저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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한줄결론: 캐시 우드는 혁신 성장주의 장기 상승을 낙관하며 단기 인플레이션 둔화와 디플레이션 전환을 전제로 1~3개월 내 반등을 기대하고, 비트코인은 2030년 130만 달러 목표를 제시했다. 전략 및 성장주 전망: 금리·인플레 우려로 성장주 전략이 타격을 받았으나 다섯 가지 혁신 플랫폼의 폭발적 성장은 지속된다고 주장했다. 글로벌 공개주식 시장에서 파괴적 혁신 시장은 약 8조 달러이며 향후 8~10년 내 200조 달러 이상, 전체 시장의 약 60%로 확대될 것이라고 전망했다. 포트폴리오 운용: 플래그십 전략 보유 종목을 55개에서 33개로 줄여 최고 확신 종목에 집중했다. 고점 대비 큰 폭으로 조정된 상태이며 5년 투자 기간을 전제로 한 깊은 가치주가 많다고 설명했다. 헤지는 자신들의 역할이 아니라고 밝혔다. 인플레이션 전망: 8월 중고차 가격 하락 등을 근거로 8월 인플레이션이 뚜렷이 하락할 것으로 봤다. 근원 인플레이션은 5.9%에서 6.1%로 오를 수 있다고 언급했다. PCE 디플레이터는 4.6%로 하락 중이며 향후 3~6개월 내 3%대, 나아가 2%대까지 내려갈 수 있다고 전망했다. 경기 전망: 재고 침체(inventory recession) 성격으로 2008년 같은 심각한 침체는 아니라고 봤다. 유럽 에너지 가격 충격과 중국 둔화를 언급했고, 내년으로 예상되는 경기 침체보다 올해 말부터 시장이 반등할 수 있다고 봤다. 연준 전망: 3~6개월 내 디플레이션이 가시화되면 연준이 정책을 급격히 전환(피벗)할 것으로 전망했다. 연준의 이중 책무 중 물가 안정 초점은 긍정적이라고 평가했다. 비트코인: 금리 인상기에 비트코인이 50% 이상 하락했다고 짚었다. 디플레이션 주도 침체로 기업 현금 보유자들이 변동성 자산에 투자하지 않을 수 있다는 분석을 소개했다. 2030년 목표가 130만 달러(현재 약 2만 1천 달러)를 제시하며 강한 긍정 입장을 보였다. 출연자 전망: 캐시 우드는 인플레 둔화와 피벗이 성장주에 긍정적이며 직원들도 자사주를 늘렸다고 밝히며 확신을 강조했다.
다듬은 글
well I think our strategy has been hurt very very much as have most growth strategies by the fears associated with inflation and higher interest rates uh and as I I mentioned we think that's going to turn around uh we see the growth coming out of these five platforms these are five Innovation platforms these are exponential growth trajectories uh and we've faced a lot of covid related comparison issues in stocks like Roku tele dock zoom and so forth so there's been a lot of confusion on a very short-term indicators in the market but the explosive growth is there it has happened and we think it's going to continue we see that in the global public Equity markets uh truly disruptive innovation which is all we focus on is priced at roughly eight trillion dollars in value in the markets today that number we believe is going to more than 200 trillion million during the next uh during the next eight to ten years so it's going from less than 10 percent of the global public Equity Market to what we believe will be 60 and the reason we believe that it will move to that level is because there's going these platforms are going to disrupt the traditional World Order in a way like we have never seen before we were not around in the early 1900s when telephone electricity and the automobile disrupted the existing world order these are five platforms not four not three and they involve 14 different Technologies so we do extensive research I think we do the best research if I might say because of our sole focus on it and we give that research away because we want people to understand how their lives are going to change and how their children's grandchildren lives are going to change and how important it is for all of us to get on the right side of change thank you arc invest CEO and CIO Kathy Wood shares her outlook on the current situation of the U.S economy Global recession and peaking inflation Kathy also updates about the possibility of a significant policy pivot by the FED in the next three to six months makes a big prediction about the future price action of Bitcoin would you put new money to work on Bitcoin today we are very positive in Bitcoin we have uh we have in our big Ideas 2022 which you can find on our website we have a price Target uh in 2030 of 1.3 million dollars it's only 21 000 now and we can show you the building blocks how we get there yes well we think if we're right about what's going on in the economy right now and inflation's going to come down uh fairly dramatically that will be a big positive uh for growth stocks uh the the compression in our performance what we do during periods like this is we concentrate our Holdings towards our highest conviction name so we have taken our Flagship strategy from 55 names down to 33 names we did the same thing during covid but that was just a one month worth of pain and it was awfully painful over a month and from the lows in covid we um we moved up with in the span of less than a year by 360 percent so that was uh probably uh you know ahead of its time we've corrected uh tremendously tremendously and now we have many what I would consider deep value stocks if you give us a five-year investment time Horizon in terms of hedging what I just described that concentration strategy people would say oh well my goodness you're taking more risk no we're not we we have a scoring system and which naturally takes us towards higher scoring names during Corrections uh so it's a it's kind of a pruning of the portfolio and in terms of hedging we that's not what we do that's what asset allocators do that's what advisors uh do we are a slice of their portfolios and they will they will position depending on clients risk tolerance they will position us anywhere from two percent of their portfolios towards ten percent and as I said I think in the broad-based benchmarks uh our strategies our stocks will end up at more than 60 so we are in very early days and that's why we encourage our investors as well to get on the right side of change it's been awfully painful and believe me I do feel it and we're completely committed we actually uh increased our own ownership of our firm in the middle of all of this that's how high our conviction is and almost every employee participated in that Kathy Wood CEO of investment management firm Arc invest is convinced that August inflation will drop convincingly from July Kathy said used car prices dropped four percent in August roughly 50 percent at an annual rate have dropped 10 percent since peaking in January and if electric vehicles are as disruptive as we believe could be cut in half hitting lows last seen during the GFC in late 2008.
core inflation however which is the change in costs of goods and services but does not include those from food and energy is expected to show an increase from 5.9 percent year-over-year to 6.1 percent if this occurs coinciding with a drop in headline inflation then the direction of the market will be very hard to predict as core inflation is a key metric that the Federal Reserve pays attention to what we think profits are going to be under tremendous pressure and until some of these cost declines make it through and inventories are cleared now now we do not think this will be anything like 0809 which I know many people fear we think it's much more of an inventory recession and a drag from the rest of the world Europe being crushed by Energy prices China being or readjusting to quote unquote common Prosperity so I think it'll be more of an inventory recession and you know there's been a lot of denial that we are in recession we think we are we think it's an inventory recession and that will be coming out next year whereas many people uh forecasters are saying we'll be going in next year so I I actually think the market will be looking up uh as as we're exiting this year typically rate hikes have been bad for Bitcoin this year in context the period of the FED raising its Benchmark rates from near zero in March 2022 to 2.25 to 2.5 percent in August 2022 has coincided with Bitcoin price declining over 50 percent to this point the labor sector has been very resilient nonetheless the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics report shows that the jobless rate has risen to 3.7 percent from 3.5 percent in August yes um well he repeated what he said in Jackson Hole essentially they're focused only on prices now they have a dual mandate employment and prices frankly I'm happier that they're focused on more of a price rule so that's good but I think the reason for the pivot is going to be a massive amount of deflation uh in the system it's already here if you look at commodity prices the gold price for example it actually peaked in August of 2020 team and it's at the lower end of a two-year range while copper has broken down oil is breaking down Lumber has crashed uh iron ore as well uh Freight rates out there are suggesting that the supply chains are loosening up quite significantly the rates are coming down so we've got deflation in the system and and one more thing we also see a massive inventory overhang around the world you've got European recession China in recession effectively and here in the United States retailers are bulging with inventories which will have to be cleared with discounts so we think we're going to see some major downside surprises in inflation during the next three to six months but fed chairman Jerome Powell has asserted that the Central Bank could hike rates further to bring inflation down to their preferred Target of two percent as of July the U.S consumer price index or CPI was 8.5 percent year over year the August and inflation data is scheduled to release on September 13th with a Reuters poll of economists predicting it would fall to 8.1 percent citing a recent drop in Energy prices that is still far from the fed's two percent inflation Target which will lead to a hard Landing thus a hawkish Fed could usher in Rising joblessness and an economic recession similar to what musk predicts about deflation so the FED is looking at the pce deflator which peaked in February at 5.3 percent it's down to 4.6 percent and we believe we've already seen some negative numbers nobody believes them we do and we believe we're going to see some more negative numbers during the next three to six months so I wouldn't be surprised to see it well down into the threes in the next three to six months if not into that two handle and I think if we get enough sequential declines that the FED will change its tune quite dramatically Bitcoin could feel the pain of a deflation-led recession with analysts suggesting that companies with cash holding would not dip their toes in a volatile asset until the economy has bottomed from 2020 to 2021 there is a large number of new entrants in the space of digital assets which pretty much doubled the total hotlings and treasuries and as the market slowed down everything stopped so what do you think about Kathy Woods Bitcoin prediction ] thank you
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