호. [섹터 개관] - 방산(PSU 디펜스): 자산경량·고ROE 기업이 많으나 주가가 이미 많이 올라 테마화 우려. - 에너지·공기업 바스켓(Coal India, IOC, Oil India, HPCL 등): 단일 자릿수 PER로 저평가, 세계 에너지 환경에 따라 변동. [금융 섹터] - PSU 은행: 약 0.7~0.8배 PBR 수준. 장기투자보다는 트레이딩 관점. 전반적으로 선호도 낮음. - SBI: 은행권 리더로 프리미엄 평가 받을 만함, 가장 선호. - 민간 우량 은행: 이익 풀 확대 흐름 속에서 장기적으로 더 나은 투자 대상이라고 판단. - 부동산(DLF 언급): 12~14년 침체 후 최근 12개월 반등, 주가 여전히 과거 고점 대비 낮아 회복 여지 있다고 봄. [SBI 관련 추가 발언] - 은행 점유율 5~6%, 경제 성장과 금융저축 증가 시 성장 여력 큼. - MSCI 편출 시 매도 압력, Nifty 편입 가능성이 있어 이벤트성 기회로 언급(조건부 발언). [미디어·OTT] - OTT 과대평가 논의, 넷플릭스도 광고 필요성 인정. 현 모델 한계 지적. - 미디어 섹터는 PSU보다 더 소외되어 있으나 현금흐름·ROI·배당 개선 조짐, 일부 상장사 변화 기대. [제조·글로벌 공급망] - 유럽 화학 산업 쇠퇴, 중국·베트남·필리핀 대비 인도 볼륨·숙련 인력 강점 부각. - IT·화학 등에서 인도 수혜 가능, 제조업 전반 재평가 기대. 현재 이익풀은 작지만 성장 잠재력 큼. [리스크] - 인도 제조업 환경은 여전히 어려움, 글로벌 에너지·환경 변수 불확실.
다듬은 글
welcome back to our Diwali special once again here's wishing all our viewers and their families a very very happy Diwali one of the best ones that we've had in the recent past we have been in discussion with Manish shukhani and ramde Agarwal um ramdeji I wanted to ask get straight to the point you know what are the sectors to watch from here on um some of the Beaten Down sectors are coming back into action purely because of the valuation Headroom so you tell me which ones do you like yeah so I mean you can do your numbers but the most headed sectors and which are of some significance is of course one one full group is that PSU under PSU order of 45 50 companies are there that has been kind of a big disappointment and there again you know everything is not flying to some extent I think defense has defense has been their Monopoly so defenses some of the companies are very asset light very high Roe consistent companies at times cash flows are challenged because government fiscal deficit at times extends to their balance sheet but the stocks have run up a lot yeah so yeah so but I think that's a theme now in the sense that maybe it is popular right now but other other than that say a lot of large companies are there they are also trading a single digit P multiples coal India AGC uh oil India hpbp I mean entire energy basket and uh you know what a world is going through so what will happen I don't know but these are all headed companies out of the window now I mean whole India and ITC were big performers last year yeah ITC has now come back but that's a private sector so that's one segment I mean I think you have to find some large companies which are not done well because uh the the wind is going from one direction to other and Market is trying to find within financials what are the headed ones so headed ones are PSU Banks so they can be a good maybe not a very long term investing but as a trade you know you buy it less than one book like most of the banks are all about 0.7.8 books and uh except SBI is based into premium so leader of the pack is SBI so I think uh so that's a very large so you like financials and in that but not so favored is the PSU Banks so like that there are opportunities your real estate after I think 12 13 years 14 years they are coming out of this number and the last 12 months only it has just picked up his stocks have picked up a lot but it's still like I said dlf if you call it as a very large uh this thing so I remember uh in 2007 it had gone to after listing had gone to about 11 1200 rupees even with everything all clean up and still if you're about 350 400 types so what I'm saying with the sector still has that Runway and it is just coming out of uh you know Slumber but in PSU Banks I mean let's be honest right last decade PSU banks have done nothing for investors so are you saying that this is just a trading here so just a treading bed value is migrating I mean at one point of time two years back 120 of the profit was coming from private sector Banks and uh so I I still think that of the profit pool largest profit pool is in the corporate profits of about nine lakh crores largest profit police from the financials Banking and financials and of that even larger portion is for the private sector Banks so that shift of the profit share within the large profit pool is gonna have to keep happening in favor of so if you can find the private sector Bank it doesn't be well done growing at rapid Pace you know and little expensive that is a much better investment the then buying very cheap bank but gone nowhere in 10 year basis Manish you've like media as a space for a long time as well so I'll just complete the financial one and I don't normally talk stocks but I'm competitive because the best bank in India by far has been a GFC bank and it's done nothing for three years and even now it's like oh how will they grow how will they get deposits I mean with a five six percent share of a banking sector where the economy is still going to Triple over the next decade where your share of financial saving is going to go up if you're going to tell me that the largest player here doesn't know what to do and how to grow it's it's a bit of a kind of no-brainer and because there will be Force selling because their msci will exclude them and Nifty might include them and it's fabulous it's an opportunity which I hope everyone in India takes whenever it happens if it happens right I'm not hoping it does but you know that's something which you can speak on Diwali absolutely it's a national icon and one should think of it that way but come coming to your media point also I think we've spoken a lot in the past about this Ott and how over I overhyped it was and now when the leader of the pack Netflix abroad has also put in you know the hands on the floor and said we cannot survive without advertising and eventually it's another medium of broadcasting into people's homes and in India we had taken the wrong analogy we are trying to produce Game of Thrones and sell it to the poorest guy in India without collecting any money so that model is broken media is I think even more hated than psus and there is a change which is you know already visible over there uh you know two three listed companies you can figure out which one so I I think there is serious cash flows good Roi you know improving management improving payouts uh things will change over there the third thing I'll point out since you asked new sectors is when you look across the world and I go back to this globalizing theme where near Shoring foreign Shoring are the new themes you go to Europe their whole chemical industry shut down because they can't cope with the energy costs and chemicals was basically Europe and China everything had migrated textiles had migrated away if you don't want to buy from China and you cannot produce in Europe and for in any sector when you want volume and you want skill you can go for something to Vietnam you can go for something to Philippines but when you want volume you come to India whether it's for I.T whether it's for chemist chemicals and that skilled Manpower exists over here so and the profit pool as you said of that sector is very tiny today it's probably a billion or two billion dollars can these guys make 10x of this and who is the new person who comes out like if you had told us 20 years ago pet chem will thrive in India one Reliance comes out and takes the opportunity that opportunity exists in a lot of manufacturing spaces over here so that's where one would look around manufacturing is also hated in a sense in India but I I think there's only getting some love though slowly this is Hope because they deserve all these manufacturing guys deserve Padma Sharif for going out towards facing the hostile environment they should all be given awards every year actually a manufacturer was recently telling me this is one of the toughest times to keep a business going for businesses surviving in India I don't know what's happening globally but on that very optimistic note thanks a lot for joining in and wishing both of you wealth happiness Prosperity but most importantly health because we've all learned that that's all you can wish for right well with that it is Curtains Down on this somewhat special thanks a lot for watching keep it at CNBC TV 18. foreign
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