저자: 빌애크먼 · 외국인
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애크먼은 장기적으로는 미국과 시장에 강세지만 단기적으로는 신중하다는 입장이다. 포지션: 힐튼, 스타벅스, 로우스, 레스토랑브랜즈 등 기존 보유 종목을 그대로 유지하고 있으며, 펀드는 약 98% 롱 상태이고 현금 약 20%를 보유한다. 헤지: 고수익(하이일드) 지수에 대한 숏 포지션을 가지고 있으며, 레버리지가 높은 기업들이 경기 재개 과정에서 어려움을 겪을 것으로 본다. 다만 이 숏이 수익이 날지는 확신하지 못한다고 말했다. 힐튼: 과거 힐튼 등 호텔주가 0으로 간다고 공포를 표했으나, 이후 힐튼을 적극 매수해 왔다. 시장 근거: 3월 27일 이후 S&P500은 2541포인트에서 3264포인트로 약 28% 상승했다. 다만 중국 긴장, 대선 불확실성, 2차 보건 위기, 연준 양적완화 여력 약화 등 역풍 요인이 있다. 내부자 지표: 내부자 매도 대 매수 비율이 약 5:1로, 이 시대에 두 번째로 높은 수준이라는 점을 근거로 여름 이후 약세를 시사한다. 중국 리스크: 미국 내 중국 기업 IPO 금지 가능성이 거론되며, 이는 중국 기업의 자금 조달과 골드만삭스 등 월가 수수료 수입에 영향을 줄 수 있다. 영상 제작자 결론: 애크먼이 시장 하락 리스크를 축소해 말한다며 여름에 약세가 나타날 것이라 보고 있다.
다듬은 글
bill ackman is back after successfully completing one of the world's greatest trades netting him and his firm over 2 billion in profits ackman appeared on cnbc wednesday afternoon for yet another interview that drew some headlines his firm gained some serious notoriety betting against the markets before health issues destroyed economies around the world the founder and ceo of perishing square capital management revealed that he continues to own the same positions he had prior to march which included starbucks hilton restaurant brands and lows adding his hedge fund is 98 percent long meaning they're very optimistic in regards to american equities bill given where we are today uh with now covey cases uh you know what seems like a record surge are you bullish today are you bearish today and let me also ask you specifically about your positions not just your thoughts but your position so that we don't get into a thing where viewers or others are saying that you're saying one thing and doing something else you know let me be super clear you know we are long-term bullish on america we are long-term bullish on the markets we continue to own you know the same positions we owned in hilton starbucks lowe's restaurant brands we invested you know subsequently 500 billion dollars in a real estate development company with major operations in houston obviously we're bullish uh on the country um but i would say i am cautious on markets over the next period of time and uh we we have today a you know a short position in a high yield index we are bearish on highly levered companies to some extent i view that as a hedge i don't know whether we make money on it or not but the highly leveraged businesses will struggle because it's going to take time for the economy to reopen but we are about 80 percent we have about 20 cash in our publicly traded entity and we are approximately 98 long so the entity itself is leveraged the cash offsets the debts we're effectively 100 long and we have a short position in the high yield credit index which is a composite of you know with junk credits however there was some confusion after bill began to use the golden hedge fund phrase cautiously optimistic ackman added that he does indeed have a short position on a high yield index because his firm is bearish on highly leveraged companies what this essentially means is that they're betting against companies with a large amount of debt due to the fact that these businesses are at a higher likelihood of default of bankruptcy during a crisis and have a low chance of receiving a federal bailout there are a ton of high-yield index funds that ackman's firm could be targeting for their short but based on his comments it seems that this position makes up a very small piece of the company's overall portfolio regardless ackman's comments are both confusing and in a way worrisome if you pay attention to his interests and past appearances on cnbc it was not too long ago that he got emotional saying hilton stock along with every other hotel stock in the world was on its way to zero now you know take a look at hilton stock we're a major shareholder of hilton hilton is the canary in the coal mine this is an incredibly well capitalized amazing dominant global company that actually doesn't owe many hotels it just collects royalties down from like 120 to 50.
okay it's going to zero okay along with every other hotel company if you paid attention to his hell his coming speech and sold everything during that panic interview you would have missed out on one of the greatest stock market runs in history while he rode the short to the bottom and bought after closing the s p 500 since that infamous interview on march 27 2020 has rallied from 2541 points to 3 264 points representing a 28 return the truth about all these hedge fund guys that appear on stations like cnbc is that they're really not speaking the full truth their appearances are not just for show but they come with a certain bias or a goal in mind ackman manages billions of dollars and there is no way in hell his opinions are not aimed at making sure his firm is making money now i won't get full conspiratorial on you but there are a few things you have to understand when it comes to national television hedge fund managers are not acting in the interest of the public their stock market advice is in no way meant to help the average joe or mary in america at the end of the day they have their clients and their positions worked out well before they make their appearances ackman will never reveal his true thoughts on the market because it would work against his edge instead he reveals half-truths and uses his screen time to frame the market in a way that works for him and his clients let's not forget this is a man who screamed and cried everything is going to zero but i'm still buying okay it's done okay because no business can survive a period of 18 months without revenue okay and that's sick with me and that's what happens okay when if you operate the way we're operating now okay now let me give you so that's a very very bearish thought okay and i've been super bearish uh but i got bullish okay and the reason why i got bullish and i've been aggressively buying stocks including hilton today okay and i've been buying all the way down uh hilton restaurant brands starbucks you know walk your way through our pro the only stocks i'm not buying are companies were on the board and i'm restricted but the reason why is the only answer for the world is to shut the world for 30 days while he states he's bullish on america the real data suggests otherwise like i mentioned earlier the s p 500 has rallied 28 since march the market has exploded but a cooling off period in the near term is likely to occur according to many analysts there are many headwinds that will offer a dip to this rally including heightened chinese tensions upcoming election uncertainty a second health crisis poor earnings and the federal reserve slowly losing its firepower when it comes to quantitative easing one of the best indicators to see what the medium term outlook on equities represents is insider selling this is a stat attracts how many company insiders are buying or selling stocks in their very own companies the theory goes that if you're a cfo ceo cio vp or anybody important you must know more about the real outlook of your firm rather than the general public obviously if there's more selling that would indicate that the outlook is bearish and there's more buying the outlook is bullish in early march we saw an explosion of insider buying which turned out to be a correct indicator as the market rallied briefly after today we're seeing the opposite here's a clip of jim cramer explaining but we're getting over i mean we'll talk to art cassian later on this morning who's been looking at seasonality toward the end of july generally not good i noticed today natalya's jim says corporate selling insider selling to buying five to one uh is the highest that we've seen only only two times this decade has that ratio been that high is that of course insiders how much of that is modern they they gave you a a good tell back in march the insider buyers uh called that right that's just it's a bad stat i mean what can i say we got some bad stats we got uh after july the market's weak so while ackman may be voicing an optimistic tone for the future indicators are pointing to a troubling summer one big event that could shake things up is the rising chinese american tensions along with the crazy closure of the houston consulate more news is said to have a large impact on the markets the most impactful of these rumors is the banning of chinese ipos in the united states right now the united states of america has freely allowed chinese firms to open up an ipo on the u.s stock market this has netapp firms like goldman billions in consulting fees while making these chinese firms rich raising cash in the u.s is a godsend to many of these firms and if the us were to ban this from happening the door on china will be shut take a listen to another clip uh we've got the the possibility of a shot across the bow by shutting down a chinese ipo um and we've got you know this is in the pipe uh so i'm you know just call me a little more circumspect i told the guys from my uh who run the chapel trust with me let's find something to sell i want something sold today as you can see ackman isn't really truthful about all the headwinds in the u.s economy that we have yet to face time will tell if he's right we will make a recap video later in the fall to see what really happened my guess and money will be against ackman thank you guys for watching please make sure you hit that subscribe button if you enjoyed
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