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welcome back it's good to see you great to see especially on this day how you what do you make of this well um you know markets don't like uncertainty they like visibility they like Moes so markets are a little scared today to me it's an overreaction I mean Nidia decline is the worst since March 2020 and we know that that ended up being a huge opportunity for investors so uh I think it's you know it's not a fun day but uh I'd be looking at this as an opportunity I just I've been thinking about you know the people who' have been coming on today um of of all sort of professions whether it's a strategist or investor whatever analyst um defending all this or saying it's overblown how do we know what if it's not and if it isn't what does that mean we don't know if it's overblown you're right um but this is this is the nature of Technology I'd be personally surprised if Nvidia became betamax in the past week I mean that really would be the kind of change that would be required to really justify selling Nvidia here and given I think this the need for glob need for AI because of global labor shortage and Nvidia chip dominance is still strong unless a new model emerges that doesn't require gpus entirely I I I'd say that markets just generally do fire Ready Aim I mean I think it's uh I won't I won't disagree with you on that I mean that that's how the market tends to to do that but um a lot of AI was sort of sold to investors on a hope and a dream right we haven't seen in many cases the ability yet to monetize all this or at least to have a a sizable return on the investment that a lot of these hyperscalers are are make tens of billions of dollars that they're pledging to to spend doesn't that matter I mean what if some of that hope and dream just doesn't come to the degree that we thought or we decide that it wasn't worth the money that we were willing to pay for it um I mean these are fair questions if Nvidia was at 100 PE I'd probably say that there's too much good news priced in but you know the PE is around 30 times I'm not sure that that's very demanding for investors and if you look a couple years out it's in the 20s um I don't think nvidia's priced for protect for Perfection is the market itself I don't think so I mean the 10e now is is backing off to 45 so you're still paying over 20 times for a 10-year bond uh the median PE and the S&P is around 18 times yeah but I mean because it's skewed though because of the the mega caps were still like 22 is times so you know earnings have to be really good from from here on out right don't tell me about multiple expansion again driving this train you got to put up or shut up when it comes to earnings this this period that's right but you know I I've been researching companies since the early '90s so over 34 years I I never found a PE for a high quality company to be at 22 times let's say for mag 7 to be a demanding multiple again I think if if you're talking about price for Perfection it really has to be stocks where you have to back into the npv of 100% earnings growth forever what happens if at at bare minimum we are questioning NASDAQ stocks for the foreseeable future like just doesn't feel like oh tomorrow everything's going to be great kind of deal so as long as we're doing that is there enough momentum behind some of these other areas of the market that this Market as a whole can be okay well today Market bre's actually pretty good financials Healthcare Staples they're green Dows up almost 200 that's right even in NASDAQ we have stocks that are up um yeah apple Uber meta yeah and I think the year to date we have three weeks in and year-to date bitcoin's outperforming small caps outperforming financials so I think the market does look pretty healthy um I would say it's also very encouraging that if we can close on the S&P above 5881 by the end of this week it really solidifies that 2025 is going to be a a probably a double digigit gain year Tom Lee breaks his silence and talks about his honest and unfiltered opinions regarding the Nvidia stock as of recent Nvidia a Powerhouse in the tech industry saw its shares take a sharp nose dive by nearly 177% on a recent Monday triggered by China's deep seek AI that had the market a buzz could this be a sign of a shifting balance in the great AI rivalry between China and the US Tom Lee thinks we are missing something huge in the story and there is only one way to find out welcome back to investra by 3% fueled by China's AI startup deep seek Nvidia Shar is rebounding a bit this morning after wiping out almost 600 billion in market cap yesterday of course that is the biggest one-day market cap loss in US history although the rotation gym was to some areas of tech too yes indeed and remember the second worst was also so Nvidia during the watch party period uh the stock is up what I would say is there'll be heat seeking missiles coming after that stock up and if you really want to buy it wait till they send it down two three bucks uh because that's been the usual practice here I look it's no doubt about it that people just say they're they're the the blast zom I like semas I go to semas a lot from JP Morgan and he's saying listen before you just write this off remember that there are real winners um there winners and losers and he's saying that Amazon's a winner they benefit high quality they can Amazon Apple meta and some less understand Google winners but in video we point out is at David one of the shweet first asked questions later the PE based on forward earnings expectation decline toward the very low end of the range and I was watching last night uh a great video after CES uh with a CH it's one of it's on YouTube huge and I just thought you know what we're now think thinking we went from thinking it's great to thinking there's really no use to it but I keep coming back to the next generation is about robots and it's about self-driving it's not about an ass a chat GPT where it might hallucinate or not right come on let's get serious here right well I don't think that anybody is still I don't really think there's a great deal of questioning as to the longterm the long-term impact of AI Jim right what we had yesterday of course was a question as to whether or not there are going to be ways to do it more cheaply that is going to require less compute and therefore less power perhaps right and even though it was a broad sell-off in some ways it was very distinctive in terms of it was Nvidia it was it was it was broadcom it was anybody really in the data center and were providing power to the data center and the fact is Microsoft did not sell off that much alphabet did not sell off that much Amazon I mean and they're potential winners right now alphabet I don't know you know maybe not much you know if you I mean search could hurt distillation that's that's happening in other words that how they uh deep think a deep seek uh distilled from open Ai and what that means in terms of um the commoditization overall of all of these models you know I do Wonder for example if open aai was trading as a public company which it may at some point what would have happened to it yesterday I know and how much they did this steal from open I have Ben off on tonight to talk specifically about how that is the Tom Lee head of research at fun Strat Global advisers seems to think the Panic surrounding Nvidia is overblown in what can be described as investor therapy during cnbc's closing bell Lee articulated a message of calm it's an overreaction he declared comparing nvidia's decline to its tumultuous times in March 2020 Lee certainly hopes history will repeat itself nvidia's tumble is indeed daunting marking its worst decline since 2020 but calling it betamax to a rival VHS might be a stretch deep seeks break out calling into question the tens of billions of dollars big tech companies have coughed up for AI development the move lower also raising eyebrows around the valuations of these Tech leaders joining us now Deepwater Asset Management Jean Monster uh Jean I suppose the best way to ask you whether you think this is an opportunity or sort of sign of a greater risk here is to Simply ask you are you picking up more Nvidia at this point uh deep water does own Nvidia I can't say how we're trading it in the near term but I can say we do own Nvidia and deerra I think at the fundamental question there is the near-term and then there is the long-term and I just want to highlight one Dynamic around the near-term is that the Innovation around deeps is real and uh even if you think that they're embellishing some of the cost piece around that that Innovation piece is real but there's a much bigger question that needs to be asked is not about what the cost to train the previous models were but to get to that incremental step forward closer to artificial general intelligence does deep seek have some sort of a formula to do that in a cost- effective way and my sense is that they will not be able to do that so I think that the uh the spending piece is on track the reason why I mentioned there is the near term uh around how these are trading versus is kind of I'll say the near term over the next few days actually is that uh all eyes are centered on tomorrow night with Microsoft with meta Tesla's comments about the hyperscalers and most investors believe consensus is that they're going to have some sort of reassuring comments that the Market's going to be just uh that the AI trade the hardware trade the capex spending is intact and uh when that becomes consensus if that doesn't yield kind of a rebound in some of these stocks I think you could see a little bit of a near-term selloff if you're curious typically when you have these shocks in the system looking back to the run from 95 to 2000 it's about 30 days it takes from that initial shock that we saw yesterday to when things actually botom which puts us right in sync with when Nvidia is going to be reporting their quarter Lee stands firm suggesting the selloff is an opportunity waiting to be seized no one usually bets against the Giants of tech especially when there's no VHS in sight but let's not get too caught up in the tech narrative beyond the curve balls thrown by AI startups Lee turns our gaze toward the financial sector which he perceives as ripe for potential this yea how are you assessing the damage here Morgan Stanley today cuts the price Target of a number of semi stocks including Nvidia and broadcom and Marvel and Micron Nvidia goes to 152 from 166 whereas bear today says they'd be buyers of Nvidia on this dip so 152 just to use that number on Nvidia would still be a nice 20% rise from here um which would indicate that you should not sell all your Nvidia what you should do though is evaluate risk and I watched the show yesterday obviously I'm here today we are all talking about risk management and for the last two days I've been talking to a lot of portfolio managers within City Partners outside of sity Partners there are very few in fact I don't think there's anybody who said that now is the time to back up the truck on AI by the same token nobody is selling is saying sell all these names outright that's not the conversation the idea that these are bust in some sort of post 1999 way is not what people are talking about now maybe that's wrong but we'll find out what people are talking about and by people I'm referring to professional portfolio managers is this did we go into the end of last week with simply too much risk were we too Blas consider Oracle for a second one of the stocks that's in the headlines uh the last two days it shot up like a moon rocket last week on Project Stargate and now it's given that all back you have to be comfortable with the level of risk that you have now what I'm saying to you just to be explicit is most people that I'm talking to are talking about trimming risk what I'm doing in light of that is I'm waiting because we are going to get more information as the week goes on I don't want to get ahead of where we are in today's uh rundown but I will say we've got earnings coming up from two of the major hyperscalers Microsoft meta let's see what they have to say there are going to be questions about deep seek on those conference calls I will wait for that information but I think this is a time for everybody to say not should we sell these all outright but did we have too much risk Nvidia um is at the highs of the day you know as we're sitting here talking and Josh makes the case that you know some of this might be overdone to at least some degree it's trying to get 5% back of yesterday's um huge selloff has Tom Le's confidence may serve as a beacon for those willing to step into The Fray suggesting that the stocks slump signals opportunity rather than a prolonged downturn after all the financial sector's wings are primed for flight offering a New Horizon for those Keen to diversify their portfolios so what do you think does nvidia's potential rebound beckon you to invest or are you pondering deep see
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