저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 현재 경기침체 진행 중이며 주식시장은 바닥을 다지는 과정이라고 주장하고, 디플레이션 신호가 누적되면 연준의 피벗 기대가 살아날 것으로 본다. 경기·인플레이션: 경기침체가 맞다면 상반기 실질 GDP 역성장 폭이 보고된 것보다 더 클 수 있으며, 계절조정 왜곡으로 지표가 왜곡됐을 가능성을 제기한다. 공급망 문제는 2020년 4월 이후 2년 이상 지속되었고 인플레이션 압력은 빠르게 해소될 것으로 본다. 시장 흐름: 6월 중순~8월 중순 랠리는 베어마켓 랠리였고 현재 되돌림 중이다. 연준이 디플레이션을 언급하며 피벗할 것이라는 기대가 랠리 배경이었으나 잭슨홀 이후 기대가 꺾였다. 연준은 매파적 메시지를 유지할 것이다. 주식 밸류에이션: 이익은 크게 하락할 것으로 보며 ARK 전략은 이익률 하락기에 강하다고 주장한다. 금리 전망에 따라 밸류에이션이 좌우되며, 베어는 1970년대식 인플레이션과 밸류에이션 하락을 주장한다고 언급한다. 미국 vs 글로벌: 유럽과 중국은 경기침체로 보며 미국이 변수다. 금 -10%, 구리 -21%, 목재는 고점 대비 급락, 유가 전년비 +19%, 옥수수 +24%, 비트코인·이더리움 전년비 -60%. 종목: ARK는 줌 비디오를 매수했고 진코바이오웍스를 추가 매수 중이다. ARKK는 올해 60% 하락했고 인버스 ETF 자금 유입이 늘었다는 언급이 있다. 특정 한국 종목에 대한 언급은 없다. 출연자 전망: 우드는 바닥 형성 과정이며 디플레이션 신호가 쌓여 연준 발언이 나올 것으로 전망한다. 소매업체 가격 인하 가능성과 단기 반등 후 재하락 가능성을 언급한다.
다듬은 글
so uh in my career um during most uh difficult times in the market uh recession times i know there's a big debate as to whether we're in one or not and i know there are perhaps political dynamics at work suggesting that no one wants uh a recession in a midterm election year uh but we believe we're in a recession and i think the evidence is accumulating that the statistics that were getting fed day to day and to which the market reacts so violently may be very distorted uh by seasonal factors and i'll get into that in a moment but if we're right then the downturn during the first half of the year to quarters of negative real gdp growth that downturn might be worse than has been reported so i'll get into that in a little bit and it means that the inflationary pressures that are concerning the fed are probably going to unwind now very quickly it is true the last year against our expectations has been a very difficult one when it comes to inflation i never dreamed given all the new technologies in place to take care of these things that the supply chain issues that started in april of 2020 would extend for more than two years it's still pretty shocking to me arc invest ceo and cio kathy wood updates about recession economic indicators fiscal policy inflation and innovation kathy also updates about her outlook on cryptocurrencies and how the price fluctuations will affect the asset class interprets the market signals and explains how innovation is shaping our future well uh we had a little reprieve from june uh mid-june to mid-august in terms of the equity markets at least and and now we're having a test of uh of that rally uh so we'll talk a little bit about that um we do think we're in a bottoming process i know it's frustrating and uh i've been in many of these markets these are bear markets anything down more than 20 percent is a bear market and uh at the at the turning points it just seems so frustrating um but stick with me as i'm going through the usual drill here and um and uh i want to give you a sense of why we think we're bottoming and what the tug of war is out there and how the evidence is uh piling up that we are probably moving into a deflationary environment uh we're getting real numbers now this is not just a hypothesis kathy woods fans turned tail last month pulling out the most money from her flagship fund in nearly a year as it continues to flounder the 8 billion arc innovation etf saw 803 million dollars rush out in august the biggest monthly outflow since last september the exchange-traded fund saw daily inflows in only six days last month the surge of outflows underscores a stark shift of sentiment after money flowed in for much of this year even as the innovation themed fund plummeted investor loyalty may now be reaching a limit with the etf down 60 percent this year compared with the s p 500 index's 18 percent drop and prospects dim for a revival anytime soon we had a nice rally some were calling it a bear market rally uh 23 i think on the s p 500 from mid-june to mid august and now we're giving back um we thought one of the reasons for that rally was um was that the fed was going to pivot and that the market seeing the deflation in the pipeline assumed that the fed would start talking about that deflation instead we got jackson hole and now the market's relapsing we do think we're in a bottoming phase here because we think we're going to see a lot of deflationary signals that will at some point get the fed to talk about them uh it doesn't want to talk too soon it doesn't want to give anybody any indication that it it it's anywhere near pivoting it wants to sound very hawkish wants everyone to believe that they're going to be as tough as volcker was in order to get to two percent faster than would otherwise be the case you know it could be a lot less than three percent if some of these big retailers start slashing sl i mean slashing they need to uh prices uh in order to clear the shelves and put in holiday merchandise so we'll we'll see in the next few months uh as to markets now so starting with equities uh uh we've talked a little bit about that um as usual equities are very dependent on a couple of things profits and valuations now we think profits are going to be hit hard here more the cyclical part of the world uh our strategies are not biased cyclically if anything they're biased completely in the opposite direction and and they tend to do well when overall profit margins are coming down now profits in the gdp accounts looked like the early indications were that they were down significantly quarter to quarter in the second quarter it seems as though they moved up to an all-time high uh what i have found with these metrics around turning points these metrics and especially employment is the revisions if we're really in recession the revisions are extreme if you listen to all of the companies reporting you would not believe that profits are up many of them are down and down in a very big way so again this dependence on economic indicators which may be distorted by seasonal factors gone wild during covid and an inability to adjust them accordingly um could be distorting some of these numbers uh the second variable valuation um very dependent on interest rates which in turn are dependent on inflation and you know what we think but the bears think we're going back to a 70s style inflation and and valuations dropping to those level that is the essence of the fight taking place this tug of war as we tried about bottom up in the market bottom out wood and her team have kept their theme of disruptive technology while managing ark that had helped assets in the fund stay sticky earlier in the year since investors knew what to expect with ark but woods picks have also contributed to the funds continued under performance as red-hot inflation and monetary tightening batter growth stocks and we do think europe's in recession think china's in recession so the u.s really is the swing factor here on a year-over-year basis gold prices are down 10 percent copper prices are down 21 lumber price lumber price had gone from 250 dollars per uh unit of whatever sheath um and all the way to 1700.
now they're back down to 486 and on a year-over-year basis lumber prices are down no no wonder housing is in a world of hurt energy and food are the sticklers here again russia ukraine um right now oil prices on a year-over-year basis are up 19 but if we stay around this level given what happened last year to prices uh we could be flat by november on a year-over-year basis corn today is up 24 we know the drought and um and bad yields are contributing to to uh the ukrainian problem uh we know crypto prices they're down 60 both bitcoin and ether on a year-over-year basis uh and it does it is interesting that they're trying to stabilize in this range while other commodity prices continue to capitulate arc last month snapped up shares of zoom video communications inc as the video conferencing company plunged to pre-pandemic levels the fund has also been buying jinko bioworks holdings inc which has fallen 69 this year some investors may have seen last month as a good time to get out as the etf rebounded from its june low up until mid-august but in another indication of bearish sentiment towards woods flagship the axs short innovation daily etf which delivers the inverse daily performance of arc saw its biggest monthly inflow since january so do you agree with kathy's outlook on recession ] you
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