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We are getting more and more details about the 7-day phased Iran deal. In this video, we will analyze in detail everything we know. The New York Times published some of this information. We're going to try to cover as much as we can, pulling together everything we know about this situation with Iran, because, listen, I wasn't even planning on doing another video today.
I don't look ready for a new video, but you know what? We can figure this out together. This catastrophe has been accompanied by chatter and uncertainty for too long. And I understand the frustration in this situation. Like, when are we finally going to get a deal? You already know my opinion. My view is this: we'll get a deal done before the midterm elections, it'll push the stock market to new all-time highs, and yields will drop.
So far, everything is happening exactly the opposite with profitability. We just got 5.2% on the 10- year Treasury , and the 30- year just hit its 2004 high, which is crazy. We literally went from the 2007 high to the 2004 high. In other words, things are getting worse. So, let's try to figure this out.
I wanted to create a graph of what happened over the last 30 days. I've been working on this to give everyone an idea of how it all unfolds. So, on August 25th, we heard that Bassett was going to implement an " economic D-Day." And within a week of that, we heard about the "tanker for tanker" strategy.
This is around the same time I recorded the video saying, "Things are going to get worse before they get better." So, be prepared for some volatility. And we haven't heard anything from Tehran. And this is around the same time that we heard rumors circulating in the Trump administration : " Americans will understand high gas prices." " It's okay if we're still at war with Iran when the midterm elections come around ." Which to me sounded like, well, first of all , bad, and secondly, like a bluff.
It's like, "Oh, our blockade could last forever." "Do n't worry, we're not concerned about that at all." Whatever the case , then we got the escalation we expected, and we covered the prerequisites, the process itself, and, of course, the consequences. It was between September 5 and 9 that seven tankers were attacked in one week.
The US sank five Iranian tankers after missiles were fired at several different warships, ultimately resulting in 10 ships, a base in Jordan, and Brent crude, sending the price of crude oil above $100 on the international market . And on September 7, Iran said that an agreement between Tehran and Oman was just days away from being signed on a joint payment plan for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
Then Donald Trump and his team said: "You know, we warned that this war could last beyond January 2029, and the new president would deal with it, just like the Iran hostage crisis in the 1970s, when the war ended on the day the new president was inaugurated." So what do we really have? The war will actually end right after the midterm elections.
To me, this was a signal from Trump: "Hey guys, I don't have to decide the Iran war before the election." Do n't you think the Iran war has any impact on the election and its outcome? Meanwhile, let 's be honest, they are scared to death about the election. The worst thing for the president before the midterm elections is the state of the economy.
I'm sure you've heard the phrase, "It's the economy, you idiot." Gasoline prices are at an absolute record high. The 10-year Treasury yield , the highest since 2007, is crazy . These are incredible numbers. It's just, it's just bad. It's a miracle the stock market hasn't fallen lower. Again , I want to be clear because sometimes people see the titles of the videos, don't watch them, and don't get the gist.
Therefore, I am trying to clearly outline my position. My position is that the market will grow. By the end of the year, we will reach historic highs. Again , since we have already achieved one of my goals for an all-time high. I'm not even trying to sell you anything. I have nothing to advertise in this video.
I'm just trying to be frank. I'm laying all my cards on the table, you know? Uh, and I think bond yields will go down. So, anyway , getting back to this. So I'm like, yeah, we don't care about the war, it's okay. What do we have then? Then September 10th. It's my father's birthday. Drones from Iraq hit the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
That was 13 days ago. 4 million barrels per day flow from the Strait of Hormuz through this pipeline and then into the Red Sea . The price of Brent oil soars to $109. Saudi Arabia produces about 7 million barrels per day in total. So, this East-West oil pipeline was really very important. On September 12, suddenly, the agreement between Iran and Oman, which was only days away, turns into "it will be soon, we swear." Then, on September 13, we hear from the Minister of Finance: “ Energy does not depend on the agreement.
" A deal with Iran right now is not the best bet." It's all just a position. The position is along the lines of, "Oh, we need more negotiations from the other side." They all do that. They all do it. Then on September 14th, we are told that it will take 3 to 5 weeks to restore the East-West pipeline.
Note, and this is not even in the report, this happened because the Houthis captured the port of Moha. And the Houthis say, “Hey, listen. "We now control the Bab el- Mandeb Strait, which means we will fire on any Saudi ship that tries to leave the Red Sea for China or the international market to sell oil." Which is quite interesting, because the Houthis also stated: “By the way, we are not going to attack ships of other countries.
" If the United States or even Israel wants to send ships through this area , we will not touch them." It's all about the Saudis. So the Saudis asked Donald Trump for help. At first it seemed like the US was ready to help, but then the US decided: " You know, we don't want to start another war?" We will take a back seat in this matter .
You know what? " Deal with them yourself." This actually prompted The Economist to write an article called " When America Goes Away. " They show oil fields on fire, and America packs its bags and says, “We’re getting out of here, buddy. You solve the problems of the Middle East yourself." And that's essentially what they say in the article.
They state: “The signs of an imminent decline in America’s presence are undeniable. Earlier this month, America refused to join its ally, Saudi Arabia, in launching strikes against the Houthis in Yemen, who were threatening shipping in the Red Sea. Instead, they negotiated behind the Saudis' backs to protect American ships from attack." It may seem like a small thing, but when a superpower makes deals with a rebel militia, everyone understands that it wants to reduce its commitments in the region.
In other words, Donald Trump understands that he has gotten into a little trouble that is having a very bad effect on his approval rating and jeopardizing the health of the entire economy. Now, so you can see this visually, as we talk about this, the Persian Gulf is right here. Imagine the Persian Gulf trapped.
Persia, Iran, understood? Iran is stuck. Quagmire. Of course? The Persian Gulf, that's how I remember it. The Persians were stuck. Of course? I think of Persia as well, like in Age of Empires, big elephants, big, bad at getting through narrow places. Stuck. Sorry, sometimes I have to boil it down to this, people get mad at me for it.
Actually, I think it's just a clear way to put it. I have to reduce it to the level of elementary basics, and then it sticks in my memory. And I'm not calling you that, I'm calling it that, okay? Just so we can clear this up. I have to , I need to somehow, how am I going to remember all this ? Uh, hey, sometimes little tricks like that work.
Uh, anyway, there's a lot of talk about, uh, investing in oil infrastructure right here, uh, in this particular city. Er , and er, the benefit of this is that the Saudis, the UAE, and Oman can now route oil through er, er, this port, which will allow them to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. See this little shark?
I look at this island like a little shark. Larak Island, and here you have Hormuz Island. You see, here is Larak. So the reason I call it the little shark is because the Iranians want ships to go through the Persian Gulf, right past the shark's mouth , so the shark can take a bite, tax it, uh , and move on out to sea.
And so they have control over it, whereas the United States, you know, the United States is working here to get everyone through the southern side, which is, uh, the Omani side. Good. So, this leads to the Gulf of Oman. And then in the Indian Ocean we have a little island called Diego Garcia, which is a pretty important island where we rent some space because, look at this, beautiful shots of bombers, jets, and, uh, see these hangars right here?
Wow, that's pretty good resolution here. But anyway, see these hangars? People think that's where the B-2 bombers are stationed, which, uh, eventually, um, operated in Operation Midnight Hammer. So that's pretty interesting. This gives you an idea of the state of affairs here. This is Yemen. This is where the Houthi terrorists are located.
And the United States essentially made a deal with these guys: not to attack American ships until the Americans helped, uh , Saudi Arabia beat the Houthis, because right here is the Bab el- Mandeb Strait. This is a fairly narrow region, and the Moha area, right here, is where all the roads lead; it is quite close to, since there is a lot of mountainous terrain, quite close to the strait that covers the Red Sea.
Of course? So, it gives an idea of how America is essentially retreating because we are stuck in such a big quagmire. We have also become a very large exporter of oil today, although we used to be an importer. Fracking was part of that advantage, or what led to it, in part. Now it also means that China actually benefits from the Strait of Hormuz working well and stability in the Middle East .
The less terrorism in the Middle East, the lower oil prices. And so the United States is kind of trying to clear the territory to almost help China, which is kind of crazy. So this is where I think Donald Trump realizes, man, this is so much work just to keep them from getting nuclear weapons, which is fine, but maybe we could actually negotiate a deal like what Obama called the JCPOA, where we actually had UN inspectors, allowing some form of peaceful enrichment program, but we were going to inventory every damn piece of uranium that you produce, so that we know where the highly enriched uranium is, where it's going, and where it's traveling, and we're constantly checking it.
Is it possible to have a secret object ? Sure, but then you'd also be breaking the agreement, and it would be exposed by the CIA and other resources or something like that. So we like to know what's going on. It's just good to have inspectors from within. We lost it, obviously. Now we'll probably come back to that.
Why? Because, well, Iran is proposing to stop the war for seven days, and that would reflect some of the commitments from the memorandum of understanding, which says the Strait of Hormuz will open after the seventh day. Araghchi is one of the most militant members of the Iranian regime. He is not as belligerent as all the IRGC members, or rather, some of them, who like to launch mines from MLRS into the Strait of Hormuz or fire missiles at more ships.
Remember, this is a very fragmented leadership style. There is no real chain of command here. You have leadership in various areas, scattered like a spider's web. The same with terrorist cells. These are disparate groups. This is how they manage it. This makes such a country a very difficult target, because even if you remove the leaders, it won't change anything.
These separate cells operate independently. And that's why it's so difficult to reach an agreement that actually works. However, in this draft agreement, which the Iranians have now sent to the United States, the US would unfreeze Iran's assets, about $12 billion, lift oil sanctions, and lift the Iranian blockade.
Well, they need to recharge, right ? They need supplies, they need petroleum products to come in so they can reload and make more weapons. This is a cynical view of things. How durable will the next deal be? Scott Bessent says he guarantees its implementation, but I'm definitely not going to have any illusions.
But let's go back to timing for a moment. So, we were here, where, if you remember, we were told that it would take 3 to 5 weeks to get the pipeline back up and running on the East Coast. Yes, that would take us, well, let's see, 3 weeks—that's about the first week of October. The pipeline is already operational again.
It will be operating at most of its capacity by the end of the week. So, obviously, this whole 3-5 week thing was just propaganda, saying, " Oh, they did so much damage. They really pushed us back." Just kidding. In any case, on September 16, the proposal, approved by the Supreme Leader, was sent to Washington via Qatar.
Then we had seven conditions for negotiations. It was initially presented as us wanting only three things publicly, and then we ended up with these seven items in total, which is less compared to the 14 we saw before. So, the original memorandum of understanding contained 14 conditions, and it did not include Lebanon, which is one of the problems.
Israel is currently in the UN, and Lebanon's involvement is very important. So the fact that this deal is potentially being made at the UN is helpful because Bibi is there. And look, one of the conditions here is that within 7 days all hostilities must cease, including Lebanon. Friends, we have been living in a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon for about a year, with which there is actually no need to sign a truce, because your problem is with Hezbollah terrorists.
And, you know, between Lebanon and the Gaza Strip, where there is also supposedly a ceasefire, Israel somehow killed another 1,100 people. Now, of course, some Israelites died too. Israel claims, "Man, we still have to clean up the remnants of the terrorist groups." So, I'm not going to take a position on who is right and who is wrong.
I'm just saying that this is a difficult condition if Israel doesn't agree. And Israel says today: "There is no agreement." This is all fake news. There is no agreement. Okay. Okay, that's not good. But the framework of the agreement that we see from Iran and the United States is, for now, postponing negotiations on some of the most difficult points, and we are seeing some softening.
I think it's because both sides realize , "Damn, we thought we could keep this blockade going forever from the US, but our bond market and oil markets are just collapsing." We are simply being destroyed. On the other hand, I think the Iranians are saying, "We can survive the blockade." And then they realize, " [ __ ], it's not just a naval blockade, it's all the trucks that can't enter or leave Iran, and now the planes that can't fly." Both sides say, "This sucks." 10-year Treasury bonds are soaring.
There is nothing in Iran. This sucks. Both parties stand to gain significantly from the deal. That's why I'm so confident that the deal will happen. Then all 27 Iranian airlines were grounded. We've already talked about this. Donald Trump says: " We'll make a deal or we'll destroy them." You know, it's going to be, "Oh, we'll make a deal after the midterm elections." " And then it turns into, 'Oh , we talked to them for 3 hours.'" And the next day: "Oh, we talked to them for 2 hours." We have great negotiations.
You know, we could actually close a deal in the next few days. Uh, and then the Iranians say, "You know, how about opening Hormuz for 7 days?" Oh, we're kidding. "This is fake news." Fars denies this. You know, because people hear these rumors, Reuters gets these rumors about deals that are being discussed.
And then publicly, people in offices say, "I, I, I have n't heard anything about that." This sounds like fake news. Meanwhile, in fact, this is exactly what is being discussed. This is often how this "fake news" works. Actually, they are not fake. They just leaked, and shouldn't have come out so early.
But in any case, this doesn't mean you should believe all mainstream media, obviously. We should be skeptical about everything, but on September 22, the Saudis already restarted the East- West pipeline. Significant, significant goals, significant flows planned for Saturday. 5 weeks turned into 12 days.
Yes. And then suddenly we have Bassan on Fox saying there are three ways this is going to end. The regime is collapsing. This hasn't worked yet. There will be an uprising. This hasn't worked yet . Or there will be an agreement that Iran will abide by, and Bassan says they will guarantee that Iran will abide by that agreement.
I don't know how they do it. I think they need to save face because there have been so many U- turns . But anyway, then the president, after Donald Trump called Iran the bully of the Middle East, the president of Iran probably rewrites his speech and says, "We are the ones being bullied. We are the ones whose families were just killed at a wedding and 123 schoolchildren.
"We are the ones who are really the victims of terrorism." And then it's just: "Wait, who's David and who's Goliath?" Do you know? This is kind of crazy. They are really good at evoking empathy as the lesser side. Of course, it doesn't help when you chant "death to America," but that's another topic.
It's actually the same topic, but you know what I mean . Anyway, then, you know, Bassan is back on Fox regarding guaranteed compliance. This was published today, so it's actually the same interview right here. Then Araghchi makes an official statement, although the media denied it, as did Israel, but Araghchi says: "Yes, no, we proposed a 7- day plan: you give us our money, lift the sanctions, the blockade, lift the oil sanctions, and then in 7 days we will open the Strait of Hormuz, and then we can talk about the nuclear program." And we'll talk about Pickaxe Mountain.
This is why Donald Trump hasn't bombed Pickaxe Mountain yet. Because CSIS tells us that the likelihood of enrichment activity there right now is low, which is similar to construction work, but there is no urgency about enrichment. Donald Trump knows this, so he uses it as leverage. Okay , you want to use Pickaxe Mountain—let our inspectors in.
Wouldn't it be much better to negotiate inspector access to Pickaxe Mountain when we have very little information about what's inside? Of course. So when you start to put all the context together, it all makes more sense to me that a deal is inevitable. “Don’t rush into a deal,” Rubio says. This is "We need patience." This is what he said in the last 24 hours.
He said, "Oh, yes, there will be a deal." This will take time. "This will take some time." This is normal. Then we have Aragchi saying, "You know, it would actually be better for us to make a deal before the midterm elections ." Yeah, because they're suffering too, dude . Everyone suffers. So , this gives us an idea of what's going on here.
And I think that's very, very helpful, because when we put all of this together and know what's going on in Iran, we realize that both sides have serious benefits from making a deal. When both sides have serious advantages in making a deal, I think there is almost no doubt why we would not reach an agreement.
So , again, these are facts. Now my opinion, I will be very clear about this. I think we'll get a deal. Not only do I think we'll get a deal, I think this Iranian situation will just fade into the background. It would be like the Gaza deal, where they say, "Yes, yes, yes, we're talking about a nuclear program." But the nuclear talks could drag on for the next 2 years, and the next president will eventually take power.
Will we get any inspections during this time? I don't know. Am I worried that Iran will get the bomb during this time? Damn it, yes , I'm worried. So, I guess we can only trust that the CIA and CSIS will be watching this , even though it's not a government organization. And when we put it all together, okay.
Maybe the next president will actually end this war. But, you know, through final negotiations. But in the meantime, oil prices could come down, bond yields could come down, and a lot of the pain that we're feeling in the markets right now, and people who are, you know, feeling it because of inflation, whether it's in Iran or in the United States, a lot of that could start to subside.
Then it would actually take the pressure off the Federal Reserve to factor in five damn rate hikes, which is just crazy. These are 10-year Treasury bonds. This is on the chart for three months . It's like a meme campaign. This is madness. I wrote about it on Twitter. You can follow me there: Ryan Kelly. Ken. I'm going to bed. See you later. Goodby.
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